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#1470098 - 04/09/2018 09:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
No need to get upset at ken. He 100% understands......he is very well traveled and educated....and an incredible part of this forum.
I know a lot of farmers and none of which in my family or group of friends thought they where going to get anything out of this event and let alone 5mm.
And to state 5mm will produce shoots in warm days and cold night this time of years shows some people are not in touch with the land and to state $100 or $200 a day is a lot (it is to some sure..) but in the scheme of things itís very small scale. My close friends just received a $45,000 power bill for this quarter for there dairy farm near Kyogle.... from irrigation , our other friends our near Tenterfield run sheep and made a mistake running the rams months ago as it was a each way bet for rains... it didnít work out and now in the last few weeks have had more than 500 lambs get walked away and die from due to bad conditions and plenty more dropping buy the day....lucky for them they have stored plenty of feed for year as a safety net....and have plenty of water so they can save there ewes. But loose everything else.
Absolutely no need to get on here and rant......100% itís terrible times for everyone on the land and it will be for a very long time even if we get rains or flood in the near future. Iíve said it before , 99% of farmers I know never get exited about rain until it falling...aspecialy in the middle of a drought.

In a stark contrast... my friend had just started his coffee harvest at Byron bay and has had nearly 100mm i the last 2 days and 30knots of winds ....worst timing you could have as fruit swells splits with in 24hrs and falls off the tree as they where just holding on due to the drought...I spoke with him this morning and it probably 50% of his crop is on the ground today.

Farming is a bloody tough gig.... we all really appreciate everyone on the land , small or big

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#1470099 - 04/09/2018 10:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: Lani
I did say that only small amounts were predicted though Ken. You don't understand how disheartening it is when you are desperately trying to feed stock and you have a week of forecasts predicting 5mm or 10mm of rain for over 5 days and then on the morning of the rain you wake up to <1mm on the forecast. We may well get rain out of this, maybe some good falls even, it's not the point I'm making. It's the unpredictability of the forecasts days out and then again on the day itself. Unlike the coast, we started with 4-5 days or rain predicted, then we only had 2 days of rain predicted with a possible 15mm out of it in total (so obviously we might be lucky to get 5mm total) and now todays forecast has dropped to nothing with perhaps up to 5mm tomorrow. It might sound like nothing to the city people but that can help keep the ground a little moist and bring up small shoots. Anyone depending on rain will see that forecast today and some may well just sit down and cry as they try not to hope but you can't help it. I have friends spending $120-200 a day to keep their stock alive on the downs and they all work jobs off the farm like the rest of us. These people are spending more than they are making and it's just sad to watch. Imagine spending that kind of money. The predictions are just another nail in their coffins and it's not just this 'event' it's nearly every time they predict any kind of rainfall lately. You can count on your hands the amount of times they've been correct. Sorry if you're offended by my comments Ken, it's not personal, it's just difficult watching so many people struggling and to have their hopes continually dashed makes it that much worse. As I said, I apologise for the rant, but it's just stressful times.


No-one's saying it's not disheartening. Of course it is and extremely at that. But it's been emphasised many times in the past including in this current thread that trying to predict rainfall amounts precisely and consistently is always very hard to do (especially in this country where rainfall can be so patchy and convective) compared to say whether it'll be hot, cold, windy, very wet or a only a little wet. And it's even harder when you're trying to predict the difference between small rainfall amounts from showers like 15mm over 5 days vs 5mm over 2 days as opposed to 200mm vs 25mm. That's just the way it's always been. I don't know about you but I'd rather have at least some general idea of whether it's likely to be a lot of rain or not much rather than no idea at all. But if you're expecting to rely on rainfall forecasts to accurately and consistently distinguish between small rainfall amounts, then expect to be let down often.
Also, I've lost count of how many times people have written off an "event" after it's only just started then suddenly went quiet after the rain gauge readings across a region shows that totals were fairly close to what was forecast once the event's over. Just that these people often judge a forecast for an entire region based on what fell in their own backyard. But people don't seem to remember those times.
Yes, rainfall forecasts often get downgraded in this part of the world and yes, it's extremely annoying but at the same time, I could dig up a big number of setups in recent years when observed rainfall amounts either came close to, or even exceeded original expectations when you look at a region.

I'm the first one to admit that I'm totally over the "weather" in this part of the world. You've probably seen me complain on here... and no-one's saying rainfall forecasts are consistently accurate... but we go through this same thing year in, year out on here. Considering this is a weather forum, I'd like to think more people would take the time to try and take an interest into why things happen the way they do rather than just make it into a "the predictions were wrong once again" place.
Mega said this as well earlier on in this thread but this event never looked like something you could get your hopes up for except for some near the coast. You may have seen this already but here was one of the earlier posts: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea..._ar#Post1469973

P.S. As Seabreeze already mentioned, there's already been some decent falls along parts of the coast with lighter falls further north and west... as expected. 24hr observed rainfall up to 9am this morning bearing in mind it's only been one day so far:








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#1470102 - 04/09/2018 10:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
A land of drought and flood . . Never a truer statement! We got a clearing trend down here Norwest wind and blue sky out to the west.Wish the clearing trend would shift the rain inland and not off the coast eh

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#1470104 - 04/09/2018 10:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Winds are all over the place actually now they're blowing from the south but the bulk of activity looks well off the coast now.

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#1470106 - 04/09/2018 10:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice bit of rain to the west of Roma .Small band of rain being building over Mungallala and Mitchell for 2 hrs .Hopefully we will get some here.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470107 - 04/09/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Honestly, why would I be upset at Ken?? And I'm sorry Timbuck but as someone who DOES get green shoots after 5mm and who has a small acreage of 160 on the Downs, I don't think I'm that out of touch. Thank god for light soils, I have some small shoots in my sand from the 8.5mm I got last week. Many farmers around here start preparing soils for crops based on rain forecasts so someone must be hoping the forecasts come true. The BIG farmers are clearly struggling way more than us. No doubt. But everyone forgets there are many small holders that earn the same as the average household while maintaining small herds of a couple hundred cattle. $1400 a week going out in feed for those people is just as devastating as it is for bigger properties and they don't qualify for any assistance as they work. Sometimes it helps to remember everyone. Having a rant is just venting some frustration and I've no idea why people have to take it personally. It isn't personal??

And Ken, I do get your frustration with people calling off events before they start. I was trying to point out NOT whether or not it WILL rain in the coming days, I realise it hasn't started yet, BUT the unpredictability of the forecasts that change right up to the day of the event after days of forecasting one thing then changing on the morning of. That was where I was headed. Anyway, clearly not explaining myself well and just annoying people so I'll go off and hide now.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1470108 - 04/09/2018 11:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I understand where you are Lani it's hard ,People don't realize Farmers plough money and seed in the field when they are broke with a forecast of some rain and also hope for luck with follow up rain to get though.
Thought i would re-post something i put in another tread Regarding rain prediction by the BOM.As it is easy to assume 5 mm is 5 mm .
Well i read i have been reading the weather forecast wrong lol.
Turns out 80 % of 2- 5 mm of rain is not quite what it looks.
click link for better understanding
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/ra...f-them/10093822

This forecast is saying there is possible rainfall between 2mm and 5mm.

The first figure means there's a 50 per cent chance of receiving at least 2mm of rain.

The second figure means there is a 25 per cent chance of receiving at least 5mm of rain.
An image with annotations explaining how to read a rain forecast.


Edited by ozone doug (04/09/2018 11:23)
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470109 - 04/09/2018 11:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
My feelings
BOM should let the meterogists (excuse spelling) eg ken do the forcasts manually. I feel the forcasts were alot more acurate when humans made the forcast
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470110 - 04/09/2018 11:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: ozone doug]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Thought i would re-post something i put in another tread Regarding rain prediction by the BOM.
Well i read i have been reading the weather forecast wrong lol.
Turns out 80 % of 2- 5 mm of rain is not quite what it looks.
click link for better understanding
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/ra...f-them/10093822

This forecast is saying there is possible rainfall between 2mm and 5mm.

The first figure means there's a 50 per cent chance of receiving at least 2mm of rain.

The second figure means there is a 25 per cent chance of receiving at least 5mm of rain.
An image with annotations explaining how to read a rain forecast.

I think it's easy for people to make it harder for themelves to interpret than it really is.

The easiest way to interpret that forecast is to simply read it literally i.e. 60% chance of any rain.... and if rain does fall, 2 to 5mm of rain is possible.

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#1470111 - 04/09/2018 11:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: tsunami]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: tsunami
My feelings
BOM should let the meterogists (excuse spelling) eg ken do the forcasts manually. I feel the forcasts were alot more acurate when humans made the forcast


Contrary to popular belief, forecasters can, and regularly do manually edit the automated forecasts before they go public as has been mentioned many times on here before.
Depending on the forecaster and the setup, there's actually a lot of time spent manually adjusting things here and there that the public never get to see.

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#1470113 - 04/09/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I'd love to have a rant aswell, "weather" forum where only a few want to discuss actual weather.. the rest just want to complain about global warming and the BOM...

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#1470114 - 04/09/2018 11:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Very interesting
Thanks Ken
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470118 - 04/09/2018 12:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Only 0.5mm here yesterday, nothing yet today rain wise. Happy to see some proper interesting weather about though.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1470121 - 04/09/2018 12:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Small waterspout off Kirra beach moving northward out of a nice chunky cloud just off the coast

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#1470124 - 04/09/2018 13:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like some heavy showers coming onshore in coastal areas at the moment with some fairly solid rainfall rates.

Event is not over.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1470125 - 04/09/2018 13:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Wooo
Its raining
Might get some tomatoe sauce for my hat
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470126 - 04/09/2018 13:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
This is yet another great example of how current obs/radar/satellite, etc don't always indicate what it's going to be like beyond a few hours time. Things can change at the drop of a hat.

In this particular case, EC and ACCESS-C were going for showers to start coming onto the coast as the day progressed during today after the initial clearance but you wouldn't know it just going by radar this morning.

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#1470127 - 04/09/2018 13:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes amazing
I thought when it cleared it was all over
Then bang
Crickey
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470128 - 04/09/2018 13:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Send some this way please.

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#1470133 - 04/09/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
2mm yaaa
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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