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#1459953 - 31/03/2018 17:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Memories of Ice Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/07/2008
Posts: 221
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!


I thought the forecasts were underdone, especially yesterday. I mean, when I went for my 90 minute run yesterday morning it drizzled for about half of it and we had to dry our laundered clothes inside under a ceiling fan cause the showers were on and off.
So if you thought they were overdone and I thought they were underdone, the forecasts were perfect

Another thing, and the thing that annoys the hell out me, is people assuming because they didn't get any rain no one else got any rain either OR vice versa. It don't work like that. It reminds me of the time someone complained about the forecast on The Gap storm day because THEY didn't get a storm.


Edited by Memories of Ice (31/03/2018 17:34)

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#1459956 - 31/03/2018 18:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1530
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!



Below is what I said the other day, I think the weekend has gone as forecasted 3-4 days ago

"With the upper high centering around western Qld, i can't see too much rain happening in our neck of the wood's. No sign of a coastal trough on the forecast maps , and the Bom have Brisbane going for 1-3mm each day over easter."

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#1459991 - 31/03/2018 22:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 285
Loc: Golden Beach
Yep! Lets leave it at that, I know it goes both ways. Friends said it poured down in Maroochydore.


Edited by Snapper22lb (31/03/2018 22:35)

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#1459995 - 31/03/2018 22:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Seems until this low does its thing up north still keeps the hope alive that there might be some precip for some. With the current forecasts things could still be open for change does'nt look dormant in the sense that there is activity somewhere even though
It may not be locally. I'm amazed just how far Ex Iris has travelled.


Edited by Steve O (31/03/2018 22:49)

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#1459996 - 31/03/2018 22:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2116
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Seems until this low does its thing up north still keeps the hope alive that there might be some precip for some. With the current forecasts things could still be open for change does'nt look dormant in the sense that there is activity somewhere even though
It may not be locally. I'm amazed just how far Ex Iris has travelled.


Believe it or not ext GFS has Iris doing another full loop of CS, intensifying dramatically and then grazing mid northern coast of NSW as a pretty strong ECL. End of run it's still alive heading south into the Tasman.

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#1459999 - 31/03/2018 22:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
You never know, it might finally be the 1 out of 10 setups that ext-GFS actually manages to get right laugh

I think I remember it was bringing a 2nd associated low to pivot around over us and bring us heavy rain and winds here by around this time.

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#1460000 - 31/03/2018 23:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Anything interesting on the scripts Ken?

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#1460002 - 31/03/2018 23:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Keeping everybody guessing, Iris is.
Wouldnt be at all surprised if she graces us a visit.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (31/03/2018 23:13)

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#1460004 - 31/03/2018 23:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7114
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
If that next shortwave trough (black arrow) darts NW into NT then we have next to 0 chance of receiving anything even up here, imo. Also note the deep ridge building under it (orange arrow) which would clear everything north. Ridging of that strength is pretty typical of April I would think, if it was Jan-Feb I'd be more confident about such an event:

[/img]

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#1460126 - 01/04/2018 17:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1021
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looks like temps will continue to average 3-4 degrees C above normal out here. No rain in site. Very comfortable conditions for sure, especially in the evening.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1460191 - 01/04/2018 23:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7114
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
still too much ridging down here imo. GFS / UK have it being ripped apart by strong shear just off the Central Coast. If this was earlier in the season when the ridging wasn't so strong then things might have been a little different.

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#1460220 - 02/04/2018 08:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4677
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 2.6mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep29.0(32)YTD716.4(833.8),

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#1460230 - 02/04/2018 08:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1041
Loc: West Toowoomba
19.5mm for March, 120mm ytd for me.
Thats half of what Toowoomba airport has received and probably 30% of what the eastern side of Toowoomba has received. Amazing how quickly the rainfall drops off as you move away from the range

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#1460266 - 02/04/2018 12:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Adam Ant]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 64
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
You are not far wrong there Adam. Figures for Mt Lofty have been 70.5 mm for March, and 269.3 mm for the year to date. So, your rain for March was 28% of my total, and the ytd amount is about 45% of our figure. However, they are relatively isolated readings. Take this instance, our rainfall for one day, Feb 26th this year of 79mm, was more than the total rainfall during the 156 day period 27 April-30th September last year, which only totaled 72.4 mm. It is interesting to develop 'statistics' for specific periods, but they are not worth much in a scientific context.

Having said that, I have no doubt at all that you are quite a lot drier on your side of town, than we are on the eastern edge.
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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#1460317 - 02/04/2018 15:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Adam Ant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1530
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
19.5mm for March, 120mm ytd for me.
Thats half of what Toowoomba airport has received and probably 30% of what the eastern side of Toowoomba has received. Amazing how quickly the rainfall drops off as you move away from the range



I'm actually surprised how much the ranges affect our weather, given the fact there not that high when you compare it with other parts of the world with mountains with far greater mountain height.

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#1460391 - 02/04/2018 18:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 507
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Superb Autumn weather last few days here just west of Brisbane.

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#1460399 - 02/04/2018 19:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
The contrast between the eastern parts of Toowoomba such as Picnic Point and the western parts such as near the airport is often quite stark. I often go up there (only a 90min drive from my place) on cool showery days and encounter low cloud shrouding the higher parts of the escarpment in the eastern parts of town for hours and cool drizzly conditions but as soon as I get to the lower western outskirts and beyond, even the landscape looks drier.

Anyway some images.
1st image - warmer than normal over our area as well as large parts of the continent last month.

2nd image - Rainfall coverage this Easter from radar-derived raingauge-calibrated data (I was one of the lucky or unlucky ones who got drenched on the Gold Coast on Friday)





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#1460550 - 03/04/2018 02:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
Hope somewhere down the track we get a good autumn type rain event. Some areas of the Southern land right up to the Gr.Div range really needs it.

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#1460556 - 03/04/2018 05:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
Southern Land should read southern inland of QLD(and probably northern inland of NSW) too.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (03/04/2018 05:50)

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#1460576 - 03/04/2018 08:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: T.rex]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1041
Loc: West Toowoomba
Originally Posted By: T.rex
You are not far wrong there Adam. Figures for Mt Lofty have been 70.5 mm for March, and 269.3 mm for the year to date. So, your rain for March was 28% of my total, and the ytd amount is about 45% of our figure. However, they are relatively isolated readings. Take this instance, our rainfall for one day, Feb 26th this year of 79mm, was more than the total rainfall during the 156 day period 27 April-30th September last year, which only totaled 72.4 mm. It is interesting to develop 'statistics' for specific periods, but they are not worth much in a scientific context.

Having said that, I have no doubt at all that you are quite a lot drier on your side of town, than we are on the eastern edge.


There was a rainfall station at Westbrook for a long time, it averaged 663mm for the year, the old Toowoomba site averaged 952. Just shows that what I am experiencing now is probably the norm unfortunately! I used to live on the east side of town,I'm missing the foggy mornings and wetter climate!

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