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#1467082 - 08/07/2018 01:00 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Time to kick this off I think as Typhoon Maria looms in the Philippine Sea and is forecast to maintain its current strength (or only slightly weaken) while heading west towards Taiwan and the SE coast of China. Been watching this one for a few days and models have clearly shifted southward with each day - both EC and GFS now even have a landfall on the northern coast of Taiwan. JTWC has it missing Taiwan to the north but I wouldn't be surprised if that was revised further south in future updates.

GFS:



EC:



JTWC track:


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#1467180 - 10/07/2018 23:20 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like just missing Taiwan after all so good news there. JTWC spot on.

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#1467911 - 28/07/2018 02:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Quote:
After Floods and Heatwave, Japan Braces for Typhoon Jongdari

Typhoon Jongdari is set to make landfall on Japan’s mainland this weekend, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to much of a country hit in recent weeks by a deadly heatwave and historic flooding.

The typhoon was located off Chichijima, an island in the Pacific about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) southeast of Tokyo, as of 2 p.m. Japan time Friday. Carrying sustained winds of 144 kilometers (89 miles) per hour, it’s expected to speed up and maintain its intensity as it nears the mainland on Saturday afternoon, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.


Typhoon Jongdari is set to hit Japan this weekend.Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
After skirting Tokyo on Saturday, the typhoon is predicted to track towards the west of the country, near regions that were the worst hit by the historic rain and flooding. More than two hundred were killed in the floods, with some roads still impassable and train lines suspended.

“It’s possible that the typhoon could have a very large impact” on the flood-hit areas, a spokesman for the Japan Meteorological Agency said, and while the agency has yet to issue any specific warnings for these areas, it could do so over the weekend.

For now, the agency is warning many regions of strong rainfall of up to 500 millimeters over 24 hours, and urging people to be on guard for the risk of landslides and flooding. Tokyo’s Sumidagawa fireworks festival, which attracts close to a million visitors, has been postponed to Sunday as a result of the approaching storm.

Jongdari would be the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Japan this year. Recent years have seen an increase in the number of typhoons directly hitting Japan, with at least four in each of the past four years.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...man-dies-at-117

Upper low interaction...like a slingshot, straight into Japan:


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#1467912 - 28/07/2018 03:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I wish we could embed tweets on here...but Phil Papin has been putting out some really cool tweets on this one:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1022088005798916096

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#1467930 - 28/07/2018 17:06 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1467938 - 29/07/2018 02:30 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
BOOM:


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#1468295 - 04/08/2018 20:37 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here we go again:

Quote:
Typhoon Shanshan to threaten Japan next week


As the storm begins to approach eastern Japan early next week, rough seas and surf will begin to reach the eastern coastline of Japan and also threaten shipping interests in the region.

There are two scenarios for Shanshan’s track next week, each with significantly different impacts to Japan.

The first scenario would take Shanshan, as a powerful typhoon, westward into or near the east coast of Honshu. The storm could reach a strength equal to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and east Pacific oceans.

This would bring significant impacts to the Japan mainland with the greatest risk for damaging winds and flooding rainfall across eastern and northern Honshu, including the Greater Tokyo Area.

Impacts to land would begin as early as Tuesday night with the worst and most widespread impacts from Wednesday into Thursday.

Parts of this threat area recently endured flooding and locally damaging winds from former Typhoon Jongdari.

Another round of heavy rainfall and strong winds could result in widespread power outages and tree damage, along with an elevated risk for mudslides and transportation disruptions.

RELATED:
Japan Weather Center
Interactive Japan weather radar
VIDEO: How and when are tropical systems named?

The other scenario would take Shanshan northward more quickly, allowing it to continue on a north to northeast track through the middle of next week and keeping it several hundred miles to the east of Japan.

This would still result in rough seas and surf around Japan while keeping the threat for damaging winds offshore.

The outer rain bands from Shanshan would either miss Japan all together or graze coastal areas, limiting the risk for any flooding problems.

The exact track of Shanshan will determine the severity of the impacts on Japan, so check back to AccuWeather.com in the coming days for additional updates on this tropical threat.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-shanshan-to-threaten-japan-next-week/70005681

GFS (strong, almost right over Tokyo):


EC (weaker, much further south):

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#1469052 - 18/08/2018 15:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Models seem to be edging towards a direct hit on South Korea for Typhoon Soulik next week...EC weakens it slightly prior to landfall but it gets down to 936hpa on the way in. Nasty.

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#1469060 - 18/08/2018 17:09 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC now with an almost direct hit on Seoul. GFS east coast. The recurve is going to make exact landfall location very very tricky.

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#1469289 - 21/08/2018 17:56 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Typhoons Soulik and Cimaron:




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#1469290 - 21/08/2018 18:12 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD


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#1469293 - 21/08/2018 18:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Soulik on radar - massive eye:


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#1469873 - 01/09/2018 04:42 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And the award for strongest typhoon yet of 2018 no doubt goes to Jebi. Will barrel its way towards Japan over the next few days while weakening but should still be quite a nasty system as it makes landfall:







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#1469919 - 01/09/2018 17:21 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow that's got a clearly defined eye.
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#1470011 - 03/09/2018 11:58 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Cat 3 now but still very dangerous. Expected to produce 80 odd knots sustained gusting to 100 at landfall which looks like being near Kyoto / Osaka sometime tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is finally waking up:


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#1470291 - 06/09/2018 17:59 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Models showing yet ANOTHER significant typhoon in the works through the Asia Pacific next week.

The Atlantic is also continuing to come alive led by Cat 4 Hurricane Florence which some models cross the east coast of the US next week. Others keep it offshore. Either way, the NH basins sure puts our pathetic east coast basin to shame (prove me wrong this season, Coral Sea).

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#1470406 - 07/09/2018 18:44 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Both EC and GFS looking very very nasty for Taiwan next weekend. Still a lot of time to shift north or south but either way, that's one serious typhoon that both models are showing.

And back in the Atlantic, Hurricane Florence was smashed by wind shear last night which led to a downgrade of the system, but shear is expected to abate as Florence continues its journey toward the east coast of the USA. Bermuda also under threat by this one.


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#1470443 - 08/09/2018 02:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea certainly liking the Typhoon that's being progged, could well end up the strongest of the lot yet, certainly as potential landfalling one at least, less westerly belt capture and more traditional steering.

TS cool

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#1470514 - 09/09/2018 13:59 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
If GFS and EC is anything to go by Hurricane Florence could be a major disaster event for eastern USA. Its North Carolina as a Cat 4 and then sits on the coast and wobbles around for 4 days before moving NE over Delaware, New York, Maine and Newfoundland dumping a lot of rain.

And wow what a typhoon. GFS going for 870 on Taiwan landfall. Even with GFS's usual exaggeration that's going to be powerful.

Next week could be historic for cyclones.


Edited by Nature's Fury (09/09/2018 14:02)

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#1470545 - 10/09/2018 04:57 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This morning it's looking like;

Mangkhut = just south of Hong Kong as a strong typhoon.
Florence = South Carolina / North Carolina border as a major hurricane.

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#1470546 - 10/09/2018 06:18 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Mmmmmm, latest EC has Mangkhut hitting the Pearl River Delta as a major Category 5 typhoon, with it beings the world largest urban area with nearly 100 million people this could be an absolute catastrophe...

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#1470552 - 10/09/2018 09:19 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
I saw this Pete, and it's not good. GFS is forecasting a similar path and intensity. With now Hurricane Florence barrelling towards the Carolinas these systems will make for very sobering headlines.
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#1470569 - 10/09/2018 17:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Locke Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Things starting to look a little grim for the US East Coast particularly around the Carolinas and potentially further North to New York.

Some areas could get upwards of 40 inches of rain and wind gusts approaching 300kmh based on current GFS.

Meanwhile Mangkhut is looking like a monster in the Pacific.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1470570 - 10/09/2018 17:32 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've been checking the new GFS (FV3) quite regularly with this one and have to say it seems much more realistic and closer to EC from run to run.

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#1470571 - 10/09/2018 18:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD


Mangkhut:


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#1470572 - 10/09/2018 18:24 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The latest EC run takes the eye of Mangkhut literally right over Hong Kong....

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#1470579 - 10/09/2018 20:13 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Be interesting how far all them tall structures bend. Good luck to them.

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#1470589 - 11/09/2018 06:36 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Florence looks amazing this morning, viewed from the Space Station via NASA:


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#1470592 - 11/09/2018 07:36 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Really not a good situation for USA or China.

Florence should make landfall on the Carolinas, but EC and GFS really differ. EC goes for a straight landfall around 950 hpa. GFS looks far worse. It goes down toward 910 hpa and the real problem is that it stays fairly stationary for 4-5 days as it is blocked. If it's slightly offshore it will just direct huge winds and storm surge onto the coasts. If onshore lots of rain just like Harvey.

Mangkhut looks nasty whatever model you look at and yet it's getting very little coverage in the media at all. It will surely be more destructive than Florence.

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#1470593 - 11/09/2018 07:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, FV3 stalls it near the coastline for days as well. Thankfully EC does not agree.....yet.

Don't even get me started on Mangkhut...that thing just looks nasty.

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#1470595 - 11/09/2018 10:11 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Both Hong Kong and China are well set-up to cope with tropical cyclones (and I suspect, but don't know for sure, that the undersea topography is not as favourable for storm surges as, say, the US east or Gulf coasts). Even so, a direct hit at category 4/5 intensity would be a significant issue.

Macau took a significant hit from an intensifying typhoon last year. When I was looking into its impacts, I saw a reference somewhere to indirect economic losses estimated at US$400 million. I suspect a substantial proportion of this was money which was not lost in Macau's casinos...

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#1470603 - 11/09/2018 13:43 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I suspect a substantial proportion of this was money which was not lost in Macau's casinos...


laugh

Then let's hope this system doesn't 'Packer' a punch.
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#1470608 - 11/09/2018 17:11 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow. EC is now stalling Florence pretty much right on the coast for a few days before finally moving on early next week.

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#1470610 - 11/09/2018 17:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Great twitter thread by Phil Papin on why GFS still has Florence further north than FV3 & ECMWF.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

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#1470613 - 11/09/2018 17:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That is incredible cheers!

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#1470629 - 12/09/2018 07:41 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
EC going for places like Wilmington and Jacksonville in North Carolina to receive 500-700mm over a 2 day period on Friday/Saturday week which would be a catastrophe for them...

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#1470637 - 12/09/2018 10:52 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow if Florence keep going and stalls as forecast it will have serious flooding as Pete28 said.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470644 - 12/09/2018 12:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Edited by Kino (12/09/2018 12:50)

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#1470648 - 12/09/2018 13:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Both the major models of EC and GFS are now of some consensus that a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States will block the forward momentum of Florence, menacingly stalling her off the coast. I'm not sure why this has not been reflected in the track map, but the devil is in the detail with the NHC's discussion pointing out
Quote:
"due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast"
. EC continues to forecast rain of up to 750mm over three days around Wilmington, North Carolina, which indicates a slow moving system.


Edited by Inclement Weather (12/09/2018 13:41)
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#1470651 - 12/09/2018 14:12 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Kino]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1038
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Yeah its an interesting overlay...but there can be no real comparison between that Northern hemisphere coastline and our coastline here ...

It seems a bit bizarre that some of these places can get snow in the winter and a hurricane in the summer..

Hurricane Sandy was still Hurricane intensity up until 2-3 hours before landfall in New Jersey,just a little south of New York city...

Comparing latitudes alone that's a bit like a Cyclone sitting offshore of Hobart ...

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#1470661 - 12/09/2018 17:19 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Haha that's insane hey. We're flat out getting our cyclones to reach any lower than CQ let alone the southern NSW coast.

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Both the major models of EC and GFS are now of some consensus that a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States will block the forward momentum of Florence, menacingly stalling her off the coast. I'm not sure why this has not been reflected in the track map, but the devil is in the detail with the NHC's discussion pointing out
Quote:
"due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast"
. EC continues to forecast rain of up to 750mm over three days around Wilmington, North Carolina, which indicates a slow moving system.


Catastrophic would be one way of putting it if it were to happen.

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#1470663 - 12/09/2018 17:39 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Kino
Saw this - puts it into perspective. Cat 4 hitting direct on Wollongong. Never gunna happen.



Yeah its an interesting overlay...but there can be no real comparison between that Northern hemisphere coastline and our coastline here ...

It seems a bit bizarre that some of these places can get snow in the winter and a hurricane in the summer..

Hurricane Sandy was still Hurricane intensity up until 2-3 hours before landfall in New Jersey,just a little south of New York city...

Comparing latitudes alone that's a bit like a Cyclone sitting offshore of Hobart ...


I can understand their winters being so much colder and snowier given the much broader landmass that extends up to the north pole. But what I sort of don't understand is why Atlantic steering often allows for hurricanes to reach such high latitudes of the US compared to Australia and the Coral Sea? What causes their jetstream to retreat so far north whereas ours just sits there over NSW and southern QLD all year long?
I am constantly in awe of all of the different types of weather they seem to experience in the NH. Ours just pales in comparison.

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#1470673 - 13/09/2018 06:24 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
I'm interested to get some feedback on this hypothesis. Some researchers are saying that Hurricane Florence is being steered in a coastal direction by an unusual blocking high to the north

From this article - https://thinkprogress.org/global-warming...r-e125cad60819/

"The path of Florence has been extremely unusual. As Philip Klotzbach, an Atlantic hurricane expert, tweeted on Friday, “33 named storms (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Florence’s current position. None of these storms made US landfall. The closest approach was Hurricane George (1950) — the highlighted track [in white].”

Why is this blocking high allegedly having such an impact?

“Our new study does indeed add to the growing pile of evidence that amplified Arctic warming and sea-ice loss favor the formation of blocking high pressure features in the North Atlantic."
- Dr Francis, Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences

I'm not too well versed in weather patterns, but I know the effect that blocking highs often seem to have with regard to rain patterns here on the east coast of Australia. So I'm wondering if a blocking high could be preventing Hurricane Florence from moving north and away from the US east coast, and could this high be a little different to historical patterns due to changes in the jet stream and possible Arctic warming?

Thoughts?
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#1470676 - 13/09/2018 07:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: DarrylS]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Can't believe there's no media coverage of Typhoon Mangkhut. It's down to 898 mb and predicted to hit Northern Philippines and then South-East China.

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#1470683 - 13/09/2018 10:05 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
Is Hurricane Florence undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at the moment?

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#1470684 - 13/09/2018 11:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Had one yesterday. Max winds reduced a bit but with a much wider windfield according to latest tech notes this morning.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/09/2018 11:11)

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#1470697 - 13/09/2018 16:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Typhoon Mangkhut has really shown its severity, 1 minute sustained winds of 180mph or 290km/h and gusts of 355km/h. That is insane

Could almost call it the first Category 6

http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-we...ustained-winds/


Edited by StormCapture (13/09/2018 16:53)

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#1470698 - 13/09/2018 17:25 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 98
Loc: Ayr
That is amazing & totally scary!

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#1470699 - 13/09/2018 17:27 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Florence:



And god damn...her new eye is going to be massive if she can pull off a full ERC:


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#1470700 - 13/09/2018 17:30 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As for Mangkhut...truly incredible. Josh from iCyclone decided to chase it over Florence...somehow I don't think he'll be disappointed!

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#1470706 - 13/09/2018 19:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just a big WOW!
Reall hoping the Coral Sea doesnt throw one of those monsters at us this summer, no matter how bad we need the rain. (Oh, we do need rain but not 250k+ winds)!

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#1470709 - 13/09/2018 19:44 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest tech note recons eyewall on SE side collapsed, says due to temporary shear in a low shear environment?
Max expected wind gusts 105kts instead of 140 or so?
Dont know about anyone else but something isnt right here. You could blame african dust it has ingested in middle atlantic.
Something fishy here.
Maybe because of its size, land interaction is now a factor?
Atlantic getting very crowded atm, Joyce way east of Flo atm.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/09/2018 19:50)

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#1470717 - 13/09/2018 21:02 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I'm surprised how much Florence has weakened.

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#1470719 - 13/09/2018 22:03 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, something not right.

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#1470724 - 14/09/2018 08:08 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 98
Loc: Ayr
Just looked at water vapour, radar on Florence & can see a big curve of intensity on the side away from the coast, what is that & it’s it related to the eye wall issues??

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#1470730 - 14/09/2018 13:28 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Mangy getting mentioned at last, gona smash North Phillipines with 280k winds & has a massive 125km wide eye. Nasty.
Makes Flo look miniature.

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#1470731 - 14/09/2018 15:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Arnost Offline
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Registered: 10/02/2007
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#1470732 - 14/09/2018 15:42 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sure has weakened considerably.

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#1470741 - 14/09/2018 20:29 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Mangkhut (Omgpong) is certainly an impressive specimen, hardcore cat 5 super typhoon, up there with Meranti, Megi, Nepartak etc, the production line has just rolled another truck tyre off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/html5-rbtop-short.html

Few chasers that I know are there at the tip ready for the intercept and they have nailed it as the eye is going bang on for that region, looks like the start of an ERC is happening now prior to landfall which probably shaves 25-30knots off it but still a beast on impact. Josh is gunna be up against it getting all the way up there from Manilla after leaving it a bit late!

Tutt cell to east now no longer giving the outflow and impedement on the NW flank but core still blowing up some very cold tops, seas 29-30C low shear, will still be a big impact...the next step will be interesing because the fairly swift NW correction earlier has now brought Hong Kong back into the game for a fair impact....the less land it hits at Luzon the worse it gets for Hong Kong.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (14/09/2018 20:30)

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#1470745 - 14/09/2018 23:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This is just scary (Mangkhut):



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#1470798 - 15/09/2018 16:33 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 165
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Ouch. What is the longer term outlook for the Hong Kong region? I am supposed to be flying there in 2 weeks. This one will be gone, but is there any other potential activity on the cards?
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#1471114 - 23/09/2018 16:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here's the next one - Trami:



Track gets a little tricky later in the week and although it's not shown in JTWC's track map yet, both the current runs of GFS & EC show a recurve to the NE ahead of an approaching trough. It's just a matter of when that recurve happens.

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#1471119 - 23/09/2018 18:14 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
160 knots, yikes. The last 2 typhoons really knocked around SST’s in that area, this will really push them down, wonder what impacts this will have upon ENSO. Interesting days ahead.

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#1471120 - 23/09/2018 18:25 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7363
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Kino, bucket loads of heat has/is being mopped up from the Pacific N of the equator. "Revert to the mean" comes to mind.

The long term impact must come out to play as the ocean reacts to redistribute the heat balance (not that I have any idea how that will/does come out to play). Yasi stole 2C from the Coral Sea a few years back as O recall. Maybe a look back at the reaction of the W Pacific 6 months following that event?

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#1471180 - 24/09/2018 14:28 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time-lapse of Trami of the last 24 hours. (Updates every 30 minutes)

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-SEAsia.aspx
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#1471192 - 24/09/2018 17:32 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow, seriously.

Both EC and GFS have ANOTHER typhoon following this one up.

As for Trami, there seems to be better agreement today for a recurve well east of Taiwan and into Japan...again...though by that stage it looks like having begun its extratropical transition as it interacts and becomes embedded in a mid-lat trough.

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#1471241 - 25/09/2018 10:23 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Trami's eye looks even more mesmerising this morning!

Below is the track spread of Trami from some of the ensembles colour-coded by intensity as well as the Himawari-8 combined visible/IR imagery at sunrise via CIRA/RAMMB:







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#1471261 - 25/09/2018 17:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS has another strong typhoon hitting Japan not even a week after Trami.

EC has it lurking out to sea for the entire run.

What a season the WPAC is having.

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#1471448 - 28/09/2018 02:56 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I was actually going to mention a few days ago a particular EC run which had Trami basically stalling for a good 24 hours from Wed-Thu which would lead to a weakening of the storm due to cold water upwelling...well, she's done just that. Once Trami gets a move along though she is predicted to rentensify again as she re-enters much warmer waters and as JTWC say, her outflow taps into the mid-latitude westerlies.

JTWC still has 90 knot sustained (gusting to 110 knots) near the Kyoto/Osaka region on Sunday night. That's nasty.

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#1471450 - 28/09/2018 06:45 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Those are really nice sat photos right over the top of it.
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#1471531 - 28/09/2018 23:38 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Trami's eye is now massive:


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#1472259 - 07/10/2018 09:43 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Mangkhut (Omgpong) is certainly an impressive specimen, hardcore cat 5 super typhoon, up there with Meranti, Megi, Nepartak etc, the production line has just rolled another truck tyre off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/html5-rbtop-short.html

Few chasers that I know are there at the tip ready for the intercept and they have nailed it as the eye is going bang on for that region, looks like the start of an ERC is happening now prior to landfall which probably shaves 25-30knots off it but still a beast on impact. Josh is gunna be up against it getting all the way up there from Manilla after leaving it a bit late!

Tutt cell to east now no longer giving the outflow and impedement on the NW flank but core still blowing up some very cold tops, seas 29-30C low shear, will still be a big impact...the next step will be interesing because the fairly swift NW correction earlier has now brought Hong Kong back into the game for a fair impact....the less land it hits at Luzon the worse it gets for Hong Kong.

TS cool


As you know Mangkhut was another one of our Westpac chase subjects but it's interesting you mention Nepartak and Meranti. Having also chased both of those storms in previous years we certainly had the discussion as to which was the stronger storm.

As far as Mangkhut goes, I was with James Reynolds once again for this one and it was perhaps the first time a storm has become far too dangerous to shoot. At the peak of the winds we were all basically holed up in an internal room of our hotel as glass and other debris was filling the corridors of the hotel. It was certainly not an overly pleasant experience for a period there. That being said, a lot of the damage to our hotel can also be attributed to shonky Philippines building standards. There was however an overall feeling that this was a violent typhoon and up there with the strongest either of us had experienced.

Nepartak on the other hand although analysed as a weaker system at landfall was as far as I'm concerned the stronger of the two storms. To see what this storm was able to do to the otherwise bullet proof structures of Taiwan was incredible. Also the way it was able to toss cars around like toys made it appear more like a tornado damage path than TC damage.

Meranti was perhaps the one that got away however. This storm passed to the south of our location on the far southern tip of Taiwan and was still able to register winds in excess of 120 knots near Kenting over 40km from the inner eyewall. Was sub-900mb as it passed over Batanes in the Luzon Straight and who can forget that incredible satellite image with the entire island of Itbayat encircled by the eye.

Anyway, always interesting to look back at these storms subjectively. Mangkhut at this point is leading the way officially as strongest storm of 2018 but there may also be a case for Kong-Rey as it did appear to be hopelessly underestimated operationally by most agencies.

Here's a bit of video leading up to, and immediately after the passage of Typhoon Mangkhut. As mentioned earlier, it became far too dangerous to shoot most of this storm.

Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Also some clips from Meranti a couple of years earlier..

Super Typhoon Meranti

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