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#1470546 - 10/09/2018 06:18 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1132
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Mmmmmm, latest EC has Mangkhut hitting the Pearl River Delta as a major Category 5 typhoon, with it beings the world largest urban area with nearly 100 million people this could be an absolute catastrophe...

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#1470552 - 10/09/2018 09:19 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5241
Loc: Diamond Valley
I saw this Pete, and it's not good. GFS is forecasting a similar path and intensity. With now Hurricane Florence barrelling towards the Carolinas these systems will make for very sobering headlines.
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#1470569 - 10/09/2018 17:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Things starting to look a little grim for the US East Coast particularly around the Carolinas and potentially further North to New York.

Some areas could get upwards of 40 inches of rain and wind gusts approaching 300kmh based on current GFS.

Meanwhile Mangkhut is looking like a monster in the Pacific.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1470570 - 10/09/2018 17:32 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've been checking the new GFS (FV3) quite regularly with this one and have to say it seems much more realistic and closer to EC from run to run.

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#1470571 - 10/09/2018 18:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD


Mangkhut:


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#1470572 - 10/09/2018 18:24 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The latest EC run takes the eye of Mangkhut literally right over Hong Kong....

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#1470579 - 10/09/2018 20:13 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Be interesting how far all them tall structures bend. Good luck to them.

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#1470589 - 11/09/2018 06:36 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Florence looks amazing this morning, viewed from the Space Station via NASA:


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#1470592 - 11/09/2018 07:36 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Really not a good situation for USA or China.

Florence should make landfall on the Carolinas, but EC and GFS really differ. EC goes for a straight landfall around 950 hpa. GFS looks far worse. It goes down toward 910 hpa and the real problem is that it stays fairly stationary for 4-5 days as it is blocked. If it's slightly offshore it will just direct huge winds and storm surge onto the coasts. If onshore lots of rain just like Harvey.

Mangkhut looks nasty whatever model you look at and yet it's getting very little coverage in the media at all. It will surely be more destructive than Florence.

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#1470593 - 11/09/2018 07:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, FV3 stalls it near the coastline for days as well. Thankfully EC does not agree.....yet.

Don't even get me started on Mangkhut...that thing just looks nasty.

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#1470595 - 11/09/2018 10:11 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Both Hong Kong and China are well set-up to cope with tropical cyclones (and I suspect, but don't know for sure, that the undersea topography is not as favourable for storm surges as, say, the US east or Gulf coasts). Even so, a direct hit at category 4/5 intensity would be a significant issue.

Macau took a significant hit from an intensifying typhoon last year. When I was looking into its impacts, I saw a reference somewhere to indirect economic losses estimated at US$400 million. I suspect a substantial proportion of this was money which was not lost in Macau's casinos...

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#1470603 - 11/09/2018 13:43 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5241
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I suspect a substantial proportion of this was money which was not lost in Macau's casinos...


laugh

Then let's hope this system doesn't 'Packer' a punch.
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#1470608 - 11/09/2018 17:11 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow. EC is now stalling Florence pretty much right on the coast for a few days before finally moving on early next week.

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#1470610 - 11/09/2018 17:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7327
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Great twitter thread by Phil Papin on why GFS still has Florence further north than FV3 & ECMWF.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

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#1470613 - 11/09/2018 17:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2837
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That is incredible cheers!

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#1470629 - 12/09/2018 07:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1132
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
EC going for places like Wilmington and Jacksonville in North Carolina to receive 500-700mm over a 2 day period on Friday/Saturday week which would be a catastrophe for them...

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#1470637 - 12/09/2018 10:52 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow if Florence keep going and stalls as forecast it will have serious flooding as Pete28 said.
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#1470644 - 12/09/2018 12:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2837
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Edited by Kino (12/09/2018 12:50)

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#1470648 - 12/09/2018 13:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5241
Loc: Diamond Valley
Both the major models of EC and GFS are now of some consensus that a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States will block the forward momentum of Florence, menacingly stalling her off the coast. I'm not sure why this has not been reflected in the track map, but the devil is in the detail with the NHC's discussion pointing out
Quote:
"due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast"
. EC continues to forecast rain of up to 750mm over three days around Wilmington, North Carolina, which indicates a slow moving system.


Edited by Inclement Weather (12/09/2018 13:41)
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#1470651 - 12/09/2018 14:12 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Kino]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1115
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Yeah its an interesting overlay...but there can be no real comparison between that Northern hemisphere coastline and our coastline here ...

It seems a bit bizarre that some of these places can get snow in the winter and a hurricane in the summer..

Hurricane Sandy was still Hurricane intensity up until 2-3 hours before landfall in New Jersey,just a little south of New York city...

Comparing latitudes alone that's a bit like a Cyclone sitting offshore of Hobart ...

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