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#1471962 - 03/10/2018 20:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Isnít that Broken Hills first rains for the year? Thought Iíd read somewhere that they hadnít seen rain yet?

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#1471964 - 03/10/2018 21:02 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 446
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
No the fact was the was that it had only rained 24.6mm so far this year and as of right now this event has produced 33.4mm which is absolutely terrific. Which saved them from the lowest ever rainfall recorded annually with 58.3mm(Broken Hill Airport) as of now compared to 57.4mm (1940) in the now closed Broken Hill (Patton Street)(closed in 2015) site these sites are 2.8km from each other. Although records there span from 1889 in the Patton St.


Edited by ashestoashes (03/10/2018 21:02)

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#1471965 - 03/10/2018 21:08 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2211
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Jeez the cloud cover looks great on the satellite visual atm. Hoping everything holds together for the next few days.
I'm actually heading to Broken Hill tomorrow as long as the flight does not get delayed due to weather, will be good to have a chat with some of the locals about the storms earlier today.

Will pass on any info I get.

0.2mm here so far to start off the event.


Edited by Marts (03/10/2018 21:13)

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#1471972 - 03/10/2018 23:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 56
Loc: Bowral
Broken Hill AWS shows 15mm of that rain falling in 3 minutes! That has surely got to be close to a rain rate record? Some serious flash flood would have occurred from that

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#1471975 - 04/10/2018 08:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 601
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Constant light rain here over the last two hours, just a pity it looks like clearing away around 10am. It will take a lot more rain to live up to the predictions that we have had.

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#1471976 - 04/10/2018 09:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2839
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest ECMWF(12Z) & ACCESSR(18Z) have us smack bang in the middle of the bullseye, especially the north shore/northern beaches.

12Z ECMWF Next 48hrs


18Z ACCESSR Next 48hrs


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (04/10/2018 09:30)
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#1471978 - 04/10/2018 09:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Now we wait and see where the Low forms. That'll guide where the best falls are at.

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#1471980 - 04/10/2018 09:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
One tool I use for LLCC development is lightning - usually where storms are developing in clusters within embedded stuff indicates strong forcing happening.

Cluster of lighting off the Central Coast at the moment worth watching.

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#1471981 - 04/10/2018 09:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.

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#1471982 - 04/10/2018 09:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 601
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
6.5mm here so far, and clearing from the NW. Still waiting for the 'real' rain.

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#1471983 - 04/10/2018 09:57 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3184
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Isnít that Broken Hills first rains for the year? Thought Iíd read somewhere that they hadnít seen rain yet?


Reminds me of what I now believe is an Urban Myth, maybe Rural Myth (and probably duplicated in other parts of the world).

When I was young we were told the story of the kindergarden kids playing at lunch one day at the Broken Hill school when it started raining. The kids had never seen rain before and ran terrified to teachers and classroom.
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#1471985 - 04/10/2018 10:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
But the big rains ar'nt going to fall where they realy need it.shame.
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#1471987 - 04/10/2018 10:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Stormy3]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2618
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
But the big rains ar'nt going to fall where they realy need it.shame.


We don't know that yet, the event has barely started.

Anyway, how good does that SatPic look? First time in ages we've had lows on the west & east coasts. Hopefully they stick around as long as the bloody ridges do.

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#1471988 - 04/10/2018 10:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There were extensive falls of 20+ mm in the far West of the State to 9:00 and more falls between10 and 20 mm. Menindee scored 50 mm, about 20% of its average annual rainfall.

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#1471989 - 04/10/2018 10:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8573
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The big rains already fell where needed, W NSW was only forecast to get 5-10mm for the event yet there's already been 35-40mm on the first day.

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#1471992 - 04/10/2018 11:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
We need 250 mms here to fill creeks and dams.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1471993 - 04/10/2018 11:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8573
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Time will tell whether there's a fall that big, not sure if any of the models are indicating it - but if the low does sit offshore for at least 48 hrs and drifts further north it's certainly possible.

Either way this is the best set-up you could ask for (outside a tropical depression), prefrontal storms followed by the wrap around rain as the low forms, and widespread too.

Next wave of rain about to hit in the next hour or so.

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#1471996 - 04/10/2018 12:51 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2839
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm

since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.




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#1471999 - 04/10/2018 13:31 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 53
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm

since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.






I'd love to see that purple come off. Sydney (OH at least, maybe other sites have but I haven't checked) hasn't had a 100+ day since April 2015 when there were two consecutive days of over 100mms. That was certainly the heaviest rain I can remember Sydney having.

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#1472000 - 04/10/2018 13:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looks like a heavy drop went through here.
https://www.facebook.com/ABCBrokenHill/videos/303540923809652/
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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