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#1470134 - 04/09/2018 14:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba
he can someone post a link to kaputar webcam. Not sure if its hail or snow.

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#1470135 - 04/09/2018 14:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba

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#1470140 - 04/09/2018 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Small waterspout off Kirra beach moving northward out of a nice chunky cloud just off the coast


Yes I seen that from where I work near Tugan, although I couldn't tell from where I was if the spout made it down to the water.

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#1470141 - 04/09/2018 16:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Trying to work out why tomorrow's forecast for SE QLD coastal regions is "showers developing" when the showers have already been constant??

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#1470145 - 04/09/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 811
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Good question Gleno.Now for my rant I'm over this cool crappy cruddy weather we've had for so long .Bring on the heat humidity and some inland convection for a change!

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#1470146 - 04/09/2018 17:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 90
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
6.6mm in Ferny Hills yesterday, but only 1.2mm so far today; hoping for more tonight.

I understand the frustration seeing apparently good rainfall on the radar along - but not quite over - the coast. Is that real, or a radar artifact?

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#1470150 - 04/09/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Hi Glrno
I think the sun helps convection so at night it dies away. Next day as sun warms thd air convection starts again.hence showers developing again
May well be wrong. Ken will be able to clear this up
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470151 - 04/09/2018 18:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
Nothing extra in the gauge for Salisbury today, still sitting on 1.5mm from yesterday's shower activity. Would be nice to get a bit more rain, but event appears to be panning out just as forecast on here several days ago.

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#1470152 - 04/09/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It looks as though a little trough developed at about 155E (too far offshore) this morning which was enough to hog the onshore flow onto the coast and stuff things up for us. Was never really a fan of the broader setup anyway...upper low already established over NSW but rapidly weakening as it headed north towards QLD. Ideal trajectory for northern coastal NSW but usually not for us.

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#1470154 - 04/09/2018 18:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Yep correct tsunami. The showers are expected to become confined to more coastal areas and offshore overnight before spreading inland again during the day tomorrow because of the diurnal convective max (also helped by winds over land tending to be more onshore during the day).

162mm of rain so far during the last 72hrs at Ballina Airport at time of writing.

A scattering of 50-100mm falls have occurred over parts of the Northern Rivers coast mixed in with some falls exceeding 25mm in that region as well as some locations on the islands such as Stradbroke Island & SE coastal fringe.
Many of the other falls in SE QLD have mainly been in the range of 1 to 25mm (so far).

Here's some (but not all) of the observed rainfall amounts in the last 72hrs via The Early Warning Network:


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#1470159 - 04/09/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10440
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
1.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. 0.8mm since 9am. Have really been missing the showers here (16mm for the event so far). Places on and west of the ranges have actually had more rain than here during this event, e.g. Armidale 23.2mm and Gunnedah 17.4mm.

Ballina was the wettest to since 9am this morning with 79mm, followed by Lake Ainsworth's 68mm, and 65mm at Yamba.
Ballina once again doing very well with the rain today with 70mm since 9am. With (as of 7pm) 174mm for the month so far, it is close to breaking its September monthly rainfall record of 181.4mm (records 1992-present).

Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
he can someone post a link to kaputar webcam. Not sure if its hail or snow. http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11215
It would have to be hail.
The temperature didn't drop below 3.3°C, and the humidity was very high in the 90s when the precip was falling (lower humidity increases the likelihood of snow falling at temperature above zero).
Some of the visual clues are: if it was snow, with amount that accumulated on the ground, you'd expect some snow to be on above ground objects too, but with the exception of the sloped metal cover there's no whiteness. You can also see on that sloped metal cover at the base of the tower, that the hailstones have collected toward the bottom, like you'd expect for hailstones on a sloped surface.
Today's movie: http://ozforecast.com.au/images//11215/11215-20180904.mp4
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1470160 - 04/09/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers

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#1470162 - 04/09/2018 20:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Sillybanter]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers

Looked like a classic setup for small hail in that area. Very cold air aloft associated with an upper low but not likely to be sufficiently cold through the lower levels to support snow surviving to the ground (e.g. 4C at 850hpa). Convection often doesn’t have to look that good on radar (as opposed to large hail) to produce small hail even if some of it is water-coated. The clouds that produce small hail can also look a bit like convective snow clouds with lots of glaciation visible. Were there any other reports of small hail or snowflakes in the area?

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#1470164 - 04/09/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
divho Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2002
Posts: 376
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like a small lightning active cell passed to the east of Narrabri around 2.15pm ish.

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#1470165 - 04/09/2018 21:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10440
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers
I've had a look on the radar and where the tower is on Mt Kaputar (white dot) was right on the edge of heavy cell at 2pm (pictured below). The cell began to produce lightning on the next frame at 2:10pm. Btw when I said hail, I meant just the small stuff like around pea-sized. smile


Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Ballina once again doing very well with the rain today with 70mm since 9am. With (as of 7pm) 174mm for the month so far, it is close to breaking its September monthly rainfall record of 181.4mm (records 1992-present).
Ballina are now up to 83.2mm since 9am, which makes it 187.2mm for the month, and therefore breaks its September monthly rainfall record.
If it records more than 92.0mm in the 24hr period to 9am tomorrow, then it will also be Ballina's wettest September day on record.


Edited by Seabreeze (04/09/2018 21:11)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1470168 - 04/09/2018 21:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 811
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That is unbelievable..enough to really upset the country folk.With regard to the chatter about hail I only being a novice am predicting a hail active storm season with all this cold air around the east coast of Australia persisting up until now

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#1470178 - 05/09/2018 05:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
0.8mm overnight, event total for Salisbury now at 2.3mm

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#1470179 - 05/09/2018 06:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: tsunami]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Hi Glrno
I think the sun helps convection so at night it dies away. Next day as sun warms thd air convection starts again.hence showers developing again
May well be wrong. Ken will be able to clear this up



Thanks for that, yes as Ken was just saying. Sometimes in these setups, I have found in the past that sometimes you can have showers of a night and they clear of a day, and then this set up where the showers are more during the day and they clear up at night

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#1470182 - 05/09/2018 07:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Had some heavy showers overnight
All up a suprising 40mm
Did not see that comming yesterday morning
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470183 - 05/09/2018 07:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Sorry on closer inspection 48mm
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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