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#1439601 - 29/10/2017 15:50 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7542
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I think if the longer-wave upper-trough system has strong-enough Jetstream boundaries between them and the sub-tropical ridge, a SSW is more likely to be isolated and not affect the weather layer so much. However, if convergence streams (near the tropopause) are weaker, higher temperature and wind anomalies may leak into the westerly belt. The polar jet I'm referring to.


Edited by Seira (29/10/2017 15:52)
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#1439922 - 30/10/2017 21:55 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 191
Strange spike on ozone hole charts at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/ozone_hole_plot.png
around 19-21 October - difficult not to believe it's an error from instruments or transposition of data? otherwise ozone hole disappeared for what..a day?...then came roaring back to finish at about level for 2016.Seems a bit odd.

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#1440076 - 01/11/2017 18:52 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2817
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Looks as if were about to see the final warming and breakdown of the PV in next few weeks. I think this would be earlier than normal in the ozone hole era.





Zonal winds look set to take a nose dive over the next week also.



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#1440224 - 03/11/2017 23:41 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2817
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
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#1441184 - 14/11/2017 22:53 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 191
Zonal winds @ all monitored levels in stratosphere @ 60S as of 14/11 are still stronger than at same moment last year.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

By current forecasts, Zonal Wind at 50hPa,(remembering one suggested proxy for final warming being winds declining to 1ms at that level), look to last a bit longer - by last week of Nov though easterlies will be present@10hPa(again the same forecast from nasa).

If the final warming date of last year is known it might be possible to say if the above situation is a little odd - given the +ve anomylous heat flux the stratospheric vortex has been subject to this season, and the much larger ozone hole of 2016.

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#1465290 - 09/06/2018 09:51 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 191
Currently into easterly phase QBO often associated with increased planetary wave activity in polar region.Always possibility of a weakened vortex and perhaps (hope)significant cold outbreaks later.

April EP flux looks to have been anonymously positive
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs7.shtml

May data should be released any day.
I thought on June 1st, wave activity seems to have actually penetrated well into the polar vortex, and perhaps again on the 3rd. (Select "Southern Hemisphere" atop the drop down menu then "Zonal Mean Zonal Wind & EP Flux" at bottom of list.)
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

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#1470623 - 11/09/2018 21:58 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 191
Looks close to qualifying as stratospheric sudden warming - select Southern hemisphere as the field then 10 hPa temperature change in a week from drop down list(Element) here

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity commenced at the beginning of this month.(available under same menu)


Edited by snowbooby (11/09/2018 22:00)

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#1470793 - 15/09/2018 15:20 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7542
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Looks close to qualifying as stratospheric sudden warming - select Southern hemisphere as the field then 10 hPa temperature change in a week from drop down list(Element) here

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity commenced at the beginning of this month.(available under same menu)

Ok...thanks smile . Just curious about one thing -- you mentioned "possibly a result of strong wave 2 activity" -- is there a definition or something clearly linked that I can find somewhere about "wave 2" smile ?

Thanks in advance for any feedback smile .
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#1470854 - 16/09/2018 16:01 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 191
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

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#1470862 - 16/09/2018 20:02 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: snowbooby]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7542
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

Thank you smile ... and thank you for clarifying. The word "zonal" does give me a better idea. It was because -- in the case of SSWs -- we're talking about the stratosphere [rather than the troposphere] that I was little uncertain. Also, with the exception of the Andes Mountains in South America, there is a lot less topographic forcing, which suggests other mechanisms at work.


Edited by Seira (16/09/2018 20:08)
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#1470924 - Yesterday at 21:47 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7542
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I dont have any favoured reference.

Wikipedia probably gives basic outline.

Just a search on zonal wave 2 or similar throws up links that may be of interest.

Thank you smile ... and thank you for clarifying. The word "zonal" does give me a better idea. It was because -- in the case of SSWs -- we're talking about the stratosphere [rather than the troposphere] that I was little uncertain. Also, with the exception of the Andes Mountains in South America, there is a lot less topographic forcing, which suggests other mechanisms at work.

Two of those alternative options could be strong surface uplift and upper-tropospheric jet-stream activity smile .


Edited by Seira (Yesterday at 21:50)
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