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#1469928 - 01/09/2018 20:24 SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A trough will combine with a decent onshore flow to deliver showers, rain areas and possible thunderstorms to SEQLD/NENSW. Rainfall should favour areas east of the ranges. There are some places which could accumulate more than 50mm during the event, which is more than, or close to, the September monthly average in almost every SEQLD/NENSW location.


Edited by Seabreeze (08/09/2018 18:07)
Edit Reason: title edit
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1469940 - 02/09/2018 07:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Thanks SB, might be abit of convergence there and looks like a surface low tries to form just offshore. Though starting to see surface winds wrapping up SE'ly.

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#1469941 - 02/09/2018 07:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 551
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I am hoping to get one shower with enough intensity to wash the new dust off the roof I cleaned a few weeks ago. Was ready to paint yesterday, decided not to proceed when I saw the wind and dust.
Looks also like some chance some rain still around next weekend. Hope the event provides a good few drops say at least 30mm for all that need it.


Edited by Flowin (02/09/2018 07:33)

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#1469946 - 02/09/2018 08:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Nicely started SB, lookin forward to the dust been washed down, much much clearer this morning. Might even get a start to the wet stuff late this arvo.
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#1469951 - 02/09/2018 11:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Few note worthy things strong mid to upper level shear and a nice area of nicely chilled upper temps as you mentioned earlier.Though don't think we will see much precip until tomorrow onwards.



Also one of the few descent forecast soundings at 18z.









Edited by Steve O (02/09/2018 12:03)

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#1469957 - 02/09/2018 15:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Air is cold, dry and quite blowy down here this Arvo, looking forward to a more moist component from the south east.At least the dust has cleared now all we want is some heavy showers and some rumbles hopefully.

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#1469964 - 02/09/2018 18:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Today began to feel cool as the southerly wind gained strength (a noticeable change from yesterday's balmy weather). The appearance and increase of lower level cloud later this afternoon signalled that moisture was increasing in the lower levels. Only expected to reach 17įC tomorrow around the local centres, though winds should be lighter.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1469973 - 02/09/2018 20:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Just had a good look at this setup and I'm thinking mainly modest falls away from the coast but decent falls along the northern NSW coast and possibly the far southeast of SE QLD with the main peak around Tuesday (but this may change).

Rainfall amounts are always notoriously hard to accurately predict but I feel the majority of inland places will probably stay below around 15mm (although a few could get more under any lumpier convection).... around 10-40mm closer to the coast.... & around 40-90mm along the northern coastal fringe of NSW and far southern coastal fringe/hinterlands of QLD... some places in that latter region might get even more than that. Obviously this won't necessarily all fall over the span of one day.

Dominant weather type looks like mainly showers, tending pretty frequent near the coast by Tuesday.
Some locations could also get some thunder with the modest instability. For some areas where it doesn't become too saturated to depth, some small hail might occur under some of that activity.

Daytime temps look pretty cool by Tue/Wed under the cloud cover also and the breezy conditions on Tue should make it feel even cooler.

If the upper low and trough stay further south than expected, rainfall amounts for SE QLD should be a lot less than currently suggested in this post. If they come up further north than expected (and stay a bit to our west for a bit), rainfall amounts may exceed expectations.
Also, if the offshore surface trough digs in too far south while staying just off the coast, this will deflect the winds to have a more southerly for us so this would decrease rainfall amounts.

Here's a 5-day total rainfall map from the latest EC together with a multimodel graph for Brisbane:



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#1469977 - 02/09/2018 21:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Great stuff thx Ken. Just what the novices need, much appreciated.
DD
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#1469987 - 03/09/2018 06:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
EC might favor Gold Coast/NENSW more, but GFS and Access look a bit better for Sunshine Coast. I will apply some wishful thinking bias and claim that Access has the advantage of local geography, and that Sunshine Coast usually does well in these types of events and the outcome will tilt more towards Access/GFS than EC. A lot will depend on how strong the high pressure system comes through and how far north it pushes the convergence line/trough.

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#1469988 - 03/09/2018 06:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
EC actually has higher topographical and atmospheric resolution than ACCESS-R (and GFS of course) although it remains to be seen which of those models will be closer to the mark.
One possibility is that the Sunshine Coast will be closer to the offshore trough digging southwards so it may get stronger low level wind convergence & enhance the precip. But areas further south are closer to the stronger upmotion on the eastern flank of the upper trough and low. So will be interesting.

P.S. thanks DDstorm


Edited by Ken Kato (03/09/2018 06:51)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1469989 - 03/09/2018 07:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
Indeed! Thanks Ken and others who contribute opinions. We are out here looking forward to your input. I'm batting for the Sunny Coast to cop a bucketing!

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#1469996 - 03/09/2018 08:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
EC actually has higher topographical and atmospheric resolution than ACCESS-R (and GFS of course)


Thanks for that comment. Is it possible that Access may have any local advantage? If not why run it at all? Perhaps being more tuned to atmospheric processes that are important locally - such as the tendancy of ECLs to interact with the Great Dividing range/local coast.

Sunshine Coast does seem to do very well from anything showery on a SE or E wind, especially compared to Brisbane, where I have lived for many years as well, maybe not so much compared to Gold Coast. Often puzzled over why exactly, perhaps part of it is the location of the range. More recently I spotted a high resolution SST chart showing cooler SSTs in Moreton Bay and thought maybe that is part of the puzzle.

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#1469997 - 03/09/2018 09:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
ACCESS is based on the UK model but tuned to the Australian region with modifications. It's handy having another model to look at because it adds to the range of available models and gives info on how much agreement or disagreement there is among them. Also, the more models are used, the more accurate a multimodel consensus forecast becomes.

ACCESS-R still suffers from the phenomenon of coastal locking where it has an excessively sharp gradient or cutoff between land and maritime precip overnight but this has been fixed in the current version of ACCESS-C. ACCESS-R can also often be very erratic with TC tracks. Having said that, it's still a very good model with lots of other things.

And thanks Snapper smile

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#1470004 - 03/09/2018 10:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
I've just hung the washin out, that should hurry things along.
It's just hovering off the coast, is the wind to southerly off shore to bring it onto land??


Edited by DDstorm (03/09/2018 10:34)
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#1470007 - 03/09/2018 11:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 551
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
ACCESS-R still suffers from the phenomenon of coastal locking where it has an excessively sharp gradient or cutoff between land and maritime precip overnight but this has been fixed in the current version of ACCESS-C.


Ken, thanks for your input it is very helpful. Do you know if BoM use the ACCESS-C in the consensus forecast ADFD (meteye) estimates ? I thought ADFD (meteye) was based on the WATL PME (multi-model) with meteorologist judgement being made to adjust the rainfall estimates, but it is not clear to me whether that is using ACCESS-R or ACCESS-C as part of the multi-model inputs?

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#1470008 - 03/09/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
As far as I'm aware, ACCESS-C isn't one of the models that are included operationally for precip in the ADFD grids but I'd have to check on that. But ACCESS-R and G can be used.
But yeah, the QPF grids displayed in Meteye and the ADFD are a result of the forecasts from the chosen models which are then manually adjusted by the forecaster where required before it goes public. Meanwhile, the chance of rain grids use equations based on the statistical correlation between probability of precip and rainfall amounts, calibrated to past observations and now also factor in the percentage of models going for precip. This is then manually adjusted where required by the forecaster as well.

As a side note, the WATL/PME forecasts now include the EC ensemble (as well as the deterministic EC) as one of the models.

And yeah DDstorm, winds at both the surface and the lower levels are a bit too parallel to the coast at the moment to drive more of the frequent showers ashore.

Mike: One thing I was also going to add was that the shape of the coastline means that the Sunshine Coast faces more perpendicularly to any E or SE flows while the Gold Coast is more at an angle so that may be a factor as well.


Edited by Ken Kato (03/09/2018 11:43)

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#1470010 - 03/09/2018 11:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This system looks pretty meh to me. Enhanced coastal showers under a SE stream but not much at all penetrating inland. Also the next front due on the weekend looks like being nowhere near as active as it once did. Oh well, given the current state of things we'll take what we can get I suppose.

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#1470012 - 03/09/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 8
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Just started showering at Archerfield AP

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#1470030 - 03/09/2018 17:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Im suprised how cold its got.
Temp has plumited
16c now
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470036 - 03/09/2018 18:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Doesnt look too promising for our part of the world. Not much steering happening inland near Marburg this afternoon, good looking clouds must have thrown out an anchor. Been watching rainbows most of the arvo.

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#1470040 - 03/09/2018 18:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Nic_Bri]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Nic_Bri
Just started showering at Archerfield AP
just checked after reading that.....we got 1.5mm in the gauge today for Salisbury. I was working at Morningside today, and the best we got was maybe a minute of lightish drizzle, not even worth getting undercover from.

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#1470047 - 03/09/2018 19:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Seems like the se'lys have kicked in and this change could strengthen during the week leaving us in cooler less humid onshore winds it did look the other day that the coastal trough might deepen but not sure on that now and things become abit more ridgy.

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#1470056 - 03/09/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Some showers brought 13.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. There was 49mm at Lake Ainsworth and 45mm at Woolgoolga.

There's only been 1.0mm since 9am here. Any showers have done a pretty good job of avoiding the Lower Macleay. Ballina doing well with 64mm there so far today.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470067 - 04/09/2018 06:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, at least it's wet outside this morning. Get the High a bit further east and drive that blob ashore.
Northern rivers faring better thus far.
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Just here for the weather

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#1470070 - 04/09/2018 07:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Iím sorry but I have to have a rant. Itís no wonder our farmers are stressed nearly beyond their endurance. The drought is biting so hard itís devastating, breeding stock dying by the day, unable to source feed and we keep getting predictions of rain, only small amounts but itís there on the charts for a week only to dry up the day of the Ďeventí. It would be better if they just stopped predicting rain altogether because even though we try not to hope you canít help it. The continual disappointments are beyond a joke. And I know all the arguments about the whys and wherefores of predicting weather but 70% of the time over the last 5 years theyíre wrong. They havenít been able to predict reliable rain since the 2011 floods. Sorry but Iím just so frustrated and worried. We need some bloody rain frown
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1470071 - 04/09/2018 07:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
This was never forecast to be a big rain event though... not even really a rain event as such (mainly showers). The only areas where decent rainfall was forecast was parts of the coast with modest to low totals elsewhere.
The only time when it looked more impressive than it was was on some (but not all) model maps very early on but even then, you could see by the synoptic pattern that it wasnít going to be a big event.
And weíre not even two days into the setup either and some places along the coast have already received the expected totals.


Edited by Ken Kato (04/09/2018 07:20)

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#1470074 - 04/09/2018 07:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth event to date - zero.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470076 - 04/09/2018 07:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
An interesting clear zone on cloud charts running from roughly Sunshine Coast and then towards the ranges in northern NSW. I'm guessing there is a weak surface feature running along the coast which accounts for the eastern band of this clear zone. And cloud to the west I assume is associated with the upper feature. But it seems the normal pattern of sharp edge on the west and poorly defined edge on the east is reversed for the upper level cloud resulting in an unusual band of clear with sharp edges on both sides.

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#1470078 - 04/09/2018 07:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Huge rain off the coast and thats where itll stay no doupt
Just a tease
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470082 - 04/09/2018 08:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cool overcast 14C morning, no joy here as well, as expected!

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#1470085 - 04/09/2018 08:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rod H Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 44
Loc: Maudsland
Mother nature at her best/ worst. Just allowing some decent rain to be seen falling in the ocean where it's really needed---NOT.What a tease!!! I'm afraid the only rain we will see will be where it is now, offshore.
Enjoy the sight.😢😢😢😢😢😢😢

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#1470087 - 04/09/2018 08:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yip and the sun is out now
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470088 - 04/09/2018 09:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep true the coastal areas usually do best in these setups.

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#1470090 - 04/09/2018 09:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I did say that only small amounts were predicted though Ken. You don't understand how disheartening it is when you are desperately trying to feed stock and you have a week of forecasts predicting 5mm or 10mm of rain for over 5 days and then on the morning of the rain you wake up to <1mm on the forecast. We may well get rain out of this, maybe some good falls even, it's not the point I'm making. It's the unpredictability of the forecasts days out and then again on the day itself. Unlike the coast, we started with 4-5 days or rain predicted, then we only had 2 days of rain predicted with a possible 15mm out of it in total (so obviously we might be lucky to get 5mm total) and now todays forecast has dropped to nothing with perhaps up to 5mm tomorrow. It might sound like nothing to the city people but that can help keep the ground a little moist and bring up small shoots. Anyone depending on rain will see that forecast today and some may well just sit down and cry as they try not to hope but you can't help it. I have friends spending $120-200 a day to keep their stock alive on the downs and they all work jobs off the farm like the rest of us. These people are spending more than they are making and it's just sad to watch. Imagine spending that kind of money. The predictions are just another nail in their coffins and it's not just this 'event' it's nearly every time they predict any kind of rainfall lately. You can count on your hands the amount of times they've been correct. Sorry if you're offended by my comments Ken, it's not personal, it's just difficult watching so many people struggling and to have their hopes continually dashed makes it that much worse. As I said, I apologise for the rant, but it's just stressful times.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1470091 - 04/09/2018 09:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Do I see a hint of rotation on that blob east of Moreton or is it my imagination?
Good grief, nothing else to do, gotta find another hobbie and keep carting water.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (04/09/2018 09:32)

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#1470092 - 04/09/2018 09:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
Spiral evaporation!

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#1470095 - 04/09/2018 09:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Funny Snapper, Hahaha, ;-)

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#1470096 - 04/09/2018 09:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
So far for this event 0mm
Prediction for event less than 1mm
Might get sunburnt instead
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470097 - 04/09/2018 09:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Toowoomba
Even some of us who are not farmers try to understand the situation many on the land are in. Can only hope some decent rain comes soon against the odds.

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#1470098 - 04/09/2018 09:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 230
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
No need to get upset at ken. He 100% understands......he is very well traveled and educated....and an incredible part of this forum.
I know a lot of farmers and none of which in my family or group of friends thought they where going to get anything out of this event and let alone 5mm.
And to state 5mm will produce shoots in warm days and cold night this time of years shows some people are not in touch with the land and to state $100 or $200 a day is a lot (it is to some sure..) but in the scheme of things itís very small scale. My close friends just received a $45,000 power bill for this quarter for there dairy farm near Kyogle.... from irrigation , our other friends our near Tenterfield run sheep and made a mistake running the rams months ago as it was a each way bet for rains... it didnít work out and now in the last few weeks have had more than 500 lambs get walked away and die from due to bad conditions and plenty more dropping buy the day....lucky for them they have stored plenty of feed for year as a safety net....and have plenty of water so they can save there ewes. But loose everything else.
Absolutely no need to get on here and rant......100% itís terrible times for everyone on the land and it will be for a very long time even if we get rains or flood in the near future. Iíve said it before , 99% of farmers I know never get exited about rain until it falling...aspecialy in the middle of a drought.

In a stark contrast... my friend had just started his coffee harvest at Byron bay and has had nearly 100mm i the last 2 days and 30knots of winds ....worst timing you could have as fruit swells splits with in 24hrs and falls off the tree as they where just holding on due to the drought...I spoke with him this morning and it probably 50% of his crop is on the ground today.

Farming is a bloody tough gig.... we all really appreciate everyone on the land , small or big

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#1470099 - 04/09/2018 10:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: Lani
I did say that only small amounts were predicted though Ken. You don't understand how disheartening it is when you are desperately trying to feed stock and you have a week of forecasts predicting 5mm or 10mm of rain for over 5 days and then on the morning of the rain you wake up to <1mm on the forecast. We may well get rain out of this, maybe some good falls even, it's not the point I'm making. It's the unpredictability of the forecasts days out and then again on the day itself. Unlike the coast, we started with 4-5 days or rain predicted, then we only had 2 days of rain predicted with a possible 15mm out of it in total (so obviously we might be lucky to get 5mm total) and now todays forecast has dropped to nothing with perhaps up to 5mm tomorrow. It might sound like nothing to the city people but that can help keep the ground a little moist and bring up small shoots. Anyone depending on rain will see that forecast today and some may well just sit down and cry as they try not to hope but you can't help it. I have friends spending $120-200 a day to keep their stock alive on the downs and they all work jobs off the farm like the rest of us. These people are spending more than they are making and it's just sad to watch. Imagine spending that kind of money. The predictions are just another nail in their coffins and it's not just this 'event' it's nearly every time they predict any kind of rainfall lately. You can count on your hands the amount of times they've been correct. Sorry if you're offended by my comments Ken, it's not personal, it's just difficult watching so many people struggling and to have their hopes continually dashed makes it that much worse. As I said, I apologise for the rant, but it's just stressful times.


No-one's saying it's not disheartening. Of course it is and extremely at that. But it's been emphasised many times in the past including in this current thread that trying to predict rainfall amounts precisely and consistently is always very hard to do (especially in this country where rainfall can be so patchy and convective) compared to say whether it'll be hot, cold, windy, very wet or a only a little wet. And it's even harder when you're trying to predict the difference between small rainfall amounts from showers like 15mm over 5 days vs 5mm over 2 days as opposed to 200mm vs 25mm. That's just the way it's always been. I don't know about you but I'd rather have at least some general idea of whether it's likely to be a lot of rain or not much rather than no idea at all. But if you're expecting to rely on rainfall forecasts to accurately and consistently distinguish between small rainfall amounts, then expect to be let down often.
Also, I've lost count of how many times people have written off an "event" after it's only just started then suddenly went quiet after the rain gauge readings across a region shows that totals were fairly close to what was forecast once the event's over. Just that these people often judge a forecast for an entire region based on what fell in their own backyard. But people don't seem to remember those times.
Yes, rainfall forecasts often get downgraded in this part of the world and yes, it's extremely annoying but at the same time, I could dig up a big number of setups in recent years when observed rainfall amounts either came close to, or even exceeded original expectations when you look at a region.

I'm the first one to admit that I'm totally over the "weather" in this part of the world. You've probably seen me complain on here... and no-one's saying rainfall forecasts are consistently accurate... but we go through this same thing year in, year out on here. Considering this is a weather forum, I'd like to think more people would take the time to try and take an interest into why things happen the way they do rather than just make it into a "the predictions were wrong once again" place.
Mega said this as well earlier on in this thread but this event never looked like something you could get your hopes up for except for some near the coast. You may have seen this already but here was one of the earlier posts: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea..._ar#Post1469973

P.S. As Seabreeze already mentioned, there's already been some decent falls along parts of the coast with lighter falls further north and west... as expected. 24hr observed rainfall up to 9am this morning bearing in mind it's only been one day so far:








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#1470102 - 04/09/2018 10:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
A land of drought and flood . . Never a truer statement! We got a clearing trend down here Norwest wind and blue sky out to the west.Wish the clearing trend would shift the rain inland and not off the coast eh

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#1470104 - 04/09/2018 10:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Winds are all over the place actually now they're blowing from the south but the bulk of activity looks well off the coast now.

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#1470106 - 04/09/2018 10:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice bit of rain to the west of Roma .Small band of rain being building over Mungallala and Mitchell for 2 hrs .Hopefully we will get some here.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470107 - 04/09/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Honestly, why would I be upset at Ken?? And I'm sorry Timbuck but as someone who DOES get green shoots after 5mm and who has a small acreage of 160 on the Downs, I don't think I'm that out of touch. Thank god for light soils, I have some small shoots in my sand from the 8.5mm I got last week. Many farmers around here start preparing soils for crops based on rain forecasts so someone must be hoping the forecasts come true. The BIG farmers are clearly struggling way more than us. No doubt. But everyone forgets there are many small holders that earn the same as the average household while maintaining small herds of a couple hundred cattle. $1400 a week going out in feed for those people is just as devastating as it is for bigger properties and they don't qualify for any assistance as they work. Sometimes it helps to remember everyone. Having a rant is just venting some frustration and I've no idea why people have to take it personally. It isn't personal??

And Ken, I do get your frustration with people calling off events before they start. I was trying to point out NOT whether or not it WILL rain in the coming days, I realise it hasn't started yet, BUT the unpredictability of the forecasts that change right up to the day of the event after days of forecasting one thing then changing on the morning of. That was where I was headed. Anyway, clearly not explaining myself well and just annoying people so I'll go off and hide now.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1470108 - 04/09/2018 11:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I understand where you are Lani it's hard ,People don't realize Farmers plough money and seed in the field when they are broke with a forecast of some rain and also hope for luck with follow up rain to get though.
Thought i would re-post something i put in another tread Regarding rain prediction by the BOM.As it is easy to assume 5 mm is 5 mm .
Well i read i have been reading the weather forecast wrong lol.
Turns out 80 % of 2- 5 mm of rain is not quite what it looks.
click link for better understanding
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/ra...f-them/10093822

This forecast is saying there is possible rainfall between 2mm and 5mm.

The first figure means there's a 50 per cent chance of receiving at least 2mm of rain.

The second figure means there is a 25 per cent chance of receiving at least 5mm of rain.
An image with annotations explaining how to read a rain forecast.


Edited by ozone doug (04/09/2018 11:23)
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470109 - 04/09/2018 11:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
My feelings
BOM should let the meterogists (excuse spelling) eg ken do the forcasts manually. I feel the forcasts were alot more acurate when humans made the forcast
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470110 - 04/09/2018 11:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: ozone doug]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Thought i would re-post something i put in another tread Regarding rain prediction by the BOM.
Well i read i have been reading the weather forecast wrong lol.
Turns out 80 % of 2- 5 mm of rain is not quite what it looks.
click link for better understanding
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/ra...f-them/10093822

This forecast is saying there is possible rainfall between 2mm and 5mm.

The first figure means there's a 50 per cent chance of receiving at least 2mm of rain.

The second figure means there is a 25 per cent chance of receiving at least 5mm of rain.
An image with annotations explaining how to read a rain forecast.

I think it's easy for people to make it harder for themelves to interpret than it really is.

The easiest way to interpret that forecast is to simply read it literally i.e. 60% chance of any rain.... and if rain does fall, 2 to 5mm of rain is possible.

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#1470111 - 04/09/2018 11:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: tsunami]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: tsunami
My feelings
BOM should let the meterogists (excuse spelling) eg ken do the forcasts manually. I feel the forcasts were alot more acurate when humans made the forcast


Contrary to popular belief, forecasters can, and regularly do manually edit the automated forecasts before they go public as has been mentioned many times on here before.
Depending on the forecaster and the setup, there's actually a lot of time spent manually adjusting things here and there that the public never get to see.

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#1470113 - 04/09/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I'd love to have a rant aswell, "weather" forum where only a few want to discuss actual weather.. the rest just want to complain about global warming and the BOM...

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#1470114 - 04/09/2018 11:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Very interesting
Thanks Ken
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470118 - 04/09/2018 12:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Only 0.5mm here yesterday, nothing yet today rain wise. Happy to see some proper interesting weather about though.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1470121 - 04/09/2018 12:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Small waterspout off Kirra beach moving northward out of a nice chunky cloud just off the coast

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#1470124 - 04/09/2018 13:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like some heavy showers coming onshore in coastal areas at the moment with some fairly solid rainfall rates.

Event is not over.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1470125 - 04/09/2018 13:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Wooo
Its raining
Might get some tomatoe sauce for my hat
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470126 - 04/09/2018 13:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
This is yet another great example of how current obs/radar/satellite, etc don't always indicate what it's going to be like beyond a few hours time. Things can change at the drop of a hat.

In this particular case, EC and ACCESS-C were going for showers to start coming onto the coast as the day progressed during today after the initial clearance but you wouldn't know it just going by radar this morning.

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#1470127 - 04/09/2018 13:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes amazing
I thought when it cleared it was all over
Then bang
Crickey
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470128 - 04/09/2018 13:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Send some this way please.

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#1470133 - 04/09/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
2mm yaaa
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470134 - 04/09/2018 14:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
he can someone post a link to kaputar webcam. Not sure if its hail or snow.

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#1470135 - 04/09/2018 14:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba

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#1470140 - 04/09/2018 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Small waterspout off Kirra beach moving northward out of a nice chunky cloud just off the coast


Yes I seen that from where I work near Tugan, although I couldn't tell from where I was if the spout made it down to the water.

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#1470141 - 04/09/2018 16:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Trying to work out why tomorrow's forecast for SE QLD coastal regions is "showers developing" when the showers have already been constant??

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#1470145 - 04/09/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Good question Gleno.Now for my rant I'm over this cool crappy cruddy weather we've had for so long .Bring on the heat humidity and some inland convection for a change!

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#1470146 - 04/09/2018 17:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 95
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
6.6mm in Ferny Hills yesterday, but only 1.2mm so far today; hoping for more tonight.

I understand the frustration seeing apparently good rainfall on the radar along - but not quite over - the coast. Is that real, or a radar artifact?

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#1470150 - 04/09/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Hi Glrno
I think the sun helps convection so at night it dies away. Next day as sun warms thd air convection starts again.hence showers developing again
May well be wrong. Ken will be able to clear this up
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470151 - 04/09/2018 18:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Nothing extra in the gauge for Salisbury today, still sitting on 1.5mm from yesterday's shower activity. Would be nice to get a bit more rain, but event appears to be panning out just as forecast on here several days ago.

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#1470152 - 04/09/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It looks as though a little trough developed at about 155E (too far offshore) this morning which was enough to hog the onshore flow onto the coast and stuff things up for us. Was never really a fan of the broader setup anyway...upper low already established over NSW but rapidly weakening as it headed north towards QLD. Ideal trajectory for northern coastal NSW but usually not for us.

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#1470154 - 04/09/2018 18:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Yep correct tsunami. The showers are expected to become confined to more coastal areas and offshore overnight before spreading inland again during the day tomorrow because of the diurnal convective max (also helped by winds over land tending to be more onshore during the day).

162mm of rain so far during the last 72hrs at Ballina Airport at time of writing.

A scattering of 50-100mm falls have occurred over parts of the Northern Rivers coast mixed in with some falls exceeding 25mm in that region as well as some locations on the islands such as Stradbroke Island & SE coastal fringe.
Many of the other falls in SE QLD have mainly been in the range of 1 to 25mm (so far).

Here's some (but not all) of the observed rainfall amounts in the last 72hrs via The Early Warning Network:


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#1470159 - 04/09/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
1.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. 0.8mm since 9am. Have really been missing the showers here (16mm for the event so far). Places on and west of the ranges have actually had more rain than here during this event, e.g. Armidale 23.2mm and Gunnedah 17.4mm.

Ballina was the wettest to since 9am this morning with 79mm, followed by Lake Ainsworth's 68mm, and 65mm at Yamba.
Ballina once again doing very well with the rain today with 70mm since 9am. With (as of 7pm) 174mm for the month so far, it is close to breaking its September monthly rainfall record of 181.4mm (records 1992-present).

Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
he can someone post a link to kaputar webcam. Not sure if its hail or snow. http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11215
It would have to be hail.
The temperature didn't drop below 3.3įC, and the humidity was very high in the 90s when the precip was falling (lower humidity increases the likelihood of snow falling at temperature above zero).
Some of the visual clues are: if it was snow, with amount that accumulated on the ground, you'd expect some snow to be on above ground objects too, but with the exception of the sloped metal cover there's no whiteness. You can also see on that sloped metal cover at the base of the tower, that the hailstones have collected toward the bottom, like you'd expect for hailstones on a sloped surface.
Today's movie: http://ozforecast.com.au/images//11215/11215-20180904.mp4
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470160 - 04/09/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers

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#1470162 - 04/09/2018 20:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Sillybanter]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers

Looked like a classic setup for small hail in that area. Very cold air aloft associated with an upper low but not likely to be sufficiently cold through the lower levels to support snow surviving to the ground (e.g. 4C at 850hpa). Convection often doesnít have to look that good on radar (as opposed to large hail) to produce small hail even if some of it is water-coated. The clouds that produce small hail can also look a bit like convective snow clouds with lots of glaciation visible. Were there any other reports of small hail or snowflakes in the area?

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#1470164 - 04/09/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
divho Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2002
Posts: 381
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like a small lightning active cell passed to the east of Narrabri around 2.15pm ish.

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#1470165 - 04/09/2018 21:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Thanks Seabreeze. I think one argument for snow is the type of clouds that were present at the time which can be watched in some of the other webcams. Also the precipitation on the radar was quite light which I would have thought was not a good indication of hail. I get your argument for the sloped surfaces but I don't think you can really see clearly enough. My bet is snow but quite possibly wrong. If it wasn't it would not be far off.
Cheers
I've had a look on the radar and where the tower is on Mt Kaputar (white dot) was right on the edge of heavy cell at 2pm (pictured below). The cell began to produce lightning on the next frame at 2:10pm. Btw when I said hail, I meant just the small stuff like around pea-sized. smile


Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Ballina once again doing very well with the rain today with 70mm since 9am. With (as of 7pm) 174mm for the month so far, it is close to breaking its September monthly rainfall record of 181.4mm (records 1992-present).
Ballina are now up to 83.2mm since 9am, which makes it 187.2mm for the month, and therefore breaks its September monthly rainfall record.
If it records more than 92.0mm in the 24hr period to 9am tomorrow, then it will also be Ballina's wettest September day on record.


Edited by Seabreeze (04/09/2018 21:11)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470168 - 04/09/2018 21:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That is unbelievable..enough to really upset the country folk.With regard to the chatter about hail I only being a novice am predicting a hail active storm season with all this cold air around the east coast of Australia persisting up until now

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#1470178 - 05/09/2018 05:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
0.8mm overnight, event total for Salisbury now at 2.3mm

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#1470179 - 05/09/2018 06:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: tsunami]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Hi Glrno
I think the sun helps convection so at night it dies away. Next day as sun warms thd air convection starts again.hence showers developing again
May well be wrong. Ken will be able to clear this up



Thanks for that, yes as Ken was just saying. Sometimes in these setups, I have found in the past that sometimes you can have showers of a night and they clear of a day, and then this set up where the showers are more during the day and they clear up at night

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#1470182 - 05/09/2018 07:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Had some heavy showers overnight
All up a suprising 40mm
Did not see that comming yesterday morning
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470183 - 05/09/2018 07:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Sorry on closer inspection 48mm
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470184 - 05/09/2018 07:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Ok thanks. Just curious to know in your opinion in this event, given what we know. What would you think the snow level (if there was one)may have been for that location.

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#1470185 - 05/09/2018 07:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Going by EC, about 1800m at the time (versus Mt Kaputar's elevation of close to 1500m). Of course even a very small change in elevation can make a big difference as to whether a location gets snow or not.

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#1470186 - 05/09/2018 07:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1650
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
11mm here here so far from this event and quite persistent drizzle today. The grass is starting to green up too.
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1470188 - 05/09/2018 07:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour and event total 19.4mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470191 - 05/09/2018 08:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
38mls for us down here Sth Tweed which isn't the grand total for us with another colourful blob moving toward us from the coast.No thunder to report from this event.

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#1470192 - 05/09/2018 08:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Event total here 0.

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#1470193 - 05/09/2018 08:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rod H Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 44
Loc: Maudsland
19.56mm in Maudsland - Gold Coast Hinterland

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#1470197 - 05/09/2018 09:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all I got 5.5 mm at my place. Happy with that as the forecast was for between 1 and 5 mm . It looked like further west had better rain from the radar yesterday.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1470209 - 05/09/2018 13:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Event total here also sits at 0.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1470214 - 05/09/2018 14:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Light drizzle off & on. Enough to get my hair wet.

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#1470216 - 05/09/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 101
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Today's showers have delivered 6mm so far, hopefully more still to come.

But that 6mm was just enough to get me over the line and record 1000mm of rain for the year so far... smile
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ĎwetdreamsíÖ.

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#1470218 - 05/09/2018 14:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
gee how unlike Ballina to top the rainfall charts. Never been any different.

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#1470223 - 05/09/2018 16:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: BIG T]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: BIG T
gee how unlike Ballina to top the rainfall charts. Never been any different.


I cant work out why the rain was attracted to that region??

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#1470226 - 05/09/2018 17:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
End of week looks to be something abit more interesting than coastal showers. Not going to get too excited but if it were to come together could first thunderstorm of spring out there.

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#1470227 - 05/09/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Event total now 0.6mm.

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#1470232 - 05/09/2018 18:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Doubled our event total today....another 2.4mm in the gauge during the day brings event total to 4.7mm for Salisbury.

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#1470235 - 05/09/2018 19:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Bom forecasting a gusty storm for Brisbane on Saturday, ok then, lets see. Generous amount and anywhere west of ipswich does not have gusty in the forecast so have to say a slim chance at best
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1470236 - 05/09/2018 19:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Bom forecasting a gusty storm for Brisbane on Saturday, ok then, lets see. Generous amount and anywhere west of ipswich does not have gusty in the forecast so have to say a slim chance at best


Looks a possibility to me.

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#1470237 - 05/09/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
If there is a possibility of exceeding our 0.6mm today, bring it on.
Not holding my breath for it happen.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (05/09/2018 19:55)

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#1470238 - 05/09/2018 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Onshore showers bringing 3.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am and 4.8mm since 9am here. Showers about the local area early this evening -






Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Ballina are now up to 83.2mm since 9am, which makes it 187.2mm for the month, and therefore breaks its September monthly rainfall record [of 181.4mm].
If it records more than 92.0mm in the 24hr period to 9am tomorrow, then it will also be Ballina's wettest September day on record.
Ballina ended up with exactly 100mm in the 24hrs to 9am, therefore it also had its wettest September day on record (records 1992-present). Including the rain since 9am today, there's been 224.4mm for the month so far there. Worth mentioning that despite its short history, this would also be a very significant accumulation for September at coastal NENSW locations which have long histories (and in some cases would be record-breaking).

I've extended the dates of the thread to also cover the 7th and 8th, with possible thunderstorms as a trough moves across our region.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470240 - 05/09/2018 21:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
5.6mm here for the event, most being today and yesterday, quite patchy.

Those picks are beautiful seabreeze, I think South West Rocks will be my next weekend holiday.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1470248 - 06/09/2018 07:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 4.8mm, event to date 24.2mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470273 - 06/09/2018 12:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Saturday certainly looks interesting with a nicely timed trough and a bit of moisture around just hope there is not the usual worry of cloud cover inhibiting convection.

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#1470278 - 06/09/2018 14:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Below are observed rainfall amounts in SE QLD/NE NSW in the 96hrs up to 9am this morning (courtesy of The Early Warning Network).

Ballina came in with 235mm and Lake Ainsworth with 217mm.
There were localised 100-200mm falls along the NR coast, 25-100mm along many parts of the coastal fringe (penetrating further inland in NE NSW than SE QLD), 10-25mm just in from the coastal fringe in SE QLD, and 0-10mm elsewhere.

Also below is a photo I took of raindrops glistening on oak leaves after one of the heavier showers here yesterday:





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#1470292 - 06/09/2018 18:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
A nice downpour around 12.30 p.m (according to my daughter) has added 9.5mm in the gauge today, brings Salisbury event total to 14.2mm

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#1470293 - 06/09/2018 18:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Lovely Pic Ken

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#1470310 - 06/09/2018 21:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Love the green Ken. Don't see much of that out here.
Well, I have officially heard my first bladder cicada of the season. Spring has arrived.
Hope to see a few good chunky showers out here tomorrow afternoon and evening, and possibly into the night with the passage of the trough. Hope to hear a few rumbles too. 10mm would be nice. Here's hoping.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1470311 - 06/09/2018 21:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Cheers CirrusFibratus. It's definitely a nice place for a holiday, and being on a sizeable north-facing bay (a rarity along the coast south of Byron Bay) gives it a unique feel.

6.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. No rain here so far today.

Fingers crossed for a storm tomorrow, hopefully there won't be too much cloud about. It's the beginning of the season so I'll be pleased even if we only get a weak one here.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470326 - 07/09/2018 07:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm, event to date 24.8mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470360 - 07/09/2018 16:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lovely dark looking towards the SW.

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#1470361 - 07/09/2018 16:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Niice moderate rain with a few rumbles now. Nice to hear the sound of rain on the roof again.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1470365 - 07/09/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great to know you getting some, Warwick. Not getting my hopes up here though, seems to die in the bum coming off the range looking at Stapy.

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#1470366 - 07/09/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A gentle storm passed over this afternoon. 2.6mm since 9am. Photo as it was clearing away -


_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470390 - 07/09/2018 18:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Nice catch there Seabreeze

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#1470391 - 07/09/2018 18:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Sydney the place to be at the moment

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#1470410 - 07/09/2018 19:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Quite a widespread system when ya look at it , from the south coast all the way up here into this region we have even had some rumbles here from som weak thunderstorm activity and raining here as we speak

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#1470420 - 07/09/2018 20:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Good to finally have something abit different to the usual winter boredom. Watching that activity in the maranoa and warrego districts models suggest it will reach the coast early tomorrow.

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#1470422 - 07/09/2018 20:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
oldschool Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/03/2013
Posts: 24
Loc: Allora , QLD
We have hail in Allora.Small but hail none the less.

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#1470426 - 07/09/2018 21:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 551
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
This satellite water vapour image
https://weather.us/satellite/australia-south-pacific/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play
Fascinating how the southern weather extends up here.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1470439 - 07/09/2018 23:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thanks Gleno.

A noisy thunderstorm moved through here earlier this evening around 8:15pm. Lightning activity in it increased as it hit town. 6.8mm since 9am.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470444 - 08/09/2018 05:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
And BOM take gusty out of their storm forecast. They played that one for a while but really i thought they were a bit early in calling that, surprised they even said that so many days out.


Edited by paulcirrus (08/09/2018 05:50)
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1470445 - 08/09/2018 05:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Bring back the manual forecasts. This computer system they have now is a real drama queen
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1470446 - 08/09/2018 05:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Bring back the manual forecasts. This computer system they have now is a real drama queen

There is manual input to the forecasts as has been mentioned many times in here before. The word ďgustyĒ is something thatís manually added.

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#1470448 - 08/09/2018 07:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Headed out on my usual carers run with mum and we have rumbles to the west and approaching fast. Steady drizzle now
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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#1470452 - 08/09/2018 07:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm, event total 25.4mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470454 - 08/09/2018 08:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Very impressed here in Warwick! Pissing down at the present time with good rumbles and 2 close CGís. Checked my gauge at 0630 and had 13.2mm over the past day/day and a half. After that, we had a quick downpour and now this more significant cell passing over.
Been rumbling here for most of the night actually.
Yes Mad, it is nice to see a somewhat significant rain event this way. I hope you get a bit up your way too.
You might have a bit more than what I had also signalman. Looks like the radar was a bit more colourful up at the north end of town?
We just might break the curse of 17 straight months of below normal rainfall here my my backyard. Hereís hoping we get more sometime in the next few weeks to push us over the norm.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1470456 - 08/09/2018 09:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Warwick Eye - 18mm here in north-east Warwick for this event to 9.00am. You might have managed much the same with some extra into your gauge since 6.30am. Maybe a few more ml's before the clearance that appears to ne now approaching from the west. Cheers.

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#1470458 - 08/09/2018 09:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Not a drop all week. 😡. Completely over it!!!!
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1470459 - 08/09/2018 09:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Good to read Warwick getting a drink...we spent yesterday arvo / evening sitting outside under the stars having drinks with our neighbours here at Salisbury, no rain but a touch windy and cool instead. Raingauge event total now at 15.0mm, was still 14.2mm when i woke this morning, but we just received 0.8mm from showers since around 8.30 a.m.

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#1470460 - 08/09/2018 09:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes great to see some places out West getting some precip at last we are getting plenty here also this morning a further 12 mls.Storm shield has been activated for the coast though which is a shame

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#1470461 - 08/09/2018 09:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Another 6 mm since 9.00am here in north-east Warwick bringing the event total to 24 mm, just short of the inch. I think that will be it looking at the radar. Very welcome of course and now looking for some follow-up in the near future.

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#1470462 - 08/09/2018 09:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Not home atm but looking at Stapy we missed out again. Is this it for the day or any chance for something this arvo after a bit of heat?

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#1470464 - 08/09/2018 10:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I think it's a possibility still slightly unstable probably better chance if its less cloudy and some heat can build. Not totally convinced with ACCESS but if ACCESS was right that would be it for today.

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#1470465 - 08/09/2018 11:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cheers SteveO, sunny & warm in Hervey Bay atm.

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#1470467 - 08/09/2018 11:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Don't think this morning's observed sounding is out yet fingers crossed i have not heard a rumble yet...


Edited by Steve O (08/09/2018 11:41)
Edit Reason: Tinezone

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#1470470 - 08/09/2018 11:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5553
Some secondary convection can sometimes try to build up in the afternoon or early evening near the rear edge of a main cloudband as it clears out to sea despite its inhibiting effect in the morning. The last setup was similar i this respect.
Might be why 18z ACCESS-C tries to develop some stuff this afternoon behind the cloudband.
But there's also times that it doesn't happen at all.

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#1470472 - 08/09/2018 12:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A fast-moving, high-based storm with a little lightning passed over around 2:30am.
7.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am, courtesy of the three thunderstorms that moved through here.

On the ranges, the Glen Innes area did well with 25mm+ falls around there.

A southerly change is slowly moving through the northern MNC. It moved through here a short time ago. Convection has been building about the foothills of the ranges, with some cells starting to show on the radar (one near Bellingen just starting to let out some sparks).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470473 - 08/09/2018 12:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
My wife wasnt going to wash the sheets. I said itll be fine. Rains gone unless we get a storm later. Shes washing the sheets...i just looked at the radar. .....i could be in deep [censored] here
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1470477 - 08/09/2018 14:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 213
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Very steamy with on/off showers here.

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#1470481 - 08/09/2018 15:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Geez you have to be lucky to be under the right clouds to get this rain.... was at a mates place at Augustine Heights about an hour ago and they had a nice little downpour there, get home to Salisbury and not a thing here (road dry and gauge total unchanged). Same thing the other day when at home we got near 10mm during the day, yet at Morningside where i was working we got nothing like that....she's pot luck that's for sure.

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#1470493 - 08/09/2018 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
The better storms about today on the northern MNC formed ahead of the southerly change.
A hailstorm moved through the Bellinger Valley this afternoon around lunchtime affecting places around Urunga. I could hear the odd distant thunder roll from here. Videos and pics from the storm in the comments: https://www.facebook.com/bellingenweather/photos/a.487816447941345/1937927636263545/?type=3

Any storm that formed behind the change was short-lived. View of the convection westward after the change -

A very brief storm here this afternoon and a little light rain have brought 1.8mm since 9am.

Video of last night's hailstorm at Sandy Beach (near Coffs): https://www.facebook.com/john.bryson.5811/videos/1835832619804450/
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1470494 - 08/09/2018 22:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Signalman, about the same here at 24.4mm total after an additional 11.2mm after 0630.. Great way to start spring.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1470500 - 09/09/2018 03:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blinky_Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2008
Posts: 523
Loc: Beenleigh SEQ
Very heavy fog over Beenleigh tonight.
_________________________
Blinky Bill from Wombat Hill

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#1470502 - 09/09/2018 08:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4831
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 4 hour rain 3.4mm, event 29.0mm, which looks like being over now. Almost up to the Sept average of 32.0mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1470512 - 09/09/2018 12:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 334
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The rain/storms yesterday were very patchy. Had the car parked outside yesterday during the heaviest of the rain and it was so intense it cleaned the car, but 2km down the road we had barely any rain.
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

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#1470518 - 09/09/2018 17:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Salisbury event total 15.8mm....just what the yard needed, the grass might start growing back over the bare patches now. It's a shame there's bindii popping up now, but easy to spot the bright green weed amongst the brownish grass.

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#1470539 - 09/09/2018 22:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers / Rain areas followed by Scattered Thunderstorms - 3rd to 8th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
34.4mm in total for the event here. A video of yesterday afternoon's hailstorm at Mylestom (near Urunga): https://www.instagram.com/p/BncxGBwBGF6/
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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