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#1462662 - 27/04/2018 19:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Re that cold blast -

"Friday 4 May
SummaryMin 5Max 5Snow shower or two. Windy.Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 70%
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 45 to 55 km/h tending northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning."

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mounthotham.shtml
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1462688 - 28/04/2018 18:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'd say start the thread DS, this stage at least a decent change for the West of the state:



Might be a bit of coldie storms with the initial front.

....at this stage by no means the Autumn break, (certainly not for Gippsland).

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#1462693 - 28/04/2018 20:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The Front will be pushed away quick in 48hours wind swing anticlockwise NW/W/SW to SE/E direction.

Weak cold uppers will decline slowly bring frost until High pressure warm up the uppers not bring below -0 degrees average about 5c.

We still have W.NW jet stream for another week so it might be around comer for SW jet stream to pin somewhere between WA to AFRICA

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#1462737 - 29/04/2018 18:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree CA.

Latest GFS run:



Second front might be the first hint of a snow season?


Edited by Petros (29/04/2018 18:53)

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#1462761 - 29/04/2018 19:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Petros, nice to have snow, but chart up dated..

I am very surprised how warm air is sitting in outback NW Australia will moving to SE Australia next Wednesday May 9th...




Edited by chasers addict (29/04/2018 19:56)

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#1463008 - 03/05/2018 13:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
After this quick cold front system May 4th low pressure, High Pressure keeping returning too long is the jet stream is blame.

We have two westerly jet stream of North and South.

North jet stream needs move more North as South jet stream is trapped far South in bright that's how we not get any cold uppers.

North Jet stream brings more dryer air from NW Australia.

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#1463784 - 13/05/2018 18:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
One massive mid winter like high arriving over Aus for the outlook, hopefully a few grazing showers along the southern coastal areas my defer the frosts in Gippsland until next weekend?

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#1463855 - 14/05/2018 23:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting warmth for WA as cut off low ahead of WA dragging NW heat by May 24th only 8 days to Winter.

See what happens when High Pressure moves East bring warmth to SE by NW winds, still too early depends on jet stream.

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#1463868 - 15/05/2018 09:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Since that last cool lump of weather Winter is well heralded now around here, our max temps are from Today and fwd - 16C, 15C, 16C, 17C, 16C, 17C & 18C.

Even though cool max's, days are mild and nice to work in, haven't had heater on last few nights either.

Follow up rain for farmers in a week or so would be good, bit like a cash deposit banked for Spring.
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#1464703 - 31/05/2018 17:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Next weeks change following yet another early prolonged high pressure system is starting to look interesting.

Ignoring the nice looking low pressure system that impacts Perth (but will glide away down W of Tassie), the fact that a NW cloudband is indicated on the longer term models to deliver moisture to SE Aus for several days post the low's SE'ward demise is of interest! The high looks to sit off in the Pacific as a blocking system, this could allow the moisture to linger about Vic longer than previous systems.

Early days - worth a thread to follow the models as they work out what will evolve IMO!

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#1464718 - 31/05/2018 21:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very odd first week of Winter June is average 14c drop every night out of 17c day time sunny pattern and where is heavy snow up High Mountains looks like in July or August hope so..

As night time has not gone under below -0c yet.







Edited by chasers addict (31/05/2018 21:10)

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#1464735 - 01/06/2018 09:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Next weeks change looking more interesting on last nights model runs.

The large high over Aus early in the week looks to retrograde SE'wards to below NZ, unusual to see high pressure to that extent down there.

The low that had looked set to be mature over Perth low looks to hold together and make it all the way to Tassie, the NW moisture infeed remains a possibility.

I'm interested!


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#1465220 - 08/06/2018 08:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Sun 10 -> Tues 12/6 looking calm but cool here, these highs are certainly blocking our possible rain systems as they slip south of us.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1465272 - 08/06/2018 21:26 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2518
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like Monday start see some winter thunderstorms from cold front and next system next Thursday 8th cold uppers to snow high mountains Victoria until Monday 11th clearing to frost

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#1465320 - 09/06/2018 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, looks to be cold, showery (alpine snow) for much of next week. Worthy of a thread as the Yarrawonga region looks to be good for 35+mm tally by next weekend?

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#1465363 - 10/06/2018 17:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a cut-off low system will pass below Vic later this coming week, handy for rain along the SW Vic coastal fringe, very handy for northern area (Corowa to Alexia country), and very very handy for snow (coming in from W then SW into next weekend).

The majority of the state remains waiting, waiting, waiting.......

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#1465399 - 11/06/2018 09:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Our best drop looks to be next Sat. P., (ACCESS modelling), at this stage.

Fog is still hanging around in Sale, a cool 4.2C @ 0730hrs, will be OK for outside activity later this AM, almost calm.

Bairnsdale -0.3C at 0700.....East Sale obs still out, not even on the list of Vic BOM sites.

Another BOM thing - ACCESS now has a VIC 7 Day chart - very handy.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/announcements/


Edited by samboz (11/06/2018 09:38)
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#1465411 - 11/06/2018 13:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6990
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the tip Samboz - will check it out.

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#1465451 - 12/06/2018 09:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: Petros
Thanks for the tip Samboz - will check it out.


It was there when I found it P, gone now.

Maybe a product available to those that use it commercially and BOM had settings mixed up when I saw it.

Where has East Sale obs gone, any idea ?


Edited by samboz (12/06/2018 09:50)
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1465463 - 12/06/2018 11:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3785
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Not sure what the story is with East Sale on the current observations page - it is still reporting normally to the Bureau database, and to other products on the external Bureau website like the 9am bulletin and the daily climate data file (the daily weather observations pages haven't been updated because of a separate problem).

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