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#1465103 - 06/06/2018 12:30 SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Models are getting quite keen on our first decent widespread rain event for the year as a NW cloud band moves through the state as of tomorrow.

A broad area of low pressure is extending across the western half of South Australia, to impact the Adelaide Area by mid evening Thursday.
The system is to produce an extended band of rain from a line south of Woomera from tonight. Rain will extend and increase Thursday and should reach the Adelaide Area by 5PM. Rain will continue overnight and into Friday before clearing Friday night.


A bit of variance in the models but an easy 10-20mm by Saturday morning for most areas with local heavier falls of 20-30 to be expected.

Access R has 30-40mm for the Adelaide area and a general area of 20-40mm across the southern agricultural area.
Access G around 20-30mm and EC 10-15mm

An eye is being kept out for the next system for the start of next week.

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#1465126 - 06/06/2018 16:43 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 358
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Good stuff, just in time. Anyone want to hazard a guess for monday? I'm keen to go watch the bays but depending on weather might leave the family at home.
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#1465168 - 07/06/2018 10:30 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 518
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Go Tigers!! Might be a pretty wet game.

BOM forecast is for 80% chance of showers with a possible thunderstorm later in the day. BSCH website indicates rain arriving early-mid afternoon.

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#1465185 - 07/06/2018 16:27 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
HillsStorm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2018
Posts: 27
That crazy forecast, did not see that today, saw rain developing but no storm on bom forecast. Not sure where you got that but not from bom site haha.
Anyway big flop by looks, no rain till tomorrow afernoon now, maybe 5mm here there. Monday system powerful, but blink you miss it, come go faster than pay on card night haha. P

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#1465186 - 07/06/2018 16:28 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
HillsStorm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2018
Posts: 27
And go Hanshin Tigers, bonsai!!!

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#1465189 - 07/06/2018 17:06 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Looks like the whole thing is falling to pieces to me. What will the tv stations talk up now?


Edited by willitrainagain (07/06/2018 17:09)

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#1465198 - 07/06/2018 19:22 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7580
Loc: Adelaide Hills
TV stations could talk up [about] the dew-points rising around Adelaide in the next 12-24 hours smile . No puns intended.


Edited by Seira (07/06/2018 19:29)

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#1465207 - 07/06/2018 23:29 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice NW Cloudband feeding in symptomatic of a developing negative IOD. It won't be a strong one but will be in the neutral to weakish range which is all we need for a good season, especially if the SAM co-operates which it looks like it will. All going to plan so far and should be a nice little break for areas that have not had a break yet, such as central to northern EP, Upper North and parts of the Riverland and northern Mallee and into NW VIC and Riverina of NSW.

Band is streaming down along a 185knot jet, very strong indeed, moisture is good but the lifting trigger is sliding away. Most of the jet itself is doing the job, but a weak second upper shortwave currently just going past Perth will move into the Bight tomorrow and increase activity again as it squeezes the cloudband tomorrow, chiefly afternoon and evening. Slow trickle of falls, best will be north of Adelaide but Adelaide's best chance will probably be tomorrow evening give or take a few hours.

After this we should see a repeat effort of fronts and shortwave troughs move up in a conveyor belt style from the SW, chiefly focusing on the southern ag areas with quite a bit of frequent shower activity and great falls about coasts and the ranges, dropping off inland however.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (07/06/2018 23:30)

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#1465219 - 08/06/2018 08:36 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
2.6 mm yesterday here in Gulfview Heights is better than nothing, hoping for more today.
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Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1465222 - 08/06/2018 08:52 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 518
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
2.8mm at home. Bit disappointing but better than nothing.

Western metro Adelaide has missed out on every decent event so far this autumn with only dribbles here and there. Particularly noticeable when Adelaide recorded ca 25mm last month in a day to less than 1mm for us.

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#1465229 - 08/06/2018 10:54 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
1.2mm here

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#1465232 - 08/06/2018 11:37 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Forecast updated at 11:00 am CST on Friday 8 June 2018.
Forecast for the rest of Friday

Summary
Max 15
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 60%

Adelaide area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon.

One hell of a back down from 24 hrs ago
Hopefully those who really need it are getting some.


Edited by willitrainagain (08/06/2018 11:40)

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#1465234 - 08/06/2018 12:20 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17590
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Unfortunately the BOM don't pay much attention to whats actually going on. Forecast models by last night had bugger all rain for the city after sunrise today.

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#1465252 - 08/06/2018 16:15 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Spark Hunter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/06/2012
Posts: 69
Loc: Fleurieu Peninsula
4 very tiny drops near Goolwa, only just felt on the skin.

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#1465264 - 08/06/2018 18:52 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
HillsStorm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2018
Posts: 27
Have a good laugh with fellow user just now reading post in here say all go to plan bahahaha. Why post such rubbish haha. Not to plan anywhere near and everyone agree I feel, been terrible for 95% of farmers. Not even a drop most place, band fell apart before it develop. No connection with NW feed of middle cloud and cold front. Terrible terrible terrible.

No Bonsia for you. You better than that lift game haha.


Edited by HillsStorm (08/06/2018 18:53)

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#1465270 - 08/06/2018 20:29 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17590
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Mark, it has been great for many farmers. This event has been a great fall for many areas that have missed out so far this season. Nth EP, upper Mid Nth, Riverland, nth Mallee....
But yes, it couldve been much better if it had upper support. Models however picked it well, apart from Access who was a tad optimistic.

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#1465273 - 08/06/2018 22:00 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 713
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Little bit of rain out there:

Parawa West 22.2
Kingscote 17.6
Woomera 13.6
Cummins Apt 13.2
Port Augusta 11.8

Interesting what Mark up in Clare might report, Helen in Burra.
The rain band sure seemed up there, not down here all day long...


Edited by betsuin (08/06/2018 22:05)

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#1465274 - 08/06/2018 22:35 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17590
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer been a great little band of rain over sth Fleurieu particularly tonight...
In fact a PWS near Delemere has recorded almost 90mm. Been watching it and its prob accurate - they have been under heavy rain for several hours on radar.

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#1465275 - 08/06/2018 23:02 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: HillsStorm]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: HillsStorm
Have a good laugh with fellow user just now reading post in here say all go to plan bahahaha. Why post such rubbish haha. Not to plan anywhere near and everyone agree I feel, been terrible for 95% of farmers. Not even a drop most place, band fell apart before it develop. No connection with NW feed of middle cloud and cold front. Terrible terrible terrible.

No Bonsia for you. You better than that lift game haha.


It's quite interesting, expected about 2-3mm and managed 2.2mm to 9am and have had 1.4mm since at home, mostly later this afternoon. Second shortwave as mentioned last night is still coming in with a cluster of slower moving showers further west. Nice falls inland as expected, she's going better to plan than probably any system this year. Certainly the tip of Fleurieu has been getting trained with heavy convective showers, no doubt be some fairly significant flash flooding amongst the steep terrain there.

TS cool

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#1465309 - 09/06/2018 15:07 Re: SA - NW Cloud Rain Band June 7-9 2018 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2206
Loc: Clare, SA
12mm in Clare betsuin. bit far south for the heavier stuff but another nice top up. Areas that desperately needed some got some which is great news, especially upper north which had a hell of a dry season last year.

EC has 50mm next ten days so should see at least 20mm with the fronts this coming week. Even EC has been underestimating our rainfall most event up here this year so who knows, might luck out with a heavy event. Looks promising!
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