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#1469783 - 31/08/2018 09:18 Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A "warm" northerly day for most Vic regions on the Wednesday, and the chance of "moisture-tinged" air to be advected down from NW WA with it. Thundery change? Some snow melt?

GFS:


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#1469797 - 31/08/2018 11:39 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good Question (Chart keep changing) About snow melt degree as cold uppers still hanging around along southern Australia and no broken early warm spring yet...

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#1469963 - 02/09/2018 18:51 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Admittedly Gippsland-centric, here's GFS's guess at the chance of a storm out our way next Thursday arvo as the front crosses:



...in my opinion, provides us the chance of a rumble or two on the cold front?

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#1469969 - 02/09/2018 20:21 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Hope so! I think the snow melt will start, looks like some warm weather to follow this one too
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#1470037 - 03/09/2018 18:20 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
As Logansi reported in the Possible Events thread, rainfall prospects have reduced for this frontal system, ....but nice to see the word "thunder" included in our local BOM forecast for the first time this side of winter smile


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#1470130 - 04/09/2018 14:03 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dead calm and sunny here after a light frost.

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#1470153 - 04/09/2018 18:39 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Nice upgrade on latest models



Will largely depend on storm development during Thursday
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1470194 - 05/09/2018 09:00 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Reckon so Logansi, looks like a testing commute home from work tomorrow for those heading East out of Melbourne due to storms?:



Get ready for pollen warnings all day tomorrow.

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#1470195 - 05/09/2018 09:09 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
15.2 here at Moorabbin at 9am, been a while since we've seen that. Looking forward to tomorrow hoping for that first storm!
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#1470201 - 05/09/2018 11:51 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I think this will be of interest for some smile






Edited by Dawoodman (05/09/2018 11:53)
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#1470220 - 05/09/2018 16:19 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I like it!


Mildura now up to 31C for next Tuesday, seasons have changed quite suddenly
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1470224 - 05/09/2018 16:54 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Very "Springy" today, everywhere local hit 20C+ with Yarram top at 21.5C.

Chance of a volatile change tomorrow as per above, hoping for some cloud bursts smile

Just see BOM has upped forcast rainfall for Sale, 2mm-15mm, seem to remember it at 2mm-6mm y'day or in past couple of days.

15mm would be handy.


Edited by samboz (05/09/2018 16:56)

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#1470252 - 06/09/2018 09:19 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
If this blanket of cloud moves on in the next hour and we jump straight into the 19-20 degree weather it should build up nicely before the front arrives. Needs to happen quick though.
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1470253 - 06/09/2018 09:22 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Looking at the satellite it will clear very soon
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#1470254 - 06/09/2018 09:22 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Seems to be a clearer slot W of Geelong DW, might help.

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#1470259 - 06/09/2018 10:39 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Light steady rain in Sale since about 1025hrs, calm otherwise.

Be nice when the B'dale radar gets going again, been out for three days now.

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#1470274 - 06/09/2018 13:00 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First strikes just started up round Charlton - guess we can call it the first cell of the season
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#1470275 - 06/09/2018 13:13 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No rain here, but a very cold calm morning.

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#1470277 - 06/09/2018 14:23 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The upper tough or front looks weak is light showers.

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#1470279 - 06/09/2018 14:49 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sunny period arrived here an hour ago, temp lifted to 20C quicktime, feels humid enough for a storm although nothing promising yet visible to our W.

Storms have blossomed up over the central parts of the state:


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#1470280 - 06/09/2018 15:01 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprise first spring fast moving thundery lighting dumped 5mm.

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#1470284 - 06/09/2018 16:40 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 717
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Some nasty cells around. The one near Seymour now and Torquay before were of note.



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#1470286 - 06/09/2018 16:43 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Nice Squall line forming along the wind change front near Geelong, this is from the Avalon Airport Aviation Weather Camera

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1470288 - 06/09/2018 16:47 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 717
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: logansi
Nice Squall line forming along the wind change front near Geelong, this is from the Avalon Airport Aviation Weather Camera




Oh Boi!


Edited by balmz (06/09/2018 16:48)

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#1470294 - 06/09/2018 18:28 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good picture.

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#1470298 - 06/09/2018 18:58 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Logansi, temps pushed up to a balmy 22C here, got 0.25mm from a brief, but heavy, late arvo shower.

Other than that, waiting, waiting.........hoping

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#1470301 - 06/09/2018 19:13 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Absolutely hammering down up here atm

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#1470325 - 07/09/2018 07:33 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2080
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Good pic Loganski, thanks.

11mm in Sale, pretty much all over by 0100hrs, cloudy with gusty wind this morning, 30kph to 44kph from the W.

Yanakie & W/Prom round 20mm locally, Bairnsdale 12mm will have a smile smile on TB.

Best seen on Vic Obs was 32.6mm @ Mt Hotham.

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#1470331 - 07/09/2018 08:31 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A final shower at 7am saw us total a much appreciated 10mm here. No storm.

Calm and sunny over here Samboz for Royal Maffra Golf Tournament smile

Spring has arrived!

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#1470341 - 07/09/2018 12:11 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 717
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Got absolutely soaked at the MCG last night. Was celebrating the initial cell development near the CBD just missed us before 7pm but then it just bubbled up right overhead.

Tiges got up though so all good grin

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#1470345 - 07/09/2018 13:14 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
12.5mm here overnight. Very welcome. Sunny, light breezes atm.

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#1470419 - 07/09/2018 19:58 Re: Vic - first spring change for 2018 3-7/9/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Great to see some got some nice numbers, sure need it - going to be a very dry next 10 days based on the models, other than a few fronts slipping past resulting in showers in the south. BOM's outlook for a very dry September looks to be correct at the moment. This is what ACCESSG is looking at for the next 10 days



Edited by logansi (07/09/2018 20:00)
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