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#1468011 - 30/07/2018 20:40 SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ?
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
So a new week and a new series of fronts - almost getting predictable! Once again this coming Thursday (2 Aug) evening looking promising for some rain.
Sure hope that nice looking swirl in the Him8 image actually gets here

GFS only stretches out a week and it looked as if we might get more fronts after that. I've emptied my rain-gauge in anticipation!


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#1468013 - 30/07/2018 23:03 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And the first of many we hope:


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#1468029 - 31/07/2018 13:07 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
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Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
2mm for me overnight.Showers appearing on the radar with the cold front should deliver a few more this afternoon/evening.

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#1468030 - 31/07/2018 14:15 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Thursday's system is indeed my area of interest with a very tall front to be associated with the low.

Solid Low Level Jet across the state on Thursday with areas peaking 130-140km/h at 850 which is very strong, EC has gusts well into the low 100s to 110 across the Eyre Peninsula so will expect some raised dust out that way and might even see some on the Adelaide Plains later in the day. Gale northerly winds will also filter into thestate bumping temperatures well above average with the city to see 21, 22 for the Northern Suburbs.

Rainfall is looking decent, looks to be around 10-25mm for it, with greater falls in the hills

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#1468061 - 31/07/2018 20:19 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: StormCapture
Thursday's system is indeed my area of interest with a very tall front to be associated with the low.


And that really has been the weekly news!
A small system on Monday/Tuesday then the main event Thursday.

This one seems to kick on a bit which ThD Ht hinted at - hope he's correct.

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#1468074 - 01/08/2018 01:34 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yep, serious barrage of strong cold fronts with sharp upper troughs, standing tall. Nice rainband for the first one then multiple waves after that, will do better write-up tomorrow evening.

TS cool

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#1468075 - 01/08/2018 07:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
roves Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Cant say im looking forward to it honestly just more damaging wind with bugger all rain for here, so the drought just keeps getting worse.


Edited by roves (01/08/2018 07:19)
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#1468106 - 01/08/2018 18:45 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Well the last couple of days have 3mm in my rain gauge.

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#1468117 - 02/08/2018 01:24 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
First really high standing cold front of the winter season and it's into August. Though this is the month for them to do that so no big surprise there. Right behind aloft is a very strong high amplitude upper trough with a vigourous jetstream ahead of it right through the troposphere.

Currently we have moisture feeding in ahead of the cold front through inland WA from the Timor Sea, mostly fairly low to mid level (under about 15,000ft). Once the cold front and associated upper trough closes in overnight and during tomorrow a good rainband will develop from this cloud over the western and inland pastoral areas of the state, rapidly feeding SSE along the strong jetstream and slowly advancing eastwards towards the Central and Eastern areas.

Now in the lower levels there will be a significant low level jetstream from the N where the strong cold front will squeeze the isobars hard and close together as it rams into the large high further east. This flow will gradually mix down to the surface during the day and with it will bring a lot of raised dust from pastoral and areas that have received low rainfall this year (chiefly any ploughed ground over Riverland, Mallee, Upper Mid North, Northern YP/EP and pastorals. All this will blow south towards the southern coastlines including Adelaide. The worst will probably be over the Eyre Peninsula where the strongest winds from the Low level jet will be giving the greatest dust raising potential but also the pocket east of the ranges in the mid north has been very dry and this could present a fair deal of dust a little later to the Riverland and Mallee areas in particular. But generally, plenty of raised dust, the sky will take on an orange to brown hue and visibility will be reduced, potentially quite strongly in some areas, further south into the SE districts it might only be a bit of a haze.

Towards evening the rainband will move east reaching Adelaide probably by 4pm or so, with intially rain being mid level based and light/patchy but gradually the bases should lower into a solid Nimbostratus deck and rain steadily into friday morning before easing with the back edge near Adelaide about 3:30-4am and contracting eastwards. It won't really reach the Riverland area until after midnight at this stage but hopefully not too late.

Behind the front is some colder and more unstable area on the back of the raindband and this will pass over the Bight and into the southern ag areas including Adelaide around dawn or so with some solid convective showers and some isolated thunderstorms here and there but you'll be lucky if you do get a storm all the same due to the nature of coldies.

After this the rainband contracts eastward and stream showers in the moderating flow remain through the day but most of the rain should fall before another cold front moves in chiefly for the southern coastal areas friday night.

After this things get complex....models agree about a significant cold front and upper trough once again but this one slowly comes in late saturday after sliding and slidng along the Bight/coastal areas before the cold air slings up and launches inland....this one could well be cold enough to give some flakes to the highest peaks of the Mid North like Mt.Bryan and possibly into the Flinders like St.Mary's peak etc. It is less likely for Mt.Lofty however due to the angle of cold air and the lack of true coldness needed for Lofty to get flakes at a lower elevation than the others, but hail and some cold air thunder likely along with a lot of showers, heavy at times, especially along the frontal band before the colder air.

Beyond this, a mixture of fine day and more fronts and possibly stronger cold air blasts towards August 10 but that may need another thread?

Rainfall wise most should see 8-15mm from the rainband, apart from the Riverland which will be closer to 2-5mm. Higher totals up to 30mm possible about far southern EP and the Mt.Lofty Ranges. in Adelaide I'm thinking about 14mm from the raiband and 3-5mm from showers after from the first system. Will re-asses totals from the others after however it looks like a very wet 2 weeks for the coasts and ranges, could easily crack 200mm in the wetter spots of the Adelaide Hills by then, places like Uraidla, Woodhouse etc...and a good 75-100mm for more coastal parts of the Lower SE (already flooded) and western parts of KI, and very coastal parts of EP could be up to 60mm...so certainly a very good drink in the coming 2 weeks with regular fronts largely thanks to a very active phase of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode) which has gone strongly negative (which means higher amplitude cold fronts pushing up with the highs moving much further north...i.e a good old fashioned winter pattern).

Hopefully the dust isn't too bad tomorrow but I fear it will be fairly substantial so wear a mask if in doubt about your reactions to it or if you suffer from respiratory conditions!!

TS cool

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#1468120 - 02/08/2018 07:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Great write up TS - snow? That should grab a bit of attention!
Fun times getting to work on the push-bike :-)

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#1468133 - 02/08/2018 10:29 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Pooraka Offline
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Registered: 24/02/2006
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Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Cheers for the write up TS. Good to see some decent winter weather coming out way. (feels a bit spring like this morning I must say)

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#1468141 - 02/08/2018 13:29 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Eyre Peninsula being choked in dust at the moment.

Max Wind Gusts to 1250pm (in km/h)
Cleve 102
Port Lincoln 87
Cultana 87
Minlaton 89
Kadina 83

Many more in the 70s and 80s

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#1468144 - 02/08/2018 14:45 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
willitrainagain Offline
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Registered: 13/12/2011
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Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
And quite calm here atm

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#1468146 - 02/08/2018 14:55 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
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Loc: Bridgewater
dead calm

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#1468151 - 02/08/2018 16:42 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Pooraka Offline
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Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Radar looking good over York Peninsular atm

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#1468154 - 02/08/2018 17:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Pooraka]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Pooraka
Radar looking good over York Peninsular atm


Indeed:



PS: Cancellation Severe Weather Warning

For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, North West Pastoral and North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 4:29 pm Thursday, 2 August 2018.

Severe weather is no longer occurring in South Australia.


Edited by betsuin (02/08/2018 17:12)

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#1468168 - 02/08/2018 19:46 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7583
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Looking forward to every drop of rain that falls out of the sky between now and approximately the 10th of August smile !

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#1468172 - 02/08/2018 20:16 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Hmm... I've got the below on rain radar but outside it is barely sprinkling!


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#1468176 - 02/08/2018 20:59 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
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Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Heathfield SA
Radar is impressive but it is still not raining ( at least not recordable ). I hope that changes soon. Incredible at the moment!!

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#1468177 - 02/08/2018 21:25 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Twister1 Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Great write up Lennie always an informative read

Yeah active 2 weeks for you guys, great rain for loftys and coastals but little inland after this front.

Easy 100-150mm totals in loftys next 7 days as deep lows barrel there way across southern Australia lots of wind to

Classic winter for sure
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#1468179 - 02/08/2018 21:46 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
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Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
1 mm rain so far here in Gulfview Heights.
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#1468180 - 02/08/2018 21:54 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Ok! Now it is finally raining:


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#1468190 - 02/08/2018 23:06 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
radar looks great but the rain isnt that hard.
radar overreading?

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#1468191 - 02/08/2018 23:07 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Lovely steady and soaking rain in Seaford Meadows atm, closing in on 10mm so far, certainly favouring the south atm with the angle of the slide, I initially thought about 14mm for me but I think I'll be knocking on the door of the old inch by 9am tomorrow. Very nice to see, given I am sitting at a paltry 163.2mm for the year (pretty ordinary for the western side of Mt.Lofty, it's very welcome).

Great to see some solid falls appearing over the EP as well after the terrible dust today, Wudinna closing in on the old inch.

NE EP and N YP wil be patchy as they have been shadowed by the ranges over EP....but should come in somewhere around 5-10mm by 9am, prob closer to the 10 than the 5.

TS cool

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#1468192 - 02/08/2018 23:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Eevo]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: Eevo
radar looks great but the rain isnt that hard.
radar overreading?


Normal rainband reflection tricks, Nimbostratus full of enormous snowflakes which will show heavier intensity than it really is once they melt into rain at ground level.

TS cool

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#1468211 - 03/08/2018 09:43 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Some fantastic falls acorss the palce to 9AM,

22.0mm to 9am here at home, best fall for the year.

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#1468219 - 03/08/2018 11:13 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
willitrainagain Offline
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Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
15mm here but hopefully a lot more to come

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#1468224 - 03/08/2018 12:56 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
2 stations in my suburb recorded 18 & 22mm

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#1468226 - 03/08/2018 14:06 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Heathfield SA
TS you have given a brilliant description and forecast of events so far with this system(s). Also the importance of SAM for Southern South Australia. It really seems to predict our outcome here. It was in +ve phase earlier in winter and of course high pressures dominated and fronts were weak and at last it is in -ve phase and the fronts have moved further north and proper winter at last. Hopefully it can last a while. El-nino and IOD are important but for those in the south the SAM tells the story. It seems difficult to predict SAM for a long period ? reason.

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#1468228 - 03/08/2018 14:42 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
was some small hail in the cell.
temp dropped a few degreees too

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#1468238 - 03/08/2018 18:31 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
roves Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Managed 7mm here today nice to see water falling from the sky again.
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#1468248 - 03/08/2018 21:16 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
Summary
January 1, 2018 - August 4, 2018
High Low
Temperature 39.9 C -0.3 C
Dew Point 20.5 C -13.4 C
Humidity 99% 10%
Precipitation 389.4 mm

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#1468249 - 03/08/2018 21:18 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
year to date, we're definitely down


2018 - 390mm
2017 - 540mm
2016 - 565mm

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#1468254 - 03/08/2018 21:44 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
24mm out of that - great!
Cycling to work at 6:30am was a laugh and a half, a bit surprised how high the Torrens had gotten by Lower Portrush Rd bridge.

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#1468304 - 05/08/2018 00:32 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: MGD]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: MGD
TS you have given a brilliant description and forecast of events so far with this system(s). Also the importance of SAM for Southern South Australia. It really seems to predict our outcome here. It was in +ve phase earlier in winter and of course high pressures dominated and fronts were weak and at last it is in -ve phase and the fronts have moved further north and proper winter at last. Hopefully it can last a while. El-nino and IOD are important but for those in the south the SAM tells the story. It seems difficult to predict SAM for a long period ? reason.


Cheers mate, so far so good and great to see some good falls over the EP especially. 27.2mm myself in Seaford Meadows, very happy with that and a further 1.6mm to 9am this morning.

Now the next front is sliding an sliding as expected with a rainband and a few elevated thunderstorms along it in parts of the EP coast just offshore sliding away. No surprise models going for 40-60mm in some of these areas offshore, though a solid 30-40mm area clips the far western portion of KI all the same.

Front then gets a kick overnight from another strong upper level trough and broad pool of cold air and moves through the Adelaide area in the morning with a mix of a rainband and very frequent showers, many bands, especially get strong lift into the hills so very wet there, be falls over 40mm in the hills by 9am monday most likely. Behind the frontal band the broad area of colder and more unstable air (much larger than your average cold pool) should see plenty of solid coldies with small hail and isolated cold air thunder and still a tiny chance of snow around Mt.Bryan etc but may be a stretch in the Flinders atm. The dynamics with this one are once again very substantial. The upper trough will continue to dig tomorrow as the polar jet comes up the western convergent side of the cold pool axis with a vicious mid level speed max. This then rounds the apex and presses up against the subtropical jet and accelerates down the lee side of the upper trough in an area of strong upper level divergence which will help fairly significant rain production and dynamic lift along the upper trough and any convective cells in the colder air behind. Should also help trigger an inland cloudband which should give some rain albeit small amounts to inland to NE NSW.

Later tuesday a raidly moving front will clip the coastline but slam into the Lower SE with a burst of heavier showers down there, bit less for the Adelaide area but still quite a decent amount into the hills...due to the zonal nature of this front and smaller reach, inland areas won't really see much, just a increase in NW-W flow as the isobars are squeezed.

System after now is a bit weaker however, models now showing a lack of moisture ahead of the fast moving front which gathers an area of very strong NW winds ahead of it much in the manner of a dry spring front....this may cause some raised dust inland, more likely the Riverland or where there has been less rain although recent rains will temper the ability of that. If this were the first system there would be widespread duststorms as the NW flow will be strong to gale force on friday. Aloft the mid level jet streak is more chiefly on the divergent side so will act to weaken the upper trough as it moves east rather than amplify it but nevertheless will still cause some solid dynamic lift near the front.

Once this front passes through later friday there should still be a spate of frequent showers, possibily briefly tending to rain again with a short and sharper cold pool blasting through into early saturday, again with chance of small hail and cold air thunder, rapidly easing later into the evening and sunday as a new ridge tries to push in.

All in all some more excellent rainfall to the farming areas, albeit perhaps some areas over the NE EP and Riverland, but they should get some all the same. Western KI, Lower SE Coast and the Adelaide Hills especially will come out on top by the end of this, the Hills wet spots especially could still see 150mm between now and sunday week.

TS cool

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#1468309 - 05/08/2018 09:41 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
26mm and still raining, what a wonderful event...events... 29mm/4mm/26mm = 59mm and still raining and a couple days to go!

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#1468311 - 05/08/2018 11:17 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
puddles Offline
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Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 192
Loc: Reynella, SA
Thanks again TS for a very comprehensive summary/forecast of the system(s) for the next week. smile

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#1468323 - 05/08/2018 14:28 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
A further 9mm since9.00am...and still steady rain.....activity just snicking the coast ..TS your forecast is ringing very true for us, again a fantastic event still unfolding..

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#1468353 - 06/08/2018 00:09 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
14mm tonight so far

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#1468355 - 06/08/2018 07:52 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
lots of hail on the car.
got a cfs job at 540am. was doing 25 and sliding across the road.

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#1468358 - 06/08/2018 08:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Another 26mm , total for this event 85mm

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#1468378 - 06/08/2018 11:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
emptied the gauge on the:
31st - 2mm
3/8 - 24mm
6/8 11am - 27.5mm

So far for the event 53.5mm

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#1468380 - 06/08/2018 12:02 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
*jr* Offline
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Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 101
Small hail in the city. On level 12 at least...


Edited by *jr* (06/08/2018 12:03)

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#1468394 - 06/08/2018 14:38 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
43mm since nidnight

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#1468397 - 06/08/2018 14:55 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
24mm in my gauge now

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#1468419 - 06/08/2018 19:26 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Think Wednesday is going to surprise, especially for areas South of about Snowtown. Likely to see 5 mm plus for the Lower EP, and 10 mm for much of the YP as high as Wallaroo, and again good rain South of Gawler hading SE.

The system on the weekend could be the best system we have seen so far from this entire sequence, moisture might get in ahead of it and we are likely to see another cloud band develop that pushes well North, with a good 15 - 20 mm expected everywhere, levelling off to 5 - 10 mm for the Lower Flinders, and Northern EP.
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#1468461 - 07/08/2018 13:47 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
33.5mm so far in Clare. been shafted a bit with rainbands collapsing around us and the majorty of yesterdays showers going south but managed a couple of brief but heavy hail showers. nice to see -30 500s for the first time in a longtime, been very rare last couple of years. Some big hail dumps in the hills, also from those storms in the lower north. Tiny cores turning roads pure white, must have been bloody heavy.

Main interest for this weekends system outside of rain is snow potential. Still a long way out but based on all models snow is pretty likely 'somewhere' A few more days we will have a clearer picture.
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#1468466 - 07/08/2018 15:51 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Markus]
saltspray Offline
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Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 119
Loc: West Lakes Shore SA
Same here. Watching it go right on by North and South of me. No hail here that I have seen and a paltry 12mm from the system.
Models showing quite a dump tonight and another over the weekend, so hopefully my totals will begin to rise. GFS saying around 5 next 24 hrs, same again over the weekend, so hopefully over an inch by this time next week ... with luck. Especially to our farmer friends who've missed out so far.

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#1468482 - 07/08/2018 20:27 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
8.5mm emptied out today taking the total to 62.

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#1468485 - 07/08/2018 21:23 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
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Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Another 4mm since last post yesterday afternoon.
So that's 52mm total since the start of this thread.

I need to cycle tomorrow morning so that should herald in the rain squalls! Bring it on!


Edited by betsuin (07/08/2018 21:27)

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#1468509 - 08/08/2018 13:40 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Heathfield SA
Just as most of coastal and southern SA is enjoying some proper winter at last thanks to favourable SAM, the BOM have spoilt the party saying below average rainfall for the rest of August extending into September and October. Any ideas on this one. Obviously there are adverse factors around like a possible el-nino and unfavourable water temps to the north but what about this elusive SAM. Do they know that far ahead? Could SAM stay -ve and allow the south a couple of decent months rainfall? Probably not good for inland areas but the forecast for the south must still be in a bit of doubt. Comments anyone.

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#1468530 - 08/08/2018 23:03 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And another 3mm in the gauge .. little by little

Didn't get rained on cycling this morning but it sure was wet ground .. woke with the pitter patter on the roof - always love that ;-)

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#1468532 - 09/08/2018 02:26 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well so far the systems have generally gone as expected, a nice 57.4mm for myself this month which is already well above any other month of the year and we are only 8 days in... not bad.

Next system moving in now, won't have as strong a gradient as some of the other but nevertheless still strong N/NW winds ahead later tomorrow and early friday which could raise dust again in areas that have not had enough rain, like the Riverland.

Strong upper trough, very long and angled back to the NW, doesn't pivot and stand up, just slides through until the last moment when the coldest air under the apex of the upper trough punches NNE directing some cold to very cold but also DRY air from the deep dark south.

But before that, there will be a rainband developing, chiefly along the coastal areas, sliding SE along the very strongly divergent region of the upper trough where the jetstream will indeed be powerful. Moisture is reasonable for this band of rain but given the sliding nature, this will not do inland areas such as pastorals or NE/N EP and the Riverland many favours. The southern portions of EP/YP/Fleurieu will once again do very well with solid 15-25mm falls and isolated higher falls about the ranges up to 50mm or so. As one goes north a more general 8-15mm seems likely and less than 5-8mm past about Jamestown or so, especially less east of the ranges where little if any will fall.

Once the cold air pushes up during saturday afternoon the risk of hailshowers increases with also a fair chance of some cold air thunder although the window for the thunder will be less than the hail due to the coldest mid level air which will allow a greater convective cloud depth being further east by later saturday when the coldest air in the lower levels moves in during saturday evening. This might also muck up snow chances over Mt.Lofty although a brief flurry cannot be ruled out anytime from lunchtime saturday right through till midnight or so but moisture will be minimal and will also rely on a stream angling up into the Lofty region. It seems very likely that the Mid North will see some snow, Mt.Bryan and nearby hills the most likely but also cannot rule out Mt.Remarkable either and this again depends on streams but it looks cold enough to me.

After this a large high moves in quickly which will prove a very nasty frost risk sunday night and monday night with the sinking of such cold air..

Longer term in answer to your thought MGD the negative SAM will quieten down and things will dry up but I expect the increasing vertical motion in the Indian to give way at some point during late August or early September with a higher potential for NW feeds...the MJO is forecast to re-gather in phase 2-4 or so in general which will favour increased Indian convection in general and less in the Pacific I wouldn't be too worried about any El Nino development having an effect on us now due to this.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (09/08/2018 02:26)

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#1468537 - 09/08/2018 07:57 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
After next weeks system the whole pattern is shifting, we will see the AAO go neutral and that will allow moisture to start feeding in a bit more. The dry air thats been sitting over the country will start to be eroded as the MJO will swing the balance of Velocity potential in our favour within a fortnight.
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#1468545 - 09/08/2018 13:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7363
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep TS & AV - looking forward to a normal early spring with actual NW cloudbands arriving into SE Aus to increase chances of decent wet events.

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#1468555 - 09/08/2018 19:01 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
TS - again a great write up - thanks so much!
Nice looking system out there:


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#1468560 - 09/08/2018 20:28 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
A further 2mm Tuesday night / Wednesday 8th morning brings the total to 64mm or 62mm for the month.

First creek is running nice, quite clear and a steady level since the last of the showers.

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#1468562 - 09/08/2018 21:10 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East, Lower South East and parts of Lower Eyre Peninsula and Flinders districts.

Issued at 4:55 pm Thursday, 9 August 2018.

A cold front will enter the far west of the State this evening, reaching Nullarbor around midnight. The front will continue to move east over central and eastern districts on Friday.

Well ahead of the front, north to northwesterly winds averaging 50-65 km/h with isolated damaging gusts of 90-100 km/h are forecast to develop over parts of the warning from around midnight. Areas likely to be initially affected are near and lee of elevated terrain on Eyre Peninsula and through the southern Mount Lofty Ranges.

These winds will begin to become more widely experienced over remaining central and eastern parts of the warning area after sunrise on Friday, before easing early afternoon.

For the Adelaide area this is not expected to be a high impact event, however some localised damaging gusts may occur during Friday morning.

Locations which may be affected include Cleve, Victor Harbor, Strathalbyn, Whyalla, Maitland, Kingscote, Clare, Murray Bridge, Renmark, Naracoorte and Mount Gambier.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday.

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#1468574 - 10/08/2018 10:12 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
Mount Lofty Ranges area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Possible small hail. Possible snow about the highest peaks in the middle of the day.

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#1468582 - 10/08/2018 15:08 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 101
snow pixel spotted.

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#1468593 - 10/08/2018 16:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Geez, left work to return home - brr! Noticeable temperature drop.
5degC degrees actually from when I ventured out for lunch looking at Kent Town.

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#1468597 - 10/08/2018 16:53 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: *jr*]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: *jr*
snow pixel spotted.


Mt Bryan 19:30 Saturday evening...

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#1468599 - 10/08/2018 16:56 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
HillsStorm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2018
Posts: 27
Markus experienced player on ball, pick snow chance early few days now here tomorrow. Temp drop too 1-2 degree there tomorrow late morning with shower then snow haha.

Also bigger total than forecast tonight, 50mm many area hills, watch flood with river.

Media bla bla snow Mt Lofty on news tonight cause danger tomorrow and too many people go look, not good.

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#1468619 - 10/08/2018 19:04 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Lashing rain and strong gusts with this developing rainband up here, sounds the most wild of the whole winter...a fun 24 hours to come!
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#1468622 - 10/08/2018 19:44 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide

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#1468623 - 10/08/2018 20:00 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Half an inch so far this evening smile
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#1468634 - 10/08/2018 21:12 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Streams!



Pitter Patter here :-)


Edited by betsuin (10/08/2018 21:13)

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#1468645 - 11/08/2018 08:56 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Cold air has arrived...currently 2.3 at lofty with a passing shower. Best bet up here for snow looks to be this arvo. Hopefully the precip will play nice.
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#1468646 - 11/08/2018 09:09 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
How high in altitude is lofty?

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#1468647 - 11/08/2018 09:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope u guys get to see some snow through the
Ranges out of this outbreak👍 Definitely some
Really cold air going to pass those s.a today and
Early evening ❄️
Is mt Barker a chance for snow?

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#1468650 - 11/08/2018 10:41 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Lofty is about 711m from memory. Aws is high 600s.

Mt Barker very unlikely. . Snow flurry (not settling) levels probably around 650-700m this arvo depending mostly on precip.
Lighter short lived showers will have a higher snow level.

24.8mm overnight in Clare, looks like we might have topped the state. (oop nevermind, cape Jaffa 30mm) Even managed to get a trickle going in the creeks. A bloody good rainband for the mid north region with even the upper north scoring some falls, very needed.
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#1468652 - 11/08/2018 11:21 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Just had graupel and sleet here at Mount Barker, was soft and mixed in with some harder hail.
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#1468656 - 11/08/2018 12:25 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
This coming line into lofty probably be the best of the day. almost certain to see snowfall with it and hail on leading edge.

certainly is impressively cold. had hail from a nothing shower here earlier. and two very light snow showers so far on lofty today based on reports
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#1468661 - 11/08/2018 16:44 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Had a report of light snow falling, presumably in that line, near the Mount Crawford AWS.

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#1468675 - 12/08/2018 00:15 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Someone has recorded a video of snow falling at Mount Lofty earlier this morning.

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#1468680 - 12/08/2018 11:04 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Another 11mm in my gauge.

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#1468690 - 12/08/2018 16:02 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
6.5mm since yesterday arvo, still having fairly frequent showers moving through but the sun is starting to get some bite...spring is close!

Makes it I think 65.8mm since this thread was opened...might actually make the average this month
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#1468696 - 12/08/2018 18:44 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: Markus]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Markus
the sun is starting to get some bite...spring is close!


My asparagii are asparagussing - happy about that!

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#1468701 - 12/08/2018 21:48 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
Saturday was interesting for the 10 minutes of the intense hail shower. Driving on Glynburn Rd when it hit, cars pulling over and the temperature dropping down to 4 degrees (or so my cars gauge was telling me.) 14mm out of the gauge this morning, so since this thread began I have a total of 78mm or 76mm for the month.

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#1468704 - 12/08/2018 23:11 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: parklife]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: parklife
Saturday was interesting for the 10 minutes of the intense hail shower. Driving on Glynburn Rd when it hit


About what time was that?

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#1468708 - 13/08/2018 00:13 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And a bit more pitter patter - nice.

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#1468711 - 13/08/2018 07:35 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Quite thick rain all the way from Mt Barker to Adelaide airport this morning, was surprised , but not really, how thick it was. In Adelaide it was the heaviest, lots of low level moisture about.
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#1468737 - 13/08/2018 19:47 Re: SA - Significant cold fronts - 31 July to ? [Re: betsuin]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
Originally Posted By: betsuin
Originally Posted By: parklife
Saturday was interesting for the 10 minutes of the intense hail shower. Driving on Glynburn Rd when it hit


About what time was that?


12:10pm give or take 5 minutes.

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