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#1472001 - 04/10/2018 13:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
Looks like pretty widespread rain expected next Tuesday to Thursday as well and possibly beyond.

Not a whole heap of rain here, it's pretty light and the clouds are very white and lack any ominous look to them. But showers weren't supposed to pick up til evening anyway here.
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#1472002 - 04/10/2018 13:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you CS22.

---

The rain has resumed in the last half hour or so, a bit heavier than this morning. Looks like more on the way. Still fairly modest falls, maybe a millimetre or two per hour.

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#1472003 - 04/10/2018 13:51 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like pretty widespread rain expected next Tuesday to Thursday as well and possibly beyond.

Not a whole heap of rain here, it's pretty light and the clouds are very white and lack any ominous look to them. But showers weren't supposed to pick up til evening anyway here.


And beyond if GFS Ext has it's way - another deep low traversing the SE corner. Lovely stuff.

Decent stuff here this morning - 5mm, added to the 3mm overnight and we're heading towards 10mm for the event so far and the heaviest rain & acton isn't supposed to arrive til later tonight when the Low (if it does) gets going.

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#1472004 - 04/10/2018 14:14 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
00z has really backed off on ACCESSR. frown
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#1472006 - 04/10/2018 14:28 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not surprising find that happens once an event starts.

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#1472007 - 04/10/2018 14:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
We are under a very nice light to moderate rain band, that appears to be almost stationary atm. Rain to date here for this event is 13mm.

This is what is needed for us and lots of other places, constant light rain, only we need it to hang around for many days to really get some deep penetrating moisture into the soil, fingers crossed.

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#1472009 - 04/10/2018 15:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1806
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Only 4 mms here so far,hopeing things come on big time tonight.
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#1472010 - 04/10/2018 15:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5205
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Nice detailed severe weather warning now out for Sydney and Central Coast. Heavy rain moving onshore from 10pm.

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#1472011 - 04/10/2018 15:57 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Seems I pegged the location this am

15:26 Oct 04 NSW Severe Weather Warning: Heavy Rain. Gosford, Sydney, Parramatta, Wyong, the Entrance, Woy Woy

Details:

NSW Severe Weather Warning: Heavy Rain

For people in parts of Hunter and Metropolitan Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:26 pm Thursday, 4 October 2018.
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT FOR SYDNEY AND THE CENTRAL COAST

Weather Situation: A low pressure system is deepening near to the New South Wales coast tonight in association with an upper cold pool moving across the region. The wind shift associated with the deepening low is likely to push heavier rainfall onto central parts of the coast.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over eastern parts of the Sydney Metropolitan, and in the Central Coast region, later tonight and early Friday. This heavy rainfall is likely to start from about 10pm tonight
12 hour overnight totals in excess of 50mm are likely, with the possibility of localised totals in excess of 100mm.

Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar is occuring over the sea to the east of Sydney. The onshore wind shift associated with the deepening low later tonight is expected to push some of this rainfall onto the coast.

Locations which may be affected include Gosford, Sydney, Parramatta, Wyong, The Entrance and Woy Woy.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

Alert Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Council Resident Options & EWN Support: http://www.ewn.com.au/support/

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#1472012 - 04/10/2018 16:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
First sign of some on-shore rain movement off the Illawarra coast on the radar. Only up to 7mm here, would be hoping for at least 25 by the end of the event!

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#1472014 - 04/10/2018 17:52 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Here comes the se’erly rain, fingers crossed,

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#1472015 - 04/10/2018 18:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Hope someone gets the rouge hundred, that seems very plausible as per the warning. Although this early round of rain have made the soils ready to take up any downpours lowering the risk of flash flooding.
Also it has to be said this is a very good filling event for all of dams with especially the Sydney Catchment taking in a lot of rainfall.


Edited by ashestoashes (04/10/2018 18:08)

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#1472017 - 04/10/2018 18:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You can see the vorticity on radar and satpic now as the se’erley flow starts to get wrapped into the developing low. Hopefully that heavy stuff just off the coast rolls over soon, if it does 50mm is not out of realms of possibility.

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#1472020 - 04/10/2018 18:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Another thing to note are the SST's being about 2-3C warmer than avg just off the coast where the heaviest falls are forecast so it could certainly aid the totals. Things are about to really start ramping up for Kiama/the Gong, and also the central coast.

There's also a fairly big bulk of rain just behind Singleton moving very slowly, possibly associated with the surface low.

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#1472021 - 04/10/2018 18:35 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Not much so far for the Lower Hunter to now, rain forecast for tomorrow and a very low diurnal temp range of 14-15C.

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#1472024 - 04/10/2018 18:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 87
Is it possible that this low could develop into an ECL?

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#1472025 - 04/10/2018 19:05 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Online   happy
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 517
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
That offshore rain train looks absolutely beautiful. Hope it makes it a bit inland to my area.

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#1472027 - 04/10/2018 19:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Rsav]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Is it possible that this low could develop into an ECL?


Yes, same thing.

Pouring here now!

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#1472028 - 04/10/2018 19:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 986
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Yikes. Eleebana Reservoir on the edges of Lake Macquarie on 110mm for the last hour and 177 mm since 9 am under that rainband over Swansea, south of Newcastle.

If accurate that's some serious rain! shocked


Edited by Perfect Storm (04/10/2018 19:26)
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#1472031 - 04/10/2018 19:29 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Looks accurate, there's a blob of orange sitting on top that hasn't moved

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