Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
#1467082 - 08/07/2018 01:00 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Time to kick this off I think as Typhoon Maria looms in the Philippine Sea and is forecast to maintain its current strength (or only slightly weaken) while heading west towards Taiwan and the SE coast of China. Been watching this one for a few days and models have clearly shifted southward with each day - both EC and GFS now even have a landfall on the northern coast of Taiwan. JTWC has it missing Taiwan to the north but I wouldn't be surprised if that was revised further south in future updates.

GFS:



EC:



JTWC track:


Top
#1467180 - 10/07/2018 23:20 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like just missing Taiwan after all so good news there. JTWC spot on.

Top
#1467911 - 28/07/2018 02:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Quote:
After Floods and Heatwave, Japan Braces for Typhoon Jongdari

Typhoon Jongdari is set to make landfall on Japan’s mainland this weekend, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to much of a country hit in recent weeks by a deadly heatwave and historic flooding.

The typhoon was located off Chichijima, an island in the Pacific about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) southeast of Tokyo, as of 2 p.m. Japan time Friday. Carrying sustained winds of 144 kilometers (89 miles) per hour, it’s expected to speed up and maintain its intensity as it nears the mainland on Saturday afternoon, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.


Typhoon Jongdari is set to hit Japan this weekend.Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
After skirting Tokyo on Saturday, the typhoon is predicted to track towards the west of the country, near regions that were the worst hit by the historic rain and flooding. More than two hundred were killed in the floods, with some roads still impassable and train lines suspended.

“It’s possible that the typhoon could have a very large impact” on the flood-hit areas, a spokesman for the Japan Meteorological Agency said, and while the agency has yet to issue any specific warnings for these areas, it could do so over the weekend.

For now, the agency is warning many regions of strong rainfall of up to 500 millimeters over 24 hours, and urging people to be on guard for the risk of landslides and flooding. Tokyo’s Sumidagawa fireworks festival, which attracts close to a million visitors, has been postponed to Sunday as a result of the approaching storm.

Jongdari would be the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Japan this year. Recent years have seen an increase in the number of typhoons directly hitting Japan, with at least four in each of the past four years.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...man-dies-at-117

Upper low interaction...like a slingshot, straight into Japan:


Top
#1467912 - 28/07/2018 03:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I wish we could embed tweets on here...but Phil Papin has been putting out some really cool tweets on this one:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1022088005798916096

Top
#1467930 - 28/07/2018 17:06 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

Top
#1467938 - 29/07/2018 02:30 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
BOOM:


Top
#1468295 - 04/08/2018 20:37 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here we go again:

Quote:
Typhoon Shanshan to threaten Japan next week


As the storm begins to approach eastern Japan early next week, rough seas and surf will begin to reach the eastern coastline of Japan and also threaten shipping interests in the region.

There are two scenarios for Shanshan’s track next week, each with significantly different impacts to Japan.

The first scenario would take Shanshan, as a powerful typhoon, westward into or near the east coast of Honshu. The storm could reach a strength equal to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and east Pacific oceans.

This would bring significant impacts to the Japan mainland with the greatest risk for damaging winds and flooding rainfall across eastern and northern Honshu, including the Greater Tokyo Area.

Impacts to land would begin as early as Tuesday night with the worst and most widespread impacts from Wednesday into Thursday.

Parts of this threat area recently endured flooding and locally damaging winds from former Typhoon Jongdari.

Another round of heavy rainfall and strong winds could result in widespread power outages and tree damage, along with an elevated risk for mudslides and transportation disruptions.

RELATED:
Japan Weather Center
Interactive Japan weather radar
VIDEO: How and when are tropical systems named?

The other scenario would take Shanshan northward more quickly, allowing it to continue on a north to northeast track through the middle of next week and keeping it several hundred miles to the east of Japan.

This would still result in rough seas and surf around Japan while keeping the threat for damaging winds offshore.

The outer rain bands from Shanshan would either miss Japan all together or graze coastal areas, limiting the risk for any flooding problems.

The exact track of Shanshan will determine the severity of the impacts on Japan, so check back to AccuWeather.com in the coming days for additional updates on this tropical threat.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-shanshan-to-threaten-japan-next-week/70005681

GFS (strong, almost right over Tokyo):


EC (weaker, much further south):

Top
#1469052 - 18/08/2018 15:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Models seem to be edging towards a direct hit on South Korea for Typhoon Soulik next week...EC weakens it slightly prior to landfall but it gets down to 936hpa on the way in. Nasty.

Top
#1469060 - 18/08/2018 17:09 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC now with an almost direct hit on Seoul. GFS east coast. The recurve is going to make exact landfall location very very tricky.

Top
#1469289 - 21/08/2018 17:56 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Typhoons Soulik and Cimaron:




Top
#1469290 - 21/08/2018 18:12 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD


Top
#1469293 - 21/08/2018 18:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Soulik on radar - massive eye:


Top
#1469873 - 01/09/2018 04:42 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And the award for strongest typhoon yet of 2018 no doubt goes to Jebi. Will barrel its way towards Japan over the next few days while weakening but should still be quite a nasty system as it makes landfall:







Top
#1469919 - 01/09/2018 17:21 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1873
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow that's got a clearly defined eye.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1470011 - 03/09/2018 11:58 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Cat 3 now but still very dangerous. Expected to produce 80 odd knots sustained gusting to 100 at landfall which looks like being near Kyoto / Osaka sometime tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is finally waking up:


Top
#1470291 - 06/09/2018 17:59 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Models showing yet ANOTHER significant typhoon in the works through the Asia Pacific next week.

The Atlantic is also continuing to come alive led by Cat 4 Hurricane Florence which some models cross the east coast of the US next week. Others keep it offshore. Either way, the NH basins sure puts our pathetic east coast basin to shame (prove me wrong this season, Coral Sea).

Top
#1470406 - 07/09/2018 18:44 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Both EC and GFS looking very very nasty for Taiwan next weekend. Still a lot of time to shift north or south but either way, that's one serious typhoon that both models are showing.

And back in the Atlantic, Hurricane Florence was smashed by wind shear last night which led to a downgrade of the system, but shear is expected to abate as Florence continues its journey toward the east coast of the USA. Bermuda also under threat by this one.


Top
#1470443 - 08/09/2018 02:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea certainly liking the Typhoon that's being progged, could well end up the strongest of the lot yet, certainly as potential landfalling one at least, less westerly belt capture and more traditional steering.

TS cool

Top
#1470514 - 09/09/2018 13:59 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2222
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
If GFS and EC is anything to go by Hurricane Florence could be a major disaster event for eastern USA. Its North Carolina as a Cat 4 and then sits on the coast and wobbles around for 4 days before moving NE over Delaware, New York, Maine and Newfoundland dumping a lot of rain.

And wow what a typhoon. GFS going for 870 on Taiwan landfall. Even with GFS's usual exaggeration that's going to be powerful.

Next week could be historic for cyclones.


Edited by Nature's Fury (09/09/2018 14:02)

Top
#1470545 - 10/09/2018 04:57 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This morning it's looking like;

Mangkhut = just south of Hong Kong as a strong typhoon.
Florence = South Carolina / North Carolina border as a major hurricane.

Top
Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >


Who's Online
10 registered (Perfect Storm, A sunshower, Jimi, Eevo, balmz, mysteriousbrad, Bergasms, 3 invisible), 76 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502908 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image