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#1468179 - 02/08/2018 21:46 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
1 mm rain so far here in Gulfview Heights.
_________________________
Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1468180 - 02/08/2018 21:54 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Ok! Now it is finally raining:


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#1468190 - 02/08/2018 23:06 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
radar looks great but the rain isnt that hard.
radar overreading?

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#1468191 - 02/08/2018 23:07 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Lovely steady and soaking rain in Seaford Meadows atm, closing in on 10mm so far, certainly favouring the south atm with the angle of the slide, I initially thought about 14mm for me but I think I'll be knocking on the door of the old inch by 9am tomorrow. Very nice to see, given I am sitting at a paltry 163.2mm for the year (pretty ordinary for the western side of Mt.Lofty, it's very welcome).

Great to see some solid falls appearing over the EP as well after the terrible dust today, Wudinna closing in on the old inch.

NE EP and N YP wil be patchy as they have been shadowed by the ranges over EP....but should come in somewhere around 5-10mm by 9am, prob closer to the 10 than the 5.

TS cool

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#1468192 - 02/08/2018 23:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Eevo]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: Eevo
radar looks great but the rain isnt that hard.
radar overreading?


Normal rainband reflection tricks, Nimbostratus full of enormous snowflakes which will show heavier intensity than it really is once they melt into rain at ground level.

TS cool

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#1468211 - 03/08/2018 09:43 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1701
Loc: Uleybury
Some fantastic falls acorss the palce to 9AM,

22.0mm to 9am here at home, best fall for the year.

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#1468219 - 03/08/2018 11:13 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
willitrainagain Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 586
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
15mm here but hopefully a lot more to come

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#1468224 - 03/08/2018 12:56 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
2 stations in my suburb recorded 18 & 22mm

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#1468226 - 03/08/2018 14:06 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 18
Loc: Heathfield SA
TS you have given a brilliant description and forecast of events so far with this system(s). Also the importance of SAM for Southern South Australia. It really seems to predict our outcome here. It was in +ve phase earlier in winter and of course high pressures dominated and fronts were weak and at last it is in -ve phase and the fronts have moved further north and proper winter at last. Hopefully it can last a while. El-nino and IOD are important but for those in the south the SAM tells the story. It seems difficult to predict SAM for a long period ? reason.

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#1468228 - 03/08/2018 14:42 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
was some small hail in the cell.
temp dropped a few degreees too

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#1468238 - 03/08/2018 18:31 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Managed 7mm here today nice to see water falling from the sky again.
_________________________
YTD-88mm AVE-260mm

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#1468248 - 03/08/2018 21:16 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
Summary
January 1, 2018 - August 4, 2018
High Low
Temperature 39.9 C -0.3 C
Dew Point 20.5 C -13.4 C
Humidity 99% 10%
Precipitation 389.4 mm

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#1468249 - 03/08/2018 21:18 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
year to date, we're definitely down


2018 - 390mm
2017 - 540mm
2016 - 565mm

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#1468254 - 03/08/2018 21:44 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
24mm out of that - great!
Cycling to work at 6:30am was a laugh and a half, a bit surprised how high the Torrens had gotten by Lower Portrush Rd bridge.

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#1468304 - 05/08/2018 00:32 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: MGD]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: MGD
TS you have given a brilliant description and forecast of events so far with this system(s). Also the importance of SAM for Southern South Australia. It really seems to predict our outcome here. It was in +ve phase earlier in winter and of course high pressures dominated and fronts were weak and at last it is in -ve phase and the fronts have moved further north and proper winter at last. Hopefully it can last a while. El-nino and IOD are important but for those in the south the SAM tells the story. It seems difficult to predict SAM for a long period ? reason.


Cheers mate, so far so good and great to see some good falls over the EP especially. 27.2mm myself in Seaford Meadows, very happy with that and a further 1.6mm to 9am this morning.

Now the next front is sliding an sliding as expected with a rainband and a few elevated thunderstorms along it in parts of the EP coast just offshore sliding away. No surprise models going for 40-60mm in some of these areas offshore, though a solid 30-40mm area clips the far western portion of KI all the same.

Front then gets a kick overnight from another strong upper level trough and broad pool of cold air and moves through the Adelaide area in the morning with a mix of a rainband and very frequent showers, many bands, especially get strong lift into the hills so very wet there, be falls over 40mm in the hills by 9am monday most likely. Behind the frontal band the broad area of colder and more unstable air (much larger than your average cold pool) should see plenty of solid coldies with small hail and isolated cold air thunder and still a tiny chance of snow around Mt.Bryan etc but may be a stretch in the Flinders atm. The dynamics with this one are once again very substantial. The upper trough will continue to dig tomorrow as the polar jet comes up the western convergent side of the cold pool axis with a vicious mid level speed max. This then rounds the apex and presses up against the subtropical jet and accelerates down the lee side of the upper trough in an area of strong upper level divergence which will help fairly significant rain production and dynamic lift along the upper trough and any convective cells in the colder air behind. Should also help trigger an inland cloudband which should give some rain albeit small amounts to inland to NE NSW.

Later tuesday a raidly moving front will clip the coastline but slam into the Lower SE with a burst of heavier showers down there, bit less for the Adelaide area but still quite a decent amount into the hills...due to the zonal nature of this front and smaller reach, inland areas won't really see much, just a increase in NW-W flow as the isobars are squeezed.

System after now is a bit weaker however, models now showing a lack of moisture ahead of the fast moving front which gathers an area of very strong NW winds ahead of it much in the manner of a dry spring front....this may cause some raised dust inland, more likely the Riverland or where there has been less rain although recent rains will temper the ability of that. If this were the first system there would be widespread duststorms as the NW flow will be strong to gale force on friday. Aloft the mid level jet streak is more chiefly on the divergent side so will act to weaken the upper trough as it moves east rather than amplify it but nevertheless will still cause some solid dynamic lift near the front.

Once this front passes through later friday there should still be a spate of frequent showers, possibily briefly tending to rain again with a short and sharper cold pool blasting through into early saturday, again with chance of small hail and cold air thunder, rapidly easing later into the evening and sunday as a new ridge tries to push in.

All in all some more excellent rainfall to the farming areas, albeit perhaps some areas over the NE EP and Riverland, but they should get some all the same. Western KI, Lower SE Coast and the Adelaide Hills especially will come out on top by the end of this, the Hills wet spots especially could still see 150mm between now and sunday week.

TS cool

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#1468309 - 05/08/2018 09:41 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
26mm and still raining, what a wonderful event...events... 29mm/4mm/26mm = 59mm and still raining and a couple days to go!

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#1468311 - 05/08/2018 11:17 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 195
Loc: Reynella, SA
Thanks again TS for a very comprehensive summary/forecast of the system(s) for the next week. smile

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#1468323 - 05/08/2018 14:28 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
A further 9mm since9.00am...and still steady rain.....activity just snicking the coast ..TS your forecast is ringing very true for us, again a fantastic event still unfolding..

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#1468353 - 06/08/2018 00:09 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
14mm tonight so far

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#1468355 - 06/08/2018 07:52 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Bridgewater
lots of hail on the car.
got a cfs job at 540am. was doing 25 and sliding across the road.

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