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#1472130 - 05/10/2018 17:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not surprising when you check out those anomalies pushing in from the Indian right across Australia over the next 2 weeks.

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#1472133 - 05/10/2018 17:49 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Well, for the coast anyway . But lots can change between now and then. Need my ECL fix😎

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#1472140 - 05/10/2018 18:22 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That next GFS one looks like a classic ECL.

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#1472142 - 05/10/2018 18:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Classic? Would you say the same as April 2015? June 2007? I donít like to use the term ecl lightly. IMO an ecl retrogrades towards coast or moves parallel southward on coast. Multi cored, wobbling. Ah I miss thee.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (05/10/2018 18:46)

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#1472143 - 05/10/2018 18:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I think the issue with this most recent one is the upper low never made it to the coast, so a small surface low formed only.

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#1472144 - 05/10/2018 18:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
AccessG doesnít have a low. Early days yet tho.

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#1472147 - 05/10/2018 19:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I wouldn't say that event hinted on GFS is very much like this one, because it is a cold pool that pops up around victoria not really a widespread event, just mainly East of the dividing range event. Also it's quite unlikely for a 540 to pop up here in October. The event that is a follow up is more like on EC from the 13 and 14th as a heat trough dips into a 546 peak around South Australia that should move into the state fed by a Northeasterly from a HPS.

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#1472159 - 05/10/2018 20:46 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Low looks to be intensifying? And maybe slowly moving SW? Some heavy rain from Seal Rocks to the Barringtons.

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#1472160 - 05/10/2018 20:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 54
Loc: Taree, Nsw
For me here in North Taree, the last few hours have marked the definitive period of reasonable rain activity out of the whole event. There is some some lightning activity coming in as well. The low seems to have migrated up here and now looks to be on a very slight SW back track as you say - and appears intensified.

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#1472168 - 05/10/2018 23:02 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kino
Pretty sure that the escarpment would have at least got 75mm overnight, possibly more between Wollongong and Sydney.


My Pleasant, very close to me and where the M1 goes over the dividing range, scored 77mm.

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#1472189 - 06/10/2018 09:03 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Mcbobbings]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
If OH doesn't get above its current maximum of 15.6 today marks the coldest October day in 9 years. Falls have not been quite so spectacular today, with a range of 0 at Badgerys Creek all the way up to 12.2mm at Terry Hills for the metro. Looks like some light showers coming with a SE wind, and the heavy stuff about 100km off to sea.


Looks like it got to 15.7 - still qualify?

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#1472193 - 06/10/2018 09:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
If OH doesn't get above its current maximum of 15.6 today marks the coldest October day in 9 years. Falls have not been quite so spectacular today, with a range of 0 at Badgerys Creek all the way up to 12.2mm at Terry Hills for the metro. Looks like some light showers coming with a SE wind, and the heavy stuff about 100km off to sea.


Looks like it got to 15.7 - still qualify?


I donít think OH got to 15.7, that was the airport. Weatherzone has had OH stuck on 13.9c for the past two or 3 days. Looking at BOM it stayed below 15.6, making it the coldest in 9 years. No 9am reset either.

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#1472196 - 06/10/2018 10:09 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney OH temperatures for the last two days:

Oct 4: 16.2 - 16.5
Oct 5: 14.3 - 15.6

That's probably the coldest pair of October maxima in a while. Yesterday's max was the coldest in October since 3/10/2009 (when 15.2). Last October's coldest maximum was 19.6. We are having a different kind of Spring this year.

The rain continues in Sydney's East, but it's not penetrating far inland, barely making it to the outer Western suburbs. OH has a further 29 mm to 9:00, Chatswood 28, Bankstown 4.


Edited by Steve777 (06/10/2018 10:15)

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#1472198 - 06/10/2018 10:32 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
I think it's a bit too early to guarantee what will happen in next week's event. There's so much going on with the cold pool as A2A said and also pockets of warm air being brought south with the low. Depends on how the 500mb temps line up as well as to how much instability and rainfall there is. Every time I check GFS it keeps changing with each model run which gives an idea of the uncertainty too. Thursday's model runs now so very little rain on the coast but the cold air is back in the forecast with 850mb temps of -3 on the CT's which is cold enough for snow if there is moisture.


Edited by Wave Rider (06/10/2018 10:36)
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#1472229 - 06/10/2018 16:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Stormbird is going off again, so it was right the last 2 times!

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#1472233 - 06/10/2018 17:16 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
BoM have really upgraded rain tomorrow for Newcastle. From 70%. 2-10 mm to 95% 6-20mm. Access and EC still have the weak low moving back to the central coast tomorrow.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (06/10/2018 17:17)

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#1472242 - 06/10/2018 19:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC has upgraded today giving us in Illawarra up to 80mm over Sunday / early Mon with heavy falls for Metro too!

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#1472243 - 06/10/2018 19:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
EC has upgraded today giving us in Illawarra up to 80mm over Sunday / early Mon with heavy falls for Metro too!


Looks like that little surface low swings back towards the coast.

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#1472247 - 06/10/2018 23:07 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
See Barrington Tops has had 300mm from this trough/low!

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#1472248 - 07/10/2018 00:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1806
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I have measured 20 mms
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