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#1468814 - 14/08/2018 19:51 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
I know its early but may as well get this underway considering we had our first fire of significance last weekend near Marlo in the states SE which was at Watch and Act Level and I like to have these threads as a bit of as a way to document the season and look back on.

Here is a photo from this fire today, concern is that it is burning in area's of peat which without heavy rain may cause issues later in the season when things really heat up.



Ref Delwp/FFM Gippsland
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#1468816 - 14/08/2018 19:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not good signs at all

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#1468825 - 14/08/2018 20:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
Burning well enough into the wind.

Controlled down wind?

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#1468959 - 16/08/2018 20:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Still have to see what Spring brings but for this time of year Victoria sits in the worst position for this time of year since 2008 which of course lead to Black Saturday

Quote:
Record-breaking low rainfall in parts of Victoria is forcing the Country Fire Authority (CFA) to bring forward the start of its bushfire season.

The agency has released its bushfire season outlook, and is warning Victorians to prepare for an extreme summer of fires.

For the first time, fire restrictions will be introduced in Gippsland as early as September.

CFA chief officer Steve Warrington said the season looked like it would be the worst in a decade.

"Our primary concern is Gippsland, the north-eastern parts of Victoria as well, the Otways and certainly along the Murray," he said.

"At the moment if we go on the current forecasts, and to some extent it's crystal balling, but the dams are down, the water content in the ground is quite low.

"Large parts of the state have been in a few years of drought now."

Conditions in parts of the state, including East Gippsland, are the worst firefighters have seen since Black Saturday when 173 people died in February 2009.

Fire season to 'start early, finish late'

"For the first time ever we'll introduce restrictions in Gippsland as early as September," he said.

"That will take us right through to potentially April next year, so start early, finish late.

"The conditions for this time of the year are really quite concerning for us, and that's unfortunately already being realised."

Fire authorities are expecting a severe or extreme fire season across much of the country this summer.

Mr Warrington warned that could leave Victoria unable to call on firefighters from interstate for help.

"Our ability to support each other is diminished," he said.

"This year we're planning as if Victorians are predominately going to have to look after ourselves, the support won't necessarily be there as we're used to.

"If it starts early and finishes late, it means fatigue issues for us ‚ÄĒ long campaign, lots of expectation."

Winter bushfires causing concern

About 140 firefighters have been battling a blaze burning at Cape Conran, in the state's east, since Saturday.

It is one of more than a dozen burn-offs that have escaped from private properties this month.

Victoria's Department of Environment Land Water and Planning incident controller Ben Rankin said the conditions were drier and more volatile than normal.

"This is most unusual to have fires run to this extent in winter," he said.

"The fuel and the countryside in East Gippsland at the moment is excessively dry."

Mr Rankin said the ground was drier now than it usually would be in summer.



Rainfall totals are at record lows in part of East Gippsland, and combined with the early fire season landholders are growing concerned.

Josh Puglisi's Cape Conran property is adjacent to the fire.

"We have a dam in our front yard and that was dug probably 12 years ago and it's been full every year," he said.

"This is the first year it's got virtually no water in it.

"We've got fire pumps on our dam, but we've got no water to pump.

"Everyone's talking about how dry it is, everybody from farmers to some old retired couples who live in this area."

The nearby Snowy River Campus School for Student Leadership is tucked away on a grass field surrounded by forest near Marlo.

Principal Robyn Francis said the school's fire equipment had been set up earlier than ever before.

The school has five water tanks for firefighting, a backup generator, and a deluge system to spray water over the school buildings if a fire threatens.

"We usually have it in terms one and four, it's always up in those terms. This is the first time we've set it up in term three," Ms Francis said.


If we don't see much rain in Spring Victoria will be a tinder box in a couple of months time
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#1468960 - 16/08/2018 21:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
petethemoskeet Offline
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The whole eastern seaboard will be a tinder box.Could be unprecedented.

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#1469364 - 23/08/2018 12:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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"The Chief Officer has approved the declaration of the Fire Danger Period for District 11 to commence 0100hrs on Monday 10th September"

D11 is East Gippsland - this marks the earliest fire danger period declaration for any reason in state history.
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#1469372 - 23/08/2018 18:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Maffra is D9 Logansi?

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#1469378 - 23/08/2018 19:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic


I would assume 10, wouldn't be surprised if 9 and 10 are planned at the same time, although at this time 11 is the only one I have seen confirmation for - this was a message sent to d11 members
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#1469405 - 24/08/2018 10:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep 10. But I heard this morning that Wellington Shire Council might declare restrictions for this area anyhow.

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#1469415 - 24/08/2018 15:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Heard 10 & 11 to be declared 10th Sept.

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#1469455 - 25/08/2018 12:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Yep, confirmed today by CFA

This marks the first time any district has been declared earlier than October 1st - which was a record set last year
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#1470769 - 15/09/2018 11:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Rapidly developing fire at Bonang in plantation, request for support and as many trucks as possible, 2 forestry fire fighters injured and going to hospital. Fire can be seen on latest bom satellite - meanwhile it might be snowing up there later today.


Edited by logansi (15/09/2018 11:57)
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#1470772 - 15/09/2018 12:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Thatís rediculous logansi lol
And your right later on today it could be snowing
On top of the fire??🤔🤔🤷‍♂️

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#1470778 - 15/09/2018 13:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah, aircraft being responded now but are coming from Ballarat so 3 hours aways
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#1470781 - 15/09/2018 13:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Bendoc, Bonang, Cabanandra, Dellicknora, Tubbut.

There is a bushfire at Tubbut that is not yet under control.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire preading.
Enact your fire plan. The current weather conditions are making the fire difficult to control. Conditions may change and get worse very quickly.
What you should do:
If you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
If travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Current weather conditions may bring down branches and trees
Impacts in your area:
Bushfires can spread quickly and are extremely dangerous.
Trees can fall across roads and cause dangerous driving conditions.
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#1471850 - 02/10/2018 16:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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The First Grassland Curing Map for the year.

The Mallee seems to have a head start on drying out

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#1471896 - 02/10/2018 22:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Spectreman Offline
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Registered: 15/09/2018
Posts: 6
Loc: Melbourne
Hi guys.
Newcomer to this forum, very interesting.
I believe this Summer will be kind of bad for fires in various parts of the state.
Looks like parts of Gippsland are drying out quickly too.
Have read in this seasons bushfire hazard Report by CRC that a lot of Gippsland & the Eastern part of Melbourne are the most at risk of fires this summer.
Has certainly been very dry lately alright.

I have had a keen interest in weather events for a long time, and also enjoy monitoring the emergency services, radio & EAS.
Cheers..

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#1471913 - 03/10/2018 07:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Loc: Sale, VIC
Welcome Spectreman, pls join in smile

Certainly dry with bushfires burning somewhat well and
quite unseasonably given we are just coming out of Winter.

One fire 41km N/W of Dargo has attracted seven response
vehicles, it's being taken seriously!

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#1474788 - 28/10/2018 13:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Bit of a fire going up at Talbotville in the ranges, aircraft which were doing a training day at Latrobe have been deployed for a bit of real world action.
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#1474894 - 29/10/2018 20:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Grass really starting to dry out now with most regions seeing some stage of curing, heat this week likely to result in significant curing this week

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#1474950 - 31/10/2018 14:46 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
TFB for the mallee tomorrow
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#1474970 - 31/10/2018 18:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Here we go.....

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#1474982 - 31/10/2018 20:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very Hot air-mass and dry winds until isolated thundery showers Friday and Monday.

Lighting is worry if Virga Thunderstorms case grass-fires.

Then Melbourne Cup isolated showers with clean SW winds.


Edited by chasers addict (31/10/2018 21:01)

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#1474987 - 31/10/2018 22:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Number of aircraft online for the next few days.

Also Night Aerial firefighting training is occurring tonight, this year we will see 2 aircraft able to work at night on direct attack for the first time anywhere in the world.

These aircraft will be based at Mangalore and Colac and will only fight fires which have been worked on during the day giving crews time to survey the area in daylight first.


Edited by logansi (31/10/2018 22:49)
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#1475132 - 02/11/2018 15:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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2 Fires in the Murray Sunset national park going well 8 aircraft responding
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#1475176 - 02/11/2018 20:54 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Little update, now 3 fires in the Murray Sunset

Mallee 51 - MSNP - Pheenys Track - 391ha
Mallee 50 - MSNP - Millewa South - 817ha
Mallee 52 - MSNP - Minook Wild - 5ha

All are listed as not yet under control, interestingly they were started by lightning around 7am but didn't flare until round 2pm, they had aircaft check the area in the morning but nothing was found at that time.

Currently 6 aircraft are attached to these fires with 2 more to head up tomorrow.


Edited by logansi (02/11/2018 20:55)
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#1475191 - 02/11/2018 23:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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That will give the PFFs some overtime this week
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1476070 - 18/11/2018 16:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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This Watch & Act message is for Carlisle River.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice message issued at 3:00pm.
There is a grassfire at Carlisle River that is not yet under control.
This grassfire is difficult to access and emergency services are on scene
Staying close to a building you can shelter in is the safest option as conditions can change suddenly.
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#1477299 - 27/11/2018 19:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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seeing as our fire season is having some time off, QLD has 3 Emergency warnings at the moment and 3 Advice Warnings. I don't know if we have already sent crews up already but my station has been asking for a show of hands should we be called upon.

I also saw the 737 fire bomber had filed for a flight plan to Rocky a day or two ago. I hope it has stayed up there.
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#1477478 - 28/11/2018 09:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Yep not good up there, think we are sending up from crews tomorrow.

Large increase in state airfleet today with most of the fleet active from today including the skycrane based out of Essendon.

Also big training day in Colac today for aircraft so if anyone is in the area you may see fire bombers and choppers flying around.


Edited by logansi (28/11/2018 09:41)
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#1478035 - 01/12/2018 18:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Skycrane heading down the Forrest drive Mount Martha, first deployment for the crane this year. Fire is small but inaccessible currently make tankers 10 slip-ons 5
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#1478067 - 02/12/2018 07:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
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Loc: Sale, VIC
A GC of interest to you Logansi, on the eastern end of the SNOWY RANGE east/west airstrip (N of Licola for those not familiar with area)

Some of the strikes currently to the east of rainfall will hopefully get mopped up as the front travels to the east, fingers crossed on that one!

3mm in Sale and steady rain atm.

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#1478119 - 02/12/2018 11:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Looks like most areas probably got enough rain to prevent anything from starting, aircraft are up checking the Mallee area at the moment, recce planned for Gippsland/North East this afternoon, highest risk of anything prop in the NE as totals look less up that way.

Always the risk something will pop up over the next few days as it warms up and drys up with a tree still smouldering.
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#1478629 - 06/12/2018 15:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Tomorrow, Fri, 7 Dec 2018 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban in the Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country district(s) of Victoria.


Meanwhile escalating fire at Devonshire Rd, Buninyong request for make tankers 10, 2 Strike Teams, Emergency Warning and Air support more than 1

Update: Major Spotting up to 1km, make strike teams atleast 4, numerous homes under threat, request large air tankers.

This Emergency Warning is being issued for Buninyong, Scotsburn.

There is a bushfire in the vicinity of Devonshire Rd and Nashs Rd Buninyong that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Brennans Rd.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
This message is for you if you are at south of Devonshire Rd.


Edited by logansi (06/12/2018 15:09)
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#1478630 - 06/12/2018 15:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Visible on Radar

Now Make Strike teams 6



Edited by logansi (06/12/2018 15:22)
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#1478634 - 06/12/2018 15:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Now Make Strike Teams 10 on above, thats 50 trucks.
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#1478636 - 06/12/2018 15:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bit early in the season for fire like this!! Not good
Logansi. Be a fair nor wester blowing out that way to??
One would expect it to be worse conditions Tommoz as
Well?

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#1478637 - 06/12/2018 15:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
There is now 2 emergency warnings and a watch and
Act out for south of the fire!! Fire apparently spotting 2k
In front of itself

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#1478639 - 06/12/2018 16:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Out-of-control bushfire burning near Ballarat, Victoria.

ANSWER is how did fire started by careless people.

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#1478641 - 06/12/2018 16:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Fire near Ballarat really visible via radar
Image.

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#1478642 - 06/12/2018 17:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Bushed areas seem very dry from areas i've seen across the west both flying and on the ground. Its been a dry year and practically no major rain fall events, say 30mm+ which have the biggest impact of how 'wet' the bush is.

Awesome to see our Large Air Tankers in action









Edited by logansi (06/12/2018 17:11)
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#1478657 - 06/12/2018 18:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Talk that Night fire fightning helicopter will be deployed to this fire, even if not needed fire will be used for training. May well be the first fire in Australia to fire bombed at night.
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#1478712 - 07/12/2018 11:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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BULBAN RD LITTLE RIVER just went make tankers 20 I think, only just got the radio up but looks like 20 paged.

Further, fire has jumped BULBAN RD LITTLE RIVER, make tankrs 40 at least, fire running very hard toward little river township, request emergency warning and text to people in area, spotting and request multiple aircraft including large air tankers if available.

Fire to impact Geelong line, request line closure.


Edited by logansi (07/12/2018 11:56)
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#1478714 - 07/12/2018 12:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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It is strongly recommended that you Evacuate Now if you are located in Mambourin, Manor.

There is a bushfire at LittleRiver that is not yet under control
This fire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Manor Road.
If you are located in Mambourin or Manor you should evacuate now.
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#1478719 - 07/12/2018 13:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Why, fires had to be on Hot Day seem odd than any other day. I am sick of media don't say how and why fires started.

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#1478723 - 07/12/2018 14:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Why, fires had to be on Hot Day seem odd than any other day. I am sick of media don't say how and why fires started.


Being treated as suspicious

Little River fire downgraded to Watch and Act

This Watch & Act message is for Mambourin, Manor.

There is a grassfire at LittleRiver that is not yet under control.
Firefighters have been able to stop the spread of the fire, but the fire remains active within fire boundaries
This Watch and Act replaces the previous evacuation notice.





Fire is well over 1000ha

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#1478724 - 07/12/2018 15:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Just had a listen to the scanner archive for the start of the fire in little river, original fire involved 3 separate fires which joined, Little River tanker was on scene within 8 mins of the 000 call requesting 40 tankers and fire was already 800m long on multiple fronts. Fire had moved from Kirks Bridge Road, crossed Edgars road and was about to cross Bulbans Rd.

Also quite an extrodany call from Little River Captain, sounds like they almost had it held at Bulbans Rd radio but in the middle of a road call they discovered it had jumped the road behind them, knew they had lost it at that point.


Edited by logansi (07/12/2018 15:13)
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#1478824 - 08/12/2018 17:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Numerous fires starting North of Bairnsdale and twds Orbost and Cann River, large amount of lightning in area, aircraft up working multiple fires and others doing recce's. 8 Fires at current count.
The is some rain with these storms (7mm at Orbost) but lightning is occurring outside the rain core.


Edited by logansi (08/12/2018 17:38)
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#1478848 - 08/12/2018 20:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
First time i've seen a district wide warning:

This message is being issued for East Gippsland East of the Snowy River.

There has been a band of lightening move across East Gippsland and a number of bushfires have been ignited. Individual messages are not being created due to the number of reports.
Firefighters are currently responding and dealing with each report.
Smoke may be visible from nearby communities and roads.
There is no immediate threat to the community and no action is required.
This message was issued



Now 16 separate fires
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1478894 - 09/12/2018 08:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
Certainly a good backstop with the forecast
looking wet into next week.

A quick squiz at the BOM forecast for next week
@ Buchan, indicates plenty of overcast and showery
although 31C Wed. is a bit hot.

Low wind speed also seemed to be the trend at this
stage, hoping all goes OK before some decent rain
assists.

Similiar f'cast for Combienbar although both areas
have further thunderstorm activity Thur/Fri/Sat.




Edited by samboz (09/12/2018 08:57)

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#1482950 - 28/12/2018 15:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
ARARAT-MOYSTON RD MOYSTON make tankers 20 now and requesting more aircraft


Edited by logansi (28/12/2018 15:22)
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#1482956 - 28/12/2018 15:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like everybody behaving no bad bush-fires so far this week good to hear for Victoria.

So wait hear how ARARAT-MOYSTON RD MOYSTON started by accident or fire bug.


Edited by chasers addict (28/12/2018 15:29)

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#1482957 - 28/12/2018 15:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Original call for Moyston fire was a hay shed fire
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#1483724 - 02/01/2019 16:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
State wide TFB for Friday
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#1483846 - 03/01/2019 14:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Though the FDIs forecast for tomorrow are not at the upper end of the scale for Central and W&SW Gippsland, the Severe Weather Warning for the dry wind change means (particularly if a fire is running at the time) a challenging period late afternoon and evening.

"A strong cold front will cross the State Friday expected to reach Melbourne around 4pm.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected with and immediately following the cool change Friday afternoon across parts of the Central and West and South Gippsland Districts.

Winds are expected to ease around 2 hours following the passage of the front.

Locations which may be affected include Geelong, Melbourne, Bacchus Marsh, Morwell, Traralgon and Sale."

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#1483900 - 03/01/2019 18:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I see BOM now going for 43C at Sale tomorrow.

For Gippsland, the thundery(?) change looks to be circa 6-8pm going by 750RH & 300TotalTotal charts.

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#1483912 - 03/01/2019 19:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I am shocked see my town get 45c tomorrow, feels like broken records to some towns of Victoria.

Please no fires tmw.

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#1483915 - 03/01/2019 19:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Some massive FDI's out there tomorrow, reaching to the 100s in some areas of the Mallee and Wimmera, some places will have their highest ratings since Feb 9 2014.



Only thing stopping higher is most areas still haven't recovered fully from the rain mid December with some moisture still present in heavy fuels, tomorrow will significantly change that going forward.

Also possible storms tomorrow through central/eastern areas

Quote:
Isolated very high-based thunderstorms a risk tomorrow afternoon with the passage of a wind change. Damaging winds are a possibility with any storms that do develop. A severe weather warning is current for West and South Gippsland and Central forecast districts for damaging winds following the cool change. If any significant fires develop tomorrow then there is also a risk of thunderstorms forming over the top of those fires.




Edited by logansi (03/01/2019 19:20)
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#1483921 - 03/01/2019 20:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Mhmm donít want the above senario logansi!
High base storms

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#1483966 - 04/01/2019 10:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
1 start from that cell last night near Goongerah, doesn't seem to be doing to much right now 2 fixed wing bombers working on it.

Large parts of the state already at Severe FDI

Storm forecast expanded slightly

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible on/west of the frontal passage this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are a risk in the indicated area from mid to late afternoon, particularly through south central and southeast Victoria, as even winds away from storms are expected to be squally with the passage of the front (Severe Weather Warning current for parts of Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland districts). If fires are ignited across the State, conditions are favourable for storms developing over these fires (pyrocumulonimbus).

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#1483978 - 04/01/2019 12:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely either drops or Virga and hope lighting is cloud to cloud to be safe.


emergency.vic.gov MAP at 12pm looks good no bad fires.


Edited by chasers addict (04/01/2019 12:13)

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#1483987 - 04/01/2019 12:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
MITCHELLS RD/MERTON VALE RD ROSEDALE first going fire of the day, make tankers 10, smoke showing from multiple fire towers, aircraft requested and responding.
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#1483990 - 04/01/2019 13:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Got a good view of that Rosedale fire logansi
From my back porch!
Sheís up and going can see the plume of smoke.

I know that area well itís very dry and blows
Hard out that way. It will be heading straight
For plantations

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#1483991 - 04/01/2019 13:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Already 40c up at my place

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#1483996 - 04/01/2019 13:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
New fires on the cfa app south east of the main
Rosedale fire! Possibly starting to spot ahead ?

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#1483997 - 04/01/2019 13:51 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Skycrane, large air tankers and fire scanning aircraft now deployed to Rosedale, make a total of 11 aircraft
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#1483998 - 04/01/2019 13:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This ainít looking good for that area in the south
East! Fires popping up everywhere

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#1484001 - 04/01/2019 14:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Rosedale fire looks to have tripled in
Size going off the plume of smoke

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#1484002 - 04/01/2019 14:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Darriman, Giffard West, Gormandale, Stradbroke, Stradbroke West, Willung, Willung South.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice message issued at 13:29 today.
There is a bushfire at 6.3Km S Rosedale that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Stradbroke West.
Firefighters have been able to stop the spread of the fire. Staying close to a building you can shelter in is the safest option as conditions can change suddenly.
_________________________
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#1484006 - 04/01/2019 14:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The Watch and Act has been changed to read "have been UNABLE to stop the spread of the fire"

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#1484007 - 04/01/2019 14:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep I picked that up to Tb

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#1484008 - 04/01/2019 14:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No stopping this one itís burning hot. Can
See massive plume now

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#1484010 - 04/01/2019 14:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Numerous aircraft in the area

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#1484012 - 04/01/2019 15:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Via ABC

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#1484013 - 04/01/2019 15:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep sheís a fair fire out there and will probably
Get hit hard when the change comes through

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#1484014 - 04/01/2019 15:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, if the E - NE boundary is not secure on wind change (which seems likely) it will go towards Sth Gippsland Hwy - plantations, farms, semi-rural and Longford gas plant.

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#1484015 - 04/01/2019 15:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like itís jumped into the holey plains
Park

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#1484019 - 04/01/2019 16:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Something big just flew overhead on route
To Rosedale fire, which is going really hard
Through the holey plains

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#1484023 - 04/01/2019 16:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Due to cyrocumulonimbus development most aircraft have been grounded
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#1484024 - 04/01/2019 16:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
CBD in Melbourne just dropped 20 degrees in abut 20 minutes!
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1484025 - 04/01/2019 16:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep logansi u can see that cumulo build
Up. Probably start making its own weather

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#1484026 - 04/01/2019 16:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom radar really showing the fire intensify

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#1484027 - 04/01/2019 16:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Quadruple that abc photo now. The Rosedale sth fire is huge. Pyrocumulus looking like black saturday did from the Maffra perspective. Will be a terrible few hours when the change hits.

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#1484028 - 04/01/2019 16:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah not going to be good on the change, due around 6pm


Strathbogie fire also developing


This Watch & Act message is for Strathbogie.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice issued at 4:20pm.
There is a grassfire at Strathbogie that is not yet under control.
This grassfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction away from Kippings Road, south of Coach Road towards Shorts Road.
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#1484036 - 04/01/2019 17:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Lightning showing up from a small cell on the wind change near Kyneton now


Edited by logansi (04/01/2019 17:20)
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#1484038 - 04/01/2019 17:23 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for all residents south of Holey Plains State park and north of Thirteen Mile Road in the Stradbroke West, Willung, Willung South areas.

Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it has now crossed Chessum Road and is moving towards Gormandale-Stradbroke Road near Taylors Lane and Holands Road.

This fire is threatening homes and lives.

There is a bushfire at 6.3Km South of Rosedale that is not yet under control.

The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Stradbroke West
_________________________
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#1484042 - 04/01/2019 17:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep youíd think this wind change will
Have a massive impact on the fire, hence
The emergency warning!
Erratic wind and spotting

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#1484044 - 04/01/2019 17:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Notice on the latest fire area map update
That the fire has spotted out to the south
East of itself

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#1484045 - 04/01/2019 17:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wind change coming through right
Now here

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#1484046 - 04/01/2019 17:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Current map for future reference




Massive Aerial deployment statewide right now

ROSEDALE - WEST BOUNDARY TRACK STH 12 Aircraft inc Large Air Tankers and 1 Skycrane

STRATHBOGIE 9 Aircraft inc NSW large Air Tanker and 1 Skycrane

KALKEE 5 Aircraft

Goongerah 3 Aircraft
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#1484047 - 04/01/2019 17:54 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
How strong Dooga? Consistent? Gusty?

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#1484051 - 04/01/2019 18:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not as strong as I thought it might be Tb.
But having said that itís still fairly gusty and consistent
Strong wind.

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#1484052 - 04/01/2019 18:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Logansi- are the aircraft still grounded
On the Rosedale fire?

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#1484053 - 04/01/2019 18:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Logansi- are the aircraft still grounded
On the Rosedale fire?


no sorry they were up about 45 mins after my post
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#1484054 - 04/01/2019 18:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like the a little lightning starting
To come out of its own cumulonimbus

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#1484056 - 04/01/2019 18:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Not as strong as I thought it might be Tb.
But having said that itís still fairly gusty and consistent
Strong wind.


Thanks Dooga.

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#1484057 - 04/01/2019 18:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
that lightning is from a separate cell really hope its wet
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#1484060 - 04/01/2019 18:31 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
There is lightning within the smoke plume of the Rosedale fire. Cgs also from storm to fire's SW.

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#1484064 - 04/01/2019 18:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah lot now, Wind Change impacting fire now, helicopters grounded again fixed wing aircraft still up
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#1484066 - 04/01/2019 18:54 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This is what the pyrocumulus looked like from Maffra Golf Club at 4pm:



.....looks just like it did on Black Saturday from this perspective.

Currently remains at 43C here with steady NW'ly, heard there is 11 aircraft on the Stradbroke fire (its burning where trucks cant get to).

Next few hours with the change immenent will keep the alerts going right through to midnight if the black Sat experience is repeated. Good luck to all farmers out in that region.

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#1484070 - 04/01/2019 19:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Night time firefighting chopper is enroute from Ballarat from the Rosedale fire.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1484073 - 04/01/2019 19:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dry change has arrived here. Normal typical change winds.

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#1484082 - 04/01/2019 19:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Noticed the intensity of the fire plume has increased as you'd expect with the dry SW'ly change over the past 30 mins:



.....but nice to see that the lesser than possible intensity of the change has allowed the CFA to ease back the fire threat for those NE of the fire line.

....those big planes obviously do a fantastic job in quelling the north edge of the burn line - especially given (my understanding only), that the late afternoon fire advance was in areas not conducive to truck based fire fighting.


Edited by Petros (04/01/2019 19:57)

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#1484084 - 04/01/2019 20:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Listening to concerning reports on ABC about the causes of today's "other than Rosedale fire starts" .....anyone hear what started this one????

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#1484085 - 04/01/2019 20:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just had a shower of rain, which has dampened
And cooled everything down.
Just enough to wet the ground

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#1484086 - 04/01/2019 20:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros
Listening to concerning reports on ABC about the causes of today's "other than Rosedale fire starts" .....anyone hear what started this one????


Herald Sun reporting it as suspicious i believe. Fire investigators won't have been in yet so i'd doubt its confirm just more that there isn't any other obvious cause.

The Strathbogie fire seemed to have started as a Hay Shed fire.


Also about the work the large air tankers did, based on tracking it seemed from the very beginning they and 2 small bombers focused on the NE flank, with the aim to keep that fire activity to as little as possible while the choppers worked on the head of the fire. This fire is almost a text book example of what we have the big bombers for.

Honestly considering the length of time this fire had to run SE'ly and the smoke cloud visible i'm surprised it didn't go way further, seems there wasn't much considerable spotting.


Edited by logansi (04/01/2019 20:39)
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#1484089 - 04/01/2019 20:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: logansi
Night time firefighting chopper is enroute from Ballarat from the Rosedale fire.


They have been chomping at the bit to use this toy. I think it might get a good run tonight. Have they done any night drops yet?
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1484090 - 04/01/2019 20:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: logansi
Night time firefighting chopper is enroute from Ballarat from the Rosedale fire.


They have been chomping at the bit to use this toy. I think it might get a good run tonight. Have they done any night drops yet?


Not really, they went down to the Little River fire but from all reports it was more of an exercise/practice as by that time crews were only blacking out. They are over the Rosedale fire now.
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#1484091 - 04/01/2019 20:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: logansi
Originally Posted By: Petros
Listening to concerning reports on ABC about the causes of today's "other than Rosedale fire starts" .....anyone hear what started this one????


Herald Sun reporting it as suspicious i believe. Fire investigators won't have been in yet so i'd doubt its confirm just more that there isn't any other obvious cause.

The Strathbogie fire seemed to have started as a Hay Shed fire.


Also about the work the large air tankers did, based on tracking it seemed from the very beginning they and 2 small bombers focused on the NE flank, with the aim to keep that fire activity to as little as possible while the choppers worked on the head of the fire. This fire is almost a text book example of what we have the big bombers for.

Honestly considering the length of time this fire had to run SE'ly and the smoke cloud visible i'm surprised it didn't go way further, seems there wasn't much considerable spotting.


From what I saw from Maffra, ....those aircraft did an amazing job!

We are very lucky to live in a fire prone region such as Victoria, WITH such expert and (proven, and re-proven) excellent fire suppression response.

Proud of all of our firey's!

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#1484092 - 04/01/2019 20:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Yep, as I pilot myself i'm always amazed at the skills of our firefighting pilots

This gives you an idea of the work they were doing on that flank


Photo Herald Sun


Edited by logansi (04/01/2019 20:55)
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#1484095 - 04/01/2019 21:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Wish I had seen that skill display, but also wish I don't have to!

Well done again you blokes, Logansi, your posts are very much appreciated by us all.


Edited by Petros (04/01/2019 21:12)

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#1484102 - 04/01/2019 21:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Back to Emergency

This Emergency Warning is being issued for residents north of the Rosedale-Longford Road and south of the Princes Highway in the areas of Fulham, Kilmany, Kilmany South, Pearsondale.

There is a bushfire 6.3Km South of Rosedale that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a north-easterly direction towards the Latrobe River and the Princes Highway.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.
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#1484103 - 04/01/2019 21:48 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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This Emergency Warning is being issued for residents north of the Rosedale-Longford Road and south of the Princes Highway in the areas of Fulham, Kilmany, Kilmany South, Pearsondale.

There is a bushfire 6.3Km South of Rosedale that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a north-easterly direction towards the Latrobe River and the Princes Highway.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.
The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.

_________________________________________________________

Suprized to see this ... suggests (though of course I'm not in a position to say) that control has been lost of the northern flank under strong wind.



Edited by ThunderBob (04/01/2019 21:49)

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#1484105 - 04/01/2019 21:51 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Bet ya too it lol - North East flank never was undercontrol but they seemed confident before that they would keep it in the forest and plantations south of Rosedale-Longford Road.
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#1484109 - 04/01/2019 22:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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That's cool Logansi!

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#1484110 - 04/01/2019 22:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Cool change has made conditions nice in Maffra.


.....but think of the folk near this in Stradbroke SSE of Rosedale:



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#1484111 - 04/01/2019 22:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: ThunderBob


_________________________________________________________

Suprized to see this ... suggests (though of course I'm not in a position to say) that control has been lost of the northern flank under strong wind.



From the Maffra perspective TB, the change is a managable one (but I have no fire experience). Reckon its a big fire, but in plantations now, ....not expected to impact personal property???

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#1484113 - 04/01/2019 22:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Originally Posted By: logansi
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: logansi
Night time firefighting chopper is enroute from Ballarat from the Rosedale fire.


They have been chomping at the bit to use this toy. I think it might get a good run tonight. Have they done any night drops yet?


Not really, they went down to the Little River fire but from all reports it was more of an exercise/practice as by that time crews were only blacking out. They are over the Rosedale fire now.


They were activated for little river but weren't used.... Fire was pretty much out before dark so they were sent home
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#1484115 - 04/01/2019 22:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Just paged out

GRASS FIRE JUMPED ROAD 1519 ROSEDALE-LONGFORD RD ROSEDALE
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#1484117 - 04/01/2019 22:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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I can't believe the pilots fly so low with such big aircraft..... amazes me! Some good videos starting to surface on social media of the LATs at work
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#1484118 - 04/01/2019 22:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Originally Posted By: logansi
Just paged out

GRASS FIRE JUMPED ROAD 1519 ROSEDALE-LONGFORD RD ROSEDALE


It's certainly moving fast!

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#1484119 - 04/01/2019 22:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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New fire map shows massive NE run,

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#1484120 - 04/01/2019 22:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Fine ash falling very thickly here.

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#1484123 - 04/01/2019 22:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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More pagers

RESPOND TO FULHAM PRISON FOR ASSET PROTECTION
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#1484125 - 04/01/2019 22:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Broken map fixed




Fire size now almost 9000ha, was 1500 around 6pm. Has now run further in the NE direction since the wind change that during the initial SE run this afternoon.


Edited by logansi (04/01/2019 22:51)
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#1484127 - 04/01/2019 22:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Considering need to protect prison implies fire has or is expected to cross river flats and get into fairly densely settled rural areas.

It is a massive increase in fire area.

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#1484133 - 04/01/2019 23:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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West Victoria CFA watch long Thunderstorm line firing up lighting from between Ouyen to Geelong radar at 11.08pm.

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#1484135 - 04/01/2019 23:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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How awesome to be going to be while our night time choppers are still up!

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#1484166 - 05/01/2019 11:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Reports this morning that 2 FFMV units and a Dozer will destroyed on the wind change and a number of CFA crews involved in burn overs, sure came through with some force. Also seeing some discussion about possible impact that the storm cell which passed to the south.
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#1484168 - 05/01/2019 11:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Wow Logansi, change wasnt that impressive here at Maffra, must have been hectic out on the fire ground then.

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#1484182 - 05/01/2019 12:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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I wonder if the fire itself made the wind change worse by drawing higher level winds into the fire.

Its really amazing the run it made during the change, based on the map between the initial ignition and the wind change it ran about 5km - about 7 hours in 43c heat with single digit humidity. While after the change between about 730 and 10 it ran almost 8km despite the massive drop in humidity and temperature, really shows the impact wind and the existing heat of the fire has.
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#1484187 - 05/01/2019 13:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
KevD Offline
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Just amazing to be honest that any crews were left anywhere near the flank with the change due to come though. I thought weíd moved beyond those days. Everything yesterday was pretty much on the mark for what had been forecast, including risk of storms. So why have crews there at that time. We know this stuff.

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#1484218 - 05/01/2019 15:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Yeah I agree with all the above!
Really something else how much that fire
Grew in size once that change pushed through!!

Hopefully they can get it all under control
Before the end of next week

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#1484236 - 05/01/2019 16:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Couple of overhead photos from yesterday

Top 3 from after the wind change





https://twitter.com/CFASouthEastACO/status/1081407809659367424


Edited by logansi (05/01/2019 16:46)
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#1484257 - 05/01/2019 17:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Thanks Logansi. Heard it was very smokey in Bairnsdale plus quite rainy this morning. Hope some rain made it up to your neck of the woods Thunderbob.

Nobody around here has heard how the Rosedale fire got started.

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#1484293 - 05/01/2019 22:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Brilliant pics Loganski, thanks !

Watched the fire around 2100hrs last night (Friday 04/01/2019) from the Sth Gipp Highway. Completely black overhead with smoke and burnt veg. matter blocking 100% light. A small envelope of bright blue sky was visible distantly at low altitude to the S/W (approx).

What appeared to be a huge updraft, an inverted "V", was in plain view at the base of an extremely hot part of the fire and could have had some rotation occurring.

At about 7km it was a little hard to be certain.

Thru' binocs watched flames estimated 50 metres+, it was raging hot and burning out the immediate fuel like exploding petrol.
Have said 50m+, could have been double that, hard to tell at distance in poor light without reference points.

The wind was around to the South enough to push the fire front closer to the N/N/E than N/E and luckily gave the Longford area respite.

Fire had died down quite a bit by 2400hrs and was even more reduced by 0600hrs this morning (Sat 05/01/2019).

Kept an eye on the area today, didn't see much in the way of a freshening plume in the air, fire conditions seem to be "behaving" today.

An observation - the fire ignition point was ideally situated to utilise the forecast, $$ damage to the pine plantation must be huge !!



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#1484356 - 06/01/2019 14:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Rosedale fire causing more ongoing issues
With the advice message now upgraded to
Watch and act again! Looks like the south
East side of the fire causing problems!

From my place looking east there is still
Decent plumes of smoke billowing out of
The fire, it looks active.

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#1484372 - 06/01/2019 17:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Fire still burning intense with its own cumulonimbus
Cloud again development in the past 30min

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#1484373 - 06/01/2019 17:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Saturday looking like another potentially bad fire
Day with heat and windy change

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#1484382 - 06/01/2019 18:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Yep, smoke heading along our eastern skyline has dramatically increased this afternoon.

Those in Wurruk, Longford, Woodside and Yarram will be hoping this thing has been made safe before it goes back up to 38C on Saturday.

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#1484383 - 06/01/2019 19:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Tbh p, itís hard to see how there going to pull
It up before this weekend weather, specially how
It has burnt today? But gee I hope they can!
And no substantial rain that will aid the firefighters
In the near future

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#1484420 - 06/01/2019 22:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Night time air attack working the Rosedale fire once again. Really good opportunity for them to get some hours and really world experience in.
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#1484467 - 07/01/2019 13:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Rosedale fire has taken off again in what looks
To be in a different direction under an east
Nor east wind! Emergency warning now issued

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#1484469 - 07/01/2019 13:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Going to be troublesome tomorrow and over the weekend I think. Wont be surprised if this gets a few long haul stike teams on it by the end of the week
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#1484472 - 07/01/2019 13:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Yep dawman, the thing is the last two days havenít
Been that warm or windy down that way. Shows how
Dry it must be.
YeAh thereís a wind change later Tommoz I think?
Fire is just burning in which ever way the wind wants
To blow it

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#1484493 - 07/01/2019 17:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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1 possible advantage going forward is that the fire is effectively burning out of the bushed/reserve/plantations meaning by the end of the week there might not be much to burn. Risk could be if it spots or moves across grassland to the statbrook park to the south.



Edited by logansi (07/01/2019 17:06)
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#1484495 - 07/01/2019 17:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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I haven't commented past couple of days due to travelling etc. I think one of the factors (at least) in the fire's volatility is the really deep dryness. This is going to be an on-going issue these next couple of months.

Drove past the area this arvo - many, very widely dispersed, areas of activity.

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#1484565 - 07/01/2019 21:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Thanks Logansi, for all the contributions and knowledge you apply to this thread.

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#1484632 - 08/01/2019 13:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Yep, ta Logansi.

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#1484647 - 08/01/2019 14:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
LonnyDave Offline
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Is South East Australia set for a major heatwave next week?

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#1484675 - 08/01/2019 16:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: LonnyDave]
logansi Offline
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Rosedale fire is officially contained, lets hope it stays that way.

Originally Posted By: LonnyDave
Is South East Australia set for a major heatwave next week?


Yeah looking like it, starting Friday in the North - i'll start a thread soon.
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#1484681 - 08/01/2019 16:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Yeah thatís a good result the containment
Of the Rosedale fire, especially today there is
A fair amount of wind around.

It does look like a bit of a heatwave coming
Thatís for sure!!

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#1485067 - 11/01/2019 13:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Mallee and Northern Country have been upgraded to severe for tomorrow resulting in a TFB for bother those regions
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#1485390 - 14/01/2019 14:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Tomorrow, Tue, 15 Jan 2019 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban for the whole State of Victoria.

Latest Grass Curing

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#1485391 - 14/01/2019 14:48 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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TFB for whole State, Tuesday 15th - does this mean forecast being revised (esp for southern Vic)? cos atm FDI only rated as Very High.

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#1485392 - 14/01/2019 14:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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We posted at the same time Logansi - interested to see the 1600 forecast.

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#1485406 - 14/01/2019 18:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Can vouch (from the Maffra Golf Club perspective) that all grass around here that non-irrigated, is well and truly cured.

Any lighting on the N Gippsland region of the mountains this Thursday will be problematic fire-wise, ..possibly for many weeks to come.

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#1485488 - 15/01/2019 12:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Firey's swooped on a small electical grass fire at Boisdale not long ago, got it sorted.

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#1485493 - 15/01/2019 13:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Fire @KITCHENHAMS RD BENLOCH excelating, make tankers 10 and requesting air support, which is already on route from bendigo. Fire is in trees and going up a large number of trees, not possible to get to the front.
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#1485495 - 15/01/2019 14:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Fire re KITCHENHAMS RD BENLOCH fire, fire spotting in numerous areas, request as many aircraft as possible and Emergency warning, fire is over 1km long and 200m wide. Homes 500m away.

Fire from Kilmore Gap aviation weather camera



Edited by logansi (15/01/2019 14:05)
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#1485498 - 15/01/2019 14:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Not good logansi! Sounds like itís got
Up and going very quickly!

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#1485501 - 15/01/2019 14:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Fire is currently being held at Feeneys lane according to aircraft overhead
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#1485503 - 15/01/2019 14:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Hopefully they can hold it there

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#1485514 - 15/01/2019 15:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Doesnít look like they holted that fire
Logansi

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#1485515 - 15/01/2019 15:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
ABC has a live stream, hardly any active fire, still hasn't crossed Feeneys lane.

https://www.facebook.com/abccentralvictoria/videos/1705664096200095/


Edited by logansi (15/01/2019 15:37)
_________________________
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#1485516 - 15/01/2019 15:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Ah yep, I see now on cfa app that itís just been
Listed under control

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#1485519 - 15/01/2019 15:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Really great work by the aircraft, really good example of what responding aircraft at the same time as trucks is a great idea.
_________________________
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#1485530 - 15/01/2019 17:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lucky no Gusty winds up here just clam and Hot.

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#1485586 - 16/01/2019 09:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 45
Are latest model runs suggesting very bad conditions next Wednesday/Thursday?

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#1485593 - 16/01/2019 10:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah looks that way right now but take it with a grain of salt this far out. I do think that when ever this heat gets completely pushed out of the state we are likely to see a spike day.

Risk of storms on the ranges today so hopefully they are wet or don't occur.
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#1485636 - 16/01/2019 14:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Tomorrow has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban for Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country
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#1485660 - 16/01/2019 17:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
atleast 3 fires now from lightning in the eastern ranges, lightning continuing. Aircraft up.

4 Fires now, bombers, helitacks and reppel teams all airborne.


Edited by logansi (16/01/2019 17:16)
_________________________
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#1485664 - 16/01/2019 18:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
10 fires now, entire eastern half aircraft are committed.
_________________________
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#1485666 - 16/01/2019 18:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Following on from Logansi ... currently 5 of those starts are 10-15km to me north. Others scattered through eastern half of the Alps.

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#1485671 - 16/01/2019 18:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Still more coming in, also expect a couple more not yet on map based of locations of aircraft.
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#1485673 - 16/01/2019 18:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Large air tankers on the way to those fires near you TB, now known as DEPTFORD CLUSTER
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#1485674 - 16/01/2019 19:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Nice to have a name! I'll look out for the big boys and girls. Thanks.

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#1485675 - 16/01/2019 19:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Eastern rangers now lit up like a Xmas tree!!
Looks like most of those storms where dry ?
Dosent look good hopefully they can round
Them up before they cause trouble

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#1485692 - 16/01/2019 20:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Aircraft are all on the ground now other than a line scanning aircraft which will use IR to monitor the fires during the night/find any undetected ones from high altitude. Track here: https://www.flightradar24.com/FSCN125/1f322a1c

Currently 16 starts, 3 contained 13 Not Yet Under Control.

Further Risk of storms tomorrow and Friday going to really push crews/aircraft.


Edited by logansi (16/01/2019 20:30)
_________________________
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#1485694 - 16/01/2019 20:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Many thanks Logansi. Calm and humid here.

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#1485717 - 17/01/2019 08:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
All fires in the Deptford Cluster appear to be contained. Great effort! Small fires further into the Alps may be problematic.

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#1485731 - 17/01/2019 10:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
the 18z GFS run doesn't look crash hot on wednesday, pushes back the cool change about 6 hours (midnight instead of mid-day). Still a long way out though
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1485749 - 17/01/2019 12:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A lot of the fires that are up in those eastern
Rangers are starting to grow in size, which will
Probably only make it harder to slow them down

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#1485763 - 17/01/2019 14:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You're right Dooga. Logansi will have better intel but those fires around Crooked River are in difficult country and once they get a bit of size will be problematic. Much relieved here in Sarsfield re the Deptford Cluster! (Hoping it stays that way!)

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#1485783 - 17/01/2019 17:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Watch & act up for the Buller area.

From what I can see on the models
And bom forecast, there is very minimal
Rain out of this system coming through
Tommoz. Things are so dry out there now, itís
Going to be very difficult imo to round up these
Going fires through the alps without decent
Rain. Looks like this change is only brief
As we head back into mid/high 30ís next week

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#1485973 - 18/01/2019 22:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
I've been in Adelaide these last few days (where i'll be moving soon for work) so haven't had a lot of time to get info on these fires atm. However I can say that the response has been massive, around 26 Aircraft have been working on these fires, including the large air tankers and the night time aircraft which are being used on the Mt Buller fire.

There is also a significant number of fires over the boarder in NSW.

Could be a massive spike day/s coming next Thursday into Friday, looking like 40s almost state wide and strong to very strong winds on the change.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486013 - 19/01/2019 09:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1369
Loc: toowoomba
Good luck with your move.Adelaide is a nice place.Yeah next week does have the potential to be bad for fires especially fri.

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#1486080 - 19/01/2019 21:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
All bar the Nunnett River - Timbarra fire are now contained, which is the far larger of all the fires. This fire is in very inaccessible, steep terrain so a real risk of burning for sometime. Was visible on satellite today as seen below on what is the coolest day in the forecast.



Still a number of fires close to the boarder in NSW which are not yet contained.
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#1486125 - 20/01/2019 16:31 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Quick Gif of burn map for today starting with the last night scan to the latest



Edited by logansi (20/01/2019 16:31)
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#1486129 - 20/01/2019 17:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah could be possibly a problem fire that
One! It looks to be getting established and
Cranking up some what.

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#1486182 - 21/01/2019 00:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2358
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
I have a few comments to make on our fires we had here in November. We were not allowed back to our properties for 10 days. People down the road who had their house burnt out on the first day of fires were not told officially until 6 days later that their house had burnt despite it being on every news report.

My husband was told by officials at the very first meeting that no houses on our road had been lost which we knew was an outright lie.

A fella who my hubby knows was escorted from his property and told he would be arrested if he returned. Upon his return days later he found his house damaged. His security cameras showed 4 police officers trying to kick his roller door in and when they failed using their baton to smash his window to gain entry.

My neighbour who was home after the fire had passed through our properties and was extinguishing things that could still catch like my garden beds that were smouldering, the tree that was burnt at the base and still on fire so could have fallen onto our shed and house, feeding my animals that were still here as I couldn't very well load pigs up to take with me when I left was forced from his property with threat of arrest on about day 5. The police officers were unhappy with him that he insisted that HE would lock his house, sheds and property gate after they so kindly told him not to bother. He and his missus had previously had to sign documents saying they knew of the danger and would take responsibility for their own safety. So did the one legged man over the road and the 70 yo near deaf man up the road. Oddly, whilst the able bodied couple who may see any sheninigans in the area were forced out neither the one legged or old man were.

Friends who were evacuating by boat had placed their gun safe within it. A policeman who saw it demanded they return it to their house and rebolt it to the floor and wall. No offer of assistance though to either carry it or help place the bolts. They did however take the time to have a very thorough look around his property commenting on things he owned.

QFES posted a 'feel good' story about a crew picking up a piglet and taking it about 8 hours away from the area where it was 'happy eating and drinking and would live happily ever after on a property'. That is actually livestock theft and after many of us commented such they changed their post to 'until it could be returned to it's owner'. I have not heard of this livestock being returned.

We still do not know if the govt inspected every property for stock that needing tending as they said they were going to do. I do know that some people were informed that they had put animals down but no one has been told if their animals were, who made that decision, if so how were they disposed of?

Whilst I am very grateful to those who put in such good work on the fires and saved our house I am not at all happy with a lot of what was going on whilst we were locked out. There was a lot of lies told by officials and many locals feel that opportunity was taken to perform a search of each and every property for things that might interest certain government departments.

Sadly next time they want to 'evacuate' us they may have issues with finding people to evacuate.

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#1486258 - 21/01/2019 17:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Just a little bit of a state wide update from what I know, which isn't too much more than whats officially out there TBH.

The Nunnett River/Timbarra fire is obviously a main concern, while really good progress is being made by aircraft especially holding it south of the Nunnett River it is almost impossible to get any kind of earth break around the fire, much of the fire is burning in areas with slopes upto 50į making it impossible to get dozers in. This fire is tieing up a significant number of aircraft with 10 aircraft including both night time certified aircraft committed.


Crews continue to mop up the other lightning strike fires ignited last week, including a large number on both sides of the boarder north of Tubbut which have 4 Victorian aircraft committed.

2 x CFA strike teams are tonight being sent up to Kosciuszko NP fires in NSW NE of Corryong to assist in backburning opperations.

Further risk of lightning tomorrow and Wednesday in the east not sure of rainfall risk but unlikely to be anything significant except maybe in very isolated areas.

Thursday/Friday still looking like major spike days.
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Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486273 - 21/01/2019 19:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah logansi going to be a challenging week
For any fires that start thatís for sure!
Looked at the updated fire danger ratings
This arvo to find they have already got
Severe fdi for pretty much all of vic!
Wouldnít at all be surprised if we see some
Areas go into extreme or even code red by
Thursday.
Also the grass curing map dosent look to
Healthy for the state now.

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#1486301 - 22/01/2019 09:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking at Friday's cool change, seems to me that the strongest SW'ly winds will be up in the states NW, and eastwards along the Murray, all late arvo/into the evening.

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#1486324 - 22/01/2019 16:46 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Lightning has started more than 15 fires in state NE, storm is moving south. Aircraft up and searching. This storm has a wet core (10mm in Albury) but significant lightning outside the rainband.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486327 - 22/01/2019 17:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, Logansi, will be even more starts before it's done with.

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#1486335 - 22/01/2019 17:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Buchan, Buchan South, Gelantipy, Gillingall, Murrindal, Sunny Point, Timbarra, W Tree.

There is a bushfire at 10Km N Of Timbarra that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Timbarra.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire due to inaccessible terrain and extremely dry conditions.
There is a severe fire danger rating predicted for Friday 25 January 2019 that will see high temperatures and strong northerly winds.
Due to the predicted weather conditions and the difficulties faced in containing the fire, there is the strong potential for the fire to impact the affected areas listed.

Begin to enact your bushfire plan now if you have one in preparation for Friday.

________________________________________________________

This is a huge area (50km X 30km???) considered under threat on Friday. And, with no significant rain in prospect, it will remain big.

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#1486347 - 22/01/2019 19:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah Thursday/Friday are going to be very hard days Iíd
Suspect with the heat and wind predicted. Plenty of fires now going
In the north east sector of state, which u would think wonít
All be rounded up by the above days. Then any fresh starts to deal
With as well.
Resources will be stretched to the max u would think, with the current
Vic, tas and nsw fires going at present. Could potentially be a
Very trying period for fireyís

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#1486369 - 22/01/2019 22:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
From what I can remember/see on maps, this fire is N/W of the one that caused some consternation with campers back in about Sept. 2017.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1437095/Re_2017_18_Victorian_Bushfire_

At least this year it's heading toward a large fuel reduced area.

The 2017 thread serves as a reminder just how dry its been over the few years.

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#1486432 - 23/01/2019 13:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
^^Good point Sambox forgot about that one. Should definitely help.

The aerial attack on the Timbarra fire today is massive with 13 aircraft currently on the fire, 8 of which are helitacks. This includes 1 of the skycranes which has just left Moorabbin. This is half the states normal helitack availability although a number of extras have been brought online and a couple are on loan from NSW.

On top of this aircraft are also working on 2 new fires near Tubbut and on the 1 remaining fire in the NE from Yesterday (BULLIOH)
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Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486439 - 23/01/2019 14:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I checked out the briefing not too long ago.....might see a couple of places sneak up into the extreme FDI on Friday. Feeling sorry for anyone north of Cragieburn on thursday night...... places are going to be above 30C overnight. Also means that even if the firefighters are doing work it will still be a hot slog. (make aircons many!)
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1486449 - 23/01/2019 16:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Mallee and northern country now into
Extreme fdi.
Do we think any other districts will move into
The extreme category Tommoz?
Hearing the chance of dry lightning on
The change later Friday as well just to
Complicate things further

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#1486467 - 23/01/2019 18:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
High risk of dry lightning now on Friday especially in central and eastern areas.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486474 - 23/01/2019 18:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Spectreman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/09/2018
Posts: 6
Loc: Melbourne
Sure is looking bad for Friday.
Of course my work office is in one of the worst fire danger areas in Melbourne where serious fires have not occurred for years, will keep a close eye on my pager & radio on Friday.

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#1486478 - 23/01/2019 19:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Dry lightning with the actual wind change
Logansi?

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#1486489 - 23/01/2019 20:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Dry lightning with the actual wind change
Logansi?


Official forecast wording

"Possible thunderstorms central and eastern areas on and near the change - little to no associated rainfall"
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Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486494 - 23/01/2019 20:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks logansi.
Going to be a full on period really from Tommoz
Through to Friday night

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#1486628 - 24/01/2019 16:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looks like a bunch of tankers have been responded to Bungil
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1486631 - 24/01/2019 16:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Official Forest and Grass Fire danger maps for tommorrow hot of the press, very small areas above Code Red, lots above Extreme





Edited by logansi (24/01/2019 16:42)
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#1486646 - 24/01/2019 17:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just keeps getting worse dosent it!!
44c now forecast around my area with
Wind to 45km

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#1486649 - 24/01/2019 17:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
For anyone interested this is from the community meeting in Buchan

https://www.facebook.com/eastgippyshire/...M0MDgwNjE5MTkz/
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Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486815 - 25/01/2019 10:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Timbarra fire is spotting over Surveyors Track

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Timbarra Settlement.

There is a bushfire 10 km north of Timbarra that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Timbarra Settlement.
There are spot fires south of Surveyors Track.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486816 - 25/01/2019 10:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Watch & Act just issued for the Timbarra fire -indicates that fire (or spots)moving past defensive lines.

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#1486820 - 25/01/2019 10:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not what they want this early on already watch and
Act!!
Things starting to get real out there now

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#1486826 - 25/01/2019 11:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Forgot to report that yesterday a fire was lit on the Gormandale Rd adjacent to Loy Yang coal mine, right in a position the prevailing seabreeze was pushing from. Was controlled quickly according to my source.

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#1486828 - 25/01/2019 11:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Timbarra fire start to show on radar now
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#1486830 - 25/01/2019 11:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep the strongest winds starting to push
East of Melbourne into Gippsland now.
Cfa map shows the amount of trees falling
Moving east

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#1486831 - 25/01/2019 11:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic

Emergency Warning - Bushfire
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Gillingall.

There is a bushfire 10 km north of Timbarra that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Gillingall.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire.

Gillingall could be impacted anytime within the next few hours. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.

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#1486832 - 25/01/2019 11:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Real Blow up, aircraft returning to Swift Creek although most have been grounded all morning. Edit: 1 Reccon aircraft staying up, Firescanning aircraft also overhead at 15,000ft

This Emergency Warning is being issued for Gillingall.

There is a bushfire 10 km north of Timbarra that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Gillingall.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire.
Gillingall could be impacted anytime within the next few hours. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:

Travel to:
You should leave using Timbarra Road and head towards Buchan.
A relief centre has been set up at the Buchan Recreation Reserve, Orbost Road, Buchan.
The home of family or friends that is away from the warning area.
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.

In the car:
If you are travelling, do not enter the area. U-turn to safety.
Slow down and turn on your headlights. Smoke will make it difficult to see.





Edited by logansi (25/01/2019 11:32)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486833 - 25/01/2019 11:31 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep sheís gone now!!

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#1486834 - 25/01/2019 11:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Timbarra Settlement.

There is a bushfire 10 km north of Timbarra that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Timbarra Settlement.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it is now moving towards Timbarra Settlement.

Timbarra Settlement could be impacted anytime within the next few hours. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.

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#1486846 - 25/01/2019 12:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Pyrocumulus showing over the fire now from Mt Hotham live camera


_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486852 - 25/01/2019 12:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, Logansi. It's showing clearly and massively on the Bairnsdale radar.

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#1486871 - 25/01/2019 12:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Emergency warning areas continue to spread - many hours of nthlies still for this area.

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#1486874 - 25/01/2019 13:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Can see smoke in East Victoria by Satellite

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#1486879 - 25/01/2019 13:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
From Emergency Victoria







_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486884 - 25/01/2019 13:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Not started by by lighting, seem police investigation for sure.


Edited by chasers addict (25/01/2019 13:37)

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#1486885 - 25/01/2019 13:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Not started by by lighting, seem police investigation for sure.


It was started by lightning last Wednesday
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486890 - 25/01/2019 13:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Logansi , mother nature wants burn new seeds to regrow more trees.

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#1486918 - 25/01/2019 15:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Aircraft back up, including 4 Single Engine Tankers and a few helitacks - maps shows they are working around the W Tree area. Hot Spot data is from 11.49



Edited by logansi (25/01/2019 15:01)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486920 - 25/01/2019 15:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
flightradar24.com

Showing Plane No FSCN125 going around many times

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#1486922 - 25/01/2019 15:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Dont know way fire bombers not shown on radar

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#1486923 - 25/01/2019 15:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
They are sometimes but coverage is poor at that altitude. You can track them all @ http://www.incidentalert.com.au/iav4/map.php

Updates every 5-10mins
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486931 - 25/01/2019 15:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Significant lightning showing in Pyrocumulus now on radar

view from mt hotham now



Edited by logansi (25/01/2019 15:59)
_________________________
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#1486932 - 25/01/2019 16:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like Supercell as smoke properly go New Zealand and another problem is Thunderstorm on way to Moe.

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#1486935 - 25/01/2019 16:17 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Some of that lightning going to ground well outside current fire area. Incident Controller (on ABC) spoke of spotting right across to W-Tree area. CGs will extend number and range of spots.

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#1486940 - 25/01/2019 16:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I'll probably receive better images at sunset, but just received these at 0440UT from Himawaricast on Jcsat2B.


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#1486942 - 25/01/2019 16:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Learjet.

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#1486948 - 25/01/2019 16:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
hot spot data 3:49

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486956 - 25/01/2019 17:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Lightning could cause problems tonight around
The rangers in Gippsland

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#1486964 - 25/01/2019 17:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Have wait next week for wet weather to come by trough around Tuesday on ward..put out fires in hard bushland.

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#1487005 - 25/01/2019 20:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Timbarra fire has spotted across the Buchan R to the east and will now climb ridge creating the danger that, with the SW change will spot across to W-Tree, Gelantipy.

Before the sun went down the huge towering pyrocumulus was like a cotton wool mountain reaching high into the sky. Awesome (in the true sense of the word). Will post photo later if I can.

Massive amounts of lightning in rain band/front crossing central Gippsland atm. Not good.

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#1487008 - 25/01/2019 20:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Lightning causing all kinds of problems

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Boorolite, Delatite, Goughs Bay, Howqua, Howqua Hills, Howqua Inlet, Jamieson, Lake Eildon, Macs Cove, Mount Buller, Mountain Bay, Piries, Chapel Hill.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice Message issued at 7.30pm.
There is a bush fire at 2.5km NorthEastofHowqua that is not yet under control.
3-5 ha in size

Firefighters, aircraft and machinery are responding to the bush fire. Staying close to a building you can shelter in is the safest option as conditions can change suddenly.

and

This Watch & Act message is for Baddaginnie, Boho, Warrenbayne.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice issued at 7:55PM.
There is a grassfire at Davis Rd, Boho that is not yet under control.
This grassfire is travelling in a north-easterly direction towards Warrenbayne West Road.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487020 - 25/01/2019 21:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Gelantipy wind just went around to the SW so wind change should be impacting the fire now.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487022 - 25/01/2019 21:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic

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#1487023 - 25/01/2019 21:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes Logansi. It's now changed the focus towards the communities and farms along the south-north ridge W-Tree towards Wulgulmerang

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#1487028 - 25/01/2019 22:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Big day thatís for sure!! Now we have
A lot of fires through the rangers to contend
With. Need that rain badly to come through
Next week!!

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#1487041 - 25/01/2019 23:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hope this works - this is from the Himawari-8 satellite and shows the fire temperature map at 10min intervals - shows the development of the Timbara fire from 1010am to 10pm. The development between 1040 and 1130 is quite amazing

https://col.st/itOit


Edited by logansi (25/01/2019 23:58)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487058 - 26/01/2019 08:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Quite spectacular Logansi. Rosedale burned area show3s clearly.

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#1487092 - 26/01/2019 10:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah sure is awesome tech, I was surprised how visible the Rosedale fire still is.

Atleast 16 fires started by lightning last night, around the Upper Yarra Res, Tompson Dam and Dargo, where I expect a few more based of this spotting planes track



Edited by logansi (26/01/2019 10:16)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487108 - 26/01/2019 11:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
At 11am by incidentalert map still busy

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#1487141 - 26/01/2019 14:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The smoke near reaching South New Zealand and split by wind change moving upward in SE direction to Sydney coast.

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#1487143 - 26/01/2019 14:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Large Air Tankers responding 1 each to SOUTH GREENHILLS - NARROBUK SOUTH and JERICHO - THOMPSON - JORDAN DIVIDE ROAD

Every Aircraft East of Melbourne is currently committed including both skycranes leaving only 4 helitacks and 4 bombers left available statewide.



Edited by logansi (26/01/2019 14:45)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487175 - 26/01/2019 18:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Canít believe how many fires are up in
The rangers now!!
Looks like one of the fires around Matlock
HAS got going, itís jumped out to 700ha.
Hopefully not to many get out like this

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#1487179 - 26/01/2019 18:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Pretty sure itís the Matlock fire u can
See on bom Melbourne radar?
If it is itís motoring

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#1487185 - 26/01/2019 18:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thought it was chugging, watch and act
For fire up near Matlock

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#1487193 - 26/01/2019 19:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
From Thomson Dam Camera

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487199 - 26/01/2019 20:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Current aviation fleet


_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487201 - 26/01/2019 20:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
FEW fires starting to grow up there

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#1487210 - 26/01/2019 21:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
A video of some still from Firebird 300 shows the Pyrocumulus quite well

https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/posts/2098364440254718
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1487341 - 27/01/2019 12:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
As an aside to the fires, re external MAN POWER supply to work at them !

Close associate contracts for fire fighting with D7, needs an "Offsider" and has been called in to work on one of the many fires to our north etc.

I give him a hand in the offsider role on other occasions, not fire related, but he needs a hand NOW.

Offsiders need BASIC WILDFIRE AWARENESS COURSE and HAZARDOUS TREE Training which is available online.

The FOREST FIRE MANAGEMENT trains thru' LaDIS which requires an online student to enrol. System will not allow this enrolment to happen at the PASSWORD stage, even though the P/W suggested by the
LaDIS site is used.

My info is that External Plant Contractors in this end of Vic are having great difficulty getting Offsiders due to the lack of training which should be easily attainable.

Outcomes - External Plant operators will end up having offsiders supplied from Departmental resources, this depleting those available
to work at the fire line.

The ONLINE SUPPORT for the training works 0800-1700 Mon/Fri, have made every phone call available, going nowhere.

Yes - know training should have been carried out at leisure before yesterday but this is how it has eventuated.

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#1487400 - 27/01/2019 19:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
So where to now with all these fires up in those
Hills?
Thereís a few up there now that look to be
Becoming established!
Is it a case now if only good rain will hold them
Up?
Signs of maybe 10-15mm Wednesday/Thursday.
But quite hot again Tommoz and Tuesday so they
Could get up and going again

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#1487522 - 28/01/2019 14:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Looks like the Thompson dam fire may be up and running again, more aircraft have just been assigned to the fire and radar seems to be showing a small patch of smoke.

Both skycranes are now committed to this fire. A 3rd Skycrane on lease from NSW should arrive in the state later today.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487539 - 28/01/2019 16:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Bomber 166, a 3rd large air tanker has arrived from Dubbo on loan from NSW



Edited by logansi (28/01/2019 16:28)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487545 - 28/01/2019 17:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very Lucky fires near Thomson Lake so quicker keep refilling the bombers and more problems this Wednesday isolated thunderstorms


Edited by chasers addict (28/01/2019 17:40)

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#1487565 - 28/01/2019 18:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Saw 4-5 flights go over Maffra Golf Club heading to the Thompson or Licola Valley fires this arvo. Very impressive plane(s?), ..you know when they're up there when those 4 engine jets are full and climbing!


Edited by Petros (28/01/2019 18:50)

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#1487575 - 28/01/2019 19:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
The is a report of an aircraft accident right where the choppers are loading for the Thompson fire along NINE MILE RD JERICHO, i'm trying to work out if this is a confirmed down or 000 call saying aircraft looked to be crashing (which happens quite often when people see them descending to trees picking up water.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487586 - 28/01/2019 21:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hope its the later

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#1487590 - 28/01/2019 21:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
It is an Air Crane in the drink, crew OK.

(From the horses mouth accurate.)

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#1487593 - 28/01/2019 21:54 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487625 - 29/01/2019 09:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thomson fire nearly at 1,000ha now.
Could see a nice column of smoke coming
Out of it yesterday

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#1487628 - 29/01/2019 09:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
All skycranes grounded nation wide today, puts even more strain on our fleet which is already at capacity.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487642 - 29/01/2019 11:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
that crash is going to make this fire season costly! $30m for one of those orange beasts. Hope they are able to salvage the chopper today and find out the cause. I'm sure the smaller choppers and the ground crews will step up and we will barely notice smile
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1487689 - 29/01/2019 16:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thomson fire up and cranking again via radar.
Over the past half hour plume has really got
Going.

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#1487691 - 29/01/2019 16:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Thomson fire up and cranking again via radar.
Over the past half hour plume has really got
Going.


Looks like its cross the Thomson-Jordan road to the SE, this was planned as a containment line. 3 Large Air Tankers working from Avalon all day.



Edited by logansi (29/01/2019 16:44)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487692 - 29/01/2019 16:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep logansi. Def looks to be having a good
Run at it atm!!

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#1487694 - 29/01/2019 17:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
1-8mm forecast for my area Tomorrow.
Now, the question is we need decent rain
With these storms or we could be in all sorts
If there dry!!

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#1487724 - 29/01/2019 19:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mt Baw Baw resort was evacuated this afternoon?

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#1487725 - 29/01/2019 19:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Itís really making a run this arvo!!
Cfa app just updated and showing the fire
Has grown 300 plus ha just in the last couple
Hours!

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#1487728 - 29/01/2019 19:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really big bubbly white plume looking nortb
From my place.
Not sure what Tommoz will do to this fire?
Jane bunn said possibly up to 10mm east
Of Melbourne. But then u have the risk of
Wind and drier storms

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#1487749 - 29/01/2019 20:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
The fire has now over doubled in size today
In the space of about 3.5hours!
Another updated map posted on the cfa website
Shows it must have spotted over to the north
Side of the Thomson.
Itís running along both sides of the dam now.
Looks like the main front of the fire to the sw side of
The dam could go straight over it and keep running?

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#1487791 - 30/01/2019 08:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
Massive electrical storm just hit powers out until lunchtime constant lightning heavy rain for 5 minutes only probably enough to put out any lightning strike fire
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1487793 - 30/01/2019 08:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
Satellite pic shows one narsty cell growing bigger towards the hills up near benalla strathbogie rangers that could be a problem
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1487794 - 30/01/2019 08:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
Satellite pic shows one narsty cell growing bigger towards the hills up near benalla strathbogie rangers that could be a problem
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1487799 - 30/01/2019 08:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like those storms have fairly good rain
With them so hopefully they donít cause to many
New fires. And that the main lightning is directly
In the main core of rain

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#1487834 - 30/01/2019 12:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Weird weather with overcast conditions this
Morning, now clear and hot

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#1487836 - 30/01/2019 12:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No rain around here all stayed to the nortb
And east of us

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#1487871 - 30/01/2019 15:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Thomson Dam upgraded to watch and act

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Aberfeldy, O'Keefe, Sullivans, The Junction, Thomson, Toner, Toombon.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice message issued at 11.20 today Wednesday the 30th of January.
The Thomson Jordan Divide Road fire is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the spread of the fire.

Fire intensity has increased and residents in surrounding community need to stay informed and monitor conditions.


WESTERN HWY - DRUNG Make Tankers 10

WHINMERE RD MARLBED - Make Tankers 10
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487873 - 30/01/2019 15:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Request for More air support at the Drung Fire

Large Air Tankers responding to WALHALLA STONEY CK ROAD


Edited by logansi (30/01/2019 15:49)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487876 - 30/01/2019 16:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms in West is very good humid rain and moving Eastward case more problems of lighting risk.

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#1487884 - 30/01/2019 16:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 79
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
A cell just passed to my south and one just passing to my north. A few rain drops with some lightning and thunder.
Hope to get a direct hit from the next few cells as the radar looks slightly promising.

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#1487894 - 30/01/2019 17:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 79
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
^^^

Wrong thread.

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#1487903 - 30/01/2019 17:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Cowwarr, Cowwarr Weir, Dawson, Seaton, Toongabbie.

This Watch and Act replaces the advice message issued at 3.40pm.
There are bushfires at 6.7Km Ne Of Walhalla that are not yet under control.
The bushfires are travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Seaton, Cowarr and Toongabbie.
The fires were started by lightning earlier today and are burning strongly.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487908 - 30/01/2019 17:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Big bomber just flew straight over here
Direct route to walhalla fire

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#1487913 - 30/01/2019 18:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Some very strong wind in front of this change
That wonít be good for these fires

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#1487929 - 30/01/2019 19:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Thomson Dam fire from Dam wall live cam

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1487953 - 30/01/2019 20:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Very severe westerly change just arrived here. Hope no fire crews around here are caught on the E side of this one.

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#1487970 - 30/01/2019 21:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Very disappointing 0.2mm here. Looked good
On radar but died away between here and
Melbourne!
Not good having plenty of lightning strikes
Around but only a few mm of rain around the
Hills in general.

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#1487971 - 30/01/2019 21:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not sure if there would have been enough rain
Over those fires to do much

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#1488184 - 31/01/2019 17:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Large Air Tankers working on the BLACKWOOD CHAT WOOD TK fire and CONNEWARRE - BELCHERS LANE swamp and peat fire today. Large Air Tankers have no been used almost everyday since the start of the Timbara fire.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488198 - 31/01/2019 18:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Latest map on emergency.vic.au shows the south/southeast movement of the Thomson fire - quite significant.

Listened to a briefing by Ben Rankin Regional Controller DEWLP earlier today. He said the W&A was issued because they feared the fire would spot across to the eastern side of the reservoir and run away down that side towards Walhalla etc - said they were very relieved that it didn't spot across.

Just noticed the "6.7Km Ne Of Walhalla" fire is now at 306ha. Edit: the country to its south is the Thomson Gorge - will not really want a fire to get entangled in there - will be impossible to deal with in there and could only be managed by containment much further back.


Edited by ThunderBob (31/01/2019 18:17)

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#1488228 - 31/01/2019 19:35 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for that info tb 👍
Did he have any other bits and pieces on those
Fires up around the Thomson/walhalla area?
Any projections for the next few days?

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#1488239 - 31/01/2019 19:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
No Dooga, nothing else really. The IC is doing a briefing tomorrow - don't know whether it'll be streamed or recorded.

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#1488244 - 31/01/2019 20:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not sure what everyone thoughts are on another
Spike fire day on Sunday?
With the following at play, this could potentially be a
Pretty bad fire weekend imo

Two un contained large fires.
A lot of smaller fires now burning up in the rangers
Mainly to the south of the Thomson fires.
And there was so much lightning Wednesday night
There will likely be more fires which may still appear.
And only a short window to try and tie new fires up before
Heat and wind starts to kick in Saturday!

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#1488245 - 31/01/2019 20:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Ok Tb thanks mate 👍

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#1488264 - 31/01/2019 21:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Dooga, here's the link to Ben Rankin's briefing on the Gippsland fires:

https://www.facebook.com/cfagippsland/videos/670195050065432/

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#1488269 - 31/01/2019 21:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks so much Tb that was great 👍

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#1488275 - 31/01/2019 22:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
The Thomson I suppose would act like some
Sort of fire break on the east side of fire, looks like
The southern most tip of fire will run down
To water edge,so th western edge could be where
Most activity might lie

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#1488281 - 31/01/2019 22:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2159
Loc: Sale, VIC
Avro Fire Bomber, couple of pics last Sunday 27/01 at RAAF East Sale.






Interesting mesh at tail, not visible at landing. Diffuser for phoscheck ?

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#1488332 - 01/02/2019 09:50 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
^^ The are speed brakes, used on the RJ85, 100 and BAE145

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp0Y4gxHDmg
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488391 - 01/02/2019 14:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Walhalla fire cranking up again under east
Nor east wind. Distinct plume development over
Past hour

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#1488394 - 01/02/2019 14:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Another day another deployment for the large air tankers, off to GLEN FORBES fire which is currently at Watch and Act.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488402 - 01/02/2019 15:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Adams Estate, Almurta, Glen Forbes, Grantville.

There is a bushfire at June St, Glen Forbes that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a northerly direction towards Adams Estate and Bass Hwy.
The fire started in the Grantville Nature Reserve.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire due to inaccessible bush land land and it is now moving towards adams Estate and the Bass Hwy.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488406 - 01/02/2019 15:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Big fire starting just north of Yallourn north

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#1488409 - 01/02/2019 16:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
20 trucks and aircraft now on Yallourn north
Fire! In plantation and going pretty hard
Under a easterly

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#1488411 - 01/02/2019 16:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Total lack of aircraft now, aircraft have been pulled from the Thomson and Timbara fires for the Yallourn North and Glen Frobes fires.

Meanwhile from Thomson dam wall live view

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488413 - 01/02/2019 16:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Tanjil South.

There is a bushfire at 7.5 Km Nw Yallourn North that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a easterly direction towards Moe-Walhalla Road.
The fire started in Moondarra State Park and is travelling parallel to the transmissions lines.
It is currently 10 hectares in size.
This fire is threatening homes and lives along the Moe-Walhalla road.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488414 - 01/02/2019 16:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep new it was only a matter of time before
They issued the emergency warning.
The fire is burning strong

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#1488444 - 01/02/2019 18:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Update fire map showing Yallourn fire burning right
Up to major transmission line

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#1488455 - 01/02/2019 19:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, Dooga ... is that potentially problematic ... I thought that it is but perhaps I'm wrong.

We must be grateful that this weekend's weather, though hot and with some wind, is not as bad a "blow-up" day as it might be. Otherwise the current situation would turn very, very difficult.

Let's hope for as benign conditions as is possible.

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#1488478 - 01/02/2019 21:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This weekend looks to become problematic for Nth Central Gippsland. Hope Sunday doesnt come with too much wind.

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#1488479 - 01/02/2019 21:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Update fire map showing Yallourn fire burning right
Up to major transmission line


Good point. "Luckily" now that Hazelwood was prematurely shut down due the Dans increased coal royalties, that line can be de-energised if it is at risk without major impact.

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#1488498 - 01/02/2019 22:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Cheers p I didnít know they could do that.

Logansi- have u heard any details on the fires
Burning around the place today and what they
Think might happen this weekend?

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#1488504 - 01/02/2019 22:46 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Cheers p I didnít know they could do that.

Logansi- have u heard any details on the fires
Burning around the place today and what they
Think might happen this weekend?


Sunday is going to be an interesting day, fire danger is highest in the west but still Very High around those fires. Going to be a lot of work to contain the 2 new fires which started today near Yallourn North and Grantville, especially with already stretched resources.

My concern is that the Thomson dam fire could develop quite a bit and possibly get fairly close to Rawson. Even without the really strong winds Sunday again brings the risk of pyrocumulus development with could increase the winds above forecast.

Walhalla fire could also move quite a bit to the SE.

Also risk of new starts with storms tomorrow and Sunday.

As mentioned very lucky that fire danger wont be highest in Gippsland. I am however worried that if anything gets going out this way that resources have been sent east such as aircraft. Its one thing to release aircraft to a fire fairly close - its another doing to for a fire on the other side of the state.


Edited by logansi (01/02/2019 22:47)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488507 - 01/02/2019 22:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah resources must be really stretched now as
U say.
If all these fires get up and moving again Tommoz,
Then u would think the whole weekend they will have
To prioritise which fires they Send the heavy
Aircraft to? More assets protection I suppose, fires like
The Yallourn fire which is fairly close to moe and
Yallourn North.

Do u know if there confident on holding the two fires that
Got going today?
U also have the fact of more starts from all
Those strikes Wednesday night

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#1488578 - 02/02/2019 13:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Upto 100mm rain likely for central Victoria to East Victoria by cells next week chance put fires out.

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#1488580 - 02/02/2019 13:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Almurta, Bass, Glen Forbes, Grantville.

There is a bushfire at June St, Glen Forbes that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Dalyston-Glenn Forbes.
The fire has broken containment lines on the southern edge
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
Conditions have changed unexpectedly and the fire is moving towards Dalyston-Glenn Forbes Road.

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.

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#1488581 - 02/02/2019 13:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Radar shows the plume from the Bass fire. Must be going strongly in such a heavily populated area.

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#1488621 - 02/02/2019 18:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not looking to good Tommoz for fires!
Tfb posted for whole of vic and bumped wind speed
Up a little as well!! Could be a long day, letís hope
They can keep everything at bay!

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#1488630 - 02/02/2019 19:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is for Basalt, Dry Diggings, Elevated Plains, Hepburn, Hepburn Springs, Mount Franklin, Shepherds Flat.

There is a grass and scrub fire at Elevated Plains that is not yet under control in the vicinity of Mannings Road, north of Dry Diggings Track.
This grass and scrub fire is travelling in a south easterly direction.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488633 - 02/02/2019 19:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thatís not good logansi getting a new start up
In that area! Firies going to have a long
Hard day Tommoz I think

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#1488635 - 02/02/2019 19:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Robbie84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2091
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Geeze you guys aren't being cut any slack over in Victoria then again the SE of South Australia where i am is the same we have already had 2 sizeable grassies in the last couple of weeks more recently yesterday evening outside of Penola thankfully that was stopped by a watered paddock adding Australia Day grass fire at Lake Bonney

Its only the start of February and i got a feeling mother nature ain't done with us just yet in SA and Vic

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#1488636 - 02/02/2019 19:51 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hepburn fire requesting 4 choppers, won't happen with night approaching, night equipment committed in Gippsland and only 3 choppers available state wide right now.

3 Strike teams also responding. Southern front slowly moving twds Hepburn and northern flank becoming active. Personally I think this fire is a concern, going to be really hard even if fire activity reduces tonight to control it by morning.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488640 - 02/02/2019 20:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep logansi, u would think it will be a going fire Tommoz
And thatís what we donít want!
So that means the current fires that probably
Wonít be contained by Tommoz and still
Burning are and could/will cause trouble are:

Tindarra fire
Walhalla fire
Grantville fife
Thomson fire
Possibly Hepburn fire
If these all really get cranking, Iíd be thinking we wonít
Have the resources to keep up?
And that list is without fires that are contained but still
Simmering and could jump out

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#1488641 - 02/02/2019 20:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Tonight will stay warm as well, not sure about wind
But overnight lows are fairly high

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#1488664 - 02/02/2019 20:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Most recent sitrep, 35 ha going, increased fire activity on the Eastern flank, while the Eastern flank moves it away from Hepburn, it'll push it further into the bush meaning make it harder to contain.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488673 - 02/02/2019 20:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi.

Very much hope all in Vic get through tomorrows fire conditions safely.

We are so proud of our CFA v volunteers and dnre staff.

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#1488712 - 03/02/2019 00:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
lot of resources going into the Hepburn fire, around 40 trucks on scene, fire burning in very inaccessible country right the slope down from the plain. Talk of MFB pumper truck team heading up for township protection tomorrow.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488718 - 03/02/2019 00:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
yeah the MFB are getting a few runs to fires..... saw a MFB task force at the grantville fire today for what i'm guessing was asset protection
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1488742 - 03/02/2019 08:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not a good start to the day, emergency warning
Just been issued for the Hepburn fire

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#1488760 - 03/02/2019 10:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Strike Team just paged to the Timbarra fire not sure if pre planned or fire picking up a bit.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488780 - 03/02/2019 12:26 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Emergency warning issued for Hepburn bushfire, in central Victoria Big problem is middle of divided ranges have steering winds as North is N/NE wind and cool breeze can change winds in evening.

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#1488796 - 03/02/2019 13:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Walhalla fire loooks to have blown up big time
From what I can see! Showing up on radar
As well

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#1488799 - 03/02/2019 13:51 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Sure is Dooga.

Lightning starting in East Gippsland.


Edited by ThunderBob (03/02/2019 13:51)

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#1488802 - 03/02/2019 14:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Latest published scan shows the Walhalla fire expanded to nearly 1000ha moving to south. Storms with lightning becoming general along the E. Gippsland coast.

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#1488803 - 03/02/2019 14:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep Tb massive pyro cloud development
And yes I see the lightning starting to show up
As well

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#1488813 - 03/02/2019 14:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for residents south of Gillingall on Hunter Lane.

There is a bushfire south of Gillingall on Hunter Lane that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it has crossed containment lines.
_______________________________________________

The Timbarra fire is obviously making a run southward.

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#1488815 - 03/02/2019 14:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Timbarra fire now at Emergency and also showing on radar.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488818 - 03/02/2019 14:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not sure how the walhalla fire isnít an
Emergency warning either? Itís really
Humming

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#1488821 - 03/02/2019 15:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Buchan, Buchan South, Murrindal, Sunny Point, Timbarra, Wulgulmerang West.

There is a bushfire south of Gillingall on Hunter Lane that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it has crossed containment lines.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488822 - 03/02/2019 15:05 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1268
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
probably still yet to hit a trigger.... The northerly winds will not have many impacts on the community around that fire for a bit of time. When the change starts to push through it should move in emergency warning
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1488823 - 03/02/2019 15:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Noting that I am not in a position to definitively say this - but it looks like the Timbarra fire is spotting significantly to its south.

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#1488824 - 03/02/2019 15:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks dawd.
Yeah it possibly could be a spot to the south
Tb?

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#1488828 - 03/02/2019 15:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
If your refering to the fire showing just south of the Emergency warning area for the Timbarra fire you can ignore it, its an event which has been created because its the meet up point for CFA strike teams.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488834 - 03/02/2019 15:40 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Think the Thomson fire is starting to make
A run as well now according to radar

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#1488836 - 03/02/2019 15:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Things happening now as the change gets closer!
Grantville fire gone again to emergency

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#1488837 - 03/02/2019 15:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Seaton.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice issued at 13:33.
The bushfire west of Seaton has become active and producing large columns of smoke.
Residents will experience ash, burnt leaves and smoke in the area.
Review and activate your fire survival plan including any livestock & domestic pets.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the spread of the fire. Staying close to a building you can shelter in is the safest option as conditions can change suddenly.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488842 - 03/02/2019 16:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Murrindal, W Tree, Wulgulmerang West, Yalmy, Gillingall.

The bushfire south of W Tree and north of Murrindal is not yet under control.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it is now spotting over the Murrindal River.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Tulloch Ard Road.
The bushfire crossed containment lines south of Gillingall near Hunter Lane.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
Residents of areas between W Tree and Murrindal could be impacted anytime within the next two hours. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488851 - 03/02/2019 17:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Reports of some isolated very heavy rainfalls around Bairnsdale. Nothing here.

Constant thunder for past 2 hours or so.

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#1488854 - 03/02/2019 17:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Cowwarr, Cowwarr Weir, Dawson, Swing Bridge, Toongabbie.

There is a bushfire at 6.7 km NE of Walhalla that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction.
This bushfire could impact areas between Cowwarr Weir and Toongabbie any time between 6pm and 8pm.
This is Emergency Warning replaces the Watch & Act issued at 4.10pm.
The are between Cowwarr Weir and Toongabbie could be impacted between 6pm - 8pm. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488873 - 03/02/2019 18:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Jeez the fire WNW of Heyfield look to be significant, given its signature on the BOM radar. Best wishes for all property owners out that way.

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#1488889 - 03/02/2019 18:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rumbles of thunder from the Cowarr fire direction. Impressive pyro cloud a above it atm

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#1488890 - 03/02/2019 18:54 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Latest published scan of the Cowwarr fire shows spotting up to 3km away to east and south.

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#1488902 - 03/02/2019 19:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Maiden Town, Walhalla, Western.

There is a bushfire at Walhalla that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a westerly direction towards Walhalla
This fire has the potential to threaten homes and lives.
Weather conditions have changed and spotting is occurring in and around Walhalla.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488906 - 03/02/2019 19:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
[censored] going down up there around walhalla rawson
Area! I reckon the pyrocumulous is throwing
Lightning starting more fires.

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#1488908 - 03/02/2019 19:41 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Boola, Coopers Creek.

There is a bushfire at Coopers Creek that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Tyers-Walhalla Rd.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly.


What you should do:
Monitor changes to the situation. Increased wind speed, change in wind direction, smoke or poor visibility can indicate the situation is changing.
If you are away from home, do not return.

If the situation changes or you feel unsafe you should leave:
Take your pets, medications, mobile phone and charger.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Do not travel to Walhalla as spot fires are starting in the area.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488910 - 03/02/2019 19:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep there popped up everywhere around Erica
Rawson walhalla big trouble!
Wind change just through here and very
Gusty no rain

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#1488911 - 03/02/2019 19:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Report from Firebird 300 to control:

"Pyrocumulous and severe storm activity occur across the fire ground, winds extremely ecstatic and gusts likely in excess of 100kph from all directions. Possible rotation within storm. Aircraft to remain well clear."


Edited by logansi (03/02/2019 19:49)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488915 - 03/02/2019 19:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Would believe it from what I can see from
Here!! It looks real bad

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#1488916 - 03/02/2019 19:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488920 - 03/02/2019 20:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Incredible!

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#1488922 - 03/02/2019 20:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thatís crazy!! I can see that way from my place
And itís black!

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#1488931 - 03/02/2019 20:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Fire now out to 6800ha, thats doubled in 3 hours.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1488937 - 03/02/2019 20:37 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep just had a shower with more lightning
And strong wind through here. Wind now
Sw and strong

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#1488949 - 03/02/2019 21:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
The walhalla fire I think has passed the Thomson
Fire size wise in one afternoon 🤔🤔

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#1489001 - 03/02/2019 23:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
1 mining era cottage lost at Walhalla but nothing else at this time, fire activity has reduced significant with rain. There was very significant spotting into the Walhalla township.


Edited by logansi (03/02/2019 23:02)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1489083 - 04/02/2019 13:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...


Wow, thanks for posting Logansi - what a close call it was up at Walhalla last night. Heard Michael on the ABC this morning saying the 11mm in 10 mins basically saved the town. Well at least from Round 1.

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#1489220 - 05/02/2019 15:23 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The East is overcast into rain humid hope put out all fires out this week.

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#1492370 - 24/02/2019 16:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Didnít really want to be posting on this thread
Again, but after a cool two weeks or so it
Looks like another severe heatwave is on
Itís way toward end of next week. So I
Suppose this period will bring more fire risk
With it! Still very dry around here thatís
For sure!

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#1492373 - 24/02/2019 17:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It's ridiculously dry Dooga - both superficially and deeply. Will be drier by next weekend. Have to hope the heat isn't broken by strong winds.

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#1492484 - 25/02/2019 20:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I just see now on the cfa map, that they have
Now pronounced the walhalla fire as going again
And issued and updated advice message including
All towns around the fire and all towns to the south
And east of fire. Also mentions increased fire activity
And the warmer weather thatís coming up over
The coming week

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#1492700 - 28/02/2019 23:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
16+ starts between about Baw Baw and Omeo. Storms continued after dark ... expect more starts will be apparent tomorrow.

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#1492739 - 01/03/2019 12:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hey guys from a very hot Adelaide - currently 39 out my way.

Atleast 18 fire states yesterday in Gippsland due to lightning. Number of them growing well, with a couple of fires already around 40ha with 2 over 100ha.

This is from the Mt Hotham live cam, looking at the MYFORD - TUCKALONG SPUR fire.


_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492742 - 01/03/2019 12:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. Yeah, wish it were otherwise.

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#1492768 - 01/03/2019 17:23 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Lightning to NE of Melb sparking numerous fires. And, as Logansi mentioned earlier, many going fires in the central Alps area. Likely to be a difficult couple of days.

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#1492769 - 01/03/2019 17:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Massive air responce, once again Victoria is down to just 3 helicopters and a few bombers left - all in the west.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492777 - 01/03/2019 17:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This ainít good! Now the west side rangers has
Lit up! Bunyip state park has a lot of fire
Starts through there!!
Basically fires now burning all through the
Rangers from bunyip through to Omeo

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#1492784 - 01/03/2019 18:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Very rough count of currently 40 fires going or contained which started either today or yesterday - this may include duplicates for CFA/FFM attendance
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492785 - 01/03/2019 18:42 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bunyip state park not in a good way!
1 x emergency warning
2x watch and acts

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#1492786 - 01/03/2019 18:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
And still two more hot days to come ending
With a bit of wind

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#1492793 - 01/03/2019 20:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Main Bunyip fire








Edited by logansi (01/03/2019 20:12)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492794 - 01/03/2019 20:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee wiz!! Ainít going to be a good two days ahead

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#1492798 - 01/03/2019 20:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Gee wiz!! Ainít going to be a good two days ahead


No, it's going to be very difficult.

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#1492824 - 02/03/2019 08:07 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fire already up and running showing up on
Radar and new emergency warning issued.
For bunyip state park

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#1492827 - 02/03/2019 08:44 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Black Snake Creek, Cowa, Crooked River, Dargo, Gibbs, Hawkhurst, Maguires, Miowera.

There is a bushfire at 7Km Nw Of Dargo that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Dargo.
This bushfire could impact Dargo any time between 9am and midday.


Second fire at Emergency Level, expect more by this afternoon a large number of fires have made very significant runs overnight.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492830 - 02/03/2019 08:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep logansi thereís just to many fires going
That are impacted straight away by hot and
Windy conditions.
Overnight was warm with fairly low humidity
Allowing fires to continue to tick over

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#1492841 - 02/03/2019 10:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Watching a fire just started out at yinnar south
Strezlecki rangers. Can see it clearly from my place

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#1492844 - 02/03/2019 10:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Budgeree, Jumbuk, Yinnar South.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice issued at 10:40.
There is a bushfire at Budgeree that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Upper Middle Creek Road and Gillberts Road in Budgeree..
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492845 - 02/03/2019 10:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Watch and act now for the yinnar south budgeree
Fire! Really taken off Iím last 10min

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#1492846 - 02/03/2019 10:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Listening to IC for Bunyip fires on 774 - making no secret of the difficulty of making any impact on fire spread which he fears will start spotting into open country.

Princes Freeway and railway in process of being closed.

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#1492847 - 02/03/2019 11:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Just issued:


Emergency Warning - Bushfire
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Black Snake Creek, Cowa, Crooked River, Dargo, Gibbs, Hawkhurst, Maguires, Miowera.

There is a bushfire 7Km Nw Of Dargo that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Dargo.
This bushfire could impact Dargo any time between 11am and 2pm.
This fire is currently 226ha and is spotting into private property east of the fire front.

Dargo could be impacted anytime within the next 3 hours. Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.

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#1492850 - 02/03/2019 11:10 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Another just issued:

his Emergency Warning is being issued for Budgeree, Jumbuk, Yinnar South.

This Emergency Warning replaces the Watch & Act Message issued at 11:00am.
There is a bushfire at Budgeree that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Upper Middle Creek Road and Gilberts Road in Budgeree.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.

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#1492851 - 02/03/2019 11:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Strike teams being paged almost every 10 minutes to the Bunyip fires. Atleast 6 paged in the last hour.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492852 - 02/03/2019 11:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A look at http://incidentalert.com.au/iav4/map.php gives some idea of the logistical challenge facing the State today.

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#1492878 - 02/03/2019 15:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Tomorrow, Sun, 3 Mar 2019 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban for the whole State of Victoria.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492894 - 02/03/2019 17:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Well, a lot more fires have started from
Yesterdayís lightning specially to the north
OF rawson and over near Tanjil Bren Baw
Baw area. A lot of the existing fires have
Really got going and consolidated!!
Iíd expect a pretty warm night tonight so
Many of those fires may well burn strong through
The night?
Tommoz is a big big day with strong nor west wind
Initially then the dreaded wind change!
Itís a real mess around the hills atm but could
Potentially turn into something that we really donít wanna
See Tommoz!!
Smoke everywhere around here and I no longer
Have a view of the budgeree fire

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#1492895 - 02/03/2019 17:31 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hate these pager messages

PROCEED TO THE TOWN CENTRE CODE 1 FOR ASSET PROTECTION MARYKNOLL
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492896 - 02/03/2019 17:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Requesting police to help evacuate Maryknoll township
_________________________
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#1492897 - 02/03/2019 17:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
That's serious Logansi.

Dargo fire has been stepped back to W&A. There's a lot of fire up btw Dargo and Licola.

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#1492899 - 02/03/2019 18:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Pagers In the last 5 mins

ANY PUMPERS IN LTV REQUIRED AT YINNAR FOOTBALL CODE 1

ST1020 CODE 1 HEYFT1 SALEFC SALET1 ST1020 WSDET1 WSTHT1 YRAMT1 TRAVEL CH360 ASSEMBLE AT YINNAR RECREATION RESERV

INVLFC MEENT1 PCRKBF PCRKT1 ST9281 TORAT1 WELST1 TRAVEL CH360 ASSEMBLE AT YINNAR RECREATION RESERVE

HOUSE FIRE Peel Dr, Yinnar South



Edited by logansi (02/03/2019 18:39)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492901 - 02/03/2019 18:43 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 79
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
Wow. Huge smoke plume visible on satellite.


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#1492905 - 02/03/2019 19:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hearing the Walhalla fire is starting to flare up.
_________________________
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#1492906 - 02/03/2019 19:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Those calls u posted for pumpers logansi
Does not surprise me one bit. This fire hit something
And put up massive mushrooms cloud over
The last hour or so!!
Walhalla fire? I know the cfa app just posted
A new start near Erica?

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#1492907 - 02/03/2019 19:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Those calls u posted for pumpers logansi
Does not surprise me one bit. This fire hit something
And put up massive mushrooms cloud over
The last hour or so!!
Walhalla fire? I know the cfa app just posted
A new start near Erica?


The original Walhalla/Coppers Ck fire, Erika Captain requested only 1 truck to go to the new call because fire activity was increasing on the SW end of the Walhalla fire.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492908 - 02/03/2019 19:14 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Your right!! Iíve literally just walked out the back
And there is a huge huge mushroom gone
Up in the exact area of walhalla fire!!

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#1492909 - 02/03/2019 19:23 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Your right!! Iíve literally just walked out the back
And there is a huge huge mushroom gone
Up in the exact area of walhalla fire!!


Not sure it from that bad, i'm looking at satellite and not much showing - lot of smoke mixing in the area from both the Bunyip and Licola fires.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492910 - 02/03/2019 19:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Def Went up into a big mushy logansi.
Yinnar fire has flattened out a bit now

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#1492913 - 02/03/2019 19:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking at radar the mushy saw looks
To be one of the fires near Licola I think

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#1492916 - 02/03/2019 20:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Crookayan, Glencairn, Glenfalloch, Licola, Licola North, Sargood, Worrowing.

This Watch and Act replaces the Advice message issued at 10.00am today.
The bushfire 6.5Km south east Of Licola is not yet under control and has joined with another fire.
Combined, they have burnt about 1000 hectares.
The smoke column produced by this fire is causing embers and burnt material to be blown in and around Licola.
Fire crews from CFA and FFMV are currently situated in Licola and will monitor and patrol the situation overnight.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492921 - 02/03/2019 21:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Can see big glow and flames over on the
Yinnar South fire. Stiff nor east blowin here which
Would be fanning that fire

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#1492923 - 02/03/2019 21:19 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Licola fire shows up just as big as Bunyip fire on latest bom radar.

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#1492927 - 02/03/2019 21:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Pagers still going off

ALERT BUNY1 G&SC1 BUSHFIRE THREATENING HOUSES 229 BRIDAL RD TONIMBUK /TONIMBUK RD

TRUC1 BUSH FIRE THREATENING HOUSE 228 BRIDAL RD TONIMBUK /TONIMBUK RD

BUSH FIRE THREATENING HOUSE 48 SAWMILL LANE TYNONG NORTH
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492929 - 02/03/2019 22:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Plenty of flames on ridges still over at yinnar
South fire atm

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#1492937 - 02/03/2019 22:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It is strongly recommended that you Prepare to Evacuate if you are located in Labertouche North.

There is a bushfire at Bunyip State Park that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is is expected to change direction and head north-easterly direction towards Labertouche North.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire.
This bushfire could impact Labertouche North any time on Sunday 3 March after 12:00 noon.

The fire is expected to reach Labertouche North after 12:00.
If you are in this area prepare to evacuate in the morning.

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#1492943 - 03/03/2019 08:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Several "Building Fire" incidents listed currently on SE/E side of Bunyip fire.

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#1492945 - 03/03/2019 09:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
9 News Live stream, numerous homes alight in Bunyip area

https://www.9news.com.au/videos/watch-li...F6w2aHeBe3sg8_U
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492947 - 03/03/2019 10:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
9 News Live stream, numerous homes alight in Bunyip area

https://www.9news.com.au/videos/watch-li...F6w2aHeBe3sg8_U


... showing a number of houses involved and others under threat. Very upsetting.

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#1492948 - 03/03/2019 10:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492951 - 03/03/2019 10:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Every single attack aircraft in Victoria, including 8 on loan from NSW are now committed. This means that the state now has no air support coverage. I've been following Vic Fires since about 2010 and don't remember a time that where not 1 aircraft available.


Edited by logansi (03/03/2019 10:52)
_________________________
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#1492953 - 03/03/2019 12:25 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very worry when wind change later and hope no Thundery lighting don't want any more is Victoria too dry.

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#1492955 - 03/03/2019 13:01 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
hearing the Bunyip fire has now spotted south of the freeway between LongWarry and Bunyip
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492956 - 03/03/2019 13:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Radar indicating Licola fire (and Mt Cynthia fire NW of Dargo) firing up.

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#1492957 - 03/03/2019 13:24 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Radar indicating Licola fire (and Mt Cynthia fire NW of Dargo) firing up.


... mapping on www.emergency.vic.gov.au shows it spotting well down-wind to the south

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#1492958 - 03/03/2019 13:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Licola fire is the only fire which has a fully developed phyrocumulus at the moment. Its currently has no aircraft assigned to it. Could it each the Valencia Crk area before the wind change?

Here is the view from the Mt Hotham live cam, showing the Mayford (closest on the left side) and Mt Darling (right side) fires with the Licola fire in the background

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492959 - 03/03/2019 13:29 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
From Maffra the licola fire looks like its more than 1/2 to valencia from this vantage. Fluffy white ash now falling.

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#1492960 - 03/03/2019 13:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It is a concern, P. Keep us in the loop.

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#1492961 - 03/03/2019 13:46 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
lightning now showing up on WZ radar for the Licola fire
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492962 - 03/03/2019 13:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 79
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
Originally Posted By: logansi
lightning now showing up on WZ radar for the Licola fire


Is that lightning caused by the smoke cloud or an actual thunderstorm that formed due to extreme lift from the heat below?

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#1492964 - 03/03/2019 14:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: RandomGuy]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
Originally Posted By: logansi
lightning now showing up on WZ radar for the Licola fire


Is that lightning caused by the smoke cloud or an actual thunderstorm that formed due to extreme lift from the heat below?

Not positive Random but I think it is activity in the smoke plume rather than a fire-induced thunderstorm.

The lightning activity is increasing since Logansi posted.

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#1492965 - 03/03/2019 14:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Its with in the Pyrocumulus (now pyrocumulonimbus)

Hotham cam shows massive devlopment since my post less than 30 mins ago



Edited by logansi (03/03/2019 14:07)
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492966 - 03/03/2019 14:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 79
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
That's insane! Not good.

Just did a quick search on wiki re pyrocumulonimbus and found this bit interesting:

"On 18 January 2003, a supercell thunderstorm formed from a cumulonimbus flammagenitus cloud associated with a severe wildfire, during the 2003 Canberra bushfires in Canberra, Australia. The supercell resulted in a large fire tornado, rated at EF3 on the fujita scale, the first confirmed violent fire tornado.The tornado and associated fire killed 4 people and injured 492."


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#1492968 - 03/03/2019 14:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Been watching the Yinnar South fire all morning.
Was 3-4 plumes in various areas burning pretty
Hard! CAnt see a thing now as shrouded in
Bunyip fire smoke

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#1492970 - 03/03/2019 14:56 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Still looks like the change hasnít reached
Melb yet?

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#1492971 - 03/03/2019 14:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
As predicted

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Blore, Boisdale, Briagolong, Bulldog Junction, Bushy Park, Huggett, Maffra West Upper, Morgan, Valencia Creek.

There is a bushfire at 6.5Km south east of Licola that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterlydirection towards Valencia Creek.
Strong winds have significantly increased fire activity producing spot fires approximately 6 kilometres ahead of the main fire.
Embers have started falling in the Valencia Creek area.
These winds from the north west are expected to continue for most of the afternoon. A south westerly wind change is expected between 5pm and 6pm.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492972 - 03/03/2019 14:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492974 - 03/03/2019 15:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks logansi

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#1492975 - 03/03/2019 15:09 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
SO thereís a wind change and then a lull
And another wind change later on🤔
I really dreading this wind change and what
Impact it might have on all these fires

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#1492979 - 03/03/2019 15:33 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
his Emergency Warning is being issued for Howittville, Shepherdson.

There is a bushfire at 30Km Nw Of Dargo that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Howittville.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
This bushfire could impact the Howittville and Shepherson areas any time in the next 2 hours.


AusNet Services statement:

"AusNet Services, the operator of Victoriaís electricity transmission network, is closely monitoring the progress of fires in west Gippsland.

The Bunyip fire is getting close to two transmission lines linking the Latrobe Valley and Melbourne. One of these lines runs north of the fire, and the other to the south, near the freeway.

Firefighters are protecting these transmission lines, both on the ground and through water bombing from the air.

Victoriaís electricity supplies as a whole are not currently being disrupted by the fires. We note that power is also available to Victoria through the transmission network from other sources.

However the situation is unpredictable, and may change quickly. We will continue to work closely with the CFA and Emergency Services to monitor and respond to the situation.

AusNet Services also operates the local electricity distribution network in Gippsland. There are current reports of fires damaging power poles and lines, and outages may occur in fire areas as a result.

There are two other local faults that occurred on Saturday for which repairs are being prevented by fires. One involves about 50 customers around the Tonimbuk area, and the other about 95 customers near Yinnar South and Budgeree. We may not be able to restore supply to these customers until give clearance to enter the areas by the CFA.

We particularly encourage life support customers in fire regions to review and consider enacting their plans for managing in the event of the loss of their power supply.

Updates about power outages within the AusNet Services distribution network in eastern Melbourne and across Gippsland and northeast Victoria are available at www.outagetracker.com.au"
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492983 - 03/03/2019 15:47 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Current aircraft dispatch


_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492991 - 03/03/2019 17:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Massive change to wind change chart

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1492992 - 03/03/2019 17:20 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Distant thunder often here this arvo, but stopped over past 90mins.

Some photos of the Licola fire from the vantage pt of Royal Maffra Golf Club from WNW through to NE (Mt Ben Cruachan is the lump above the white shed in the distance in the first photo.....:







Edited by Petros (03/03/2019 17:21)

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#1492993 - 03/03/2019 17:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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That looks worse now logansi than the previous
Charts for when the actual change hits?

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#1492995 - 03/03/2019 17:28 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Petros.

Yes, change slowed down - I understand it to say only *one* change now (?)

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#1492997 - 03/03/2019 17:30 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep looks like it tb?
But now looks like itís recoiled itself for a little
Longer and looks to come through a lot harder
Than initially thought

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#1492999 - 03/03/2019 17:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Thanks Petros.

Yes, change slowed down - I understand it to say only *one* change now (?)


I reckon you'll cop the ash soon TB.

From the Maffra vantage on the Licola fire, I'd guess that the wind has gone more NW over the fire ground over past 90mins.

I am expecting it to climb up over Mt Ben Cruachan from its NW side by dusk (going by the Vic Emerg app fire sketch).

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#1493000 - 03/03/2019 17:51 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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If it peaks Ben Cruachan it will likely throw embers quite a distance dependent on wind strength/direction.

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#1493001 - 03/03/2019 17:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Had falling ash here from the bunyip fire over the
Past hour or so.

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#1493003 - 03/03/2019 18:48 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Back to radio splatts and thunder audible here from the Licola fire (I'd call it the Huggetts fire now).

Such a big stretch for our fire fighters in SE Vic today. Jeez we appreciate them!

Hearing that "our" fire might experience light northerlies all night now - no change. With this one generating its own storm/weather (has resumed again) - no sure if this is good news for those in Upper Maffra West through to Briagalong tonight frown

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#1493005 - 03/03/2019 18:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Little spots of "ink rain" drops falling here atm (from Bunyip?), ..calm, overcast 32C.


Edited by Petros (03/03/2019 18:53)

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#1493008 - 03/03/2019 18:57 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Itís going to be an interesting night p, according
To the wind change chart logansi posted earlier!
Gusty strong winds for the south and lighter
For the northern areas.

Some of the people in the know are anticipating
That the bunyip and yinnar fires could really move
Big time in and easterly direction, with watch and acts
Being put out in readiness

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#1493009 - 03/03/2019 18:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Yep Dooga, very worrying tonight. ABC radio is doing a great job imo.

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#1493010 - 03/03/2019 19:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Latest wind change chart
I expect the Bunyip fire will be impacted by the wind change within the next 30 mins,

_________________________
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#1493011 - 03/03/2019 19:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Based on Doppler wind change is around Moorabbin Airport, Cranbourne
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#1493013 - 03/03/2019 19:21 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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I reckon a prechange pulse has pushed a temporary westerly over the Licola fire over past 20 mins.

No expert, ....but I think that on the balance of the weather info provided to our region, that the Licola fire will return to a slower progressive march to its SSE from now to midnight?

Good luck to all down Tynong and Jeeralang way frown

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#1493014 - 03/03/2019 19:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Wind change should be impacting on Bunyip fire from about now, looks to at officer right now.
_________________________
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#1493016 - 03/03/2019 19:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Calm right now up here

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#1493018 - 03/03/2019 19:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Has been dead calm here at least past two hours. Heavy smoke, very fine black ash falling(as you predicted P).

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#1493019 - 03/03/2019 20:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Dead calm here, smelly smoke haze has set in here (dont know where from).


Fires aside, one of the last oppressive nights for this summer?


Edited by Petros (03/03/2019 20:04)

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#1493021 - 03/03/2019 20:06 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Going by flightradar24, seems the calm conditions atm has allowed all aircrews a rest?

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#1493022 - 03/03/2019 20:08 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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last light, only aircraft up now are the night time aircraft which are working the Bunyip fire
_________________________
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#1493024 - 03/03/2019 20:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Yep Logansi, 28.5C here (I bet it will be 20C at 7am tomoz), calm, and I'm expecting it to remain calm here and over the Licola fire ground (only that fireground) for the night.

I bet Samboz is spotting a dozer tonight.

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#1493026 - 03/03/2019 20:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Internal page sent out to Dargo group

DARGO FIRE: Situation has suddenly worsened. Require crew to assist with changeover leaving ASAP.
_________________________
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#1493027 - 03/03/2019 20:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Still no wind change here

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#1493028 - 03/03/2019 20:39 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Can see some fire and glow over at yinnar
South fire

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#1493029 - 03/03/2019 20:49 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Def wind looks like itís hit the bunyip fire
Judging by radar. Plume looks to be swirling
Round

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#1493033 - 03/03/2019 20:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Interesting change in perspective for the Licola fire - turning eastward and spotting.

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Blore, Boisdale, Briagolong, Bulldog Junction, Bushy Park, Cobbannah, Culloden, Gillum, Glenfalloch, Glenmaggie, Huggett, Koorool, Maffra West Upper, Monomak, Moornapa, Morgan, Nap Nap Marra, Newry, Stockdale, Toolome, Valencia Creek, Woolenook, Worrowing, Wrathung, Wrixon.

There is a bushfire approximately 15 km north west of Valencia Creek that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in an easterly direction.
Strong winds have significantly increased fire activity producing spot fires ahead of the main fire.
A strong south westerly wind change is now due much later than originally forecast and it now expected to reach the fire area around midnight.
Following this wind change the wind is expected to return to a north westerly influence before dawn. This will push this fire potentially towards private property.

Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly.

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#1493034 - 03/03/2019 21:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Just head the end of a radio transmission reporting major spot over on the Yinnar fire, request more trucks to location with multiple properties underthreat
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#1493058 - 04/03/2019 10:53 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Going by radar ... the Licola fire (and one of the Dargo area fires) appear(s) to be getting a head.

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#1493059 - 04/03/2019 11:18 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Not a good development this early in the day:

This Emergency Warning is being issued for Black Snake Creek, Cowa, Dargo, Hawkhurst, Miowera, Peter the Swede.

There is a bushfire 3 km north of Dargo that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Dargo.
This fire is currently spotting into dry grassland paddocks on private property
Ground crews and heavy machinery are responding to these spot fires as quickly as they can.
Significant aircraft resources have been deployed

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.


Edited by ThunderBob (04/03/2019 11:18)

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#1493062 - 04/03/2019 11:58 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Black Snake Creek, Budgee Budgee, Cowa, Dargo, Hawkhurst, Maguires, Miowera, Peter the Swede, Waterford.

There is a bushfire 3 km north of Dargo that is not yet under control.
The bushfire has travelled south past the Dargo township and has now crossed the Dargo Road approximately 1.6 km to the south. The fire is continuing to travel in a southerly direction.
This fire is currently spotting well ahead of the main fire into private property
Ground crews and heavy machinery are responding to these spot fires as quickly as they can.
Significant aircraft resources have been deployed

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.

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#1493075 - 04/03/2019 16:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Couple of photos from the hotham live cam again



_________________________
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#1493076 - 04/03/2019 16:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1493084 - 04/03/2019 18:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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This Emergency Warning is being issued for Bangholme, Dandenong South.

There is a bushfire at Bangholme that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a northerly direction towards Dandenong South and Bangholme.
The fire started near Harwood Road and Dandenong - Frankston Road in Bangholme.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.
This bushfire could impact Dandenong South and Bangholme near Willow Lodge any time between 6:00pm and 6:30pm.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1493085 - 04/03/2019 18:04 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Unless it rains, I'm afraid everything will be burnt from a line between Licola to Dargo right through to your property NNE of Bairnsdale TB.

Hearing today that its near a dig job to set up an emergency fire pump on the Avon R above Valencia. Lots of stressed property owners all points NW to NE of Maffra, many trailers, caravans, boats etc now assembling around houses around the town.

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#1493089 - 04/03/2019 18:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You are probably right, P. Rain is all that will stop it - and that don't look likely.

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#1493159 - 05/03/2019 09:52 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
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Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3988
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
Firstly sorry for the amount of Photos. This is my view from our place in Bayles of the Bunyip Fires. The photos range from Thursday afternoon showing the Storm that started the fires around Licola through to this morning. A small cell near home that started the fire our son was called too and produced 5.6mm of rain in our gauge.There are 2 photos that are not mine. The first one is of our son who was called to the Bunyip area on Friday afternoon but they were called back to a fire not far from our place which also started from a lightning strike. I saw the CG come down but didn't see the fire start. The Last photo was taken by my wife this morning from where she works just out of Gembrook.We also had a great view of the Licola Pyro on Sunday which went aprox 16 kms up. We had ash fall on Saturday but it was light ash.









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#1493161 - 05/03/2019 09:55 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
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Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3988
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm

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#1493174 - 05/03/2019 12:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Great photos Loo.

Things starting to flare again on N/W-N side of Mt Ben Crucahan going by the huge plume of smoke gone up over past 20 mins. Impressive watching the C130 firebomber descend out of the smoke screen over Maffra as it makes its frequent descending return flights to RAAF East Sale.

RAAF base is also filling the huge 4 engined Jet that is bombing over the Garfield fire, that jet traverses well S of Maffra.

Calm 26C here, a few drops of rain earlier this morning, nothing in the gauge.

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#1493177 - 05/03/2019 13:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Lindsay. Superb photos!

We have had (here and in Bairnsdale) periods of rain so light that the road is dusty 1/2 hour later. I'm actually inclined to think much of it is smoke-induced.

Not impressed, P, that the Licloa fire is stating to pump. It is, actually, showing on the radar.

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#1493183 - 05/03/2019 14:00 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
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Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Am I mistaken -or has the fire on Mount Wellington (listed as: 23Km North West Of Licola)(nth of Sale/Stratford) come from nothing this morning to over 700ha atm? Seems incredible unless either I am mistaken and it has been burning for a while or winds are very strong at that elevation (approx 1500m +) and the fire has moved very, very quickly.


Edited by ThunderBob (05/03/2019 14:00)

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#1493187 - 05/03/2019 14:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Billabong, Black Snake Creek, Budgee Budgee, Cowa, Crooked River, Dargo, Gibbs, Grant, Hawkhurst, Hogtown, Howittville, Maguires, Marthavale, Miowera, Naarun, Peter the Swede, Ryans, Shepherdson, Talbotville, Treasure, Waterford, Winchester, Wongungarra.
This is Emergency Warning replaces the Watch and Act issued this morning.

The Black Creek Snake fire, north west of Dargo is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south easterly direction towards Dargo.
This fire may impact properties north of the Dargo township within the next 2 hours.
Embers from this fire are falling into the Crooked River Valley.
This fire is threatening homes and lives.

You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive.

The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately. It is too late to leave.

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#1493201 - 05/03/2019 15:59 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Boisdale, Briagolong, Bushy Park, Llowalong, Newry, Stockdale, Tinamba West, Valencia Creek.

The Licola-Mt Margaret Track fire, approximately 4 km north west of Valencia Creek, is not yet under control.
Spot fires are starting 6 km ahead of the main fire front.
This bushfire is moving quickly in a south easterly direction towards Valencia Creek.

Leaving now is the safest option, before conditions become too dangerous.
Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.

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#1493205 - 05/03/2019 16:27 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Am I mistaken -or has the fire on Mount Wellington (listed as: 23Km North West Of Licola)(nth of Sale/Stratford) come from nothing this morning to over 700ha atm? Seems incredible unless either I am mistaken and it has been burning for a while or winds are very strong at that elevation (approx 1500m +) and the fire has moved very, very quickly.


It was a new fire but its been over run by the Arbuckle Junction fire which is likely the reason for the error in the size. Hearing that the Licola and Arbuckle Junction fires are likely to join within 24-48 hours.

Lightning yesterday and today has caused many new starts, some which may not be able to be resourced unless they threaten life and property.

2 Additional skycranes have arrived from South Australia and NSW in the last few hours, taking us to 4 skycranes, the whole national fleet thanks to the recent crash. NSW has also provided 2 Large Air Tankers since Saturday and 6 other helitacks along side a number of recon aircraft. Our aviation fleet now sits at 72, 23 above the normal fleet.

4 CFS (SA) Strike Team and 10 RFS (NSW)strike teams have arrived along with firefighters from Queensland and NZ.


Edited by logansi (05/03/2019 16:29)
_________________________
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#1493206 - 05/03/2019 16:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
OH no trough thunderstorms line on way East not looking good of lighting.

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#1493208 - 05/03/2019 16:34 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks for that info, Logansi.

Difficult situation potentially around Maffra and east, north of Prince's Hwy inc Briagalong. Hang in there P, Samboz and everyone.

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#1493243 - 05/03/2019 22:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Locals fire is now 36,000ha now the largest fire of the season.

Random fact for tonight - if Victoriaís aviation fleet right now was an airline it would be the nations 3rd largest, behind Qantas and Virgin. And every single one of those aircraft is currently committed to a job, with a big line up waiting as soon as an aircraft it released. Also massive effort on the ground keeping 72 aircraft in the air flying, a round the clock maintaince program is working at Moorabbin to keep helicopters in the air, ensuring most maintaince is done overnight. Really wish the media would cover stuff like this, because while they may not be on the front line, without them we wouldnít have a front line. Same goes from truck technicians etc. this all comes in March and after a busy summer in the east. For example Helitack 335 is based in Bendigo, on the 17th of January it was deployed to the Timbarra fire, the day it started, this aircraft hasnít been back to Bendigo since and has flown almost every day.



The magnitude of fire ops right now is the biggest since the days following Black Saturday and in some ways larger thanks to the larger number of fires.


Edited by logansi (05/03/2019 22:28)
_________________________
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#1493282 - 06/03/2019 10:02 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Even with the strong SW wind thats set in here, and cool temperature, the fires to the NW of Maffra are still able to stain the NE skyline brown.

It appears that spot fires are dotted along a line about 1/2 way between Mt Ben Cruachan and Lake Glenmaggie. Folk in Valencia creek will still be on edge this morning despite the fires moving more NE'wards.

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#1493293 - 06/03/2019 11:48 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I hope fires slow down is cold air make harder to burn on Gum trees leaves and dry grass still problem can still burn as 16c now in Northern Country.


Edited by chasers addict (06/03/2019 11:48)

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#1493299 - 06/03/2019 12:12 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Extremely interesting and significant observation Logansi about the fire-fighting air fleet. Few would be aware. i'll be telling (earbashing?) people about it.

I think, P, that it needs only some warmth, a bit of drying, and some wind. Will be an active situation across central/north/eastern Gippsland for a while yet.

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#1493300 - 06/03/2019 12:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3944
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Cold air isn't necessarily a barrier to fire if you have strong winds and dry air/fuels (as the Norwegians found out in January a few years back). That said, for most of the existing fires, southwesterly winds will push them further into the forest rather than towards communities.

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#1493348 - 06/03/2019 19:31 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Blair Trewin]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Cold air isn't necessarily a barrier to fire if you have strong winds and dry air/fuels (as the Norwegians found out in January a few years back).


You're right, Blair. A few years ago I was west of Alice Springs on a winter morning: 11C was the temperature and people were being evacuated from Standley Chasm to escape a raging scrub fire that had started earlier that morning. It was simply so dry that temperature was not a necessary element.

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#1493411 - 07/03/2019 11:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Extremely interesting and significant observation Logansi about the fire-fighting air fleet. Few would be aware. i'll be telling (earbashing?) people about it.

I think, P, that it needs only some warmth, a bit of drying, and some wind. Will be an active situation across central/north/eastern Gippsland for a while yet.


Sure is - as some of your probably worked out as a pilot who has family connections and an interested in fire fighting I have a real passion and appreciation for our air crews.

If anyone is interested Riggzy is one of Victoria's senior Air Attack Supervisors and he often posts fantastic photos and little bits of inside info on twitter:

https://twitter.com/Riggzy123


Edited by logansi (07/03/2019 11:38)
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#1493426 - 07/03/2019 15:13 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Well said, Logansi. Will follow him on Tw.

Satellite hotspot info http://incidentalert.com.au/iav4/map.php would indicate that the Licola and the "Mt Wellington" fire to its north are within a couple of Km of joining; the 2 large "Dargo" fires are also not far off joining.

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#1493520 - 08/03/2019 13:32 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lots of talk about the inevitability of the join up around here today.

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#1493521 - 08/03/2019 13:38 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Very uncomfortable wait for folk from Upper Maffra West through to Thunderbob up near Bruthen, with no rain an arrival to the edge of the southern bushline seems inevitable.

Thank God we didnt have this fire complex in place mid January!


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#1493542 - 08/03/2019 16:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah, even late Jan and you'd be looking at something like 2003 and 2006/7 - in saying that this is the most fire we have had in those real remote areas since those fires.
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#1493554 - 08/03/2019 17:36 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You're right P and Logansi. Fortunate current and progged weather is not as bad as might be. Sunday might put a bit of N/NW behind the fires but perhaps Tuesday (though cooler and chance of a shower) has fairly strong N around to SWlies.

Heaviest smoke we've had for this event atm.

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#1493564 - 08/03/2019 19:03 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The thick smoke remained over Maffra all day, kept the daily temp rise to such a slow gradient that seabreeze did not establish. Smoke stink now permeated through all houses in Maffra, can feel a slight sting in my eyes even now at 7pm. Its going to set in all night here imo.

Heard that Esso Longford copped as bad or worse today, had to send heaps of staff(or just contractors?) off home early after lunch due to fire alarms going off all the time.

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#1493672 - 10/03/2019 12:11 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I noticed that the large four engined propeller fire bomber was operating out of Sale RAAF base again yesterday. Presumably dumping on the Gembrook fire?

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#1493677 - 10/03/2019 13:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros
I noticed that the large four engined propeller fire bomber was operating out of Sale RAAF base again yesterday. Presumably dumping on the Gembrook fire?


Cambarville and Howqua yesterday, dargo so far today
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#1493678 - 10/03/2019 14:15 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
The Licola and Mt Wellington fire have now being combined into a single fire.
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#1493680 - 10/03/2019 15:16 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Seems, Logansi, they are chucking a lot of resources at the Cambarville fire - possibly capable of containment (?) and high consequence potential if it made a big run (?)

The Licola/Wellinton fire is a size now! It will get substantial wind behind it on Tuesday.

Smoke here today is horrendous.

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#1493683 - 10/03/2019 15:45 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Just came back to say that we're getting light amount of white ash here atm - surprised - but then, looking at radar, the Licola/Wellington fire seems to be picking up. Some rain also apparent to the west.


Edited by ThunderBob (10/03/2019 15:45)
Edit Reason: typos

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#1493689 - 10/03/2019 16:22 Re: 2018/19 Fire Season Update and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep tb, even today there are some pretty
Strong wind!
Iím in Paynesville but speaking to people back
Down around the valley and there saying
No rain and heaps of wind with the change!

Just canít see any significant rain at all
In the future