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#1466374 - 25/06/2018 05:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
We've gone from 15mm-40mm, 90% chance of rain a few days ago to 3mm-8mm, 80% chance of rain. Like I suspected, lucky to wet the washing & its the 10% that will stuff it up.

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#1466375 - 25/06/2018 05:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Think the troughs are the seasonal thing but the warm humid airmass streaming in from the CS this time of year is unseasonable.

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#1466376 - 25/06/2018 06:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1220
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks for the explanations. I just think that term unseasonal is greatly overused.

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#1466377 - 25/06/2018 06:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 292
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, on the sunny coast for a break and have woken to steady down pour. Missus says "NOT HAPPY JAN".
I love it.
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1466379 - 25/06/2018 07:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Like everybody out here nervously waiting for this event but the new, news story on Weatherzone about this event just caught my eye. I really wonder about the term "unseasonal". It seems every type of weather now is unseasonal. To me, this is a classic, normal winter type rain event. The number of years where these type of setups have given the best rain of the year in late autumn and winter are numerous.
Cheers everyone



They probably mean that troughs in inland QLD are more prevalent in the summer months compared to winter. There wouldn't be much heating with the sun low in the sky compared to summer, so I am curious what is triggering this trough to form in the first place?


I guess it depends on exactly what your own definition or criteria of “unseasonal” is. On one hand, it’s not usually a weekly occurrence but on the other, these kinds of systems coupled with a temporary moist onshore flow producing some rainfall in winter aren’t that rare either. The airmass to its east is mild but isn’t exactly what I’d call an exceptionally warm airmass.

As for the cause of the surface feature, an upper trough or low often induces a surface feature which is the case in this setup as well.

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#1466383 - 25/06/2018 07:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1220
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks, Ken. I suppose the correct answer is the middle ground.

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#1466386 - 25/06/2018 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4791
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 25 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......13.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........72%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........9C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SW 5kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1027.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......22.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....10.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...7.5C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1024.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST.SW 23kph at 1033
LAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.
_________________________

Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95)Nov16.8(109)YTD888.4(1037.4),

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#1466388 - 25/06/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472






A few (but not all) models are still trying to develop another surface system over inland eastern Australia next week in response to an upper trough.
But you wouldn't want its associated dynamics to shift any further south than in current runs or we'll miss out on the better rainfall amounts again.

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#1466421 - 25/06/2018 18:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
That WATL map is disgusting compared to a few days ago. The only model that looked accurate is AccessG and it doesnt hold much hope for the next upper trough either.

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#1466423 - 25/06/2018 18:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1873
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
That map looks bad for Indonesian fires it they are still lighting them .
_________________________
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#1466425 - 25/06/2018 18:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1189
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Is this map on drugs?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7

And the BSCH has upgraded too. (for inland that is)


Edited by Lani (25/06/2018 18:50)
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1466426 - 25/06/2018 18:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: Lani
Is this map on drugs?
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7
And the BSCH has upgraded too. (for inland that is)

That first map also includes the 2nd potential system early next week. GFS has been very aggressive with the rainfall totals though compared to many other models.

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#1466427 - 25/06/2018 18:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Lani
Is this map on drugs?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7

And the BSCH has upgraded too. (for inland that is)


Models are playing with a possible significant rain event next week. Only early days though.

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#1466429 - 25/06/2018 20:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
They did with this one as well Mega, went from 90% something & poss 15 to 40 to a wet dishcloth.

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#1466431 - 25/06/2018 20:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
50kt W'lys at 500hpa should be descent enough shear? With a weak onshore flow even convergence SE'ly turning ENE'ly 5-15kt in the low levels. Still GFS showing good turning with height. The lifted index on the the other hand.. might make things look alot slower in devoloping or more stable? Hoping there will be some lift but it does seem like the start of a series of upper level disturbances.


Edited by Steve O (25/06/2018 20:35)

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#1466433 - 25/06/2018 21:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1189
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
The sad thing is desperate farmers planted on this weeks prediction and now its disappeared again. If this next one comes through it will help them a lot!
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1466438 - 25/06/2018 23:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
That WATL map is disgusting compared to a few days ago. The only model that looked accurate is AccessG and it doesnt hold much hope for the next upper trough either.

ACCESS-G had a significant ECL sitting near the coast though which doesn’t look like eventuating.

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#1466444 - 26/06/2018 06:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
International models are mostly all interested in some worthwhile rainfall for southern Qld but ACCESS model seems not very interested. Does ACCESS persistently have trouble with forecasting rain over land in these types of setups?

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#1466447 - 26/06/2018 07:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
With the rain that has occurred off shore over the last few days, differences between Stapylton and Gympie radar rain 'estimated' 24 hr accumulations (rainfields product) can be seen.
The 24 hr total to 9am 25/6 shows that in the radar overlap area off shore between Maroochydore and Cape Moreton, Stapylton showing a larger area of green (>25mm) and yellow (>50mm) than Gympie Radar. Appears that accumulated rain is not calibrated the same between these two radars. Note though that area of rain mentioned above is around 105km distance from the Stapylton radar and 125 km distance from the Gympie Radar.
I have seen such differences before, but it appears to be more noticeable in the recent period with rain off shore.

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#1466448 - 26/06/2018 07:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 202
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Interesting that next weeks rain event will be a "warm" rain. Dew points of 17C for Brisbane.

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