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#1471175 - 24/09/2018 12:56 Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At this stage not expected to be a big rain event(s) for Vic, but being the the first cut off low systems with any promise this spring, ....worthy of keeping an eye on I reckon:



The 700hPa RH charts show moisture sourced from the top end arriving into SE Aus ahead of the first cut-off. So has potential imo.

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#1471264 - 25/09/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
System 2 now looks delayed for the above timeline, cut-off low looks to develop off SE NSW on latest GFS/AccG run. Likes like we are set in for a cool period (at least here in SE Vic) over the outlook?

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#1471298 - 26/09/2018 10:07 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
System 1 looking like developing out in Tasman, system 2 looking to mature over SA and dive down W of Tassie on latest GFS.

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#1471317 - 26/09/2018 14:09 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This system High pressure doing something different not blocking any SW flow like last year too much N/NE trade wind..

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#1471398 - 27/09/2018 13:20 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The change to have created the first cut-off low is on our doorstep. Now looking sure to wind up in Tasman out near NZ and not impact Vic.



Following system looks to be broadscale on latest model runs, may create a rainy week for Vic, not big tallies at this stage, but better than the relentless NW'lies of the past few months.

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#1471475 - 28/09/2018 12:30 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Few showers along the divide ranges to south and not much for Northern Country Today at 12.30pm so next system during first week of October should bring some wet by Cut off low is flying from NW Perth WA crossing SA to Victoria.

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#1471478 - 28/09/2018 14:08 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2120
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Nil rain @ Sale so far, not much likely either.

If next Wed 3/10 on ACCESS comes off it will bring some
good news for local, and further East (Gippsland) farmers.

* This far out not 100% credence of course)

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#1471509 - 28/09/2018 18:56 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice period of light rain set in here for past 30 mins (guess 1.5mm so far), temp has plummeted from a mild sunny near 21C this morning to a chilly 9.1C with light westerly outside atm.

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#1471519 - 28/09/2018 20:35 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Feels late winter season cold night 8.3c at 8.30pm need heaters.

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#1471546 - 29/09/2018 08:44 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep CA, impressive how cold it got here last evening, had showers overnight giving us a 4mm tally. Handy spring showers.

This cold front No.1 hasnt formed a cut-off low yet, if it does - it will be out towards NZ imo.

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#1471554 - 29/09/2018 10:42 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2120
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
3.5mm in Sale, chilled right off round 1700hrs in front of some light showers.

Blustery 30kph gusting 39kph from the W @ East Sale BOM this morning, not brilliant for cycling straight into it ! grin cool

Scattered showers coming this way from the S/W but not Sale at this stage.

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#1471555 - 29/09/2018 10:57 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, looks like we are in the lee of Tassie.

Riding bikes this morning - mad!

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#1471610 - 29/09/2018 18:21 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cold breezy Sw'ly made golf difficult out this way - no rain.

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#1471611 - 29/09/2018 18:27 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Current MSLP chart:




downside is follow-up high pressure sitting higher in latitude than we'd hope, positive is that the next low pressure system looks to hold itself together to help Vic's rainfall deficiency over coming days?


Edited by Petros (29/09/2018 18:29)

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#1471747 - 01/10/2018 10:31 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The 2nd low pressure system for this thread (at Perth above) looks to decay into a general mess of potentially humid thundery weather over SA/Vic by Wednesday, then the "mess", assisted by a pair of weak/conveniently located high pressure cells looks to morph into a decent East Coast Low over SW NSW by Thursday?:



Feel free to start another thread on this if anyone is inclined.

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#1471750 - 01/10/2018 11:14 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Great thanks, my September rainfall is very shocking of only 2mm is only cold cell hail rain September ‎15th.

Hope this 1st Low from WA is pumping more moist from NW to NE when reach SE Australia WED with trough and move into NSW then to SW NSW to East Vic off shore.

2nd low looks stalling or decay in WA looks bit messy pattern.



Edited by chasers addict (01/10/2018 11:14)

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#1471754 - 01/10/2018 11:40 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
By October 6th the Polar Jet-stream is horrible.

1st Jetstream is more Westerly across Australia Content and 2nd jet-stream very far down in southern ocean near Antarctica lets the slim High Pressure sit well below Tasmaina and by Sunday 7th very rare to see long SE trade wind from East Victoria right through to Perth WA.

Also cold nights still continue from Thursday to Sunday between 5c to 8c.



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#1471761 - 01/10/2018 17:26 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Terrible rain deficiency in your area CA! Fire season will be severe if spring rains fail, we in Nth Gippsland did a bit better than your area last month - but still well below 1/2 average monthly rainfall.

The second low system you refer to above is actually the third, in terms of this thread (the first cut off out near NZ over the weekend). However that low pressure system is worth its own thread IMO.

Latest AccR now allowing the current "2nd" low pressure system currently out in the Bight, to marginally hold itself together as a closed low pressure system all the way to NSW where it is mooted to re-strengthen to be a system of interest to SE Vic/SE NSW?:



Edited by Petros (01/10/2018 17:28)

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#1471990 - 04/10/2018 11:02 Re: Vic - impact from a pair of low pressure systems 28/9/18 - 3/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Second low did arrive as per expected, a NSW event though:


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