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#1467226 - 12/07/2018 09:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Mcbobbings Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 16
Fog but no frost this morning in West Ryde, low of 4.8c at Homebush. I notice OH has back to back lows of 5c on Sunday and Monday, that's about as cold as it's been there for the past 5 years. I wouldn't be surprised if we get the first sub 5c low in almost 3 years. Will be heavy frost out west from this high.

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#1467228 - 12/07/2018 10:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4235
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney's forecast has just been updated. It still includes the possibility of showers and 'local thunder'.

It's now sunny with a bit of alto-cumulus about and heavier looking cloud on the Eastern horizon. The radar is still showing storm cells way out to sea off the Illawarra.

It's been a sunny July so far. Of the 11 July days, one was cloudy, one partly cloudy but mostly sunny and the other 9 bright and sunny (75%+ sunshine). OH is tracking close to recent averages (1981-2010) for minima and about 2 above for maxima. By the end of the forecast period that will be nearly 1 below to about 1.5 above respectively.

The back to back 5s forecast for OH are unusual. 5 seems to be the floor under OH minima these days. Last sub-5 there was 4.3 on 30/6/2010.

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#1467233 - 12/07/2018 12:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Mcbobbings Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 16
Originally Posted By: Steve777


The back to back 5s forecast for OH are unusual. 5 seems to be the floor under OH minima these days. Last sub-5 there was 4.3 on 30/6/2010.


Yes you're right. I thought August 2015 had a sub 5, but it turned out to be exactly 5c.

Since 2008 the yearly minimum temps for OH are as follows

2008- 5.3c, 19th Aug
2009, 5.9c, 9th Aug
2010, 4.3c, 30th Jun
2011, 5.5c, 8th Jul
2012, 5.5c, 1st Sep (just .6c off the September record, and many Western Sydney sites have this as their coldest September morning on record)
2013, 7c, 9th Aug (I have not done the research, but that would have to be up there with the warmest ever mins for OH in a year)
2014, 5.5c, 3rd Aug
2015, 5c, 5th Aug
2016, 5.4c, 30th Jun
2017, 5.4c, 2nd Jul
2018, 6.3c, 29th Jun

I remember looking at this last year, since the 60s there seems to have been a marked decrease in sub 5 minima. I wonder if there was a site change or a few extra buildings constructed near the station or some other affect. Most years OH has 2 or 3 readings with 5.x, surprisingly quite commonly in August. Fingers crossed this year we get a sub 5. smile

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#1467234 - 12/07/2018 13:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 367
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looking pretty terrible August and September, and considering the bureau has gotten winter right so far not looking good for most people. Just praying the outcomes do change though, because one big event can set us even-stevens. Hopefully it is a weak el nino or a warm-neutral because it leaves us with hope for Summer.


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#1467236 - 12/07/2018 14:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Snowmaker Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 12
Loc: Bowral
Currently getting a very heavy shower of soft hail here in Bowral

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#1467239 - 12/07/2018 14:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Snowmaker]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3132
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Currently getting a very heavy shower of soft hail here in Bowral


Thanks for that update.

The cell offshore Jervis bay looks good from my work window. Has a defacto or claytons overshoot. I say defacto as the glaciation level is very low, so any vigourous updraft can push through that. Its not your classic supercell top of troposhere overshoot.
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#1467240 - 12/07/2018 15:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 367
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...

Nice set up for this arvo looking west.


Edited by ashestoashes (12/07/2018 15:01)

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#1467242 - 12/07/2018 16:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4235
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There were some interesting cloudscapes here as well, to the West and South.

Storm cells are now moving in on Wollongong and the Jervis Bay Area, with shower cells popping up in Sydney's South.

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#1467243 - 12/07/2018 16:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Snowmaker]
wilderwood Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/06/2009
Posts: 102
Loc: Southern Highlands
Hey is that what is was "soft hail" everyone at work convinced it was snow but 8 degrees seemed to warm. Bowral here.


Edited by wilderwood (12/07/2018 16:13)

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#1467245 - 12/07/2018 16:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: wilderwood]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4235
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Soft hail, also known as 'graupul' is snow inside frozen rain. Here's a reference: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graupel. It doesn't have to be that cold for it to fall. I recall a fall on the Central Coast several years ago (also happened in Sydney) when the temperature would have been about 10-12 degrees. It was basically like splats of icy slush on the windscreen and quickly melted, but if it was colder it could have been mistaken for snow.

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#1467246 - 12/07/2018 16:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1721
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
The radar here is showing showers coming in from the NW,nearly on top of me now,but there is'nt any clouds at all,only a few way up north but not towers,
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#1467247 - 12/07/2018 16:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Stormy3]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4961
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
The radar here is showing showers coming in from the NW,nearly on top of me now,but there is'nt any clouds at all,only a few way up north but not towers,


Yeah stormy3, the Newy radar has been picking up interference for the past few days now.

Beautiful day here.
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#1467249 - 12/07/2018 16:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5865
Loc: Dural
BOM going for -3 for Richmond on Sunday morning.
-9 for Cooma.
-6 for Bathurst and Orange
-7 for Jindabyne.
-10 for Perisher
-9 for Thredbo.


Edited by Homer (12/07/2018 16:49)

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#1467252 - 12/07/2018 16:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 367
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
It's about to get quite cold over here, I can physically see downdrafts as after the storm clouds have passed over. Against the sun light it seems like yellow stream of cloud are descending. Some rotation occurring as well according to the doppler as a line forms. Have fun the rest of the city.


Edited by ashestoashes (12/07/2018 16:57)

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#1467253 - 12/07/2018 17:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
wilderwood Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/06/2009
Posts: 102
Loc: Southern Highlands
Thanks Steve that is exactly what it was like, Graupel.

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#1467254 - 12/07/2018 18:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6884
It seemed sooo close to snow though, near the end of the storm it was falling more slowly. But yes I would also say it was soft hail.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1467258 - 12/07/2018 20:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 714
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Looking pretty terrible August and September, and considering the bureau has gotten winter right so far not looking good for most people. Just praying the outcomes do change though, because one big event can set us even-stevens. Hopefully it is a weak el nino or a warm-neutral because it leaves us with hope for Summer.


BoM was pretty wrong about June - it was cool and wet compared to their outlook, which predicted a warm and dry June.

July so far has above normal temperatures - no surprise after a mini winter heat wave - and is so far drier than normal. However, models suggest lower than normal temperatures will dominate remainder of the month. Drought breaking rain unfortunately remains elusive.

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#1467261 - 12/07/2018 22:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6884
Also got heavy graupel here this arvo as well. Many people thought it was snow of course but no way on the coastal plain.


Edited by Wave Rider (12/07/2018 22:57)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1467263 - 12/07/2018 23:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
perrywinkle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 448
Loc: Warrawee Valley
Interesting cloud patterns offshore central coast on radar. Two directions of travel, overlapping.

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#1467268 - 13/07/2018 00:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 439
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Was down near minnamurra rainforest when the rain hit. A few of the drops may have been graupel as it sounded quite loud on the windshield. Was quite odd. Not loud enough for hail but sounded softer than rain.

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