Page 9 of 11 < 1 2 ... 7 8 9 10 11 >
Topic Options
#1439601 - 29/10/2017 15:50 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I think if the longer-wave upper-trough system has strong-enough Jetstream boundaries between them and the sub-tropical ridge, a SSW is more likely to be isolated and not affect the weather layer so much. However, if convergence streams (near the tropopause) are weaker, higher temperature and wind anomalies may leak into the westerly belt. The polar jet I'm referring to.


Edited by Seira (29/10/2017 15:52)

Top
#1439922 - 30/10/2017 21:55 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Strange spike on ozone hole charts at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/ozone_hole_plot.png
around 19-21 October - difficult not to believe it's an error from instruments or transposition of data? otherwise ozone hole disappeared for what..a day?...then came roaring back to finish at about level for 2016.Seems a bit odd.

Top
#1440076 - 01/11/2017 18:52 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2856
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Looks as if were about to see the final warming and breakdown of the PV in next few weeks. I think this would be earlier than normal in the ozone hole era.





Zonal winds look set to take a nose dive over the next week also.



_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1440224 - 03/11/2017 23:41 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2856
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1441184 - 14/11/2017 22:53 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Zonal winds @ all monitored levels in stratosphere @ 60S as of 14/11 are still stronger than at same moment last year.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

By current forecasts, Zonal Wind at 50hPa,(remembering one suggested proxy for final warming being winds declining to 1ms at that level), look to last a bit longer - by last week of Nov though easterlies will be present@10hPa(again the same forecast from nasa).

If the final warming date of last year is known it might be possible to say if the above situation is a little odd - given the +ve anomylous heat flux the stratospheric vortex has been subject to this season, and the much larger ozone hole of 2016.

Top
#1465290 - 09/06/2018 09:51 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Currently into easterly phase QBO often associated with increased planetary wave activity in polar region.Always possibility of a weakened vortex and perhaps (hope)significant cold outbreaks later.

April EP flux looks to have been anonymously positive
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs7.shtml

May data should be released any day.
I thought on June 1st, wave activity seems to have actually penetrated well into the polar vortex, and perhaps again on the 3rd. (Select "Southern Hemisphere" atop the drop down menu then "Zonal Mean Zonal Wind & EP Flux" at bottom of list.)
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Top
#1470623 - 11/09/2018 21:58 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Looks close to qualifying as stratospheric sudden warming - select Southern hemisphere as the field then 10 hPa temperature change in a week from drop down list(Element) here

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity commenced at the beginning of this month.(available under same menu)


Edited by snowbooby (11/09/2018 22:00)

Top
#1470793 - 15/09/2018 15:20 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Looks close to qualifying as stratospheric sudden warming - select Southern hemisphere as the field then 10 hPa temperature change in a week from drop down list(Element) here

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity commenced at the beginning of this month.(available under same menu)

Ok...thanks smile . Just curious about one thing -- you mentioned "possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity" -- is there a definition or something clearly linked that I can find somewhere about "wave 2" smile ?

Thanks in advance for any feedback smile .

Top
#1470854 - 16/09/2018 16:01 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

Top
#1470862 - 16/09/2018 20:02 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: snowbooby]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

Thank you smile ... and thank you for clarifying. The word "zonal" does give me a better idea. It was because -- in the case of SSWs -- we're talking about the stratosphere [rather than the troposphere] that I was little uncertain. Also, with the exception of the Andes Mountains in South America, there is a lot less topographic forcing, which suggests other mechanisms at work.


Edited by Seira (16/09/2018 20:08)

Top
#1470924 - 18/09/2018 21:47 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

Thank you smile ... and thank you for clarifying. The word "zonal" does give me a better idea. It was because -- in the case of SSWs -- we're talking about the stratosphere [rather than the troposphere] that I was little uncertain. Also, with the exception of the Andes Mountains in South America, there is a lot less topographic forcing, which suggests other mechanisms at work.

Two of those alternative options could be strong surface uplift and upper-tropospheric jet-stream activity smile .


Edited by Seira (18/09/2018 21:50)

Top
#1471191 - 24/09/2018 17:29 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
A bigger question might be what fraction of SSW events can be attributed to dynamics unfolding higher in the stratosphere, or the mesosphere, versus beneath them.

Top
#1471251 - 25/09/2018 15:48 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
I could visualize the ssw in terms of

1. The tropospheric conditions which generate the waves which are capable of penetrating into the stratosphere

2. The tropospheric conditions which favor and influence the ability of these waves to penetrate into the stratosphere

3. Feedback processes by which the stratosphere may couple with the troposphere and permit exchange between the two, influencing

a. the ability of capable waves to continue penetrating the stratosphere

b. the propagation of stratospheric anomalies into the troposphere


Edited by snowbooby (25/09/2018 15:49)

Top
#1471703 - 30/09/2018 20:21 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ... I cannot help the direction some of the discussions are taking in this "General Weather" sub-forum...all I can do is provide / offer some genuine evidence-based material for research...perhaps add a spanner in the works occasionally...the rest I leave to other posters smile .

Top
#1471968 - 03/10/2018 22:33 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: Seira]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Originally Posted By: Seira
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ...


I am not aware of any influence from the mesosphere myself - dont doubt it at all.

Current PolarStratosphericVortex looks to be in condition typical of intensification event - negative temp anomalies descending towards lower stratosphere
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/st...JAS_SH_2018.png

and positive circumpolar wind anomaly upper to mid stratosphere
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/st...JAS_SH_2018.png

= lingering winter pattern tropospheric mid-latitudes?


Edited by snowbooby (03/10/2018 22:35)

Top
#1472042 - 04/10/2018 20:20 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: snowbooby]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Seira
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ...


I am not aware of any influence from the mesosphere myself - dont doubt it at all.

I found references to the mesosphere [with SSWs] using Google. The other thing is that for there to be an intrusion of air between any layer (troposphere, stratosphere or mesosphere), the interface or "pause" between them would need to be altered.


Edited by Seira (04/10/2018 20:28)

Top
#1472061 - 05/10/2018 00:10 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: Seira]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1936
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Seira
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ... I cannot help the direction some of the discussions are taking in this "General Weather" sub-forum...all I can do is provide / offer some genuine evidence-based material for research...perhaps add a spanner in the works occasionally...the rest I leave to other posters smile .


Ever looked at the effect of Coronal Holes on the Sun on Earths Troposphere ?

Top
#1472240 - 06/10/2018 18:53 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: marakai]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: Seira
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ... I cannot help the direction some of the discussions are taking in this "General Weather" sub-forum...all I can do is provide / offer some genuine evidence-based material for research...perhaps add a spanner in the works occasionally...the rest I leave to other posters smile .


Ever looked at the effect of Coronal Holes on the Sun on Earths Troposphere ?

No, I'd need to do some further research smile .

Top
#1472605 - 09/10/2018 22:03 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: Seira
In my previous post I mentioned the mesosphere and its possible / likely contribution to SSWs ... I cannot help the direction some of the discussions are taking in this "General Weather" sub-forum...all I can do is provide / offer some genuine evidence-based material for research...perhaps add a spanner in the works occasionally...the rest I leave to other posters smile .


Ever looked at the effect of Coronal Holes on the Sun on Earths Troposphere ?

No, I'd need to do some further research smile .

I undertook some additional research into the phenomenon mentioned by marakai [Coronal Holes]. I found the idea interesting and curious...informing, however another thing [issue] I noted was a reference to a feature of the solar magnetic field which I found difficult to understand.

Any magnetic field is not possible without its complementary and corresponding electric counterpart...with the cross-product of the two vectors giving the direction of force applied to a moving charged particle within the field, which also depends on the charge sign.

While the solar magnetic field provides the sheet-plasma of the solar "wind" -- within the solar ecliptic plane -- and is understood to take around 8 minutes to reach Earth's Bow-Shock region, I understand it is more likely to be interactions of higher-energy charged particles higher in the Earth's atmosphere...that gives rise to lower altitude effects, when a Coronal Hole is apparent.

As Coronal Holes suggest lower UV and X ray electromagnetism -- because they are holes when seen through those filters -- I think it would be probable secondary or tertiary showers of charged particles from the mesosphere...due to these holes...could impact SSW events smile .


Edited by Seira (09/10/2018 22:04)

Top
#1472656 - 10/10/2018 10:48 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 230
Spike in temp mid stratosphere polar region, according to Tokyo Climate Centre.
[Select Southern Hemisphere and 10 hPa from the drop down list]
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

They use nomenclature "over the south pole" - the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre page charts zonal mean for 60-90 and perhaps doesn't pick-up these sudden pin-point accelerations in temp.

The spike pretty much aligns with increased EP flux@100hPa(indicating wave activity) since early Sept(in the area poleward of the mid-latitudes). For august activity was perhaps overall anomalously negative
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs7.shtml
as you might expect when the PSV was showing signs of intensification(post #1471968)

Top
Page 9 of 11 < 1 2 ... 7 8 9 10 11 >


Who's Online
13 registered (Moz, TrentG, mysteriousbrad, Nic_Bri, Mcbobbings, StormQueen, Jimi, chasers addict, Timbuck, red earth, davidg, Corretto, GringosRain), 130 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502939 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image