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#1469298 - 21/08/2018 19:48 Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
A low over the bight will become cut off in coming days and drift inland before it reaches the coast in Northern NSW and slips down the coast delivering much needed rain to the eastern half of NSW.

The big question is what's in it for us, from Thursday Victoria will see some warm spring like day's, it then depends on the timing of the next front and whether it interacts with the cut off low slipping down the east coast. As we've discussed already models are struggling with the timing. And offer a wide range of possibilities from low falls to some quite significant falls.

GFS:



EC:


AccessG:



For me I feel EC has been the most consistent over the last few days but accessg shows what this system could deliver!

Anyway enjoy the sun and warmth over the coming days!


Edited by logansi (21/08/2018 19:49)
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#1469301 - 21/08/2018 22:43 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Don't ask how the thread ended up with 'All or Nothing end to Wind' should be winter lol
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#1469307 - 22/08/2018 07:33 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good thread logansi, summary in OP is excellent!

I sometimes think EC is pretty "iffy", GFS does "OK" but over does it re rain and particularly closer to the day in question, ACCESS is "best".

YMMV smile

Good rainfall in the next fortnight would be handy to all farmers of East Aus, fingers crossed for them.

Heard rain regularly on the roof o/night, expected better but only ended up with 1mm. E/Sale BOM only a few K's (east) of home had 3mm.

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#1469310 - 22/08/2018 10:10 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
SW wind as low Clouds is stalling shifting N/NW wind ..so trapping clouds more likely central Victoria to East Victoria. Time enjoy sunny days.

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#1469311 - 22/08/2018 10:34 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good thread Logansi.

We got an unexpected (to me) 1mm here last night, will help - despite fresh westerly all day yesterday.

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#1469339 - 22/08/2018 18:05 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting when two cut off low pressure going wet NSW and SW QLD as Friday 29th the second cut off is stronger seem early spring pattern.

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#1469341 - 22/08/2018 20:07 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tonights model runs: Access has significantly cut back while EC and GFS have upgraded - I hope your wrong about ACCESS being the best samboz, for today atleast. EC also has a second very strong low coming in right behind it but have little confidence in this.

Expect models will have better chance at getting timing right once the front coming up from Antarctica hits the WA coast during Sunday.

Can't wait for tomorrow's sun - although it'll make me even more eager for some real warmth. Although considering i'm more than likely moving to Adelaide around Christmas i'm sure i'll get enough of that in summer.


Edited by logansi (22/08/2018 20:10)
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#1469360 - 23/08/2018 10:40 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Light frost here this morning, looking to become a nice sunny day here.

Talking about early spring, a bit of sunshine yesterday afternoon created several weak cumulus turkey necks around this area - the first time this side of winter.

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#1469371 - 23/08/2018 18:11 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We'll end up with a pair of googy eggs surrounding us next week according to CMC's latest:


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#1469385 - 23/08/2018 20:41 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
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Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Eye's i assume you mean?

Lovely day here in Melbourne today bit of cloud in the afternoon with tomorrow looking even better

Models starting to agree now that this will mostly be a miss for us here in Victoria but who knows what tomorrow's runs will show!







If it is the case attention will need to turn to the next cold front, early model runs have a quite significant system moving in around the late next week but as this one has shown - who knows what it'll bring!
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#1469391 - 24/08/2018 07:41 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Big low over Vic next Friday (31st) still looks the
best bet, nothing much before then really.

Unfortunately we can't change the weather as often as
we change the countries leaders (bldy disgraceful)!

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#1469399 - 24/08/2018 09:36 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, big low looking likely to replace the currently developing weak cut off low in SA at present.

EC showing the tropics more active over Aus top end later next week, allowing moisture to advect down through Qld?:



Edited by Petros (24/08/2018 09:36)

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#1469407 - 24/08/2018 11:46 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heavy rain is looming next Thursday 30th when strong cut off Low move over inland from SA to VIC..

Middle half of Queensland to Most NSW t oVIC in North Country and East SA as rain thicken Friday 31st bring wet soaking...

Hope dry NSW Farmers say good rains..

Hope the Chart does not change..

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#1469417 - 24/08/2018 15:57 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Certainly looking promising ca grin

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#1469488 - 25/08/2018 17:21 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
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Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Still looking ok but downgrades have started now for that system now too with rain mostly now focused on the western slopes on the ranges and coastal areas considering the event this thread is focused on has turned to a few showers my confidence in even that is low
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#1469489 - 25/08/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1160
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
AccessG



Just a few days ago AccessG had widespread 20mm+ falls and 50mm+ on the ranges
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#1469567 - 26/08/2018 17:48 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Happy to report a fifth wind free day in a row here today, .....and mostly sunny with 17-18C temps. Baro eased back to 1014 hPa.

On the Baro front, Gippsland has not had higher pressure than 1032 hPa (June 26th - and only for a day) for the whole winter to date. We typically experience several days at 1040 hPa, and a couple of times over? For me, I put it down to an early spring (the wind of June-August) - but leaves the magnificent snow season unexplained!

....and on the snow season, has now almost guaranteed a full Lake Glenmaggie for the Macalister irrigation district (dairy region N Gippsland) for this coming summer despite drought conditions S of the ranges.

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#1469569 - 26/08/2018 18:30 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Not a significant rain signal for Vic, ...but AccR's latest run is delivering memorable synoptics!:


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#1469612 - 27/08/2018 12:59 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lowest level snow reported at Tassie this morning. Has gone cold cloudy windy here after a mild sunny patch earlier this morning.

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#1469620 - 27/08/2018 17:28 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Found 1.0mm in the gauge from showers at some stage last night. Currently cold with light SSW'ly.

Mt Baw Baw currently at -5C atm! - looks like another snow top up over next 48 hours to take the snow season to memorable depth tallies.


Edited by Petros (27/08/2018 17:34)

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#1469621 - 27/08/2018 17:52 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The "pair of googies" scenario looks to persist. Leaves us to enjoy frosts while watching rain fall to Vics West and East?:


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#1469634 - 28/08/2018 09:13 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The low is spinning up some Southerly winds here, be nice if a bit of moisture was stuck in them.

Models back stepping, we'll get very little by the look of it over the next week.

Common enough scenarios, repeated locally where they start off full of promise and fizzle closer to the date.

Can some learned person tell me (us) why central Gippsland is almost always in a reduced rainfall area on most models, what redirects moist air around, rather than over us ?

eg - Todays WATL 8 day rainfall -

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

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#1469638 - 28/08/2018 11:42 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Central Gippsland is rainshadowed from both the northwest and, to some extent, the southwest.

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#1469658 - 28/08/2018 18:16 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Can vouch for that Blair!

For Central (even more so Northern Central) Gippsland, ....it basically doesn't rain at all, except when a low pressure system can form in Aus SE. Then it pours - all or nothing.

A look at our average rainfall (2.5 inches/month) is basically flat for every month - not many regions in Aus have that. All due to the fact that an ECL can form in SE Aus anytime of the year. ......just hasn't this year frown

Latest AccR shows some decent rainfall help for Vic's NW for this thread ....and they need it big time (if not too late):


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#1469679 - 29/08/2018 07:45 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks BT and P, will take that on board.

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#1469689 - 29/08/2018 11:43 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2684
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks good the wet coming.

The High Pressure pattern not looking good is shifting more south of Country is push upper low down.

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#1469706 - 29/08/2018 20:42 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah hope that happens for the NW but will wait till it actually happens been so dry there on 50 to 80mm so far this year which is just insanely dry.

Active few days ahead after of the cold mornings
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#1469721 - 30/08/2018 07:20 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
E/Sale BOM, min @ 0535hrs this morn -3.8C

Bairnsdale, " " 0454hrs " " -2.5C.

Little fresh this morning, local ABC talking of school buses at Goongerah, between Orbost and Delegate, not having school buses thru' this morning due to heavy icing on roads/bridges.

Reminiscing : I can remember several consecutive nights -5C and colder near Bendoc in that district where a bush waterhole was so frozen over that a mate and I walked securely onto the middle of it, the hole was a good 20M indiameter.

Certainly COLD country, fortunately those mornings were followed by clear sunny days.


Edited by samboz (30/08/2018 07:21)

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#1469725 - 30/08/2018 09:26 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, same over here, .....and will stay cold till later with the arrival of cloud.

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#1469766 - 30/08/2018 22:30 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Dry air stopping any good rain falling but better rain moving in from W NW Vic now will spread through overnight.
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1469776 - 31/08/2018 07:53 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Concur with E/Sale BOM with 1.6mm o/night.

Much warmer night, min 9C, mild morning.

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#1469780 - 31/08/2018 08:53 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep very mild night here too, ....and 2mm from a period of light steady rain around 9pm.

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#1469787 - 31/08/2018 09:56 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Forgot to empty gauge after last rain (oops!) so can only estimate 1 -2mm last night. As Samboz and P have said, much warmer night -esp compared to previous night which produced a solid frost.

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#1469810 - 31/08/2018 13:40 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This system is performing better than most model expectations for Gippsland, nice steady rain has returned since late morning, added another 3mm to the 2mm recieved last night, so far, and hopefully a bit more to come?

Models performed well in predicting this present setup:



I reckon there is a chance for a small cut-off low to form over N Vic this afternoon and deliver more rain overnight, ...given the moisture currently sitting over SE Aus and cold air aloft. Water vapour image currently shows:



If it goes our way in N Gippsland, it would be accompanied by a light SE'ly air stream.

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#1469814 - 31/08/2018 14:29 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good post P, thanks - very informative smile

Dropped 5C from 1030-1330 when it swung from N/E to W, bought some more rain, another 4.4mm since 0900, very nice.

ACCESS has an E/Coast C.O.L. by 2200hrs today, be good to see it settle and not wander of E to NZ.

GFS talking 31mm for Sale on its 10 day- (At the moment) -

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?gfs,rainAccu,-37.810,148.085,7,i:pressure,m:cBEakgh

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#1469841 - 31/08/2018 19:00 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.

That rain ramped up to steady and continued to late arvo and boosted the rain gauge to 10.5mm in past 24hrs when tipped out just before, beating the received 12 days ago, to become the highest 24hr rain tally here since mid Feb smile My mate in Stockdale wants to take all credit because he bought a semi load of water yesterday wink

Interestingly, with the baro currently at 995 hPa, also becomes our "lowest low" since mid April.

Synoptics for tonight remain interesting for Gippsland, if rain returns and there's a hint of SE/E out there, could get even luckier?:



....and if anyone else is a fan of those "impossible to predict" meso low pressure systems that sometimes cut off in SE Aus, I bet they would be watching the radar closely tonight given the water vapour available in this corner of the world?:


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#1469856 - 31/08/2018 21:05 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.


Made it back to Maffra with ample timing to a latitude of caffeine laced drinks, confess to chips too!

Steady rain on departure of WAYNEYS car park smile

Gauge here @ 7mm for event pre sunset.

Wed 5/9 looking very cyclable with all
"go" conditions- rain/wind/temp.

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#1469883 - 01/09/2018 08:48 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hi Samboz, might have seen your mob out near Tinamba late yest morning. Today I dont want to even see the word "bicycle" .....a horrible apparatus of torture.

Re rain, same over here, last nights fronts simply swept up all the low pressure knots over Aus SE into one low, and then shipped it off to NZ. No more rain, so 10.5mm for us.

.....leaves us to a cold day at golf (where at least a bloke can remain un-seated!).

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#1469887 - 01/09/2018 09:09 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Saw two riders on Rail Trail @ Kingscotts Lane.

Get wet ? Torture LOL grin

Wondered why ACCESS looked so different today, certainly rolled it off to the E.

Bairnsdale radar still down, would have been handy for planning this AM,


Edited by samboz (01/09/2018 09:11)

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#1469888 - 01/09/2018 09:23 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep that was Petros getting goaded along by Charlie Mac.

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#1469950 - 02/09/2018 11:53 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7535
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had several showers earlier this morning, but rainshaddowed by Tassie now.

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#1469972 - 02/09/2018 20:35 Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Emptied out 8mm this morn for event, then got another 1mm round lunch time, wind dropped off mid arvo', sprinkled some light rain but virtually dry after lunch.

Some nice weather next week, cold mornings though grin

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