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#839982 - 01/03/2010 21:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Olaf]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1654
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Impresseive rainfall statistics coming out of queensland. Soaking the ground it is, flooding rivers and creeks it is, Yoda can see the flooding force doing good for the river Murray he can.

But blind Freddy can see what direction that low is moving and by tommorow morning it will be around the south east queensland area, dropping catastrophic (can i use that word?) amounts of rain throughout. Watch your news reports peoples, your going to see some interesting water featurs over the next few days smile

Don't want to be a spoil sport but as for rain from the north east for Adelaide. Come on you must be kidding? not a chance!. Even the eastern parts of the state better pick a number and cross your fingers. Even ROVES will be looking through binnoculars to the east I would suggest.

Watch that system out in the west and then what comes up behind it. As what others have said, some showers from the south west for Adelaide, better than a kick in the bum i suppose. Surprising early cool weather. I would expect a return to warmer weather for a few more weeks yet.

Great link to the pics there storm deprived smile thumbs up mate!

Note: i will note that there is some residual tropical moisture around the far nothern border districts, but it's energy has been spent so not expecting too much to happen with that.


Edited by Weather Guru (01/03/2010 22:08)
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 10.2 mm
Feb 3.9 mm
Mar 6.3 mm
Apr 14.8
May 20.7
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018 55.9 mm
2017 487.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#840018 - 01/03/2010 22:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Guru]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3639
Loc: Salisbury North SA
Well I'm trying to collect the temperature etc...from the sensor and the main station is saying it's raining outside LOL poke

I am loving this cooler weather, currently 18C outside my joint, smile

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#840063 - 01/03/2010 23:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Sarah_]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1910
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
Cape Willoughby has claimed w/zones windiest title atm with 41 knot winds, gusting to 48knots. At home wind speed drops to around 16 knots, but after a short interval rapidly builds up around 30 knots. Quite musical outside with various rattles etc.

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#840134 - 02/03/2010 06:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: liz]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1654
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Sarah, i think you'll find that the weather station is trying to tell you a 'tendency' or forecast for rain over the next day or so. Mine is also showing rain but i know this is wrong. Check closer on the screen near the rain icon and it may have a word near it like 'tendancy' or similar.
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 10.2 mm
Feb 3.9 mm
Mar 6.3 mm
Apr 14.8
May 20.7
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018 55.9 mm
2017 487.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#840204 - 02/03/2010 09:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Guru]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Thanks re the link to the pics WG, they are certainly some great shots, thats what a storm looks like coming through the metro area, I had forgotten smile

Lets hope one sneaks over the ranges Thursday night...

My opinion....

Don't lose hope on the tropical moisture just yet, keep an eye on the upper trough which should make it self well visible tonight/tomorrow in Central North SA, this will draw the moisture from the North back in pretty quickly from the feed that is supplying the Low, East of ranges still a chance of rain periods, it may be more like showers & storms which could be more interesting smile.. But I can't see west of the ranges getting bugger all!

The sooner we see something develop in the North of SA, the more chance we have of getting rain locally

Littlehampton may get a nice drink smile smile
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#840237 - 02/03/2010 10:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Olaf]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
You are spot on re. the upper trough SD, but unfortunately it wont be enough now to bring any rains close to us. Basically NE of Oodnadatta/Pt Augusta/Waikerie/Bordertown will see it.

Run this loop to see the current GFS rainfall accumulation prog: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...CHIV=0&WMO=

Although if you have a look at the other models there, they are a little more encouraging at least for east of the ranges.


Latest BOM Notes:
On Thursday the remnants of the monsoonal low will move south along the eastern border, causing areas of rain east of Port Augusta to Victor Harbour. More significant rain areas are expected east of the Murray River with possible local
heavy falls over southern parts of the Northeast Pastoral and the Riverland districts.
Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Saturday are expected to be 2-5 mm over agricultural districts and east of Oodnadatta to Port Augusta, increasing to 10-20 mm on and east of the ranges, the Northeast Pastoral and the South
East, with local falls of up to 50 mm possible about the eastern border north of Keith.


Edited by teckert (02/03/2010 12:18)

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#840266 - 02/03/2010 12:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
Thanks for posting that cool loop TE cool
Welcome to the forums Chaser smile
As usual in late summer I've been impressed this year by the persistence of the south-easterlies - it's as close as we come to a prevailing wind in southern SA I think, along with winds from the westerly quarter in winter. The forces which maintain the south-easterlies in late summer are not all obvious on the surface charts - has to do with the monsoon activity and a trough over the east of Australia I think.
Chris did you get a time lapse of those mammatus in action? (I may have missed a post of yours)
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#840311 - 02/03/2010 15:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
latest BSCH models still look allright stormwise with that coldront due friday arvo, and it seems that's our best chance of some rain rather than the rainband on thursday night. I hope we can get a good start to Autumn anyway. We all need it. smile
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#840314 - 02/03/2010 15:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weathergod]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Thursday is looking quite interesting rainfall wise with 20-40 mms expected for Mount Gambier although i wouldnt rule out just yet the possibility of more than 50 mms in isolated downpours

Thank god i am going to collect my computer from PC Zone tomorrow turns out the wrong USB and Video cards were installed and not up to date so the techs there did all of that and then some grin

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#840322 - 02/03/2010 16:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: rstewart84]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 735
Loc: Munno Para, Northern Suburbs
I wish that I was optimistic WG, can see showers on/off maybe heavy at times but all over the place atm...

Further down South past Keith higher totals a maybe? ( hard too tell ) these days, as for Northern Suburbs I don't know...

Maybe has something to do with that rather Country size junck of ice that's been jarred loose from Antarctica or will do evillaugh nerd

I hope we get a 100 year flood shortly ... I'm crazy

cheers

Steve

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#840328 - 02/03/2010 16:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Stargate]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 735
Loc: Munno Para, Northern Suburbs
Ran out of time to edit,

I hope not for a flood but steady rain over several days, What has happened to our weather patterns??

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#840355 - 02/03/2010 17:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Stargate]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: Stargate (Steve)
....What has happened to our weather patterns??


steve i seem to remember a quiet rumor mentioned a while back
referring to something called climate change, i personally
don't think the idea will catch on but if you google it there
may be some light reading out there to find out more.

to all.....
might be a good idea not to hyperventilate over that cold
front regarding both storms and rain, it's done well to get
up here but it'll be out of puff when it arrives and the
wheels will fall off real quick.

TH
雷自殺的瘋狂獵人和白色
指關節猛衝與球的追趕者
并且我的生日打开行军第九
*̡͌l̡*̡̡ ̴̡ı̴̴̡ ̡̡͡|̲̲̲͡͡͡ ̲▫̲͡ ̲̲̲͡͡π̲̲͡͡ ̲̲͡▫̲̲͡͡ ̲|̡̡̡ ̡ ̴̡ı̴̡̡ *̡͌l̡*
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#840360 - 02/03/2010 17:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yep I reckon the city will be lucky to see 2mm between now and Monday! Nothing out of Thurs stuff and diddly squat from the weekend....
Riverland looking good for a substantial drink though.....

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#840406 - 02/03/2010 19:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
It's very very rare we see a Eastern weather event give us breaking rains, so the fact that they forecasted this to happen & now it's not isn't a real surprise.

Best chance..
Keep an eye on the trough & what it drags in tonight/tomorrow especially along the Eastern border , if the cold front slows which is possible as TH said its ran out of puff, & or the suck back trough drags in the moisture quickly which it has already started to do quite nicely, this will give us a slim chance of some rain or showers locally from Thursday night/Friday

The slim hope I will hang on to smile
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#840414 - 02/03/2010 20:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 735
Loc: Munno Para, Northern Suburbs
I agree Tim, We will be lucky too dampen the way things are being down graded, in SA Metro it's not alarming...

Stargate

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#840442 - 02/03/2010 21:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1659
Loc: Adelaide
I think the frustrating thing this year is the fact that everything that has developed up north has headed east and not south! It's by no means the driest start to the year in Adelaide mind you, this is a list of drier years to the 3rd of March:

1957 0.5
1848 0.6
1893 0.8
1910 2.1
1965 2.3
1854 3.4
2009 3.4
1985 4.6
1860 4.7
1980 5.4
1989 6.2
1920 6.7
1865 7.2
1879 7.3
1849 7.4
1906 7.6
1882 7.7
1978 9.4
1986 9.6
1874 10.1
1888 11.3
1930 11.4
1845 11.5
1958 11.7
2008 12.0
1971 12.5
1907 12.6
1961 13.1
1999 13.2
1883 13.3
1929 13.3
1918 14.7
1851 14.8
1912 15.0
2004 15.0


Edited by Max Record (02/03/2010 21:15)
_________________________
2017: 478.0mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#840456 - 02/03/2010 22:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Max Record]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Ive got high hopes for this system though it wouldn't suprise me at all if not much happens as that is the norm these days still.
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#840499 - 02/03/2010 23:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: roves]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
There's still a couple of days until this system actually reaches us so there is plenty of time for the models to change. Whether or not they will perhaps change in our favour is yet to be seen, but I'd even be happy with 5mm at the moment with the way that the weather has been going lately...

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#840516 - 03/03/2010 00:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3639
Loc: Salisbury North SA
I'm happy with 1mm...atm..5mm will be a bonus grin

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#840536 - 03/03/2010 06:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Sarah_]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9659
Loc: Mid North, SA
Been 7 weeks since we had any rain here, discounting the 0.6mm we had last month which doesn't really constitute as rain.
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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