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#1469621 - 27/08/2018 17:52 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The "pair of googies" scenario looks to persist. Leaves us to enjoy frosts while watching rain fall to Vics West and East?:


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#1469634 - 28/08/2018 09:13 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The low is spinning up some Southerly winds here, be nice if a bit of moisture was stuck in them.

Models back stepping, we'll get very little by the look of it over the next week.

Common enough scenarios, repeated locally where they start off full of promise and fizzle closer to the date.

Can some learned person tell me (us) why central Gippsland is almost always in a reduced rainfall area on most models, what redirects moist air around, rather than over us ?

eg - Todays WATL 8 day rainfall -

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

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#1469638 - 28/08/2018 11:42 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Central Gippsland is rainshadowed from both the northwest and, to some extent, the southwest.

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#1469658 - 28/08/2018 18:16 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Can vouch for that Blair!

For Central (even more so Northern Central) Gippsland, ....it basically doesn't rain at all, except when a low pressure system can form in Aus SE. Then it pours - all or nothing.

A look at our average rainfall (2.5 inches/month) is basically flat for every month - not many regions in Aus have that. All due to the fact that an ECL can form in SE Aus anytime of the year. ......just hasn't this year frown

Latest AccR shows some decent rainfall help for Vic's NW for this thread ....and they need it big time (if not too late):


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#1469679 - 29/08/2018 07:45 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks BT and P, will take that on board.

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#1469689 - 29/08/2018 11:43 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks good the wet coming.

The High Pressure pattern not looking good is shifting more south of Country is push upper low down.

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#1469706 - 29/08/2018 20:42 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah hope that happens for the NW but will wait till it actually happens been so dry there on 50 to 80mm so far this year which is just insanely dry.

Active few days ahead after of the cold mornings
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1469721 - 30/08/2018 07:20 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
E/Sale BOM, min @ 0535hrs this morn -3.8C

Bairnsdale, " " 0454hrs " " -2.5C.

Little fresh this morning, local ABC talking of school buses at Goongerah, between Orbost and Delegate, not having school buses thru' this morning due to heavy icing on roads/bridges.

Reminiscing : I can remember several consecutive nights -5C and colder near Bendoc in that district where a bush waterhole was so frozen over that a mate and I walked securely onto the middle of it, the hole was a good 20M indiameter.

Certainly COLD country, fortunately those mornings were followed by clear sunny days.


Edited by samboz (30/08/2018 07:21)

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#1469725 - 30/08/2018 09:26 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, same over here, .....and will stay cold till later with the arrival of cloud.

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#1469766 - 30/08/2018 22:30 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Dry air stopping any good rain falling but better rain moving in from W NW Vic now will spread through overnight.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1469776 - 31/08/2018 07:53 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Concur with E/Sale BOM with 1.6mm o/night.

Much warmer night, min 9C, mild morning.

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#1469780 - 31/08/2018 08:53 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep very mild night here too, ....and 2mm from a period of light steady rain around 9pm.

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#1469787 - 31/08/2018 09:56 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Forgot to empty gauge after last rain (oops!) so can only estimate 1 -2mm last night. As Samboz and P have said, much warmer night -esp compared to previous night which produced a solid frost.

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#1469810 - 31/08/2018 13:40 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This system is performing better than most model expectations for Gippsland, nice steady rain has returned since late morning, added another 3mm to the 2mm recieved last night, so far, and hopefully a bit more to come?

Models performed well in predicting this present setup:



I reckon there is a chance for a small cut-off low to form over N Vic this afternoon and deliver more rain overnight, ...given the moisture currently sitting over SE Aus and cold air aloft. Water vapour image currently shows:



If it goes our way in N Gippsland, it would be accompanied by a light SE'ly air stream.

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#1469814 - 31/08/2018 14:29 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good post P, thanks - very informative smile

Dropped 5C from 1030-1330 when it swung from N/E to W, bought some more rain, another 4.4mm since 0900, very nice.

ACCESS has an E/Coast C.O.L. by 2200hrs today, be good to see it settle and not wander of E to NZ.

GFS talking 31mm for Sale on its 10 day- (At the moment) -

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?gfs,rainAccu,-37.810,148.085,7,i:pressure,m:cBEakgh

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#1469841 - 31/08/2018 19:00 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.

That rain ramped up to steady and continued to late arvo and boosted the rain gauge to 10.5mm in past 24hrs when tipped out just before, beating the received 12 days ago, to become the highest 24hr rain tally here since mid Feb smile My mate in Stockdale wants to take all credit because he bought a semi load of water yesterday wink

Interestingly, with the baro currently at 995 hPa, also becomes our "lowest low" since mid April.

Synoptics for tonight remain interesting for Gippsland, if rain returns and there's a hint of SE/E out there, could get even luckier?:



....and if anyone else is a fan of those "impossible to predict" meso low pressure systems that sometimes cut off in SE Aus, I bet they would be watching the radar closely tonight given the water vapour available in this corner of the world?:


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#1469856 - 31/08/2018 21:05 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.


Made it back to Maffra with ample timing to a latitude of caffeine laced drinks, confess to chips too!

Steady rain on departure of WAYNEYS car park smile

Gauge here @ 7mm for event pre sunset.

Wed 5/9 looking very cyclable with all
"go" conditions- rain/wind/temp.

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#1469883 - 01/09/2018 08:48 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hi Samboz, might have seen your mob out near Tinamba late yest morning. Today I dont want to even see the word "bicycle" .....a horrible apparatus of torture.

Re rain, same over here, last nights fronts simply swept up all the low pressure knots over Aus SE into one low, and then shipped it off to NZ. No more rain, so 10.5mm for us.

.....leaves us to a cold day at golf (where at least a bloke can remain un-seated!).

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#1469887 - 01/09/2018 09:09 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Saw two riders on Rail Trail @ Kingscotts Lane.

Get wet ? Torture LOL grin

Wondered why ACCESS looked so different today, certainly rolled it off to the E.

Bairnsdale radar still down, would have been handy for planning this AM,


Edited by samboz (01/09/2018 09:11)

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#1469888 - 01/09/2018 09:23 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep that was Petros getting goaded along by Charlie Mac.

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