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#1467883 - 27/07/2018 09:53 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 421
Loc: Hobart
Snowline no lower than 700m on any day so far for the winter - dismal and quite unusual! Seems to me the best fall for the year ( for Mt. Wellington at least ) was at the start of April when it came down a bit lower and thicker.

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#1467903 - 27/07/2018 20:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Not looking like changing any time soon either!
Looking wet though.
More flooding up North to come as well.
Hydro dams full in a large percentage of the smaller lakes.
This will make for some larger floods.
Lake King William is 1.3m from full up 6m since the rain started in May and 6m up on the same time last year.
Will spill in August.

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#1467909 - 27/07/2018 21:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
Don't know, SAM is forecast to go -ve through August, so it should be a bit wetter + we should get more fronts from the deep south, if ever there was a chance this winter it'll come in the next few weeks you'd think.

In among the rain this week there is actually some cold air predicted, GFS has 850T's lower than -6 at times. Shame all the cold air is more or less dry + not all models like it. But could lead to some ripper frost if the wind dies out in between fronts (unusually GFS has forecast surface temps of -8 on Thursday morning on the plateau). 80-120mm forecast for up here over the next 10 days.

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#1467939 - 29/07/2018 06:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Morning all,
Wasn’t expecting rain this early, had to 1.2mm so far.
Was thinking it would start at 11am.
Should be some good flooding this week up around the North.
Hopefully Ben Lomond gets lots of snow.
Still not seeing low level snow falls.

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#1467954 - 29/07/2018 12:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
The backyard partially flooded with this mornings rain (24mm), big puddles and pools of water along the southern side of the yard. Some of the fruit trees and raspberries wont be enjoying it. The yard was a bit boggy before now, but the heavy rains this morning tipped it over, first time it's looked like that since 2016. After a brief break it's raining again.

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#1468026 - 31/07/2018 11:04 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
157.1mm for the month after another 12.4mm overnight. YTD now 494.3mm. Might go past 500mm if this front/trough that's bearing down on the west coast brings some more this afternoon. Pretty much exactly 100mm up on the YTD total compared to 2017 at the end of July.

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#1468051 - 31/07/2018 18:58 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Yes we had 75.4mm for the month and 589mm so far this year.
Ben Lomond has great snow.

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#1468293 - 04/08/2018 20:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Looking at maybe one more front left in what has been a Claytons Winter. Not particularly unexpected though as per the last 5 years dwindling cold fronts. Already starting to line up some consistent days of 16 and 17c in Hobart , so I'd say 20c won't to far away. Ayways nothing we can do about it , but I guess it's time to start putting bush fire plans in place in what is tipped to be a very warm dry Spring and Summer less than few weeks away.

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#1468296 - 04/08/2018 21:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 59
Heading down to Tassie from the 12th-16th, hoping to head up to the Lakes/Cradle Mountain area and catch some snow. What are my chances?

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#1468328 - 05/08/2018 17:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Very good.
May have to walk up a little higher but always drifts about.
Still plenty of snow to fall this winter early spring!

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#1468372 - 06/08/2018 10:39 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 947
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

Nothing out of the ordinary here for July. Wet, wet, wet! Maybe slightly above average rainfall, just going by how soggy everything is. Yet to go over obs for July to confirm this.

Temperatures seem to be warming sooner than normal here, even if ever so slightly. Particularly in the last week. Really haven't even had a decent frost yet.

Have been keenly watching models, hoping to see signs of potential low level snowfalls in the forecasts. I'm liking the chance of this happening around the middle of the month. Could even see some cold air push well up into NSW. Here's hoping.

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#1468426 - 07/08/2018 00:40 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Looks like we have a chance in Hobart already this Friday of 20 degrees , Thursday also warm. I love the enthusiasm for more snow down this way and even a low level event:)
I gave up waiting about a month ago , Spring Summer is calling us all.

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#1468510 - 08/08/2018 13:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
20 is well and truly within range for Friday. Current model forecasts already have it up around 18, but strong northerlies could easily push it into the low 20's.

There are 34 instances of Hobart reaching 20 before the end of August. 24.5 on the 26th/8/1977 is a warmest, the next warmest occurred the day before with 23.8 - so a very warm burst for late August in 1977. The most recent occurrence was 20.3 in 2012. On the 31st in 2006 it reached 23.

If it was to happen on Friday it would be the equal 4th earliest, it has twice reached 20 in July and it would be the 2nd earliest occurrence in August, the earliest was on the 5th and the next earliest was also on the 10th.

The month is already tracking as the 4th warmest August (max temps), be interesting to see how the rest of the month plays out with some colder changes sitting the the current model runs. Would be hard to beat the 1982 record of 15.7.


Edited by Snowies (08/08/2018 13:51)

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#1468522 - 08/08/2018 20:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
Easily the best snow forecast I've seen this winter, latest EC thinks up to 1 meter of new snow over the next 10 days and some widespread light falls. Mostly next week, so see how it holds.


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#1468703 - 12/08/2018 22:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Looks like I should have snow here next Sunday with a ripper frost Monday morning. -7.5 850temps.
Also very windy for Monday till Wednesday with 850 height averaging winds around 120kmhr at times.
Should see gust at sea level of 120kmhr Tuesday and Wednesday at times and very high tides!.

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#1468903 - 15/08/2018 19:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 58
What are people thinking re snow line sunday?
_________________________
Cradoc 110m asl

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#1468912 - 16/08/2018 06:23 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 421
Loc: Hobart
Good chance I reckon of a dusting in the higher suburbs overnight Sunday/into Monday

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#1468919 - 16/08/2018 09:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 947
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

46mm in the gauge this morning.
Daily rainfall obs for the week Fri-Thur were 3mm, 33mm, 21mm, 35mm, 53mm, 24mm and 46mm respectively.

215mm for the week. 342mm MTD.
August 2017 total rainfall was 369mm. Shouldnt have too much trouble beating that this month.

What a wild day here at home yesterday! House was shaking at times. Had >30kts/55km/h with much stronger squalls for about 12hours

Storm force winds, heavy rain, thunder and lightning with intense hailstorms.

The average of recorded wind gusts on nearby Mount Read, in the 13 hours to 1pm yesterday, was 60kts/110km/h.
With maximum gusts of 76kts/141km/h.

Maatsuyker Island maximum gusts of 88kts/164km/h
Mount Wellington maximum gusts of 68kts/126km/h

SF, Yep, it does look promising for the weekend. Fingers crossed smile

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#1468942 - 16/08/2018 15:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2184
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Hi Payshense,
Good to here from you again.
Yep wild day at home yesterday with 8.4mm then 18.6mm this morning.
The wind wasn’t that bad though.
Had 10cm of snow at my block at Great Lake and 5cm or less 50m down the hill where there was a distinct line on the hill where the snow was drier.
Up at Liawenee atm and there is about 8cm up here.

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#1468945 - 16/08/2018 16:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 195
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Geez 215mm for the week! Thats having a crack Payshense! shocked

Had 26.8mm for the week at Brighton, 18.6mm in the past couple days, had mean winds around 50-60 km/h wednesday morning, a few gusts to 90+ km/h and a peak gust of 102 km/h no damage which is always a positive!

Cloudy and gusty at home today, some early rain around 5am and windy late in the morning/lunchtime with gusts just under 70 km/h.

As has been mentioned about Sunday, thinking a few good flurries around Mt Nelson and those Southwesterly exposed areas could be the go, should get a good indication by tomorrow afternoon's model runs.

Should get some snow at yours come Sunday hey Stale Fish? Are you back home for the weekend? smile


Edited by BrightonBreeze (16/08/2018 16:21)
Edit Reason: further info

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