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#1466673 - 29/06/2018 16:38 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Heat wave? Where's the heat coming from? Alice Springs struggled to 22c today? That's usually the indicator I use for possible heat as that's where it'll draw from.

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#1466674 - 29/06/2018 16:44 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Kino]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6109
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Heat wave? Where's the heat coming from? Alice Springs struggled to 22c today? That's usually the indicator I use for possible heat as that's where it'll draw from.


Well, 22 deg's is a heatwave in July.

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#1466675 - 29/06/2018 16:52 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1726
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Access at least has heat building over northern Australia between Tuesday and Friday next week. Could bring a bit of warmth south....

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#1466678 - 29/06/2018 18:55 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5243
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Had 9.1mm from that overnight storm, bringing my monthly total to 379.9mm and nearly just like that I'm up to 801.1 mm for year to date, now only 80 odd mm behind.
June 2018 was the first month of above rainfall since last last June 2017 when 351.6mm fell.
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#1466679 - 29/06/2018 18:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7127
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Heat wave? Where's the heat coming from? Alice Springs struggled to 22c today? That's usually the indicator I use for possible heat as that's where it'll draw from.


Well, 22 deg's is a heatwave in July.


Especially considering the Alice is nearly 600m ASL.

We should be looking at mid 20's on the coast around our areas come Thursday which is also quite warm for July. I am quite keen for the warmth! Then it can go back to cold winter again.


Edited by Wave Rider (29/06/2018 18:59)
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#1466685 - 29/06/2018 23:05 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Homer]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3859
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Heat wave? Where's the heat coming from? Alice Springs struggled to 22c today? That's usually the indicator I use for possible heat as that's where it'll draw from.


Well, 22 deg's is a heatwave in July.


Above average, but not really a heatwave. Alice Springs has reached 31.6 in both June and July (it only missed its June record by 0.3 three weeks ago).

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#1466692 - 30/06/2018 06:57 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Homer]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1223
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Heat wave? Where's the heat coming from? Alice Springs struggled to 22c today? That's usually the indicator I use for possible heat as that's where it'll draw from.


Well, 22 deg's is a heatwave in July.


Well, in particular the 1st week in July, which is leading towards the coldest days of the year, around the 8th-10th July.
Most July heat records are in the last week of July, apart from the northern half and NE of the state, which can be any time of the month.
Still, it will turn cold again, as we have seen with early July heat before. (eg 1994, which turned very cold and nasty after early July warmth)
Still, very much looking forward to some 22-23C days though by the end of next week, almost shoulder season weather!


Edited by DerekHV (30/06/2018 06:59)

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#1466693 - 30/06/2018 07:18 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It’s at the end of the outlook for starters & given how models behaved with this rain event I wouldn’t be trusting it.

Coldest morning in 3 years in Wollongong with 6.8 recorded.

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#1466698 - 30/06/2018 07:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7127
Originally Posted By: Kino

Coldest morning in 3 years in Wollongong with 6.8 recorded.


Thats quite amazing actually, given that Albion Park wasn't particularly cold because of a westerly breeze most the night. Maybe it is that westerly that allowed the cold to reach the extreme coast at Bellambi.
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#1466699 - 30/06/2018 08:01 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Sidney Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 615
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
thickest frost ive seen this year this morning. entire car frozen apart from the wheels.

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#1466704 - 30/06/2018 11:13 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4651
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few places around Sydney got their coldest morning of the month:

Bankstown 2.4; Olympic Park 3.3; Canterbury 2.5

Places that aren't much affected by inversions (e.g. Sydney OH) warmed up before dawn when the breeze picked up and weren't quite as cold as the last few mornings. The usual frosty hollows were also a little warmer than the last few mornings.

It's been a bright, sunny morning. I think the BOM might have underestimated today's forecast for Sydney. It's already 15 at OH, I think it will pass 20, maybe 21.

EDIT: Sydney OH finished near 50% above its June average rainfall. Inland areas seem to have been about average. I'll crunch some numbers later.


Edited by Steve777 (30/06/2018 11:16)

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#1466707 - 30/06/2018 12:04 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2914
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
We had our warmest morning of the week here only dropping to 7.9c around 4am, and that was only because of a very brief lull in the northerly breeze. After which time it kicked in again causing the temp to rise and hover around 9c until the sun came up.
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#1466710 - 30/06/2018 13:31 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 557
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looking pretty bad for July to September, will probably be quick start to the fire season and a lot more pain for farmers. I wonder if this drought can be ranked worse then the 1982-83 drought.


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#1466717 - 30/06/2018 16:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7127
Yeah not good at all, and the 28 day rain forecast (which I take with a grain of salt) shows a 50% or less chance of rain until July 22nd.
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#1466719 - 30/06/2018 16:58 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That outlook was absolutely wrong for June, why would you trust it now?

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#1466720 - 30/06/2018 17:12 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 557
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Temperatures will be published tomorrow but i'm pretty sure the rainfall stats are not completely wrong.

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#1466721 - 30/06/2018 17:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4651
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the Sydney 15 day forecast from the Weather Channel:



I think it applies to the Airport. I think it's generally pretty accurate in the first week, with the second week tending to be always close to the seasonal average. It also tends to be a little on the cool side of outcomes.

The first week is more or less consistent with the BOM 7 day forecast just issued. The second week looks rather cool. One point to note is that both weeks look quite dry, with all days have a rainfall probability of 0, 10% or 20%.

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#1466740 - 01/07/2018 09:10 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1223
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here's the Sydney 15 day forecast from the Weather Channel:



I think it applies to the Airport. I think it's generally pretty accurate in the first week, with the second week tending to be always close to the seasonal average. It also tends to be a little on the cool side of outcomes.

The first week is more or less consistent with the BOM 7 day forecast just issued. The second week looks rather cool. One point to note is that both weeks look quite dry, with all days have a rainfall probability of 0, 10% or 20%.


Temps now downgraded for the end of next week that means.
Nothing spectacular now for the first week of July, then back to genuinely cold weather from July 8 onwards.

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#1466742 - 01/07/2018 11:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7127
Temps are struggling in lower areas and valleys this morning. Many mountain tops are warmer than places that are much lower.

At 11am: Mt Boyce 9, Goulburn 4 (probably still foggy there in fact), and Cowra 7. Wagga also 6 probably with fog.


Edited by Wave Rider (01/07/2018 11:14)
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#1466751 - 01/07/2018 17:48 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5243
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Well it got dark real quick here today, like street lights on at 3.30pm and it needed to be too!! I reckon the temp struggled to get to 15c after some early morning sun gave way to that north-west cloud band that hasn't produced any rain here although the way it was thickening up late this evening, I think its only a matter of time before some precip falls.
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