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#1467732 - 22/07/2018 19:37 Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thought I'd start this to give us another potential event that "could" counter the ongoing dry in Vic:




Only GFS above shows the timing of the cold air into low pressure as a "near enhanced low pressure system" - all other models show both systems arriving late next week - but too far apart to interact. Time will tell?

.....at least the pair of systems provides something to provoke some discussion???


Edited by Petros (22/07/2018 19:38)

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#1467763 - 23/07/2018 10:06 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Now looking pretty clear that the low will have scampered off into the Tasman before the next cold air injection arrives from the SW:


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#1467781 - 23/07/2018 18:30 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....however the latest CMC run shows the passage of the "non-invigorated" low pressure system may still be beneficial to Vic's grain growing regions as it passes?:


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#1467799 - 24/07/2018 11:49 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cold upper pool over VIC and South NSW by July 29th


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#1467807 - 24/07/2018 16:50 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep looks like something handy should come
Through during this period.
Some handy rain and more snow possibly

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#1467812 - 24/07/2018 18:27 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Cold upper pool over VIC and South NSW by July 29th



Yep, the gap between the passing closed low pressure system and the approaching cold air has now reduced on this mornings model run, allowing an offshore enhanced ECL closer to SE Aus than predicted yest.

May bring some wrap around rain to far E Vic in this threads date range?

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#1467815 - 24/07/2018 18:39 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hopefully with some useful rain in the grain growing regions ahead of this, .....looks like a wild snowy night (and very much needed rain in Gippsland) looming next Sunday??:


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#1467828 - 25/07/2018 09:23 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This potential system becomes interesting again, the low ahead of the approaching cold air now progged to stall over NSW and weaken out over Vic, remnants still around when the cold air eventually arrives? - more snow coming it seems?:


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#1467844 - 25/07/2018 18:08 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria missing out weak low sitting in NSW, so we wait next SW injection by Saturday 28th..

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#1467845 - 25/07/2018 18:23 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really liking this period on gfs tonight!
Front after front and snowy to with possibly 800-1000m
Snow level with each front!

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#1467868 - 26/07/2018 19:16 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This thread looks to be a blizzard outbreak to enhance already good snow totals for Vic/NSW?:


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#1467900 - 27/07/2018 19:22 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....and here we eventually end up, interaction with moisture and cold air from SW:



I'm interested.

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#1467921 - 28/07/2018 11:12 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still on track for decent rain/snow arriving in Vic this arvo through to Monday morning - now hoping for a 15mm tally here in N Gippsland.

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#1467932 - 28/07/2018 18:07 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
19.4C here today in mild sometimes sunny conditions (19.9C yesterday).

Low pressure is now over NSW, will sag down over Vic overnight, cold air will enhance it and provide some much needed rain for Vic's central and SE regions over the next 36 hrs?

BTW - how good are our short term models nowadays, if the inland low over NSW does sag over Vic tonight, ....the cold air ingredient currently looming into SA atm is basically exactly what GFS foretold at the start of this thread:



Edited by Petros (28/07/2018 18:16)

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#1467971 - 29/07/2018 18:10 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just tipped out 1.5mm from overnight showers. The cold airmass is now reaching into the Latrobe Valley, hopefully 4-5mm more for us later this evening? Baro inching up after sagging to 999hPa.

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#1467986 - 30/07/2018 09:20 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I was away over the weekend but seems next to nothing in rainfall here. Nothing in 7-day prospect. Need a break!

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#1467989 - 30/07/2018 11:11 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep same TB. .....and no more rain here overnight!

At least there is plenty of snow to fill Lake Glenmaggie in September.

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#1468020 - 31/07/2018 08:58 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Cold windy joint, think I'll go north again, low 20's, calm LOL laugh

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#1468024 - 31/07/2018 10:53 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thought the roof was going to blow off last night!

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#1468076 - 01/08/2018 07:34 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
3mm in gauge over last few days, barely worth recording.

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#1468094 - 01/08/2018 11:43 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 6 days front rain for July bring 50mm out of 56.4 average month.

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#1468100 - 01/08/2018 15:40 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Less than 1mm in the rain band that went through late last night.

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#1468125 - 02/08/2018 09:06 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
"Lucky" 2.5mm for us.

......to be more than evaporated in the mild windy weather/Foehn Effect for Gippsland over coming days frown

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#1468288 - 04/08/2018 18:20 Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 599
Loc: Corryong
16 mm rain last night hoping for more during the week.

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