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#1448062 - 09/01/2018 09:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past five calendar years at South West Rocks:
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits

Months ranked from most stormy to least stormy:
December
November
October
January
February
April
March
September
June
August
May
July

Splitting hairs between December and November, they're basically equal stormiest. November is the little more consistent of the two from year-to-year though. July is the least stormiest month by a country mile, no other month even comes remotely close to it.


Love the stats Eric thanks for the updates.

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#1448078 - 09/01/2018 11:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Next weekend is still looking a bit interesting - most models are still trying to bring a coastal change up the coast with decent instability ahead of it.
The finer details of what could complicate it (e.g. moisture, capping, timing, cloud cover, etc) should hopefully become more apparent in the coming days.

Some southern & western parts of our region could get some activity in the days before then as well.




Atleast there are no gaps beyond the 12th. GFS has been consistent with some precip in the way of thunderstorms for region by the weekend as you mentioned. Theres also a hint of a signal at the end of the run with the models but too far to tell if its a big event yet.

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#1448097 - 09/01/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1530
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Just need a trigger for the Coral Sea. But with the 30-40knot NE flow normally through the South China Sea which is needed to push the MT over NE OZ and the Coral Sea - still largely heading back into the Asian Continent due to a series of circulations above the Equator, we here in the East will be waiting a while yet.

The NW of OZ is seeing what I call a " back door " monsoon flow, via India wrapping around these same NH lows.



You have the wonder where is all the evaporation going from the coral sea? surely it's not drying out up above?

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#1448103 - 09/01/2018 14:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 773
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I would have.to fathom a guess Gleno and point the bone at our old friend the high pressure ridge or the squidge as it is affectionately known.Occasional shower off the coast in the moist south easterly most of the time.

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#1448116 - 09/01/2018 16:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4677
Loc: Wynnum
Spot on Tweedstorm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep29.0(32)YTD716.4(833.8),

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#1448214 - 09/01/2018 22:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Cheers SteveO.

A bit over an hour ago, I was down by the riverside for a little while and could see the near-constant lightning being produced by storms about 100-110kms SW of here.

STW is current for Heavy Rain, Large Hail and Damaging Winds.

Although we're within the warning area now, the storms will need to keep building northward if we're to get anything here tonight.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1448231 - 10/01/2018 03:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A storm hit here just after 1am. It went through fairly quickly, with a burst of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds (approx peak 70km/h). The storm line was producing very frequent lightning as it approached and moved through.
It eased and cleared off to light rain, until a weak storm moved in a bit later bringing steady to briefly borderline moderate rain, and fairly infrequent though noisy lightning/thunder.

The initial storm on approach about 10 minutes or so before it arrived -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1448241 - 10/01/2018 08:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
My station recorded 9.5mm from those storms - wind gust of 31.3km/h though my station is a fairly protected from the wind by a number of trees which block the worst of it so the reading will be low unfortunately.

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#1448254 - 10/01/2018 09:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Yeah get a better run-up for wind here with no trees/bushland near the house (only the odd palm tree in other neighbour's yards, which come in handy when guesstimating wind speed).
Coffs got the best of the wind with 82km/h gusts. Reasonable falls of over 25mm to the west of Port and southwest of Kempsey, including 55mm at Elands and 50mm at Mt Seaview.
A narrow storm band quickly passed through around 8:10am. Only brief steady rain, however it still managed to produce occasional lightning/thunder. 13.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1448307 - 10/01/2018 19:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nobody watching the radar? Just took a peek. Thought there was something nice about to the South with all that darkish high cloud & another quality sunset!
Good looking harbinger for the next few days.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (10/01/2018 19:54)

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#1448309 - 10/01/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 285
Loc: Golden Beach
Harbinger??? - anything that foreshadows a future event; omen; sign. LSNED

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#1448314 - 10/01/2018 21:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
thecatandme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Brisbane Valley, QLD
There was a glorious sunset out at Plainlands tonight, all pinks and purples. There is a rumbling in the distance but doesn't seem to be amounting too much.

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#1448328 - 11/01/2018 00:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Very strong storm moved through Inglewood this evening. The AWS there recorded 61mm in an hour, and 87km/h wind gusts.

Nice lightning pic from last night taken at Port Macquarie
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdvvpN_n8Wc/

After the mid-morning storm band moved through parts of the northern MNC, the weak southerly soon came through and began to stabilise things, so storms remained on and west of the tablelands this afternoon/evening.

Been a few brief showers here tonight falling from low-level cloud.
GFS indicating there may storms about the coastal areas in the local region tomorrow, however EC and ACCESS aren't so keen on the idea.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1448415 - 11/01/2018 22:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1197
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Doesn't look like the current hot, dry pattern is gonna break for a while. This weekends storms have faded into oblivion, models not showing anything of interest either apart from something at the end of extended GFS fantasy land.

While its quiet in here I'll share a few pics I snapped today during my travels of the storm damage from the boxing day supercell west of Kingaroy. Was probably another 3km west of the photos I posted in the event thread at the time. Even 2 and a bit weeks later the trees are still completely defoliated and scarred from the hail, looked like a cat 3 cyclone had gone through the place. A few houses with windows boarded up in the area as well. Certainly a storm I'll never forget thats for sure.

_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 364mm ytd

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#1448418 - 11/01/2018 23:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Heavy falls in the Armidale area up on the Northern Tablelands today from thunderstorms. Armidale Airport has recorded 68.8mm since 9am. Making it the wettest January day on record at the Airport site (24yrs of records), and combining the records of the three Armidale sites that have existed, the wettest January day since 1964 (75.9mm).

On the coast, a couple of storms did manage to form around the Nambucca and Bellinger Valleys this evening. A little distant thunder was heard here from one near Macksville.


P.S. Nice work Gus.


Edited by Seabreeze (11/01/2018 23:08)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1448419 - 11/01/2018 23:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Buderim
Something better get going soon if this seasonal outlook is to stand up

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0
_________________________
Just rain FFS

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#1448421 - 11/01/2018 23:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Golden State]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 331
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Golden State
Something better get going soon if this seasonal outlook is to stand up

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0


I wouldn't call it now by any means.

Just going back to last year, we had pretty average rain in January, and then below average in February and the first half of March, and then the heavens opened in a spectacular way with two rain events in the second half of March (one pre-Debbie and Debbie herself). On the flip side, it was distinctly dry post-2011 floods in SEQ. Nobody was really worried though as everybody was thoroughly sick of the rain by this time 7 years ago.

There's still a solid three months for things to get going, not to mention the forecast for Australia Day is still yet to come out. Something about that public holiday which attracts pouring rain. grin
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

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#1448430 - 12/01/2018 09:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
8 day WATL looks great for North Oz, not so much for us. Wish it would hurry up & move south.

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#1448435 - 12/01/2018 09:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Yeah, we're really hurting at home now. 2mm so far for 2018, and only 50mm in Dec. I haven't mowed for 3 weeks!!! Unheard of haha. Seeing all the pictures floating around FB of the 2011 January floods has given me a bit of perspective though... those were some tough times.

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#1448437 - 12/01/2018 09:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1530
Loc: Australia
So will there be storms over the weekend or not? Weather pages, media and the BOM seem to think so? Nothing said here?

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