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#1466770 - 01/07/2018 20:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 732
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Lost : reward offered for missing Tasmanian Winter last seen about 5 years ago. An impostor calling itself Winter has been hanging around , but it is very clear that it is not the real thing.
The so called Winter is more like it's neighbor Spring , anyone coming across the lost Tasmanian Winter could please return it to it's rightful homeland before we all die of heatstroke and sunburn and dehydration. Cheers H2O

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#1466781 - 01/07/2018 22:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Hasn't been so bad H20.
A pretty bang on the long time average for Hobart in June.

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#1466785 - 01/07/2018 23:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 411
Loc: Hobart
Coldest June for 6 years in Hobart, 3 years for Tasmania. Plenty of time left for some proper snow

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#1466786 - 02/07/2018 00:01 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Yes lets hope so.
Don't think i saw the mountain with a snowcap this winter so far.

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#1466807 - 02/07/2018 14:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2158
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Looks like some weather this Friday- Sunday fingers crossed it hits us all hard.

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#1466828 - 02/07/2018 22:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 191
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Yeah going by the models its looking good SF!

Sadly GFS last run has very little rainwise for the weekend, maybe a few millimeters if we're lucky, but mostly wind. EC's models look good but they always seem to exaggerate the rain/wind/snow..

All that being said we had 50.8mm for the month of June at home, 35mm of that falling in one night.

Not a bad day today either! Reached a nice top 15.6C after a low of -0.7 C here at home.

Hey Winterlover, seems that way lately with no snow on the mountain, think i've seen it covered lightly and briefly once this year in the early morning.. or i may be dreaming haha grin

Anyway can't wait for the end of July and into August when we start to see more of these frontal systems push through and less dominate high pressures.

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#1466829 - 02/07/2018 22:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
I guess it wasn't the warmth so much, but it was pretty benign through most of May and June + mostly snowless as well.

As SF points out, later this week may spice things up - looks like 30-60mm for us northerners between Wed and Sat, before it swings more to the SW for a day or two. Could be some highland snow in it ahead of it going SW. Models usually understate the rainfall in the SE when its blowing from the north, so there should be more than a few mm down that way too (10-20mm??).

The outlook suggests the highs are likely to stick about. So the outlook for snow isn't promising, but it only takes a few good falls I guess to keep everyone interested.

-1.8 to 12.3 here today, probably the last frost for a week or so. Consistent rainfall rather than a few wet months means we are still 50mm+ up on last year to the end of June.

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#1466831 - 02/07/2018 22:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 82
Loc: Tasmania
Settle down lol. 3rd August 2015 was a huge low level event, with another 3 or 4 sea level events attached to that winter.
Well within the 5 year period.
https://youtu.be/FU8kgTiDXQU
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1466837 - 03/07/2018 09:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2158
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Nice video WTV

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#1466845 - 03/07/2018 12:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1721
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Loved that video.but I love tas
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1466848 - 03/07/2018 12:58 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
At this point in 2015 there had already been 5 substantial cold changes and we were just into the 6th. Mount Wellington hourly temps on the graph below show the number of fronts that pushed Mount Wellington below -4. There were at least 14 events depending on how you count them in 2015. We might still get a few big ones, but doubt we'll get the hit rate we had in 2015.


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#1466862 - 03/07/2018 20:39 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 732
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
I'm not getting excited at all about this weekends event which I think will be a short lived moment . An that's if it eventuates at all ? A massive blocking High out in the Tasman will always be the decider how much cooling down we get . Anyways after that short lived event another massive High rolls over and will probably sit there for another 10 days , so Winter has finally become a non-event in this part of the world. By August at this rate we will be seeing plenty of bush fires and 20 degree plus days.

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#1466892 - 04/07/2018 19:39 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
Only the 16th time Hobart has had consec July days >16. The record is 5 set in 1975. Last happened in 2014, had a 3 day run in 2013 and a 4 day run in 2011. Friendly Beaches reached a balmy 18.9. Tomorrow is also forecast to reach 16, so maybe another 3 day streak on the cards.

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#1466896 - 04/07/2018 21:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Yes quite mild today.
Very much looking forward to the weekend and normal July temperatures smile

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#1466897 - 04/07/2018 22:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 191
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Yeah wasn't a bad day, even needed to turn the ac on in the car for a bit haha

Top of 17.3 C here at Brighton, overnight low of just 8.7 C which was a nice change, not missing those frosts. grin

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#1466898 - 04/07/2018 22:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 82
Loc: Tasmania
Id be interested to see the preceding 3 years in graph form if you have them Snowies? I seem to remember a few years in a row of low level events.
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1466919 - 05/07/2018 11:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
WTV - The only year I can't do is last year. But here are all the other years since 2012.

2012 was ok for events less than -4 but no majorly cold changes. August and early Sep in 2013 looked ok with a number of cold fronts, with two big cold outbreaks - especially the one toward the end of August. 2014 was warm with a lot of +4 temps. 2016 had two decent changes in July but was otherwise wetter rather than cold/snowy.

The mean Mount Wellington temps using the data on the graphs was:
2012 1.3
2013 1.9
2014 2.5
2015 0.9
2016 1.9

2004 for example the mean was 0.7.In 1994 the mean was -0.2.






Edited by Snowies (05/07/2018 11:46)

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#1466965 - 06/07/2018 00:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2158
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Windy and wet at Great Lake.
Waiting for the snow!
Bring it on!
4.9 degrees

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#1466982 - 06/07/2018 09:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
32mm mostly after 5pm yesterday and about 2am this morning when it ended with a fairly major squall. Had about 38mm so far this week, a bit more to come later today and tonight. Might go close to 50mm.

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#1467010 - 06/07/2018 21:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2158
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
15mm till 9am and 3mm since 9 at Tods Corner Great Lake.
Had snow showers mostly after lunch when it settled a few times then mostly melted.
Amazing difference from the bottom of my drive way to the top. Dusting at the bottom 1060m and 1cm at shack site @ 1115m.
Forecast looks great for tomorrow and Sunday.
could see 20-30cm of snow.
Warmed up a little atm, was 0.5 degrees and frosty now 1.5 degrees and a NW wind, with the next front getting closer.
Pine tree rivulet had 74mm this morning at the Northern end of the lake and we had 15mm in the Southern end Liawenee had 27mm in the middle.

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