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#1465078 - 06/06/2018 01:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well few quieter days after the last target, loads of tornado warned supercells across ND east of the target but all went linear quickly. One confirmed tornado in ND.

Would have ducked to NM for a couple of days then back N today for ND/SD, not that flash but something about and coming days ok as well.

Targeting around Steele ND

TS cool

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#1465150 - 07/06/2018 01:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Toughie yest with things not firing until dark and then it was active but messy, cleaner storms over W SD.

Today we have 3 main areas of focus, upslope flow and discrete storms over N WY, dryline storms down W KS from SW NE and boundary storms over IA and E NE. The KS option should produce a ripping MCS later as it rages ESE towards OK. Elevated and discrete early over CO before moving east into SW NE and W/NW KS and encountering a significant boost in CAPE, up to 6000J/kg with a nice SE LLJ in KS especially. Might go linear quickly but any of this area will do ok. The OFB in E NE should fire up some strong storms as well but not a huge fan of southward moving ones.

Targeting around Russell Spring KS but may need to move a fair way if things get linear too quick.

TS cool

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#1465192 - 07/06/2018 17:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Slight risk for storms.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
and evening especially across the north-central High Plains.

...North-central High Plains to middle Mississippi Valley...
Early-day storms may linger over parts of the upper/middle
Mississippi River Valley on Friday, with these storms likely to
shift east-southeastward during the day away from a greater
reservoir of moisture and instability. The potential for severe
thunderstorms appears a bit higher farther west across the central
High Plains vicinity later in the day.

Near the crest of the upper ridge, near-neutral height tendencies
and weak low-level upslope flow should be sufficient for isolated
storm development across the central High Plains by Friday mid/late
afternoon, with a greater coverage of storms probable Friday night
as warm advection increases, with the 00Z ECMWF particularly
supportive of an MCS-related scenario Friday night. Regardless, it
currently appears that the most severe-favorable environment and
likelihood of at least isolated to widely scattered storm
development Friday afternoon into Friday night will be from far
eastern Wyoming into western/northern Nebraska and southern South
Dakota. If/where storms develop, a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass and 30-40 kt of effective shear would support severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging winds.

..Guyer.. 06/06/2018
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1465211 - 08/06/2018 02:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: ozone doug]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday's target was heavily capped and didn't fire till well after dark! pointless by then really but far SW NE and NE CO did so would have re-positoned there. But nothing like the amazing tornado that Willoughy, Brayden and Greg got in Laramie WY!!!! Best I've seen since the Campo magic in 2010 and just about the only people in the world on it!

Now today, potential for some more nice supercells across MT/WY especially and given I'd be somewhere probably in WY I'd make a trip into SE/E MT and go for the clear air there today. Shortwave aloft with some nice SFC SE slow so enough veering with height and bulk shear approx 40knots. Supercells initialy wity some very large hail quite possible before things get messy. Never know what could happen in this part of the world like yesterday did show. Target around Tusler MT and take from there, road options in many directions if need to move.

TS cool

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#1465212 - 08/06/2018 02:58 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Damn can't delete, on second thoughts given slacker shear I'll try a bit more SW as don't want things to have lined out by then. Target moved to Wyola MT.

TS cool

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#1465278 - 09/06/2018 03:38 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Plenty of strong storms in WY/MT yest to choose from, lots of hail but no tornado!

Today looks better for holding some stronger discrete cells off the Black Range in SD, large CAPE up to 3500J/kg with nice easterly compoment jutting into that area, could be a lovely sculptured supercell or two with mothership potential...and very large hail.

Targeting Wall SD today.

TS cool

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#1465395 - 11/06/2018 08:26 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Worked alright that target with nice LP supercell forming off the Black Hills and moving over Rapid City with a further cluster of more substantial storms forming just SE o of Wall.

Late for todays target but a similar area! Just more NW, have been keen on the Sturgis/Whitewood SD area. lovely turning and good chance of discrete cells so needs to be watched.

TS cool

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#1465437 - 11/06/2018 23:36 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yesterday worked ok in the end though would have had to drive north to the cell of the day which was most impressive but didn't quite produce.

Don't mind today again, more SE however as cold front sweeps down from the N. Angle of low level flow is mostly southerly however near the frontal boundary over NE especially early there is some backing of sfc winds to the ESE so I'll target that area. Should eventually see the cold front take over and sweep down into KS with storms firing right along it further and further SW.

Target Sterling NE Will start here and likely have to keep ahead of the advancing line moving into NE KS later most likely.

TS cool

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#1465645 - 15/06/2018 02:25 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wow it looks VERY GOOD today for far northern ND and into Canada, some seriously strong shear down in the lowers with vigourous LLJ backing with a big easterly component atop a nice little low with a strong mid jet and better upper jet aloft. Highly organised environment and we could easily see some violent and long-tracked tornadoes. Looks like the best day of the season by a country light year but not sure how many will be out.

Target is tricky, Canada is safer but ND could well see some monsters on the tail end of the supercell cluster so will give a target in ND and also one for anyone heading to Canada a little more N.


Target for ND is Bowbells ND and take it from there, best potential is probably east of there if a long-tracker can get going and for Canada I'll go for about Moosomin Saskatchewan but also likely to track into Manitoba.

TS cool



Edited by Thunderstruck (15/06/2018 02:27)

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#1465780 - 17/06/2018 03:01 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well the other day was a bit underwhwelming as got messy over SK but Bowbells was a great spot to catch a few supercells over ND/SK border, one went tornadic into Minatoba.

Today its interesting, strong forcing and very large CAPE, nice shear. Targeting far eastern SD into MN....official target of Graceville MN for nice tornado potential, could surprise today.

TS cool

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#1465966 - 18/06/2018 23:45 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Target went ok the other day but no tornado, just some strong storms!! forgot one for yesterday as was tired and of course a lone tornado in far NE CO!!!

Today fairly marginal but will play the upslope flow in NE CO/SE WY Both regions could score a tornado but target wise will go for around Buyers/Last Chance CO and go from there.

TS cool

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#1466096 - 19/06/2018 23:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Big storms just north of the target area yest would have caught them fairly easily, loads of amazing hooks but perhaps only a brief tornado reported.

Today looks strong, shortwave trough rockets through increasing shear. Upslope regime should fire in CO but a boundary sitting over western KS will blow too. Given Id have finished in CO yea Id play that stuff first but I think the KS storms could be more numerous but not nec as clean.

Target of roughly the Arlington CO area but for those playing KS I think Garden City KS is alright

TS cool

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#1466153 - 20/06/2018 20:40 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Cant wait till you get over there one day mate you are a guru at it already.
Though as you would know it changes so much when you there but million times more fun.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1466160 - 20/06/2018 21:06 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Twister1]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Twister1
Cant wait till you get over there one day mate you are a guru at it already.
Though as you would know it changes so much when you there but million times more fun.


Yeah I'm looking forward to getting him over there for a season real soon too mate. We all better look out though I reckon, he's hitting those targets a bit too often laugh

That nice photogenic trunk near Keenesburg CO today certainly made me keen for next season already!
_________________________
Videos

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#1466218 - 21/06/2018 20:28 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah after the last 6 seasons in a row, i said i take next year off but after this year now im not sure lol,

Yeah nice sups last few days.

Yeah sure Lennie do quite well over there but as we know sometimes being there does change things and your targets etc.

Missing the open road late arvo storms the food and 30/20c so much
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1466269 - 23/06/2018 01:25 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Haha, yea all In can do is make targets in here and learn small scale stuff. Already learnt more about the weird Denver cyclone stuff this season than in any prior. I'm always a sponge in met!

Well the other day my target was a bit south of the keenesburg tornado but could have shot north to intercept the Limon monster fairly easily.

Today looks GUSTY and windy. Bulk shear is right up from prev days as strong upper support moves in from the west, moisture advection is ok but perhaps a little dry. No issues with instability, prob see some nice splitting discrete big boys over SE CO, then forming into a large MCS/derecho of sorts over western KS later or the OK/TX Panhandle into N OK with a serious wind threat, man will blow semis of the road if it gets cranking. Tornado chance small but possible, pob maximised over SE CO or the OK/TX panhandle, the latte especially so on HRRR.

Target for now is Springfield/Campo CO and take it from there.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (23/06/2018 01:26)

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#1466373 - 25/06/2018 00:29 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Strong potential today, lingering boundary from MCS activity across W OK into TX panhandle. Other area to watch is upslope in ESE CO.

Ill play the boundary and triple point region and go for McLean TX

TS cool

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#1466389 - 25/06/2018 08:37 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Scrap that! OFB cleaned the entire area out!! original supercells on dryline painted by HRRR and a couple of other models sure won't be forming now. Will have to push NW to intercept upscale line coming down from SE CO.

TS cool

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#1466657 - 29/06/2018 02:09 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Karinen SD tomorrow, mod risk with 10% tornadoes further N, just holding SW a tad into SD much of good stuff over ND later.

TS cool

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#1466667 - 29/06/2018 11:47 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Target working really well today! Cone tornado on the ground just SW into MT atm.

TS cool

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