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#1471520 - 28/09/2018 20:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1134
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I just read the storms should roll in late in the day , is there a sneaky chance of two rounds, one earlier on?

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#1471529 - 28/09/2018 23:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 400
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Quote:
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, possible in the morning but most likely in the afternoon and evening. The slight chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, however gusty thunderstorms are more likely in the late afternoon and evening, with storms possibly severe. Light winds becoming northerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.


Quite possibly the longest daily forecast summary I have seen on the Brisbane page. Here's hoping tomorrow's weather is just as enthusiastic grin
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1471532 - 29/09/2018 00:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A high-based thunderstorm came through here late tonight. Anywhere from Hat Head in the south to Urunga/Bellingen in the north was in the line of storms, with the highest concentration of lightning around the Macksville/Nambucca area. Small hail was reported and photographed at Nambucca Heads.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1471533 - 29/09/2018 05:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Guess thats one thing I'm not too keen on today is where yesterday there was some low level moisture but very a very shallow layer. Then today its the oppisite dry low levels but moisture is available in the mid levels which would keep things high based and even though thunderstorms will occurr I have my doubts that it will be epic.

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#1471534 - 29/09/2018 05:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1586
Loc: Australia
Is capping a issue today? I know that word hasn't been mentioned for a good 8 months or so lol

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#1471535 - 29/09/2018 05:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea Ken mentioned on the last post about inversion. Coastal areas will be more subject to low level capping, thats what I was getting at in my post that I feel storms might form above that layer and be high based.


Edited by Steve O (29/09/2018 05:57)

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#1471536 - 29/09/2018 07:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
A high-based thunderstorm came through here late tonight. Anywhere from Hat Head in the south to Urunga/Bellingen in the north was in the line of storms, with the highest concentration of lightning around the Macksville/Nambucca area. Small hail was reported and photographed at Nambucca Heads.


I watched that storm roll through from Cresent Head, had some crawler lightning down here with some very light rain that didn't amount to much. Managed to fire a few shots.
Here is pic, unfortunately it's a link to my Flickr account, as I'm working of my mobile phone.
https://flic.kr/p/2aqLCju
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Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1471540 - 29/09/2018 08:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4752
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain - nil, Event total - Trace.

Noting on Brisbane's 17Z temp trace, middle levels have warmed since yesterday ( more stable ), with a surface temp of around 30C needed to produce and maintain TS locally.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct146.0(95)YTD867.6(928.6)

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#1471542 - 29/09/2018 08:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 400
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Beautiful shot Eddy, love the contrast in light.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1471543 - 29/09/2018 08:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 88
Loc: noosaville
Yesterday was a bit too pulsey but that little storm near caboolture sure did look the goods for about 30mins. Can't wait to see what this arvo brings!


IMG_9121-HDR by George Berg, on Flickr

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#1471544 - 29/09/2018 08:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Eddy not sure if this will work for you but I use desktop mode on my phone to use flickr to access sharing options to get bb code.
Also greats pics.

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#1471547 - 29/09/2018 08:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD

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#1471551 - 29/09/2018 09:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 824
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Great shot gberg , lookin forward to some action around here later at least it looks like that crappy patchy stuff that was heading up here to potentially spoil things might have made its way out to sea.

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#1471552 - 29/09/2018 10:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
I agree, nice short gberg!

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#1471553 - 29/09/2018 10:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
I think most factors look good for a number of locations in SEQ getting a thunderstorm later today with some lucky people getting a strong or severe one.
Should be some showery conditions spreading north from the wee small hours of Sunday morning behind the change & persisting through the day, possibly tending to some patchy rain areas for a time in some areas with locally enhanced falls (aided by the upper trough pivoting up through NSW).

Having said that, if storms do manage to form a squall line (although this depends on adequate low level moisture as well), the dominant threat may be mainly restricted to strong winds... unless the line had decent breaks in it or some discrete cells managed to form in which case, larger hail would be a greater risk in addition to the wind threat).

Soundings suggest many of them will probably start off as high-based ones while they're inland (with the main threat being strong winds) although some might tap into the better low-level moisture as they get close to the coast & put down roots with lower bases.

The partly sunny skies this morning will help.

Just hoping any activity won't be too premature & cause convective overturning... and also hoping it won't come in the form of a big cloudy band which would ruin things a bit.

The WSW steering flow looks reasonable also as does the stronger shear in the south.

The overnight timing of the change isn't ideal but I'd rather it come through late than too early. The latter often shuts down storm potential altogether.

As for capping, there looks to be some of the usual low level capping near the coast but as is often the case with these kinds of setups where you have reasonable steering winds, I don't think it'd be enough to significantly reduce the extent of storms.

Below is a forecast sounding for Brisbane at 4pm this afternoon (ignore most of the severe weather indices in the panels and the analogue matches with past events except for the thermodynamic ones since they're derived from wind profiles in the northern hemisphere & don't apply here) which shows the good moisture aloft and a thunderstorm map:





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#1471558 - 29/09/2018 11:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
After almost clear sunny morning, clouds building to the west. 30C, 38%RH & NW breeze. Thanks for posting info Ken, map looking encouraging for us out here.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (29/09/2018 11:51)

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#1471559 - 29/09/2018 12:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 824
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes nice work Ken.A chunky looking cell already visible from here West of Lismore spitting out some lightning as we speak

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#1471561 - 29/09/2018 12:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 200
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Looking forward to some storms later on. So far we have completely missed out on any rain the last week. Most grass is dead here.

Quite hot an muggy now. It just feels like something is coming.


Edited by Ahab (29/09/2018 12:33)

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#1471566 - 29/09/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Overcast now with some fat drops.
Too early for my liking.

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#1471567 - 29/09/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Showers and Storms - 26th to 30th September 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2204
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Storms have formed just east of the ranges and intensifying fast. They're going to have to work hard to become severe as there isn't much room for them to play with, although steering is more SE'ly than E'ly for weaker cells so there will be more land to cover that way.

Looks very scrappy so far, can't say I'm impressed by how the day is panning out. Still lots of time to go. The axis of the upper trough is also flatter so I can see more storms forming after these ones well into the evening.

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