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#1471246 - 25/09/2018 13:35 Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P)
Blis Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 22
Loc: Mt Sheridan
Is it just me or is it a bit early to be seeing something so low?

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html


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#1471257 - 25/09/2018 16:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 320
Loc: Karratha, WA
Wow! Interesting.

Darwin had an early rain this morning, in the Pilbara we also had a little event last week that didn't really register on the records, but we got three little showers just at our house. Verrrrrry unseasonal and very early. What is happening?

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#1471270 - 25/09/2018 19:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
The weather advice makes for an interesting read.

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#1471306 - 26/09/2018 11:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Pretty good looking cloud formation on Himawari over Somolons for this time of year!

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#1471307 - 26/09/2018 12:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Now upgraded to cyclone development warning! Weird more akin to a La Niņa ENSO than El Niņo.

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#1471311 - 26/09/2018 13:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Blis Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 22
Loc: Mt Sheridan
Looks like she may attempt to come this way, but wont make it. Has there ever been a September Cyclone?


Edited by Blis (26/09/2018 13:16)

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#1471312 - 26/09/2018 13:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Moving ESE at the moment.

Definitely interesting, but September/October cyclones in that area are not unheard of.
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#1471315 - 26/09/2018 13:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Moving ESE at the moment.

Definitely interesting, but September/October cyclones in that area are not unheard of.


Indeed they are not and no surprise it coincides with above average SST's east of PNG .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1471392 - 27/09/2018 11:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Actually they are just about unheard of. If the current system makes it west of 160E as a TC, it will be the first known September cyclone in the eastern Australian region, and only the second in the Australian region as a whole.

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#1471394 - 27/09/2018 11:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blair Trewin]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Actually they are just about unheard of. If the current system makes it west of 160E as a TC, it will be the first known September cyclone in the eastern Australian region, and only the second in the Australian region as a whole.


Cheers, thought as such.

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#1471397 - 27/09/2018 12:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1901
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1471402 - 27/09/2018 13:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7363
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Would be a big driver of westerly winds evident on Pacific equator circa 160E?

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#1471408 - 27/09/2018 15:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
TC Liua is born. This track map from the JTWC has it just crossing over into our AOR before losing its identity:



Still, it's very early in the year for a TC to form in this part of the world.
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#1471409 - 27/09/2018 15:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Historic stuff. Hope this crosses into AOR just for the record books.

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#1471422 - 27/09/2018 18:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley


One for the record books.
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The original donut hole

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#1471441 - 27/09/2018 21:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Incredible really. And with a bit of luck it may come far enough west as a trough system to give the NTC a drink.

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#1471445 - 27/09/2018 22:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
A rare out of season tropical cyclone outlook
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The original donut hole

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#1471463 - 28/09/2018 10:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14224
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Come on move a 1000klm west. We need rain badly, Fingers crossed it does make it this far.
I knocked up a database of cyclones in Australia and the only month we didn't have one was October. Would be nice to see that record broken.
_________________________
Oct 27mm
2018 Total 770mm






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#1471545 - 29/09/2018 08:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Track map

One again for the records, a tropical cyclone track map in September. It just managed to scrape over onto our side before losing its identity.

Quote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 6:59 am EST on Saturday 29 September 2018
At 6 am AEST Saturday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Liua with central pressure 1000 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.2 south longitude 160.0 east,which is about 300 kilometres south of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Liua is moving west at 11 kilometres per hour, and is expected to continue on this track and weaken further. The system poses nothreat to the Australian coast.

No further Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued.





Edit: This forum use to buzz with activity at the slightest whiff of a TC. It's a sign of the times that the name of this thread is still Invest 91P without a mod changing it to TC Liua. Where are you mods?


Edited by Inclement Weather (29/09/2018 08:49)
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#1471549 - 29/09/2018 09:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Assuming that it isn't upgraded on post-analysis, this won't be classified as an eastern Australian region TC (since there is no TC-intensity point west of 160E), but it got closer than any other September system has.

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#1471562 - 29/09/2018 13:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Liua (Coral Sea, 91P) [Re: Blis]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
I appreciate your analysis Blair. I agree it probably did run out of puff just before crossing the finishing line. Still, it's rare that we're even talking about a system near this part of the world at this time of year. I wonder if it's a portend for things to come. There's certainly a lot of heat out there.
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