Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1471765 - 01/10/2018 18:07 NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Looking at last like a bit of a break in the east of the state with widespread showers and rain. Nothing too impressive but in these dry times 25mm is something to get excited about!
A slight chance of a weak ecl might be on the cards too, which could give an upgrade if things play out well.


Edited by Seabreeze (08/10/2018 14:49)
Edit Reason: extended date

Top
#1471768 - 01/10/2018 18:40 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Nice thread start Floodhunta.
Yes, something is certainly on the cards this week. Models have been solid for a rain event. The totals vary, but it's clear there could be a decent small fall this week. Maybe even something a bit better than small.
I'm just hoping that the areas that really need it, get it.

Top
#1471769 - 01/10/2018 19:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Last night EC looked amazing, today itís ACCESS. Looks like the north coast will do very well again, hopefully that EC comes off and Sydney and south cop it.

Top
#1471770 - 01/10/2018 19:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
BoM watl looks pretty good for most of the state, the usual ramp up of totals the closer to the coast you get. This is also the first time the model has shown significant falls along the entire NSW coast since winter of '16?

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp (Need to click on the 8 day totals)

Top
#1471774 - 01/10/2018 19:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This is the first 'event' thread in a while - since June in fact.

The patterns have shifted. The models for the next 10-14 days looks more Autumnal than Spring-like, with highs to the South and troughs dipping into NSW and the Tasman. In fact, I think that the pattern shifted after mid August, with high pressure over us rather than to the North. Now they've shifted further South.
Maybe this Soring won't follow the recent pattern of dry with early heat. We shall see in due course.

Top
#1471778 - 01/10/2018 20:13 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, if this event comes off then maybe thereís a change in patterns?

Top
#1471780 - 01/10/2018 20:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
GFS rainfall forecast for the next 5 days:

GFS Stormcast


Edited by Snowmaker (01/10/2018 20:19)

Top
#1471782 - 01/10/2018 20:22 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
GFS looks miserable but it was the most undercooked model.

Top
#1471785 - 01/10/2018 21:11 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Kino
GFS looks miserable but it was the most undercooked model.


I think GFS looks slightly better than the others if anything! Its indicating at least 50-75mm for both yours and my areas. Good for us! This afternoon's BOM forecast is only indicating up to around 50mm for both the illawarra and Sydney.


Edited by Snowmaker (01/10/2018 21:13)

Top
#1471787 - 01/10/2018 21:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The latest Access shows a bullseye (80+ mm) over the Central Coast for Friday, with 50 mm over Northern Sydney. Hope it comes off.

It shows a wet unstable pattern sticking around to the end of its run.



Edited by Steve777 (01/10/2018 21:28)

Top
#1471811 - 02/10/2018 08:10 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Substantial upgrade for all models overnight, with ACCESSR now progging 20-80mm for southern mid north coast through to the south coast PLUS inland parts for Thursday.

Top
#1471813 - 02/10/2018 09:00 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
GFS still looking good with widespread areas of 50mm+ around the Illawarra, Sydney and CT areas, with a bullseye of 100-125mm just inland of the Illawarra

GFS Stormcast

Top
#1471818 - 02/10/2018 09:49 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Antarctic Whaler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 132
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Can't wait to see what this bloomin' event has in store for us Tablelanders wink

Long-gone is the drought sh*t, thankfully!


Edited by Seabreeze (02/10/2018 18:37)
Edit Reason: derogatory word
_________________________
ďBelow 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.Ē

Top
#1471822 - 02/10/2018 10:32 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
A very nice rainfall forecast by the BOM over an 8 Day period.

Top
#1471827 - 02/10/2018 11:36 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The event does seem to be firming up. The last couple of 'events' have fizzled out as we got closer to them, at least around here, but it's not happening this time.

In the last couple weeks I've held back from watering the gardens and lawns because rain was forecast in a few days, only to end up getting just a light passing shower or two or, like the long weekend, nothing. So this morning I thought I'd go ahead and do some hosing as the lawns were starting to look a bit dry again. Maybe I'll have the car washed to make sure.

----

It was a sunny, cool and sea breezy weekend. The pattern continues today. Until the sea warms up a bit, days are going to struggle to get past 20-21 on the coast on days like today. There's warm air about, Mt Boyce is near 21 degrees, equivalent to 28 at sea level.

Top
#1471829 - 02/10/2018 12:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Originally Posted By: Steve777

In the last couple weeks I've held back from watering the gardens and lawns because rain was forecast in a few days, only to end up getting just a light passing shower or two or, like the long weekend, nothing. So this morning I thought I'd go ahead and do some hosing as the lawns were starting to look a bit dry again. Maybe I'll have the car washed to make sure.


Got any roofing planned? Some outdoor sports perhaps? laugh


Ho hum sort of day. 24 here locally at Macquarie Park, but cooler in the coast with the sea breeze. I note that OH has no wind observations at the moment, but it's most likely a NE breeze. It looks like the sea temp is still around that 17-19c range for another week at least

Top
#1471833 - 02/10/2018 13:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Slightly above average temperatures of the NW coast and to the North means that we will be seeing more North-West flows coming into the numerous lows that are predicted to move through driven by the heat troughs.


A North-West flow is active in this event better than the last few systems. I think the early season heat with the Fitrzoy crossing reaching the 3rd highest 40+ reading, has helped our cause.

Top
#1471891 - 02/10/2018 21:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Damn muggy tonight, first time in ages. Great sign for our rain event!

Top
#1471894 - 02/10/2018 22:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest ACCESSG is INSANE! Would see flooding along the coasts from Jervis Bay to Mid North Coasts if that comes off. Love how the trough/low sits there for a good 3-4 days just pumping rain over us.

ACCESSR is also encouraging, with substantial falls well inland.

In fact all models are pretty gunning for a decent event, now itís just timing and location. But most bullseye the Illawarra, Metro and Central Coasts.

Top
#1471899 - 03/10/2018 01:36 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
With soil moisture so low I think riverine flooding is unlikely. Flash flooding more the issue potentially.
Tonight models notably show a firming of the event to the central portions of the coast. NW Inland looks ok too. Position of the low or trough will be critical - letís hope it abuts the coast and does not drift too far offshore.


Edited by Floodhunta (03/10/2018 01:40)

Top
Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
42 registered (bbowen, Squeako_88, Gringo2412, Steve O, Homer, Steve777, Manly, logansi, kathrynsview, Sandbank, petethemoskeet, Mathew, Sidney, GrayHorseRanch, Lee@Hazo, StormQueen, Dr Philosophy, Dribbles, Mad Elf #1.5, Sbv72, DarrylS, Kino, Timbuck, WeatherNut96, doogasnow, Thunderstruck, Flowin, Longys, Antarctic Whaler, snoopydoo, RC, weatheriam, FoggyNights, Josh R, Westy80, Bone Dry, MattS, Colin Maitland, 4 invisible), 258 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Bernd_Northrhine-Westfalia_Germany, lobione, Robbie
Forum Stats
29735 Members
32 Forums
24028 Topics
1506971 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image