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#1470485 - 08/09/2018 17:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7235
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....but the SOI is still creating a persistent "mid winter like" large area high pressure cell over Aus for the 10 day outlook.

Need to be patient, (I reckon the sea temps up Broome/Darwin way are promising) ...but meanwhile the fire conditions for Gippsland/E Gippsland continue to threaten a bleak summer.

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#1470554 - 10/09/2018 11:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7235
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I guess we sit back and enjoy a couple of days of sunshine, then wait for about a week until something brews up over in the west?

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#1470556 - 10/09/2018 13:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1077
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Still nothing in the 10 day models other than a few systems clipping the south west. This is the ACCESS 10 day total rainfall forecast thru to the 20th.



Really need something big in the last 10 days of September or we will be seeing some significant rainfall deficiencies.

First 30+ for the season likely tomorrow in Mildura
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1470584 - 10/09/2018 22:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2584
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The cold nights still keep going average 1c to 8c, just want mild night of 12c would be nice and no more gas heating..

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#1470645 - 12/09/2018 12:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fair cold snap coming on Friday/sat! 528 thickness
Through southern vic! Not a lot of juice with it
Tho

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#1470649 - 12/09/2018 13:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2058
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Local BOM - snow above 700M, be coolish, Max 16C Sat and 14C Sun.

Felt Spring out N of Maffra yesterday, saw 24C.

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#1470666 - 12/09/2018 19:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2584
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope next front bring rain, as bit worried that NW WA is heating up sensitive ready to slip any warm to hot into SE Australia easy follow NW to SE jet-stream.

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#1470680 - 13/09/2018 09:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7235
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sale Met office mentioned that storms might accompany the change as it crosses Gippsland during Saturday.

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#1470840 - 16/09/2018 11:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7235
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking at the EC and AccG 10 day runs, looks to me after this present, and subsequent mid week high cells pass over the continent; that successive highs look to be more centred over Aus S coastline by next weekend. Hopefully a new phase of the southern oscillation index?

This should allow moisture from the NW to add fuel to the late September frontal systems and kick off the storm season?

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#1470883 - 17/09/2018 18:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1077
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Something better change quickly, this is the latest 10 day total rainfall forecast from ACCESS through to the 28th



If this prove to be a reality a massive number of Vic stations will be smashing lowest September rainfall records.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1470885 - 17/09/2018 18:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7235
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....ta logansi - and I can vouch that Maffra is definitely a contender.

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#1470886 - 17/09/2018 20:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1077
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
For those interested this page shows all the stations currently below record in Yellow: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/region.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&d=0&list=ms&subset=a#list

Note that SW Victoria is now has some of the largest differences after have an average to above average winter unlike the rest of the state - different concern re fire risk with high grass growth likely.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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