Page 3 of 5 < 1 2 3 4 5 >
Topic Options
#1469473 - 25/08/2018 15:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Agreed regarding early/late arrivals.
When it does, can someone suggest which direction cells will be moving?
Yesterday (around here) they were from the sw, today from the ne.

Any embedded thunderstorms should be from a NW or NNW direction (as opposed to a mainly northerly direction at the moment).
The steering flow strengthens significantly by tomorrow so if there's any cells, they should move more rapidly than they have been.

Shallow cells should be from a direction with a more northerly component while taller ones from a more westerly direction.
Of course if the odd severe cell manages to develop, it'll diverge from these directions.

The most obvious complicating factor for thunderstorm potential tomorrow is all the cloud cover and precip.
If the strong forcing from the approaching system and a sufficiently early (afternoon) easing of cloud cover/precip can overcome the inhibiting effect of the earlier cloud cover, thunderstorms, some severe (due to strong shear) with hail, etc are possible.
If the cloud cover/precip inhibits things too much, any storms would be pretty localised to non-existent. We wait and see.

Top
#1469474 - 25/08/2018 15:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7230
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow, look at all the lightning on the tracker. Been a while since we've seen that.

Top
#1469475 - 25/08/2018 15:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Good stuff Ken, one thing that I'm happy about that the system is slow moving and probably best placed where it is for the people 100 times more desperate for rain than coastal folk are. So lets just hope the country farms that need it get some relief.

Top
#1469476 - 25/08/2018 15:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Starting to look like some rain and storms for me ,Might go out and bang the dust out of the rain gauge lol. Its cloudy yay.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1469477 - 25/08/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 942
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeah agreed SteveO, I was about to complain about the direction of rain and that we donít get great rain from that way... but as long as those who need it get it what does it really matter!
Tim

Top
#1469478 - 25/08/2018 15:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
We will get some.

Top
#1469481 - 25/08/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Increasing cloud all day, very dark to our NW earlier, dumped its load west of Esk & only light rain atm. Lovely sound & smell.

Top
#1469482 - 25/08/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Good news for out west happy to miss out if farmers out west can get it
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1469484 - 25/08/2018 16:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1181
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Yeah, well Iím hoping today wasnít the day. One model is going for tomorrow for us so weíll see. Iíd really hoped it would be more widespread out west for the farmers and nsw, at least to build up some moisture for a future event. Fingers crossed itís just later than expected.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-361.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-182

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1469485 - 25/08/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
Originally Posted By: Lani
Yeah, well Iím hoping today wasnít the day. One model is going for tomorrow for us so weíll see. Iíd really hoped it would be more widespread out west for the farmers and nsw, at least to build up some moisture for a future event. Fingers crossed itís just later than expected.

The consensus for awhile among most models for the timing of the main rainfall your area has been for tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like lasting that long though - basically short and sharp so accumulations probably won't be that big unless you're lucky enough to get under a thunderstorm. There may be some activity leading up to it though.

Looks fairly dry for awhile after this system clears out except perhaps for the end of next week.

Top
#1469494 - 25/08/2018 19:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well a few days ago i would never of belived the radar would look like it does now
Nothing ness
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1469496 - 25/08/2018 19:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Fairly cool night here cloud cover minimal. I get the feeling that the setup looks right but the surface temp is still mild being still winter. There looks to be no caping at all with the profiles will be interesting to see whats happening tomorrow morning. Abit hesitant to look at too much more data as there does not seem to be a bullseye it could be anywhere.

Top
#1469502 - 25/08/2018 21:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1046
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yup, the activity out west looks to be dying off a bit too. Not sure if this is a night thing or what, but I can now see us receiving almost nothing from this event. Still waiting for our first measurable rain for August 2018.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

Top
#1469504 - 25/08/2018 21:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
Most of the models Iíve seen this afternoon still suggest around 10 to 30mm for many locations in SE QLD although some locations could get significantly more or less than that depending on embedded convection.

Top
#1469505 - 25/08/2018 21:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1322
Loc: toowoomba
Tomorrow was always going to be the day we would get the most rain especially the morning to early afternoon.

Top
#1469508 - 25/08/2018 22:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
The coastal storms / heavier showers along parts of the north coast overnight brought some decent localised falls. Yamba received the most with 72mm. The Coffs Harbour area also did well with gauges around there recording over 50mm.
4.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here from light rain at times last night.
Tomorrow's passing rainband looks like bringing anything from around 5 to 20mm here, depending on whether we only get light rain or are in the path of moderate rain.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

Top
#1469510 - 26/08/2018 07:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Morning all, 5mm overnight and more to come I hope. Was counting on 20mm so we dont need to buy water.

Top
#1469511 - 26/08/2018 07:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1586
Loc: Australia
Rain Hasn't stopped all night and into the morning on the Gold Coast.

Top
#1469512 - 26/08/2018 07:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1488
Loc: Kingaroy
*waves* The rains is here. Hmm.

Anyway, forgive my apparent absolute ignorance but wouldn't now be the optimum time to seed clouds?
I know there's the theory around previous floods etc & I refuse to talk politics on this; but from a scientific perspective only, wouldn't seeding offer more precip to at least someone? We haven't had viable clouds much until now, I'm not sure I understand the reluctance.
As I said - no politics please, just factual answers.
_________________________
Also, please note that sentences can also end in full stops. The exclamation mark can be overused.
Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

Top
#1469515 - 26/08/2018 07:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
You could be right there Kazz I'm no expert but they do in other countries.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (26/08/2018 07:51)

Top
Page 3 of 5 < 1 2 3 4 5 >


Who's Online
2 registered (batty, 1 invisible), 325 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
aurbina1, Justin Case
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23981 Topics
1501187 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image