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#1465481 - 12/06/2018 17:10 NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2612
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Probably time for a thread given it’s only 3 days away and models are pretty all locked in about a surge of icy air sweeping across SE Australia.

Looking at MSLP charts a surge of very cold air detaches from the Antarctic vortex and surges NE, generating a deep Tasman Low south of Vict and then being dragged across NSW by the Low / next approaching high combo.

Snow to 800m sure possible on the ranges and west of, and of course the Snowies. Thredbo for eg is forecast for over a 1m of snow over the next 7 days, super-charging the snow season.

Unfortunately moisture is limited for the coast so unlikely to see any snow east of say Oberon plateau and south. Barrington may see a flurry but not much unless those winds turn more southerly.

However if those winds do more turn southerly, chance of lower level snow for the ranges east inc Barrington’s - but that’s a big IF at this stage. Those southerlies however will be bitter - one model as them dragging air from around 50s!

Max temps across the Sydney, Illawarra and southern Hunter will be low teens for the weekend, up to 7-8c below average for some places for sure. I’m hoping that we get more unstable southerlies instead and see snow along the eastern higher parts of the ranges.

But at this stage the timing is great for those who want to chase - peak falls from Sat lunch to evening, with more during Sunday morning into early arvo.


Edited by Seabreeze (13/06/2018 19:49)
Edit Reason: added state and year

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#1465488 - 12/06/2018 18:33 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2612
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest EC shows some precip around the Robertson area Saturday afternoon with temps around 5. Could be a small flurry or 3 with the odd shower if they drag down enough cold air. But nothing substantial as yet.

Sunday morning looks to be decent falls right across the usual suspects with Crookwell and Traralgon also a chance. Still too westerly for anything east of those higher peaks.

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#1465490 - 12/06/2018 18:41 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 106
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
50s as in 50° S, ayy? Proper polar winds, then.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1465492 - 12/06/2018 19:06 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 444
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...

Looking very good on EC for the CT.

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#1465493 - 12/06/2018 19:24 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 106
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Jævla, that map is suggesting snowfall down to the Burrendong, Cudgegong, Kandos, Mudgee, Woodstock-Wyangala regions etc.

Just like the 19th Century! cheers

Last time snow fell down to Wyangala was in 2015; our last proper winter whistle
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1465504 - 12/06/2018 23:28 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6962
Yeah not looking too good for the BT's, might not go camping up there if no chance of snow.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1465513 - 13/06/2018 09:22 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2612
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models pretty much same as yesterday for this event; however upgrading coastal showers/storms/rain possibility for Mon/Tues.

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#1465528 - 13/06/2018 13:51 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1186
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like there will be some good precipitation with all of this, mainly Mon-Tues by the looks of it.
Another front coming next Wed as well I believe?
Certainly will be wintry, some snow on the Barringtons for sure.

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#1465535 - 13/06/2018 15:05 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2612
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looking forward to mode updates - last nights EC was very bullish for tablelands, pushing snowfalls well into Monday!

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#1465539 - 13/06/2018 15:42 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Today's BOM 4 Day chart looking very juicy.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Embedded trough after embedded trough from a deep southerly fetch, full of top up moisture for the mountains. It's not surprising that BOM have 1 metre of snow forecast down there.


Edited by Homer (13/06/2018 15:43)

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#1465540 - 13/06/2018 15:56 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 444
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Brr. Sydney shivering with a predicted max temp of 14 degrees on Sunday. Regional centres such as Orange and Katoomba are at 4 and 6 degrees respectively.

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#1465542 - 13/06/2018 16:15 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Brr. Sydney shivering with a predicted max temp of 14 degrees on Sunday. Regional centres such as Orange and Katoomba are at 4 and 6 degrees respectively.


The forecasts are in for the Central Tablelands and BOM going for snow down to 1000 metres on Saturday and 600 metres on Sunday.

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#1465543 - 13/06/2018 16:20 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8570
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
There is a front followed by 6 (?) troughs embedded in the S/SW stream in the space of 3 days. Can't remember seeing that before. It's a snowy wonderland scenario

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#1465547 - 13/06/2018 16:27 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
There is a front followed by 6 (?) troughs embedded in the S/SW stream in the space of 3 days. Can't remember seeing that before. It's a snowy wonderland scenario


Yep. A reasonably rare system this one. Particularly for June with such a prolonged period of snow.

Jindabyne max for Saturday is 3 degrees. Don't see that very often.

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#1465549 - 13/06/2018 16:36 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Geebus.
Checkout Meteye "snow" for 10.00 am Sunday and zoom in to ST's/CT's!!

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/



Edited by Homer (13/06/2018 16:37)

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#1465550 - 13/06/2018 16:44 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 465
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Just in time for the weekend as well. snow chasing time.

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#1465552 - 13/06/2018 16:53 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Sidney]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Just in time for the weekend as well. snow chasing time.




If I could, I'd be booking a room in Oberon for Friday and Saturday night. I'd wake up on Saturday morning and have a leisurely breakfast at a local cafe, then wait for the juiciness to begin during the afternoon and continue all the way through till I had to come home on Sunday afternoon. smile
Alas, this is just a dream. frown

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#1465554 - 13/06/2018 17:04 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
BOM now going for a possible 150 cm's for Thredbo and Perisher over the next 5 days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

#winterwonderland

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#1465557 - 13/06/2018 18:02 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: Kino]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2029
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Wasting too much time on the ski.com.au forums now!

Some of the posters there are serious weather boffins.

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#1465559 - 13/06/2018 18:14 Re: NSW Antarctic blast Fri 15/6 —> Tues 19/6/2018 [Re: kizz]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: kizz
Wasting too much time on the ski.com.au forums now!

Some of the posters there are serious weather boffins.


Haha! Me too.
But......there's much better information provided there than here, except for all the Off Topic comments. Poor Claude Cat...….. lol.

Also, the current Observations threads keep us up to date in all sorts of places. Far more informative.


Edited by Homer (13/06/2018 18:17)

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