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#1458853 - 25/03/2018 08:06 Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Its that time again folks to create this thread to give a heads up and reports for any snowfall in this area. This year I think will be quite good as we are heading into neutral enso territory.
This means there will be more chances of southern events passing through the area this year compared to last years dismal effort.
Thoughts ?


Edited by Matt Pearce (03/05/2018 07:30)
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#1458918 - 25/03/2018 12:22 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Coldrocks Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2008
Posts: 490
Wasn't it neutral last winter or was that 2016? Anyway i think a lot has to do with the climate drivers, SAM and Sub-tropical jet for snowfall to reach the NT's..SAM needs to be negative, there was a lot of positive SAM for most of last winter stopping the big systems reaching Australia and the Sub-tropical jet has been strengthening the past few winters. Lets hope it changes this season as i'm keen for a NT's snow chase in July smile Just my opinion


Edited by Matt Pearce (03/05/2018 07:30)

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#1459815 - 30/03/2018 17:29 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
Here's hoping for a snowy winter here in Guyra this year!!


Edited by Matt Pearce (03/05/2018 07:30)
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#1459988 - 31/03/2018 22:22 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowyTrainNorth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Glen Innes, NSW
I agree. It'd be nice to see some snow floating from the sky this year.


Edited by Matt Pearce (03/05/2018 07:31)
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#1462975 - 02/05/2018 20:17 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowyTrainNorth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Glen Innes, NSW
Ambitious... highs of 5.


Edited by Matt Pearce (03/05/2018 07:31)
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#1463224 - 06/05/2018 15:20 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
Looks like we are due some cold weather on Friday. Saturday min of 0C and Max of 7C - with showers. Does that mean snow??
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#1463226 - 06/05/2018 15:57 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: Boonah-boy]
Jason P Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/10/2008
Posts: 472
Loc: Lismore, Northern Rivers
Originally Posted By: Boonah-boy
Looks like we are due some cold weather on Friday. Saturday min of 0C and Max of 7C - with showers. Does that mean snow??


Not really. A lot of factors need to be in play for it to snow, least of which is adequate moisture @ 700mb which at the moment is sadly lacking. There also need to be some decent upper support with 500mb temps -26 or lower. There may be some icy precip but at the current moment the way the models are, snow looks absolutely marginal at best. A very good guide on how to forecast potential snow events can be found here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/docs/snow_chase_guide.htm

Cheers

Jason


Edited by Jason P (06/05/2018 15:59)
Edit Reason: more info

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#1465372 - 10/06/2018 18:11 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Charts are are showing something for the 16th June - next Saturday. Looks very lite at the moment
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#1465546 - 13/06/2018 16:27 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
Looks like it will be cold on Sunday and Monday - but doubt if there will be any snow. Just cold weather......
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#1465556 - 13/06/2018 17:57 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Agree, can't see much happening this weekend now.
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#1465745 - 16/06/2018 16:25 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
You know - looking at the sky this afternoon. We just may get a flake or two over the next two days!!
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#1465748 - 16/06/2018 16:43 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
dan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/11/2001
Posts: 732
Loc: ipswich
Check out met eye. it has snow for guyra nearly all day now on monday


Edited by dan (16/06/2018 16:43)
Edit Reason: day

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#1465750 - 16/06/2018 16:55 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
It certainly does....I will let you know how we go
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#1465809 - 17/06/2018 13:18 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Boonah-boy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/06/2006
Posts: 62
Loc: Guyra
Very light sago/snow showers earlier. MetEye seems to be predicting snow for tonight
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#1465844 - 17/06/2018 21:22 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowBM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2010
Posts: 80
Loc: Black Mountain NSW 1340m ASL
At Black Mountain, snow fell for about 20 minutes around 7am this morning. Some video here: http://www.geocities.ws/snowbm/snowpictures2018.html

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#1465854 - 17/06/2018 22:28 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: SnowBM]
James Chambers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/07/2001
Posts: 1164
Loc: Springfield, SE Qld
Originally Posted By: SnowBM
At Black Mountain, snow fell for about 20 minutes around 7am this morning. Some video here: http://www.geocities.ws/snowbm/snowpictures2018.html


Very nice! I made the trip down to the Walcha area. Saw lots of sago/graupel/soft hail (even at Armidale), but there were flakes at times too. Showers on radar out there tonight SW of the NT's. Could be interesting!

10 sec video on my FB page:
https://www.facebook.com/jameschambersimagery

Cheers,
James
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#1465878 - 18/06/2018 09:56 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
snowstruck81 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/05/2011
Posts: 39
Loc: Ashford NSW
Can anyone tell me the snow situation in Guyra at the moment?? ☺️

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#1465881 - 18/06/2018 11:20 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6964
I've seen pics of a settled snowfall there. smile But it's probably melting as the day wears on.

https://www.facebook.com/HigginsStormCha...?type=3&theater


Edited by Wave Rider (18/06/2018 11:22)
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#1465886 - 18/06/2018 11:42 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowBM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2010
Posts: 80
Loc: Black Mountain NSW 1340m ASL
Pretty well all gone now at Black Mountain, except for a few little patches on the south side of buildings. About 10am the snow turned to drizzle which quickly melted the snow on the ground.

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#1465912 - 18/06/2018 16:04 Re: Guyra and Surrounds Snow chances 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowyTrainNorth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Glen Innes, NSW
snow showers up to 9am here. Makes it better then last year, I suppose. Also cold! Max of 6 at home
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