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#1469874 - 01/09/2018 04:53 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8573
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Nicely done Steve, looking at things from a 'glass half full' perspective. Pardon the pun laugh

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#1469914 - 01/09/2018 15:34 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


August rain prevented six-month totals from approaching the record of 43 mm set in 1888.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/09/01/drought-sixth-month-august-2018/
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#1470618 - 11/09/2018 19:09 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I have drafted a graph like the one above (August 2018) projected for September using dummy rainfall totals.
Remarkably, the September total (8.8 mm up to the 11th) will have to exceed 17 mm to avoid breaking a record for rainfall deficiency.
The record, which has stood since 1912, is the 15-month total of 404 mm. That is a rate of only 27 mm per month: just half of the average monthly rate.
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1470941 - 19/09/2018 11:51 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
"This lack of moisture in recent months has caused some places in western NSW to experience one of their driest years to date on record.
Broken Hill's running annual total of 24.6mm as of 9am on Wednesday was its lowest to this point in the year since 1927 and the second lowest in more than 120 years of records.
Wanaaring's 45.8mm of rain to date is its lowest total to this point in the year since 1982.
Further east, Parkes was only up to 137.4mm as of 9am on Wednesday, making this its driest year to date since 1902 and the second driest on record."

- weatherzone Weather News Ben Domensino, Wednesday September 19, 2018

These near-record low figures for the year to date (8.6 months) agree with the shape of my August graph for Manilla (above). I have the 5- and 6-month rainfall totals as the most extremely low percentile values on the graph.
Unless there is normal rainfall this month, Manilla's 9-month total will also be extremely low, but not record-breaking. The 15-month total may break a record (thus, below the 0.1th percentile).
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#1471678 - 30/09/2018 17:05 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
September figures for Manilla show that rainfall in the last 15 months is not just extremely low, it is the lowest ever recorded.



A serious shortage at a duration of 20 years has also appeared, for the first time since 1949.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/09/30/record-15-month-drought-in-2018/
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#1471688 - 30/09/2018 18:05 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney did a bit better in September, with most places finishing about average (broadly defined) in what is admittedly the driest month of the year. The following are rainfall figures, with percentages being of median and average.

Sydney OH: 51.0 mm, 98%, 75%
Bankstown : 94.4 mm, 220%, 277%
Parramatta: 31.0 mm, 87%, 60%
Richmond : 18.4 mm, 62%, 42%

Good rains fell across much of Sydney on the 8th, with Bankstown, which had been very dry this year, scoring a bullseye. However, Sydney's North didn't do so well. Parramatta is about 15 km North of Bankstown, about the sane distance inland. It missed out on the good falls of the 8th.

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#1471864 - 02/10/2018 18:21 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The Bureau of Meteorology "Drought" maps now include September data, for example:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...18month&area=ns

On these maps, the greatest rainfall deficiencies in the area of the "North-west Slopes and Plains" match well to my "Rainfall Shortage" graph (above). The Bureau does not present analysis of 15-month deficiencies, which happen to be the most extreme deficiencies at Manilla just now. However, the 18-month deficiencies on the maps are much worse than the 12-month deficiencies, as on my graph.
Deficiencies for other durations also agree with my graph to a large extent.
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1471904 - 03/10/2018 06:49 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1187
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
We are not yet into restrictions with Hunter Water, and will require a few more months of low rainfall for that to be the case.
Still, we will see what happens with the upcoming event in the next few days, as long term rain forecasts were not good.


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