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#1469298 - 21/08/2018 19:48 Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
A low over the bight will become cut off in coming days and drift inland before it reaches the coast in Northern NSW and slips down the coast delivering much needed rain to the eastern half of NSW.

The big question is what's in it for us, from Thursday Victoria will see some warm spring like day's, it then depends on the timing of the next front and whether it interacts with the cut off low slipping down the east coast. As we've discussed already models are struggling with the timing. And offer a wide range of possibilities from low falls to some quite significant falls.

GFS:



EC:


AccessG:



For me I feel EC has been the most consistent over the last few days but accessg shows what this system could deliver!

Anyway enjoy the sun and warmth over the coming days!


Edited by logansi (21/08/2018 19:49)
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#1469301 - 21/08/2018 22:43 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Don't ask how the thread ended up with 'All or Nothing end to Wind' should be winter lol
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#1469307 - 22/08/2018 07:33 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good thread logansi, summary in OP is excellent!

I sometimes think EC is pretty "iffy", GFS does "OK" but over does it re rain and particularly closer to the day in question, ACCESS is "best".

YMMV smile

Good rainfall in the next fortnight would be handy to all farmers of East Aus, fingers crossed for them.

Heard rain regularly on the roof o/night, expected better but only ended up with 1mm. E/Sale BOM only a few K's (east) of home had 3mm.

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#1469310 - 22/08/2018 10:10 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
SW wind as low Clouds is stalling shifting N/NW wind ..so trapping clouds more likely central Victoria to East Victoria. Time enjoy sunny days.

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#1469311 - 22/08/2018 10:34 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good thread Logansi.

We got an unexpected (to me) 1mm here last night, will help - despite fresh westerly all day yesterday.

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#1469339 - 22/08/2018 18:05 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting when two cut off low pressure going wet NSW and SW QLD as Friday 29th the second cut off is stronger seem early spring pattern.

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#1469341 - 22/08/2018 20:07 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tonights model runs: Access has significantly cut back while EC and GFS have upgraded - I hope your wrong about ACCESS being the best samboz, for today atleast. EC also has a second very strong low coming in right behind it but have little confidence in this.

Expect models will have better chance at getting timing right once the front coming up from Antarctica hits the WA coast during Sunday.

Can't wait for tomorrow's sun - although it'll make me even more eager for some real warmth. Although considering i'm more than likely moving to Adelaide around Christmas i'm sure i'll get enough of that in summer.


Edited by logansi (22/08/2018 20:10)
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#1469360 - 23/08/2018 10:40 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Light frost here this morning, looking to become a nice sunny day here.

Talking about early spring, a bit of sunshine yesterday afternoon created several weak cumulus turkey necks around this area - the first time this side of winter.

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#1469371 - 23/08/2018 18:11 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We'll end up with a pair of googy eggs surrounding us next week according to CMC's latest:


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#1469385 - 23/08/2018 20:41 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Eye's i assume you mean?

Lovely day here in Melbourne today bit of cloud in the afternoon with tomorrow looking even better

Models starting to agree now that this will mostly be a miss for us here in Victoria but who knows what tomorrow's runs will show!







If it is the case attention will need to turn to the next cold front, early model runs have a quite significant system moving in around the late next week but as this one has shown - who knows what it'll bring!
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#1469391 - 24/08/2018 07:41 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Big low over Vic next Friday (31st) still looks the
best bet, nothing much before then really.

Unfortunately we can't change the weather as often as
we change the countries leaders (bldy disgraceful)!

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#1469399 - 24/08/2018 09:36 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, big low looking likely to replace the currently developing weak cut off low in SA at present.

EC showing the tropics more active over Aus top end later next week, allowing moisture to advect down through Qld?:



Edited by Petros (24/08/2018 09:36)

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#1469407 - 24/08/2018 11:46 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heavy rain is looming next Thursday 30th when strong cut off Low move over inland from SA to VIC..

Middle half of Queensland to Most NSW t oVIC in North Country and East SA as rain thicken Friday 31st bring wet soaking...

Hope dry NSW Farmers say good rains..

Hope the Chart does not change..

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#1469417 - 24/08/2018 15:57 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Certainly looking promising ca grin

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#1469488 - 25/08/2018 17:21 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Still looking ok but downgrades have started now for that system now too with rain mostly now focused on the western slopes on the ranges and coastal areas considering the event this thread is focused on has turned to a few showers my confidence in even that is low
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#1469489 - 25/08/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
AccessG



Just a few days ago AccessG had widespread 20mm+ falls and 50mm+ on the ranges
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#1469567 - 26/08/2018 17:48 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Happy to report a fifth wind free day in a row here today, .....and mostly sunny with 17-18C temps. Baro eased back to 1014 hPa.

On the Baro front, Gippsland has not had higher pressure than 1032 hPa (June 26th - and only for a day) for the whole winter to date. We typically experience several days at 1040 hPa, and a couple of times over? For me, I put it down to an early spring (the wind of June-August) - but leaves the magnificent snow season unexplained!

....and on the snow season, has now almost guaranteed a full Lake Glenmaggie for the Macalister irrigation district (dairy region N Gippsland) for this coming summer despite drought conditions S of the ranges.

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#1469569 - 26/08/2018 18:30 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Not a significant rain signal for Vic, ...but AccR's latest run is delivering memorable synoptics!:


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#1469612 - 27/08/2018 12:59 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lowest level snow reported at Tassie this morning. Has gone cold cloudy windy here after a mild sunny patch earlier this morning.

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#1469620 - 27/08/2018 17:28 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Found 1.0mm in the gauge from showers at some stage last night. Currently cold with light SSW'ly.

Mt Baw Baw currently at -5C atm! - looks like another snow top up over next 48 hours to take the snow season to memorable depth tallies.


Edited by Petros (27/08/2018 17:34)

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