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#1400939 - 07/01/2017 07:05 Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7107
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Honestly, this has to be the worst tropical basin in the world when it comes to tropical cyclones. The Atlantic, the east Pacific, the West Pacific (especially above the equator), the Indian Ocean and the Timor Sea all put it to shame, year after year, after year. Why is it so? Why is it, that 90℅ of the time conditions are so hostile for TC genesis in the Coral Sea yet in other Hurricane / TC hotspots around the world, such as those mentioned above, seem to be able to muster up at least some form of Typhoon / TC / Hurricane every year? I mean, I hope to come back to this thread after March and say well this year was an exception, but it still doesn't change the fact that the frequency of such events in the Coral Sea is so much lower than those around the world. There has to be a logical reason for this, I've still yet to come across one though.

By the way, I know people will blame the sub-tropical jet, the interaction with mid- lat troughs etc etc but that still doesn't explain why those other places don't seem to have as much of a problem contending with such conditions.

?

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#1407884 - 16/02/2017 05:34 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
Hi Mega
I just found your post this morning.
I have been asking that for decades and it is just getting worse every year.For the same reason that I like storms simply for the rain I always hope a cyclone will cross the coast at an unpopulated area and bring widespread(non destructive) rain. There is still time.


Edited by Hopefull (16/02/2017 05:36)

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#1456984 - 13/03/2018 14:48 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7107
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
bump

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#1456987 - 13/03/2018 15:18 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Honestly, this has to be the worst tropical basin in the world when it comes to tropical cyclones. The Atlantic, the east Pacific, the West Pacific (especially above the equator), the Indian Ocean and the Timor Sea all put it to shame, year after year, after year. Why is it so? Why is it, that 90℅ of the time conditions are so hostile for TC genesis in the Coral Sea yet in other Hurricane / TC hotspots around the world, such as those mentioned above, seem to be able to muster up at least some form of Typhoon / TC / Hurricane every year? I mean, I hope to come back to this thread after March and say well this year was an exception, but it still doesn't change the fact that the frequency of such events in the Coral Sea is so much lower than those around the world. There has to be a logical reason for this, I've still yet to come across one though.

By the way, I know people will blame the sub-tropical jet, the interaction with mid- lat troughs etc etc but that still doesn't explain why those other places don't seem to have as much of a problem contending with such conditions.

?


My guess is that there's a whopping great big desert to it's west and seeing as systems move west - east that is the killer.

Same for the NE Pacific? Very few hurricanes in that part of the world - and Southern - Central Atlantic.


Edited by Kino (13/03/2018 15:19)

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#1456995 - 13/03/2018 16:34 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7107
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yes I meant the Central Pacific, my bad. Obviously not the far east either (below the equator) because of the Peru current that runs up the South American coast. South Atlantic certainly not but central and north, yes. Anyway, my point is that after watching most of those active basins for a few years now, conditions of TC genesis seem to become more frequent and for longer periods of time, whereas with the Coral Sea it really feels as if you only get a couple of opportunities a year...and a less open window of opportunity for each before an upper trough sweeps by and takes it all SE.

Was the Coral Sea always like this, even in its earlier years? Were there ever any seasons that saw cyclones right throughout the season, instead of at the very end? I wonder, have we ever had an equivalent to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

I don't know. I think it could be an interesting discussion.

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#1456997 - 13/03/2018 16:37 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
Looks likes a subject nobody wanted to discuss.

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#1456999 - 13/03/2018 16:44 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Yes I meant the Central Pacific, my bad. Obviously not the far east either (below the equator) because of the Peru current that runs up the South American coast. South Atlantic certainly not but central and north, yes. Anyway, my point is that after watching most of those active basins for a few years now, conditions of TC genesis seem to become more frequent and for longer periods of time, whereas with the Coral Sea it really feels as if you only get a couple of opportunities a year...and a less open window of opportunity for each before an upper trough sweeps by and takes it all SE.

Was the Coral Sea always like this, even in its earlier years? Were there ever any seasons that saw cyclones right throughout the season, instead of at the very end? I wonder, have we ever had an equivalent to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

I don't know. I think it could be an interesting discussion.


In my years of watching, I don't recall and aggressive season unlike the Arafura/Timor and Indian seasons which can see numerous systems, and high end ones, giving them a flogging. The Coral Sea seems to breed them rare but big?

I wonder, also, what part the SPCZ plays in all of this - it basically runs right down through the Coral, N--S unlike the northern extension of the ITCZ which is more W--E. Perhaps that meridional aspect is bad for cyclogenesis in some way?

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#1457002 - 13/03/2018 17:12 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8539
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Just the way landmasses are positioned, how ocean currents behave, SSTs, a whole lot of factors. Conditions can be hostile everywhere not just the Coral sea. Don't forget that after the 2005/2006 active seasons in the Atlantic, they had a 7-8 year long hurricane drought, and this is unusual given that on average they get much more activity than here.

The other problem you have is the constant trade winds on the east coast of QLD, doesn't help.

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#1457878 - 19/03/2018 11:48 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
constant trade winds are good for cyclone formation, when mixed with Nw Monsoonal winds, helps with vorticity.
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#1457879 - 19/03/2018 11:50 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Also the Hurricane drought was not 12 years?

Hurricane Ike, Irene, Sandy and Issac all occurred in between years.

The real drought was Majors.
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#1457881 - 19/03/2018 12:08 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I honestly think its all is cycles like any weather pattern. I mean on average NW WA sees more cyclones however the coral sea does have its moments. Ive looked back and ive seen year after year of active seasons then year after year of maybe one in the CS. Then it switches back to over active...you have a opposite season in with the active or inactive periods
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#1457902 - 19/03/2018 15:34 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3200
Loc: Buderim
Did a bit of hunting and found this paper with a map of tropical cyclone activity for 1979 to 2008.

Coral sea does ok in cyclone generation, although SH Indian Ocean and NH Pacific ocean definitely have it beat. Surprising is that NE Pacific seems to be the best location for generating cyclones, but in a smallish area.

Hard to see variations in track density as many areas are solid green. Comparing North Atlantic to Coral Sea a couple things stand out. Very little penetration of cyclones from the east. Some penetration from Gulf of Carpentaria, but Gulf of Mexico does heaps better. GOM extends much further away from the equator, roughly equivelant to the NSW/QLD border, is wider E-W, and more open to hurricanes entering from the east and south.

Also there are a good number of hurricanes that are generated near Africa. Although it is hard to tell from the track maps I suspect maybe there are far more hurricanes approaching east American coast from way out, in contrast to Qld coast where a greater proportion of cyclones generated a long way out never make it this far west.

NW Pacific beats Coral sea due to significantly greater supply of warm water. Indian Ocean beats Coral sea a little, maybe due to having more westerlies near the equator, in contrast to SW Pacific which more often has easterlies along the equator. Less spin against the subtropical trade winds.

Overall I'd say the coral sea is a decent but not great place for Tropical Cyclone season, but cyclone impacts on the Qld east coast may be on the low side.

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#1458037 - 20/03/2018 12:23 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mike Hauber]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Did a bit of hunting and found this paper with a map of tropical cyclone activity for 1979 to 2008.

Coral sea does ok in cyclone generation, although SH Indian Ocean and NH Pacific ocean definitely have it beat. Surprising is that NE Pacific seems to be the best location for generating cyclones, but in a smallish area.

Hard to see variations in track density as many areas are solid green. Comparing North Atlantic to Coral Sea a couple things stand out. Very little penetration of cyclones from the east. Some penetration from Gulf of Carpentaria, but Gulf of Mexico does heaps better. GOM extends much further away from the equator, roughly equivelant to the NSW/QLD border, is wider E-W, and more open to hurricanes entering from the east and south.

Also there are a good number of hurricanes that are generated near Africa. Although it is hard to tell from the track maps I suspect maybe there are far more hurricanes approaching east American coast from way out, in contrast to Qld coast where a greater proportion of cyclones generated a long way out never make it this far west.

NW Pacific beats Coral sea due to significantly greater supply of warm water. Indian Ocean beats Coral sea a little, maybe due to having more westerlies near the equator, in contrast to SW Pacific which more often has easterlies along the equator. Less spin against the subtropical trade winds.

Overall I'd say the coral sea is a decent but not great place for Tropical Cyclone season, but cyclone impacts on the Qld east coast may be on the low side.


Intersting how there has been no cyclones near south america and weestern Afeica.
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Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
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#1470423 - 07/09/2018 21:09 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7107
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Tropical basins in the NH turning it on once again as far as typhoons and hurricanes go. Sure puts the Coral Sea to shame that's for sure.

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#1470427 - 07/09/2018 21:38 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I think that may change this year, based on nothing but a gut fueling.

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#1470434 - 07/09/2018 22:53 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18443
Loc: Burnett Heads
Expectation is the biggest issue with the Coral Sea. After several years of above average activity up until a couple of years back, people have high expectation for what is on average a quiet basin compared to others. The average annual crossing is around 1 system on the east coast. At some point it has to balance and that's what it's been doing.
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#1470436 - 07/09/2018 22:59 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7107
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Expectation is the biggest issue with the Coral Sea. After several years of above average activity up until a couple of years back, people have high expectation for what is on average a quiet basin compared to others. The average annual crossing is around 1 system on the east coast. At some point it has to balance and that's what it's been doing.


That's still a poor record compared to some other tropical basins around the world though. I also love how in the NH you can get hurricanes or typhoons as far north as say 35 deg or higher which is the equivalent of the NSW coast south of Sydney. When is the last time NSW came within cooee of a tropical cyclone from the Coral Sea? It never happens because a trough always drags it away.

All to do with landmass I believe...as is the reason for the NH experiencing so much more variety generally when it comes to the weather.

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#1470440 - 07/09/2018 23:30 Re: Question regarding Coral Sea Cyclones [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18443
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mega


That's still a poor record compared to some other tropical basins around the world though.


I wasn't disagreeing. That is exactly the point I was trying to make. On a global scale it is very quiet on average. Some people have far too high an expectation.
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