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#1469716 - 30/08/2018 00:16 SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Thought I'd get a topic up, bit late but needs it.

Strong low and upper low combination in the Bight atm with a lot of elevated showers and thunderstorms developing from massive dynamical forcing off the jet ripping over the top, these are forming quite freely with extra assistance from a strengthening nocturnal LLJ (certainly very windy outside atm, gusty, typical of the LLJ caused by mass ascent aloft)

Generally most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain over the Bight/West Coast and Eyre Peninsula where forcing is greatest and there is a bit more colder air aloft, plus a bit more moisture however there is a possibility of a rogue cell or two wandering closer to Adelaide in the wee hours, already a couple made it to Yorke Pen in a weaker state so keep eyes peeled or ears for those sleeping but most of it will probably stay west before weakening near dawn.

Then tomorrow mostly see some sort of patchy mid level rain, certainly more over the West Coast near stronger storms as they decay to rain but dribs and drabs further east although models hint at a better formed rainband over the eastern border regions of the Riverland and into NW VIC but a big rain shadow over the western riverland and Mallee......A stronger cold pool aloft with one or two embedded sfc troughs will move in late thursday into friday with increasing instability and again the chance of showers and more isolated but lower based thunderstorms. These cells won't be moving as fast and will have a lot more beef to them so any cores that do hit will be heavy. But increasing showers into the overnight hours thurs night and into friday as the tail of the low starts to kick up.

Friday the tail of the low moves through with a spate of showers, models vary the position, EC takes closest to Adelaide the others more north but a burst of showers friday morning easing later leaving stream showers in a moderating WSW to SW flow.

Rainfall generally 8-15mm for southern ag areas, 25-40mm hills in wetter spots, further inland be a mix of 3-8mm for most areas but potentially 10-15mm over parts of the West Coast and southern EP.

TS cool

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#1469717 - 30/08/2018 00:51 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Impressive helicity values as a result of that LLJ tonight...if only we had a gulf of Mexico starting roughly where Blinman is haha.

Hoping for 15mm here in Clare, could see more though depending on storms and what the wake of the system does. Looks like a half decent event for the mid north going by pretty well all models, more so the upper parts but not holding my breath given this year.

Crops on the western slopes of the Clare Valley look reasonably good like they will in any year but further out to the north and east aint looking so flash bordering on horrible in some areas, a two year streak of poor crops now. The cypress pines around Clare look stressed in a way I've never seen before and the waterholes in the creeks are already drying up. Even the spring are getting low which is astonishing given how much rain we had in 2016.
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#1469732 - 30/08/2018 12:13 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 358
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Some pretty intense gusts in the CBD just now. Rattled the roofing outside my office window.
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#1469733 - 30/08/2018 12:33 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
No SWW?

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#1469737 - 30/08/2018 13:14 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Savage gusts at home as that intense sections of wind ripped through. 111km/h max gust recorded and had one of the recycling bins became slightly airborne and travelled at least 3-5m as it was on our part of the yard.

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#1469738 - 30/08/2018 13:38 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 101
25,398 customers without power over 47 outages

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#1469743 - 30/08/2018 15:52 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
been fairly calm up here.
down south has been windy

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#1469744 - 30/08/2018 16:22 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Eevo]
red earth Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 374
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
Was driving through Tailem Bend as the wind ripped through. Temperature dropped from 22 to 13 in 20 minutes or so. What a welcome back to Adelaide after enjoying 2 months in warmer climes.

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#1469755 - 30/08/2018 18:43 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 383
Loc: Lock South Australia
Been a very good system for us here at Lock on the EP. A total of 21mm here on our farm 5km west of Lock since early this morning. It brings the monthly total to 109mm which is a record for us. Amazing this month has turned our season around after the record dry start for us. We have had more rain this month than in the whole year.

Very happy people around here but plenty have still missed out and it is too late for a lot of people

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#1469759 - 30/08/2018 20:27 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
5mm so far

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#1469767 - 30/08/2018 22:32 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Still a fair bit more to come through overnight on the upper low, the wrap around band should bring up some more thundery rain from the South West. Think it will favour the Yorke Peninsula, and maybe parts of the EP.
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#1469782 - 31/08/2018 09:16 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 519
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
A total of 5.5mm as at 8am this morning and raining lightly.

Good to hear, epthunda that you had a decent drop. We came through upper Eyre Peninsula & the Far West Coast about 2 weeks ago and they sure could use a good drop out there.

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#1469805 - 31/08/2018 12:35 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Great to hear epthunder.

17mm in Clare, very thick drizzly rain for the last couple of hours.
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#1469819 - 31/08/2018 15:23 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
12mm so far in Hazelwood park, and a fair amount of pollen in the gauge. This takes it to 87mm for the month.

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#1469845 - 31/08/2018 19:23 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
Up to 24mm now and teeming down. In the zone.

Looks like we ended up dead on average for August rather surprisingly with 80mm for the month to 9am.
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#1469863 - 31/08/2018 22:14 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Still light rain here, very pretty the rain drops coming down in the torch light :-)

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#1469903 - 01/09/2018 13:11 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
36mm here. Have far exceeded all models prior to this event. Feels like forever since we've had one of those days where it drizzles for hours and hours. Loving it.

Impeccible timing for the growing season.
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1469912 - 01/09/2018 15:18 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
Another 4.5mm last night with a couple of hours of steady light rain. Total for August now 91.5mm.

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#1469920 - 01/09/2018 18:23 Re: SA Cut-off low/upper trough with rain, showers and thunderstorms Aug 29th-31st [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Bridgewater
10.7mm total from this system. a bit disappointing.


134.1 for the month

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