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#1468358 - 06/08/2018 08:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Another 26mm , total for this event 85mm

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#1468378 - 06/08/2018 11:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
emptied the gauge on the:
31st - 2mm
3/8 - 24mm
6/8 11am - 27.5mm

So far for the event 53.5mm

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#1468380 - 06/08/2018 12:02 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 101
Small hail in the city. On level 12 at least...


Edited by *jr* (06/08/2018 12:03)

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#1468394 - 06/08/2018 14:38 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
43mm since nidnight

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#1468397 - 06/08/2018 14:55 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
24mm in my gauge now

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#1468419 - 06/08/2018 19:26 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Think Wednesday is going to surprise, especially for areas South of about Snowtown. Likely to see 5 mm plus for the Lower EP, and 10 mm for much of the YP as high as Wallaroo, and again good rain South of Gawler hading SE.

The system on the weekend could be the best system we have seen so far from this entire sequence, moisture might get in ahead of it and we are likely to see another cloud band develop that pushes well North, with a good 15 - 20 mm expected everywhere, levelling off to 5 - 10 mm for the Lower Flinders, and Northern EP.
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#1468461 - 07/08/2018 13:47 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
33.5mm so far in Clare. been shafted a bit with rainbands collapsing around us and the majorty of yesterdays showers going south but managed a couple of brief but heavy hail showers. nice to see -30 500s for the first time in a longtime, been very rare last couple of years. Some big hail dumps in the hills, also from those storms in the lower north. Tiny cores turning roads pure white, must have been bloody heavy.

Main interest for this weekends system outside of rain is snow potential. Still a long way out but based on all models snow is pretty likely 'somewhere' A few more days we will have a clearer picture.
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#1468466 - 07/08/2018 15:51 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Markus]
saltspray Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 119
Loc: West Lakes Shore SA
Same here. Watching it go right on by North and South of me. No hail here that I have seen and a paltry 12mm from the system.
Models showing quite a dump tonight and another over the weekend, so hopefully my totals will begin to rise. GFS saying around 5 next 24 hrs, same again over the weekend, so hopefully over an inch by this time next week ... with luck. Especially to our farmer friends who've missed out so far.

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#1468482 - 07/08/2018 20:27 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
8.5mm emptied out today taking the total to 62.

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#1468485 - 07/08/2018 21:23 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Another 4mm since last post yesterday afternoon.
So that's 52mm total since the start of this thread.

I need to cycle tomorrow morning so that should herald in the rain squalls! Bring it on!


Edited by betsuin (07/08/2018 21:27)

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#1468509 - 08/08/2018 13:40 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Heathfield SA
Just as most of coastal and southern SA is enjoying some proper winter at last thanks to favourable SAM, the BOM have spoilt the party saying below average rainfall for the rest of August extending into September and October. Any ideas on this one. Obviously there are adverse factors around like a possible el-nino and unfavourable water temps to the north but what about this elusive SAM. Do they know that far ahead? Could SAM stay -ve and allow the south a couple of decent months rainfall? Probably not good for inland areas but the forecast for the south must still be in a bit of doubt. Comments anyone.

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#1468530 - 08/08/2018 23:03 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And another 3mm in the gauge .. little by little

Didn't get rained on cycling this morning but it sure was wet ground .. woke with the pitter patter on the roof - always love that ;-)

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#1468532 - 09/08/2018 02:26 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well so far the systems have generally gone as expected, a nice 57.4mm for myself this month which is already well above any other month of the year and we are only 8 days in... not bad.

Next system moving in now, won't have as strong a gradient as some of the other but nevertheless still strong N/NW winds ahead later tomorrow and early friday which could raise dust again in areas that have not had enough rain, like the Riverland.

Strong upper trough, very long and angled back to the NW, doesn't pivot and stand up, just slides through until the last moment when the coldest air under the apex of the upper trough punches NNE directing some cold to very cold but also DRY air from the deep dark south.

But before that, there will be a rainband developing, chiefly along the coastal areas, sliding SE along the very strongly divergent region of the upper trough where the jetstream will indeed be powerful. Moisture is reasonable for this band of rain but given the sliding nature, this will not do inland areas such as pastorals or NE/N EP and the Riverland many favours. The southern portions of EP/YP/Fleurieu will once again do very well with solid 15-25mm falls and isolated higher falls about the ranges up to 50mm or so. As one goes north a more general 8-15mm seems likely and less than 5-8mm past about Jamestown or so, especially less east of the ranges where little if any will fall.

Once the cold air pushes up during saturday afternoon the risk of hailshowers increases with also a fair chance of some cold air thunder although the window for the thunder will be less than the hail due to the coldest mid level air which will allow a greater convective cloud depth being further east by later saturday when the coldest air in the lower levels moves in during saturday evening. This might also muck up snow chances over Mt.Lofty although a brief flurry cannot be ruled out anytime from lunchtime saturday right through till midnight or so but moisture will be minimal and will also rely on a stream angling up into the Lofty region. It seems very likely that the Mid North will see some snow, Mt.Bryan and nearby hills the most likely but also cannot rule out Mt.Remarkable either and this again depends on streams but it looks cold enough to me.

After this a large high moves in quickly which will prove a very nasty frost risk sunday night and monday night with the sinking of such cold air..

Longer term in answer to your thought MGD the negative SAM will quieten down and things will dry up but I expect the increasing vertical motion in the Indian to give way at some point during late August or early September with a higher potential for NW feeds...the MJO is forecast to re-gather in phase 2-4 or so in general which will favour increased Indian convection in general and less in the Pacific I wouldn't be too worried about any El Nino development having an effect on us now due to this.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (09/08/2018 02:26)

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#1468537 - 09/08/2018 07:57 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
After next weeks system the whole pattern is shifting, we will see the AAO go neutral and that will allow moisture to start feeding in a bit more. The dry air thats been sitting over the country will start to be eroded as the MJO will swing the balance of Velocity potential in our favour within a fortnight.
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#1468545 - 09/08/2018 13:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7363
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep TS & AV - looking forward to a normal early spring with actual NW cloudbands arriving into SE Aus to increase chances of decent wet events.

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#1468555 - 09/08/2018 19:01 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
TS - again a great write up - thanks so much!
Nice looking system out there:


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#1468560 - 09/08/2018 20:28 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
A further 2mm Tuesday night / Wednesday 8th morning brings the total to 64mm or 62mm for the month.

First creek is running nice, quite clear and a steady level since the last of the showers.

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#1468562 - 09/08/2018 21:10 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East, Lower South East and parts of Lower Eyre Peninsula and Flinders districts.

Issued at 4:55 pm Thursday, 9 August 2018.

A cold front will enter the far west of the State this evening, reaching Nullarbor around midnight. The front will continue to move east over central and eastern districts on Friday.

Well ahead of the front, north to northwesterly winds averaging 50-65 km/h with isolated damaging gusts of 90-100 km/h are forecast to develop over parts of the warning from around midnight. Areas likely to be initially affected are near and lee of elevated terrain on Eyre Peninsula and through the southern Mount Lofty Ranges.

These winds will begin to become more widely experienced over remaining central and eastern parts of the warning area after sunrise on Friday, before easing early afternoon.

For the Adelaide area this is not expected to be a high impact event, however some localised damaging gusts may occur during Friday morning.

Locations which may be affected include Cleve, Victor Harbor, Strathalbyn, Whyalla, Maitland, Kingscote, Clare, Murray Bridge, Renmark, Naracoorte and Mount Gambier.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday.

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#1468574 - 10/08/2018 10:12 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
Mount Lofty Ranges area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Possible small hail. Possible snow about the highest peaks in the middle of the day.

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#1468582 - 10/08/2018 15:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 101
snow pixel spotted.

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