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#1468011 - 30/07/2018 20:40 SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ?
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
So a new week and a new series of fronts - almost getting predictable! Once again this coming Thursday (2 Aug) evening looking promising for some rain.
Sure hope that nice looking swirl in the Him8 image actually gets here

GFS only stretches out a week and it looked as if we might get more fronts after that. I've emptied my rain-gauge in anticipation!


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#1468013 - 30/07/2018 23:03 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And the first of many we hope:


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#1468029 - 31/07/2018 13:07 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
2mm for me overnight.Showers appearing on the radar with the cold front should deliver a few more this afternoon/evening.

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#1468030 - 31/07/2018 14:15 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Thursday's system is indeed my area of interest with a very tall front to be associated with the low.

Solid Low Level Jet across the state on Thursday with areas peaking 130-140km/h at 850 which is very strong, EC has gusts well into the low 100s to 110 across the Eyre Peninsula so will expect some raised dust out that way and might even see some on the Adelaide Plains later in the day. Gale northerly winds will also filter into thestate bumping temperatures well above average with the city to see 21, 22 for the Northern Suburbs.

Rainfall is looking decent, looks to be around 10-25mm for it, with greater falls in the hills

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#1468061 - 31/07/2018 20:19 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: StormCapture
Thursday's system is indeed my area of interest with a very tall front to be associated with the low.


And that really has been the weekly news!
A small system on Monday/Tuesday then the main event Thursday.

This one seems to kick on a bit which ThD Ht hinted at - hope he's correct.

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#1468074 - 01/08/2018 01:34 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yep, serious barrage of strong cold fronts with sharp upper troughs, standing tall. Nice rainband for the first one then multiple waves after that, will do better write-up tomorrow evening.

TS cool

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#1468075 - 01/08/2018 07:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Cant say im looking forward to it honestly just more damaging wind with bugger all rain for here, so the drought just keeps getting worse.


Edited by roves (01/08/2018 07:19)
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#1468106 - 01/08/2018 18:45 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Well the last couple of days have 3mm in my rain gauge.

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#1468117 - 02/08/2018 01:24 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
First really high standing cold front of the winter season and it's into August. Though this is the month for them to do that so no big surprise there. Right behind aloft is a very strong high amplitude upper trough with a vigourous jetstream ahead of it right through the troposphere.

Currently we have moisture feeding in ahead of the cold front through inland WA from the Timor Sea, mostly fairly low to mid level (under about 15,000ft). Once the cold front and associated upper trough closes in overnight and during tomorrow a good rainband will develop from this cloud over the western and inland pastoral areas of the state, rapidly feeding SSE along the strong jetstream and slowly advancing eastwards towards the Central and Eastern areas.

Now in the lower levels there will be a significant low level jetstream from the N where the strong cold front will squeeze the isobars hard and close together as it rams into the large high further east. This flow will gradually mix down to the surface during the day and with it will bring a lot of raised dust from pastoral and areas that have received low rainfall this year (chiefly any ploughed ground over Riverland, Mallee, Upper Mid North, Northern YP/EP and pastorals. All this will blow south towards the southern coastlines including Adelaide. The worst will probably be over the Eyre Peninsula where the strongest winds from the Low level jet will be giving the greatest dust raising potential but also the pocket east of the ranges in the mid north has been very dry and this could present a fair deal of dust a little later to the Riverland and Mallee areas in particular. But generally, plenty of raised dust, the sky will take on an orange to brown hue and visibility will be reduced, potentially quite strongly in some areas, further south into the SE districts it might only be a bit of a haze.

Towards evening the rainband will move east reaching Adelaide probably by 4pm or so, with intially rain being mid level based and light/patchy but gradually the bases should lower into a solid Nimbostratus deck and rain steadily into friday morning before easing with the back edge near Adelaide about 3:30-4am and contracting eastwards. It won't really reach the Riverland area until after midnight at this stage but hopefully not too late.

Behind the front is some colder and more unstable area on the back of the raindband and this will pass over the Bight and into the southern ag areas including Adelaide around dawn or so with some solid convective showers and some isolated thunderstorms here and there but you'll be lucky if you do get a storm all the same due to the nature of coldies.

After this the rainband contracts eastward and stream showers in the moderating flow remain through the day but most of the rain should fall before another cold front moves in chiefly for the southern coastal areas friday night.

After this things get complex....models agree about a significant cold front and upper trough once again but this one slowly comes in late saturday after sliding and slidng along the Bight/coastal areas before the cold air slings up and launches inland....this one could well be cold enough to give some flakes to the highest peaks of the Mid North like Mt.Bryan and possibly into the Flinders like St.Mary's peak etc. It is less likely for Mt.Lofty however due to the angle of cold air and the lack of true coldness needed for Lofty to get flakes at a lower elevation than the others, but hail and some cold air thunder likely along with a lot of showers, heavy at times, especially along the frontal band before the colder air.

Beyond this, a mixture of fine day and more fronts and possibly stronger cold air blasts towards August 10 but that may need another thread?

Rainfall wise most should see 8-15mm from the rainband, apart from the Riverland which will be closer to 2-5mm. Higher totals up to 30mm possible about far southern EP and the Mt.Lofty Ranges. in Adelaide I'm thinking about 14mm from the raiband and 3-5mm from showers after from the first system. Will re-asses totals from the others after however it looks like a very wet 2 weeks for the coasts and ranges, could easily crack 200mm in the wetter spots of the Adelaide Hills by then, places like Uraidla, Woodhouse etc...and a good 75-100mm for more coastal parts of the Lower SE (already flooded) and western parts of KI, and very coastal parts of EP could be up to 60mm...so certainly a very good drink in the coming 2 weeks with regular fronts largely thanks to a very active phase of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode) which has gone strongly negative (which means higher amplitude cold fronts pushing up with the highs moving much further north...i.e a good old fashioned winter pattern).

Hopefully the dust isn't too bad tomorrow but I fear it will be fairly substantial so wear a mask if in doubt about your reactions to it or if you suffer from respiratory conditions!!

TS cool

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#1468120 - 02/08/2018 07:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Great write up TS - snow? That should grab a bit of attention!
Fun times getting to work on the push-bike :-)

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#1468133 - 02/08/2018 10:29 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Cheers for the write up TS. Good to see some decent winter weather coming out way. (feels a bit spring like this morning I must say)

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#1468141 - 02/08/2018 13:29 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Eyre Peninsula being choked in dust at the moment.

Max Wind Gusts to 1250pm (in km/h)
Cleve 102
Port Lincoln 87
Cultana 87
Minlaton 89
Kadina 83

Many more in the 70s and 80s

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#1468144 - 02/08/2018 14:45 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
And quite calm here atm

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#1468146 - 02/08/2018 14:55 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
dead calm

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#1468151 - 02/08/2018 16:42 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Radar looking good over York Peninsular atm

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#1468154 - 02/08/2018 17:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Pooraka]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Pooraka
Radar looking good over York Peninsular atm


Indeed:



PS: Cancellation Severe Weather Warning

For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, North West Pastoral and North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 4:29 pm Thursday, 2 August 2018.

Severe weather is no longer occurring in South Australia.


Edited by betsuin (02/08/2018 17:12)

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#1468168 - 02/08/2018 19:46 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7583
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Looking forward to every drop of rain that falls out of the sky between now and approximately the 10th of August smile !

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#1468172 - 02/08/2018 20:16 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Hmm... I've got the below on rain radar but outside it is barely sprinkling!


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#1468176 - 02/08/2018 20:59 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Heathfield SA
Radar is impressive but it is still not raining ( at least not recordable ). I hope that changes soon. Incredible at the moment!!

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#1468177 - 02/08/2018 21:25 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Great write up Lennie always an informative read

Yeah active 2 weeks for you guys, great rain for loftys and coastals but little inland after this front.

Easy 100-150mm totals in loftys next 7 days as deep lows barrel there way across southern Australia lots of wind to

Classic winter for sure
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