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#1471470 - 28/09/2018 11:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
chamellieon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2010
Posts: 113
Loc: Brisbane North East
I'm heading down to Lismore on Saturday morning til Monday morning, so I'm hoping these saturday forecasts kick off!
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#1471473 - 28/09/2018 12:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Any thoughts on the set up today
Definitely warm
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#1471476 - 28/09/2018 13:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
What time does the airport sounding come available. Has been abit confusing looking at it in the aviation section and the date is 27th today being the 28th?

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#1471477 - 28/09/2018 13:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Rumblings above.

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#1471483 - 28/09/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Steve O
What time does the airport sounding come available. Has been abit confusing looking at it in the aviation section and the date is 27th today being the 28th?

That's because the timestamps are in UTC (GMT) since using one standard time reference for all locations regardless of timezone makes things far easier with many meteorological and aviation products. Simply add 10hrs to the UTC time to convert to AEST (or 11hrs for EDT). For example, 2300 UTC Thursday = 9am Friday AEST.

The sounding typically becomes available on the web after around 10:45am or so depending on when the balloon bursts or when the Bureau observer's finished quality control editing of the sounding (the raw realtime sounding is available as the balloon's still going up but isn't available on the public web).

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#1471484 - 28/09/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2460
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Steve O
What time does the airport sounding come available. Has been abit confusing looking at it in the aviation section and the date is 27th today being the 28th?


Hi Steve the soundings are always in Zulu or UTC time which we are +10hours. Soundings are usually available all going well and data has been collected around 1100 . They usually only release one a day as a cut back but on potential storm days they will do another in the afternoon.

Just been sitting back a lurking for a while. Decided it was time for a bit of chill out.
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#1471487 - 28/09/2018 14:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2460
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Haha Ken you beat me . I had to relog in.
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#1471489 - 28/09/2018 15:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 55
Loc: Redlands
Black core on the cell at Caboolture.

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#1471490 - 28/09/2018 15:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Just pulsey crap today.

Tomorrow is the day for you guys.

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#1471491 - 28/09/2018 15:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Models look terrible for tomorrow, especially compared to yesterday. Still a decent set-up for slow-moving hail dumps though.

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#1471492 - 28/09/2018 15:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Thanks,yea that would make sense haha. Cheers might be the odd rumble around today.

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#1471493 - 28/09/2018 15:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Models look terrible for tomorrow, especially compared to yesterday. Still a decent set-up for slow-moving hail dumps though.


At least there's frontal support tomorrow unlike today's crap. Wouldn't be surprised to see a line of storms move across border areas and possibly scrape southern SEQ into the late afternoon/evening even though the SE change itself doesn't come through until overnight.

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#1471494 - 28/09/2018 15:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
The change proper is late, especially for northern parts of SEQ. But some level of troughing/convergence running through western parts even from mid day on should be able to get a decent line of storms going. Cape of 1500+ near the coast seems very good for late Sept? And should help support the movement of storms towards the coast ahead of the convergence/troughing/SEchange.

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#1471505 - 28/09/2018 18:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
How come nothing happened today??

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#1471506 - 28/09/2018 18:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: gleno71
How come nothing happened today??

There were actually localised storms near the western and northern parts of our region. But one of the things that stood out for me the most today was that most of the moisture was confined to a fairly shallow layer near the bottom of the boundary layer and it was quite dry from that point up. Shear was also weaker which caused most storms to be shorter-lived pulse storms.

This was in complete contrast to say Wednesday which featured much deeper moisture, much stronger shear and steering winds from the genesis regions.

And welcome back Colin smile


Edited by Ken Kato (28/09/2018 18:54)

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#1471508 - 28/09/2018 18:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury

I'd particularly like to hear some thoughts about how this set-up was able to deliver line after line of hailstorms for the GC region for almost 8 hours well into the night.

Wednesday didn't have much going against it at all. We had pretty cold air aloft which together with the mild moist onshore flow helped with the instability, very good moisture to depth which helped a lot, strong shear which likely helped with the longevity of some of the storms, and clearer breaks in the morning cloud cover which helped with the heating. No clearly-defined synoptic triggers such as a front though so airmass thunderstorms were the result with some being strong. The soundings for that day looked good for a healthy scattering of storms in southern parts of our region.

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#1471510 - 28/09/2018 19:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
I think Saturday will still feature storms in our region, some possibly becoming strong, despite a number of niggling potential complicating factors that could interfere.

These potential complicating factors include ACCESS-C trying to move some patchy activity through early in the morning while EC doesn't have much (but both have a mix of clear & cloudy areas in our region in the morning) and a couple of shallow isothermal layers or perhaps even inversions aloft which updrafts will have to overcome.

But shear is strong particularly in the south so if any activity got going, there'd be the potential for severity. Another possibility is that storms might try to start forming a bit of a band or squall line (and I think Mega mentioned this earlier as well) as per ACCESS-C's current scenario due to the wind profile with the deep slab of westerlies aloft.
If extensive storms do manage to occur, it's something I'd have to consider given that I'm going to try and go to Riverfire.

But one of those setups where any one of those complicating factors could make a fairly big difference.

Also looking like some locations (mainly in the north) could also see pretty enhanced rainfall from convection/thunder embedded in the post-frontal showery/rainy mess anytime between the wee small hours of Sunday morning and Sunday evening (also resulting in a very cool day on Sunday).

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#1471516 - 28/09/2018 20:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1127
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Looks a cracking setup to me. If this was late nov / early dec Id be excited.

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#1471517 - 28/09/2018 20:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gleno71
How come nothing happened today??

There were actually localised storms near the western and northern parts of our region. But one of the things that stood out for me the most today was that most of the moisture was confined to a fairly shallow layer near the bottom of the boundary layer and it was quite dry from that point up. Shear was also weaker which caused most storms to be shorter-lived pulse storms.

This was in complete contrast to say Wednesday which featured much deeper moisture, much stronger shear and steering winds from the genesis regions.

And welcome back Colin smile


Cheers for that Ken.

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#1471518 - 28/09/2018 20:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2460
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Thanks Ken. I also had to put my Dad into an aged care home and that takes a lot out of you, so I was snapping pretty badly. 🤯

One thing I like if things can pull off and come together tomorrow afternoon/evening is the cold upper temps of minus -44C. We could see a repeat of the hail drifts that looked like snow in some places. I always liked the old warm fronts colliding with the cold changes especially the one set for this Sunday.

See how it pans out.
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