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#1465536 - 13/06/2018 15:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1133
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
It has gotten very bleak and extremely windy here in the last 1/2 hour and looks like rain is headed this way. Supposed to be -2 on Monday, brrrrrrr.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-131.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1465537 - 13/06/2018 15:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5171
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Quite windy today. I guess things are getting a bit active in the uppers. I guess this is the energy ahead of the big trough expected to move through and drop our temps?

Nah not really. There's no real significant surface systems near us at the moment and the upper troughs moving across inland Australia are currently broad but weak.
The stronger winds won't arrive until the weekend/early next week and that's when the significantly colder air will sweep over us.

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#1465538 - 13/06/2018 15:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5171
I was also going to add re the sunspots and that talk earlier in this thread about a supposed record cold winter for us - if the current solar cycle did have such a big cooling effect on the world, we wouldn't be seeing such widespread heat many degrees above normal for this time of year across huge sections of the US, western and central Europe, and northern Russia that's been continuing for weeks in those regions.

P.S. longer range ensembles have also been suggesting another warm-up over a large section of eastern Australia later this month (after the upcoming cold air eventually eases back).

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#1465544 - 13/06/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Things looking a bit hopeful to the NW, might get lucky.

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#1465551 - 13/06/2018 16:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I was also going to add re the sunspots and that talk earlier in this thread about a supposed record cold winter for us - if the current solar cycle did have such a big cooling effect on the world, we wouldn't be seeing such widespread heat many degrees above normal for this time of year across huge sections of the US, western and central Europe, and northern Russia that's been continuing for weeks in those regions.

P.S. longer range ensembles have also been suggesting another warm-up over a large section of eastern Australia later this month (after the upcoming cold air eventually eases back).


There are several papers that assert global temps dip at solar minimum albeit by negligible amounts (around 0.2C). What is not measured in those papers is the temperature impact of extended low amplitude solar cycles (or if these occur back to back).

Based on the previous solar cycle we still have 2-3 years of solar minimum for this cycle where the annual sunspot number is below 20 to go yet. Questions for an inquiring mind. Is the impact cumulative? Will the fact that the solar maximum for the cycle was lower have any impact as well. In 2 years time we may have a clearer picture.

If we get a record cold winter this year though I would be more likely to attribute it to regional factors as I would the warm temps in other areas of the globe.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465553 - 13/06/2018 16:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Wynnum
Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.


Edited by retired weather man (13/06/2018 17:00)
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun30.0(74),YTD634.4(701.1),

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#1465555 - 13/06/2018 17:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5171
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.

Hence why I said the *current* solar cycle, not the well-known Maunder Minimum back in those times.

I think itís easy to overlook the context of the Maunder Minimum - that period of the lack of solar activity lasted for a number of decades (thereís nothing about the current part of the solar cycle thatís matched the same duration of the Maunder Minimum, not yet anyway)... and the other thing thatís often overlooked is that the extreme cold associated with that period wasnít global, nor did it occur every year. Some regions also experienced unseasonably warm periods during those decades. The start of the cooling trend that eventually culminated in the Little Ice Age also kicked in well before the start of the Maunder Minimum (multiple centuries beforehand).

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#1465558 - 13/06/2018 18:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bit of light precip on Stapy to our N, zilch here as expected.
Interesting all this talk of Maunder Minimums & Solar Activity/Flares etc. Amazing how this planet works, particularly the warming part. Given recent events in Hawaii & Guatemala, what volcanic activity has taken place in the past under our oceans that we dont know about, antarctica in particular? I'd think that would create some heat? Sorry for off topic.
2C forecast minimum here for Mon, dont usually get frost on our little hill, always a first time I suppose.

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#1465560 - 13/06/2018 18:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5171
Nah volcanic eruptions have the opposite effect (any heat they emit is far offset by the cooling sulphate aerosols they put up into the atmosphere) and even then, only big ones that put out a lot of those aerosols into the stratosphere in the right area for them to circulate around the world and linger for long enough. Those effects are also only temporary in any case.

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#1465561 - 13/06/2018 18:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6992
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
A few flashes of lightning from the cells around here, quite similar to last week (or was it the week before). Isolated, but better than nothing.

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#1465565 - 13/06/2018 18:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for the explanation Ken although under water volcanic activity could have a localised effect in antarctica?

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#1465567 - 13/06/2018 18:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 174
Loc: Brisbane
A few drops in Brisbane right now. Those showers moving in don't seem to have much in it so I doubt there will be more than 1mm in the gauge.

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#1465568 - 13/06/2018 18:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.

Hence why I said the *current* solar cycle, not the well-known Maunder Minimum back in those times.

I think itís easy to overlook the context of the Maunder Minimum - that period of the lack of solar activity lasted for a number of decades (thereís nothing about the current part of the solar cycle thatís matched the same duration of the Maunder Minimum, not yet anyway)... and the other thing thatís often overlooked is that the extreme cold associated with that period wasnít global, nor did it occur every year. Some regions also experienced unseasonably warm periods during those decades. The start of the cooling trend that eventually culminated in the Little Ice Age also kicked in well before the start of the Maunder Minimum (multiple centuries beforehand).


In a roundabout way I think I agree Ken. The Maunder Minimum was preceded by the Sporer Minimum which was preceded by the Wolf Minimum. We've seen nothing remotely close to this 500 year period of low solar activity before certainly not during the past 200 years.

I'm not sure global temps will respond that quickly even if we do head into something like a Maunder Minimum (decades away at the very least).

That it takes 11 years for global temps to respond with a 0.2C drop from solar max to min is a pretty strong indicator that solar activity does not force rapid changes in global temps. Rather I suspect a slow accumulated change over decades (whether up or down).
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465581 - 14/06/2018 05:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1188
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
0.4mm here yesterday arvo. First measurable rain in over a month and who knows when the next lot will be. Minimums down to possibly as low as -4C here by Monday, and below -5C in places like Oakey, Warwick, Stanthorpe etc. Will be colder than anything from the last few winters if it does come off, brrrr! eek
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 315mm ytd

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#1465582 - 14/06/2018 08:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 942
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Ken, the world temps during the Maunder Minimum were not uniformly cold. Most of Alaska, the southern part of Greenland and the North Atlantic, a small part of the Artic, also parts of Russia I believe and parts of the Gulf of Mexico area were above the norms. This is only in the Noethern Hemisphere. Data for the SH is not as prevalent I don't think.
It is interesting to note, right now, the SST for the North Atlantic are quite cold. But I guess we are in the early stages of this Minimum, and even further from Maunder Minimum levels.
Some say we have not even officially begun the current Minimum as what we are seeing now in sunspots is abnormally low as compared to earlier predictions.

Hey Ken, how is it looking for any snow chances this year in our area? I can't help to think if this dry trend continues, our chances will not be very good this year. Any indicators? Or will be have to wait a bit longer to tell? Cheers.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1465583 - 14/06/2018 08:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4541
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 14 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0825

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......18.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........14C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....WSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........5 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1017.4HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........2.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......24.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....13.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...12.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..13C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1014.5HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 20kph at 1149.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER........Overnight showers.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun30.0(74),YTD634.4(701.1),

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#1465586 - 14/06/2018 09:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5171
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Ken, the world temps during the Maunder Minimum were not uniformly cold. Most of Alaska, the southern part of Greenland and the North Atlantic, a small part of the Artic, also parts of Russia I believe and parts of the Gulf of Mexico area were above the norms. This is only in the Noethern Hemisphere. Data for the SH is not as prevalent I don't think.
It is interesting to note, right now, the SST for the North Atlantic are quite cold. But I guess we are in the early stages of this Minimum, and even further from Maunder Minimum levels.
Some say we have not even officially begun the current Minimum as what we are seeing now in sunspots is abnormally low as compared to earlier predictions.

Hey Ken, how is it looking for any snow chances this year in our area? I can't help to think if this dry trend continues, our chances will not be very good this year. Any indicators? Or will be have to wait a bit longer to tell? Cheers.


The SST's in the north Atlantic are actually a mixed bag of warm and cool areas at the moment. The 2nd image below shows how their SST's currently fit into the global picture.

As for snow potential for the SE QLD/NE NSW highlands, the overall impression I get is that it has an uphill battle for the next few weeks, if not beyond. After the upcoming cold spell ends (albeit with cold nights/mornings continuing for awhile after the daytimes warm up), there still doesn't look to be any strong signals for prolonged cold outbreaks within that timeframe, and in fact daytimes may eventually become a bit warmer than normal again.
One of the many tools (called OCN) that the US Climate Prediction Center factors into their longer range forecasts is statistical analysis of longer term trends in seasonal temps/precip within the last 10 to 15 years in certain regions. It can be argued that this could also be relevant to our part of the world when it comes to snowfalls since trends in snowfalls (even with the high year to year variability in this part of the world) tend to also reflect long term trends in longwave patterns, temps, precip, etc... and snowfalls have trended to become very few and far between in our region over the last half a decade or so (2015 was a standout exception).

But you could never completely rule out the chance of a decent future snowfall for any given year despite any long term trends (2015 was an example). Even if long range guidance is going for a warmer than normal period during a certain timeframe, there can still be a short-lived cold outbreak during that period. Just that the odds are stacked against it and even if one does occur, it's likely that conditions will quickly rebound to become warmer than normal again.

The 1st map below was the forecast from an ensemble of several models for conditions averaged across winter and calibrated to past forecasts vs observations to improve its accuracy. But note that they were run early last month so the picture may have changed a bit since then.

Worth noting that so far this winter, Brisbane's max temps have been above average every single day except for one while min temps have been a mix of above and below average (a bit tricky to compare though because the daily obs are compared against the monthly long term mean and you'd expect it to typically get cooler as we head further into the month).






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#1465589 - 14/06/2018 09:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I am interested how this solar cycle goes .As predicted to to be a double dip or extended low cycle dragging out . And possibly cycle 25 may have started early . link to that .
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1465612 - 14/06/2018 16:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 942
Loc: Warwick, QLD
As always, thanks for the info Ken. I can see an near average June coming up here with highs a little above the average and lows a little below the average. Sort of like May was.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1465613 - 14/06/2018 17:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 942
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Hey Doug, some scientist like Rolf Witzsche think this Grand Solar Minimum becomes the ice age. Very technical stuff and my understanding of it is a little shaky, but anyone out there with insight into this is welcome to reply. His views are catastrophic indeed!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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