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#1467532 - 18/07/2018 10:20 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14970
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The current LWT node around WA longitudes and the general progs over the coming week or so is definitely one of the most substantial I can remember in my time watching the weather patterns, certainly generating a very impressive swell across the Southern and Indian Oceans...great rains for the southern coastal areas that are getting clipped by it but being so zonal minimising the inland impact for now.

TS cool

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#1467540 - 18/07/2018 14:29 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Nostalgia is an effective filter sorry - I recall the 80's were terribly dry and hot until the massive La Nina at the end. That's one of the problems with climate science - it's always re-writing or downplaying history. But Dorothea McKeller nailed our climate in the 1900's.


The summers of 83/84 and 84/85 were quite brutal..........for ice cream sales. Wollongong University recorded 8 days above 30C all summer in 83/84, and only 4 above 30C in 84/85.

I used to cut out weather maps from the Illawarra Mockery and remember that period well. Plus missed the hot days - I do not mind a 44C day, just the night I hate.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1467541 - 18/07/2018 15:08 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: ozthunder]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2817
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Originally Posted By: Kino
Nostalgia is an effective filter sorry - I recall the 80's were terribly dry and hot until the massive La Nina at the end. That's one of the problems with climate science - it's always re-writing or downplaying history. But Dorothea McKeller nailed our climate in the 1900's.


The summers of 83/84 and 84/85 were quite brutal..........for ice cream sales. Wollongong University recorded 8 days above 30C all summer in 83/84, and only 4 above 30C in 84/85.

I used to cut out weather maps from the Illawarra Mockery and remember that period well. Plus missed the hot days - I do not mind a 44C day, just the night I hate.


How many did Albion Park record? Wollongong Uni isn't that good a measuring stick - close enough to the coast to get the moist cooler NE'ers, covered in lush gardens & shade and at the foot of a mountain.

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#1467550 - 18/07/2018 20:46 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7634
Loc: Adelaide Hills

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#1467607 - 19/07/2018 20:23 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Originally Posted By: Kino
Nostalgia is an effective filter sorry - I recall the 80's were terribly dry and hot until the massive La Nina at the end. That's one of the problems with climate science - it's always re-writing or downplaying history. But Dorothea McKeller nailed our climate in the 1900's.


The summers of 83/84 and 84/85 were quite brutal..........for ice cream sales. Wollongong University recorded 8 days above 30C all summer in 83/84, and only 4 above 30C in 84/85.

I used to cut out weather maps from the Illawarra Mockery and remember that period well. Plus missed the hot days - I do not mind a 44C day, just the night I hate.


How many did Albion Park record? Wollongong Uni isn't that good a measuring stick - close enough to the coast to get the moist cooler NE'ers, covered in lush gardens & shade and at the foot of a mountain.


I take your point. I think the Illawarra would not have an ideal measurement spot. May be Warrawong? or even my home of Mount Warrigal/ Barrack Heights. Albion Park is rain shadowed badly for southerly rain / drizzle, and also the frostiest place in the Illawarra. Bellambi and Kiama are too far to close to the ocean.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1467627 - 20/07/2018 11:33 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2817
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah was thinking Lake Heights area (though elevated) and Oak Flats - seems to be on that boundary line.

Was re-visiting that rainfall map I provided ages ago, and it seems the Lake Heights/Berkeley area does pretty well rainfall wise (1300-1500mm shading) right on the border of the rain shadow effect and some sort of orographic enhancements perhaps?


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#1467628 - 20/07/2018 11:57 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I grew up around the Shellharbour areas and can recall some brutally hot days in the low 40s in either late November or early December.

One day I was playing golf for school activities and it was so hot I would thoroughly wet my tshirt on the green and it would be dry by the time I got to the next tee.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1467629 - 20/07/2018 12:10 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2817
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I distinctly recall 1988 as it was then that piqued my interest as a kid in weather. Huge rains in April that year - Lake Illawarra flooded - Albion Park, Oak Flats, Dapto (if I recall)

I recall coming home from the new Shellharbour Square, as it used to be called, and the rain was hammering down. I think it was an ECL but can't quite recall.


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#1467651 - 20/07/2018 16:52 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Rigger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2008
Posts: 132
Loc: Leanyer,NT (suburb of Darwin)
April !986 was a hot month as I recall. I was visiting my parents at Menangle and we had a 38c day there early in the month then I was fishing on Lake Illawarra on Anzac Day and it was near on 30c from memory....

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#1467776 - 23/07/2018 15:58 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
I distinctly recall 1988 as it was then that piqued my interest as a kid in weather. Huge rains in April that year - Lake Illawarra flooded - Albion Park, Oak Flats, Dapto (if I recall)

I recall coming home from the new Shellharbour Square, as it used to be called, and the rain was hammering down. I think it was an ECL but can't quite recall.



That may have been the year that the surf club had the surf boats rowing down Shellharbour Road at Windang, rescueing oldies from the caravan parks.

It will not ever happen again as the Lake Entrance now has breakwalls which have really worked. We even have mangroves starting to thrive west of the bridge.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1467827 - 25/07/2018 09:04 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
Listening to ABC radio this morning and caught an interview with one Professor Rogers from the climate science department at the University of Queensland commenting on the current weather situation in the NH w.r.t. fires in Greece and heatwaves effecting Japan (recorded it’s hottest temp on record) , much of Europe and Canada. He said that a large part of it was that the subtropical ridge is extending much further northward that usual this year, and that larger than normal high pressure systems were a feature of the NH summer.

This really took me aback. I would’ve thought that the subtropical ridge extending further in one hemisphere would lead to a withdrawal in another?

I’m starting to think that combined with a better than not chance of an El Niño developing, we really might be in for it this spring/summer.

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#1468413 - 06/08/2018 18:46 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
Get a load of Wednesday 10am’s chart:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

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#1468418 - 06/08/2018 19:16 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 438
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
I don't think the sub tropical ridge being high up over the Australian continent during winter is anything unusual. I remember seeing examples of this in books on climatology. This example from the BOM is the same: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=strexample
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#1468432 - 07/08/2018 06:20 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
Yeah for sure. It’s just the size and stability of that belt this year. I mean the pressure gradient in Wednesday’s map pretty much stays the same over more than half the continent, very calm stable conditions.

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#1468451 - 07/08/2018 12:22 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Nerd65]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
Further, I’m getting a little tired of the ‘seen it all before’ mentality. Large parts of Eastern Australia are now the driest they’ve been for some time, daytime maximums were some of the warmest on record for July across large parts of NSW and QLD, while the unusually clear calm conditions allowed for some very significant minimums to be recorded last month from NSW all the way to Alice Springs. I’m sure similar patterns have gripped the country previously but if we look at the conditions experienced over the last couple of months, clearly a more dominant subtropical ridge than normal has been at play.


Edited by Eigerwand (07/08/2018 12:23)

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#1468957 - 16/08/2018 20:47 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7634
Loc: Adelaide Hills
To my understanding, a number of weather-related dynamics and features have contributed to the current drought conditions across much of Eastern Australia, and further inland.


Edited by Seira (16/08/2018 20:56)

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#1468961 - 16/08/2018 21:14 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Seina]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
Yes of course. It wasn’t like this over summer and lots of Eastern Aus has been in drought since then. But a dominant and stable STR has been more pronounced since about May this year compared with years past and has contributed to the worsening dry and also helps to explain other weather we have observed this winter over large parts of the country.

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#1468964 - 17/08/2018 06:58 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 338
“A stronger than average high pressure system over central and eastern Australia”. That was taken from the latest weatherpulse clip w.r.t. rainfall this winter.
My point in starting this thread was to bring to light something I saw as being unusual, which it did in fact turn out to be and hopefully get some input as to what might be going on to make this so. Sadly most of the replies have been “seen it all before” as the pattern in question fits in well with a certain theory so despised by the experts on here that to bother actually understand what was going on might raise a couple of uncomfortable questions.

That said I am still hopeful someone may jump in and offer some explanation behind the ‘stronger than avg STR of 2018’.

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#1468966 - 17/08/2018 07:35 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
I probably won't add much to help you here but for me this winter is more about the strong frontal systems continually rolling across the southern ocean. This is highlighted by very wet conditions around the SW exposed parts of the country e.g. SE South Australia and SW Wester OZ. I suspect the SAM has a lot to do with this. In the past when we see blocking high pressure in the Souther Ocean and the Tasman Sea we get more cut off cold pools that drift NE out of the bight and trigger rain events over Eastern Australia. This year I have seen none of this activity to remember. Funny enough the set up over the next week 10 days looks like it may finally produce this type of situation, but time will tell if it really happens.
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
“A stronger than average high pressure system over central and eastern Australia”. That was taken from the latest weatherpulse clip w.r.t. rainfall this winter.
My point in starting this thread was to bring to light something I saw as being unusual, which it did in fact turn out to be and hopefully get some input as to what might be going on to make this so. Sadly most of the replies have been “seen it all before” as the pattern in question fits in well with a certain theory so despised by the experts on here that to bother actually understand what was going on might raise a couple of uncomfortable questions.

That said I am still hopeful someone may jump in and offer some explanation behind the ‘stronger than avg STR of 2018’.

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#1468967 - 17/08/2018 08:10 Re: Giant High Pressure Systems [Re: Eigerwand]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1829
Loc: Kingaroy
If this pattern persists into spring and summer, it's going to get very hot because the sinking air in the high pressure system will trigger compressional heating and add to that clear skies, it's going to make for brutal heatwaves.


Edited by Chris Stumer (17/08/2018 08:11)

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