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#1464198 - 22/05/2018 18:57 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

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#1464805 - 01/06/2018 20:53 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Eigerwand]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 324
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

Very alarming. Gerg has a chart for Australian snowfall reduction as well. It's in his charts/graphs section. That could be a useful idea.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/global-wind-oscillation-and-aam.html

Today I am releasing an article that represents a body of work that I have been working on for several weeks now. I have been researching the Global Wind Oscillation and the similar Atmospheric Angular Momentum, and it's global effects since around Christmas. The last few weeks, I have been digging into how this global climate driver affects our snowfall here in Australia. So this article shows the results of this research. Enjoy smile

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#1464946 - 04/06/2018 14:40 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1987
Loc: Westbury
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...

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#1465208 - 07/06/2018 23:52 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowies]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 324
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Snowies
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...


The correlations between Aussie snow and climate drivers are real and their effects are measurable. We just don't know how to forecast the drivers very well. I am in the game for the fun, some are for the money, etc, etc....

Slow starts don't really mean anything.... if anything, it could mean a good season and ending.

Again, Gerg has written articles on the climate drivers impacts on the snow, beyond ENSO, SAM and IOD.

and My thoughts on the long term, drivers looking fairly neutral beyond the next two weeks, models with some nice setups....

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/7th-july-australian-long-range-snow.html

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#1465224 - 08/06/2018 09:09 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 167
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.

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#1465284 - 09/06/2018 07:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.

Without getting into forbidden topics.....
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465426 - 11/06/2018 20:05 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
Forecast looks pretty amazing in the snowies for the next week if the precipitation totals come as snow. I havenít got a hope of making it down there this season but still hope itís a big one (as always).

Snowbooby, I imagine there would definitely be a relationship between snow in marginal areas and better snow seasons. 2000 is a good example. From memory there were 3 proper settled snow events in Katoomba that winter, with the May event being one of the best events, certainly over the past 30years, but really as good as can be reasonably expected in that part of the world. It was a cracker year down at the snowies that year, a lengthy season with a good snow depth throughout.
Iíd say the years that would throw off the correlation would be those ones where a NW flow that produces good snow for the snowies but results in conditions being too warm and dry elsewhere. There was a season a few back where the snowies got a 1m in a week from such a system I believe, but conditions elsewhere were decidedly un-snowy. Also remember 2009 I think which wasnít particularly great in depth but had a really cold August so the snow remained on the ground at quite low altitudes for weeks.

As for predicting it... I wonder if the local aboriginal people ever noticed any
difference in animal behaviour prior to winter indicating what could be in store.

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#1465429 - 11/06/2018 20:18 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
highcountry Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/02/2014
Posts: 28
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.

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#1465464 - 12/06/2018 11:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3785
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.


1965 is a good example of that - legendary for its huge snowfall in the Blue Mountains and north into Queensland, but a fairly poor season in the Alps.

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#1465636 - 14/06/2018 21:26 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: highcountry]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
Originally Posted By: highcountry
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.


Who said anything about it being more advanced? I was merely posing that perhaps there could be some knowledge given the time frames aboriginal people spent in the area that may be relevant. Obviously snow depth as such wouldnít have been of much interest to them, but maybe things like the amount of snow melt and the effects on streams and rivers was. Or things like Bogong Moths. They ate them, perhaps they noticed certain patterns in regards to food availability that could be attributed to the type of winter the Snowies experience.

I would think that given the sabotaging of the climate system humans have unleashed over the past 100years or so, trying to predict something as fickle as Australian snowfall would be very difficult no matter how sophisticated the modelling techniques. I would never dismiss the possibility of finding clues in the natural world and that oh so ďprimitive animal behaviourĒ.

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