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#1471900 - 03/10/2018 02:10 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8573
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
OCF officially predicting 136mm for Obs hill, similar totals for most stations in eastern SYD and the Illawarra. As has been mentioned already, the positioning of the trough/low is critical in this scenario but it's a significant event nonetheless. Lightning is being detected in the NW of the state underneath a thick cluster of cloud.

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#1471901 - 03/10/2018 05:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Flodge Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 90
Loc: Camden, NSW
The Appin radar has gone offline. Could that be a sign??

Iíll take any rain that comes. I just hope itís steady. We picked up 25mm in a localized storm last week and it caused a fair bit of erosion. The old lawn is pretty delicate in places at the moment (but it is greening beautifully)

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#1471905 - 03/10/2018 06:58 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1187
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like the change won't get here until very late today, or overnight.
Rainfall from this event is looking more promising now with the upgrade.
Hopefully our friends in the Cessnock area in particular get some, despite being only just over 20Ks away as the crow flies, they have received considerably less from recent events.

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#1471914 - 03/10/2018 07:54 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Massive downgrade on all models overnight, pushing it more north again. But still hoping.

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#1471919 - 03/10/2018 09:34 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 629
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
BoM contact has noted a ramp up in the models, more for the mid North coast and the Hunter. Some concern Re rain and wind potential.

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#1471927 - 03/10/2018 11:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4534
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I can see it now. The updated 4pm Sydney forecast for tomorrow.

Chance of an isolated drizzle patch
0.2 to 1mm


If you're lucky.
_________________________
Oct Rain. 75.3
YTD-810..1 mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm





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#1471931 - 03/10/2018 14:47 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Floodhunta
BoM contact has noted a ramp up in the models, more for the mid North coast and the Hunter. Some concern Re rain and wind potential.


Thatís what I said 🤔🤔🤔 anyways Iím still hoping

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#1471933 - 03/10/2018 15:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 973
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018100300:0:192:syd:nul#sc




Edited by Perfect Storm (03/10/2018 15:44)
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If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

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#1471935 - 03/10/2018 15:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yasssssssss perfect

Raining here lightly

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#1471937 - 03/10/2018 16:11 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
That's a large band of lightning active storms marching through the west of the state at the moment.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/nsw (will update)


Edited by Homer (03/10/2018 16:13)

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#1471938 - 03/10/2018 16:16 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Perfect Storm]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 56
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018100300:0:192:syd:nul#sc




This looks great! But it doesn't seem to be consistent with the GFS stormcast 3 hourly interval rain forecast, or with this GFS forecast for Nowra?
GFS Nowra

A little confused! Looks good nonetheless

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#1471939 - 03/10/2018 16:17 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Perfect Storm]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 518
Loc: nowra NSW
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.




Not quite. Most of that rain is expected on the last day of the model run ( Oct 11 ) from a second long SE fetch / ECL. Only about 20-30mm forecast for this next day or two.
_________________________


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#1471941 - 03/10/2018 16:52 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: lightning chaser]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 973
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: lightning chaser


Not quite. Most of that rain is expected on the last day of the model run ( Oct 11 ) from a second long SE fetch / ECL. Only about 20-30mm forecast for this next day or two.


Gah, how embarrassing. I was at work and didn't get time to look into it. Should've changed the hours tab to see whether it was within the next few days.

Thanks for pointing that out. smile

Now if only there were a way to remove that GFS run picture, lol.
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

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#1471942 - 03/10/2018 16:54 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 446
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like the trough is really firing over the Western Side of the state. Hopefully it may reach a mesoscale state and drag its self to us over night but that's probably a pipe dream.
Reached a very warm high of 28.4 degrees considering cloud cover for most of the day. Hopefully heat can stay for overnight so we have a heat base for tomorrow and maybe a thunderstorm.


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#1471943 - 03/10/2018 17:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6969
Raining pretty heavily here woohoo!!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1471946 - 03/10/2018 17:20 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Raining pretty heavily here woohoo!!


And this is just the entrť!!


Edited by Homer (03/10/2018 17:20)

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#1471949 - 03/10/2018 18:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I think this could get interesting for the Hunter.

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#1471950 - 03/10/2018 18:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Liking this early rain and the fact that new bands are developing in waves. Main part of trough still well inland - hopefully bodes well.

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#1471958 - 03/10/2018 19:26 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 629
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
2mm to start with in Bowral. Tomorrow looks good!

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#1471959 - 03/10/2018 19:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Those storms and showers out West are delivering some useful totals. Broken Hill had over 30 mm in 15 minutes around 7:00 PM. Albury has had 23 mm, although these two heavy falls seem to be isolated. However, a few other places in the West and SW of the State have received falls over 5 mm.

----

Warm and cloudy today, 27 degrees on the car thermometer around 3:00 PM. That's the last of the warmth for a few days. It was raining lightly late this afternoon, but around Sydney there are just a few readings around 1 mm or less.


Edited by Steve777 (03/10/2018 19:34)

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