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#1470661 - 12/09/2018 17:19 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Haha that's insane hey. We're flat out getting our cyclones to reach any lower than CQ let alone the southern NSW coast.

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Both the major models of EC and GFS are now of some consensus that a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States will block the forward momentum of Florence, menacingly stalling her off the coast. I'm not sure why this has not been reflected in the track map, but the devil is in the detail with the NHC's discussion pointing out
Quote:
"due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast"
. EC continues to forecast rain of up to 750mm over three days around Wilmington, North Carolina, which indicates a slow moving system.


Catastrophic would be one way of putting it if it were to happen.

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#1470663 - 12/09/2018 17:39 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Yeah its an interesting overlay...but there can be no real comparison between that Northern hemisphere coastline and our coastline here ...

It seems a bit bizarre that some of these places can get snow in the winter and a hurricane in the summer..

Hurricane Sandy was still Hurricane intensity up until 2-3 hours before landfall in New Jersey,just a little south of New York city...

Comparing latitudes alone that's a bit like a Cyclone sitting offshore of Hobart ...


I can understand their winters being so much colder and snowier given the much broader landmass that extends up to the north pole. But what I sort of don't understand is why Atlantic steering often allows for hurricanes to reach such high latitudes of the US compared to Australia and the Coral Sea? What causes their jetstream to retreat so far north whereas ours just sits there over NSW and southern QLD all year long?
I am constantly in awe of all of the different types of weather they seem to experience in the NH. Ours just pales in comparison.

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#1470673 - 13/09/2018 06:24 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
I'm interested to get some feedback on this hypothesis. Some researchers are saying that Hurricane Florence is being steered in a coastal direction by an unusual blocking high to the north

From this article - https://thinkprogress.org/global-warming...r-e125cad60819/

"The path of Florence has been extremely unusual. As Philip Klotzbach, an Atlantic hurricane expert, tweeted on Friday, “33 named storms (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Florence’s current position. None of these storms made US landfall. The closest approach was Hurricane George (1950) — the highlighted track [in white].”

Why is this blocking high allegedly having such an impact?

“Our new study does indeed add to the growing pile of evidence that amplified Arctic warming and sea-ice loss favor the formation of blocking high pressure features in the North Atlantic."
- Dr Francis, Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences

I'm not too well versed in weather patterns, but I know the effect that blocking highs often seem to have with regard to rain patterns here on the east coast of Australia. So I'm wondering if a blocking high could be preventing Hurricane Florence from moving north and away from the US east coast, and could this high be a little different to historical patterns due to changes in the jet stream and possible Arctic warming?

Thoughts?
_________________________
Camp Hill, Brisbane
View live weather station data: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IQUEENSL152

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#1470676 - 13/09/2018 07:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: DarrylS]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Can't believe there's no media coverage of Typhoon Mangkhut. It's down to 898 mb and predicted to hit Northern Philippines and then South-East China.

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#1470683 - 13/09/2018 10:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
Is Hurricane Florence undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at the moment?

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#1470684 - 13/09/2018 11:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Had one yesterday. Max winds reduced a bit but with a much wider windfield according to latest tech notes this morning.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/09/2018 11:11)

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#1470697 - 13/09/2018 16:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Typhoon Mangkhut has really shown its severity, 1 minute sustained winds of 180mph or 290km/h and gusts of 355km/h. That is insane

Could almost call it the first Category 6

http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-we...ustained-winds/


Edited by StormCapture (13/09/2018 16:53)

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#1470698 - 13/09/2018 17:25 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 98
Loc: Ayr
That is amazing & totally scary!

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#1470699 - 13/09/2018 17:27 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Florence:



And god damn...her new eye is going to be massive if she can pull off a full ERC:


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#1470700 - 13/09/2018 17:30 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As for Mangkhut...truly incredible. Josh from iCyclone decided to chase it over Florence...somehow I don't think he'll be disappointed!

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#1470706 - 13/09/2018 19:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just a big WOW!
Reall hoping the Coral Sea doesnt throw one of those monsters at us this summer, no matter how bad we need the rain. (Oh, we do need rain but not 250k+ winds)!

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#1470709 - 13/09/2018 19:44 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest tech note recons eyewall on SE side collapsed, says due to temporary shear in a low shear environment?
Max expected wind gusts 105kts instead of 140 or so?
Dont know about anyone else but something isnt right here. You could blame african dust it has ingested in middle atlantic.
Something fishy here.
Maybe because of its size, land interaction is now a factor?
Atlantic getting very crowded atm, Joyce way east of Flo atm.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/09/2018 19:50)

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#1470717 - 13/09/2018 21:02 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I'm surprised how much Florence has weakened.

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#1470719 - 13/09/2018 22:03 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, something not right.

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#1470724 - 14/09/2018 08:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 98
Loc: Ayr
Just looked at water vapour, radar on Florence & can see a big curve of intensity on the side away from the coast, what is that & it’s it related to the eye wall issues??

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#1470730 - 14/09/2018 13:28 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Mangy getting mentioned at last, gona smash North Phillipines with 280k winds & has a massive 125km wide eye. Nasty.
Makes Flo look miniature.

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#1470731 - 14/09/2018 15:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1470732 - 14/09/2018 15:42 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sure has weakened considerably.

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#1470741 - 14/09/2018 20:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Mangkhut (Omgpong) is certainly an impressive specimen, hardcore cat 5 super typhoon, up there with Meranti, Megi, Nepartak etc, the production line has just rolled another truck tyre off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/html5-rbtop-short.html

Few chasers that I know are there at the tip ready for the intercept and they have nailed it as the eye is going bang on for that region, looks like the start of an ERC is happening now prior to landfall which probably shaves 25-30knots off it but still a beast on impact. Josh is gunna be up against it getting all the way up there from Manilla after leaving it a bit late!

Tutt cell to east now no longer giving the outflow and impedement on the NW flank but core still blowing up some very cold tops, seas 29-30C low shear, will still be a big impact...the next step will be interesing because the fairly swift NW correction earlier has now brought Hong Kong back into the game for a fair impact....the less land it hits at Luzon the worse it gets for Hong Kong.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (14/09/2018 20:30)

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#1470745 - 14/09/2018 23:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This is just scary (Mangkhut):



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