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#1469380 - 23/08/2018 19:51 SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
(A continuation of discussion that has been occurring in the Day-to-day thread about the approaching event)

An upper low and trough combo will help bring widespread moderate rain and the chance of isolated thunderstorms to the SEQLD/NENSW region. There is potential for some spots to accumulate more than 50mm if the locally heavier falls come to fruition (most likely west of the ranges, but a couple of coastal places might get lucky too).
Unfortunately there hasn't been much for us to talk about weather-wise this winter.
Hopefully it will bring at least a little short-term relief for any struggling farmers.

Btw, if you've been having trouble with loading pages etc. on the forum since last night you're not the only one experiencing the issues. :-)


Edited by Seabreeze (25/08/2018 21:14)
Edit Reason: removed the word 'possible'
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1469387 - 23/08/2018 22:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 942
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
I知 excited!
I was thinking with the humidity so low and soil so dry that rain was over until the trades kick in during February, I知 I知 right we致e had no rain since the end of June.
Had a bushfire near here at the start of the week.
Roof clean, screens clean, grass fertilised and ready to plant!
I知 banking on 10-20mm would love to see 50+

Some nice fluffy clouds around this arvo, watching radar and waiting.

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#1469389 - 23/08/2018 22:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 942
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
First rain in Caloundra!

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#1469392 - 24/08/2018 07:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 37
Loc: Toowoomba
Just the moisture in the air is such a nice change here in Toowoomba. Has not penetrated far inland yet however.

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#1469393 - 24/08/2018 08:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3308
Loc: Buderim
Shower clouds out to sea and some obvious signs of instability in clouds hanging over the coastal ranges here. I think its going to be a nice little rain system on the coast, and probably for the ranges as well. For August at least.

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#1469398 - 24/08/2018 09:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The main upper trough is so far west dont think we gonna see anything interesting til sunday

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#1469401 - 24/08/2018 09:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3308
Loc: Buderim
From GFS it looks like a low level convergence line/front sets up inland of the range very early Sunday AM. Upper divergence ahead of the upper low enhances the lift near the border, which becomes the focus of the heaviest convection and this moves east to south east for the best rains northern NSW or just near the border, reaching the coast middle of the day and clearing early arvo. There is some higher cape - up to 500 so only low to moderate further north towards Fraser Island, so the question to me is how much general instability/back building might push this heavier convection further north. Access suggests rain spreading a bit further north and even hints at a small and short lived area of low pressure popping up near Fraser.

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#1469406 - 24/08/2018 11:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
Yeah, the latest runs from a number of models have slightly delayed the timing of the main peak of the rainfall for coastal SE QLD until during the daytime on Sunday (although some shower or thunderstorm activity possible before then).
Basically the main peak looks short and sharp.

Fair bit of cold air moving in aloft with the system so this may help thunderstorms and small hail for any areas which don't get too saturated aloft.

And yeah, current runs have some interesting soundings on Sunday around regions like the WBB region. Deep moisture with nice backing with height/turning, moderate instability and low level shear. I don't know if it'll be enough to help spin up any rotational fun up there but the dynamics look interesting anyway.

If you go by the current runs, still looking like the best dynamics/upmotion will be around the NWSP region of NSW and adjoining areas near, and south of the border... the same areas which are currently showing up with the most amount of rainfall in a number of the models.
Having said that, even though coastal SE QLD may not be in the best area with this system, the moist onshore flow and associated decent moisture near the coast as well as the background forcing from the system may help things a bit.

Still think the best falls will be around that northeast interior of NSW with mainly modest falls elsewhere but some locations could get significantly higher or lower amounts than the forecast range depending on any embedded heavier convection.

1st graphic - EC totals via windy.com
2nd graphic - FV3 totals
3rd graphic - multimodel accumulations for Brisbane










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#1469410 - 24/08/2018 13:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 221
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
I知 sure DD will back me up.......sure is nice to hear rain on the roof and thunder rumbling around the mountains.
Sure hope everyone gets a little splash of the wet stuff.

Cheers

Tim

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#1469411 - 24/08/2018 14:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Timbuck]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 289
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Sure do Timbuck, been a couple light spits, still not enough for a dust settler, but by the look on the radar, it's on it's way. Few rumbles earlier, hope that continues into the arvo and evening.
BRING IT ON
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1469412 - 24/08/2018 15:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 341
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Forum, particularly NSW seems to be slow loading.

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#1469413 - 24/08/2018 15:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3308
Loc: Buderim
Black core NW of Beaudesert with doppler evidence of rotation. Quite small though. Probably hail?

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#1469414 - 24/08/2018 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1134
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
love that winter pea size hail , i rekn a few might see some over the next cpl of days. Hope im one.

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#1469418 - 24/08/2018 16:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 465
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: BIG T
love that winter pea size hail , i rekn a few might see some over the next cpl of days. Hope im one.
already seen a report of small hail a few hours ago out Beenleigh way, might be a few more coming soon.
Nothing for Salisbury yet, not even a spit of rain

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#1469419 - 24/08/2018 16:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
There's been a number of reports and photos of small hail from earlier this afternoon including from areas such as Sunnybank, Logan Village, Gold Coast, etc as well as in the Northern Rivers district.


Edited by Ken Kato (24/08/2018 16:12)

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#1469420 - 24/08/2018 17:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 6
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Airservices weather camera looking great at Archerfield AP

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=archerfield-airport

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#1469421 - 24/08/2018 17:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Nic_Bri]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 465
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Nic_Bri
Airservices weather camera looking great at Archerfield AP

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=archerfield-airport
I'm looking out the front verandah at that currently, still hasn't so much as spat to rain here yet though....oh so close, but not a drop

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#1469422 - 24/08/2018 17:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Namarrkun]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 6
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Yes Namarrkun I was at work at Archerfield AP earlier today and you could smell the rain but also not a drop!

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#1469423 - 24/08/2018 17:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cant remember last time seeing big fat juicy clouds to our south like these. Many months ago. Come this way baby!

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#1469424 - 24/08/2018 17:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 465
Loc: Salisbury
Seeing lightning out over back of Archerfield direction and hearing thunder now

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