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#1472258 - 07/10/2018 09:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 601
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
The sun is breaking out here atm. I just emptied 5.5mm out of the gauge, so the total for the event here was/is 69mm, a tasty amount considering how piss poor the rainfall has been around here over the last 15 months.

Now lets see what the next week brings, some decent follow up rain would be nice. Bring on a ECL.

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#1472262 - 07/10/2018 10:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 56
Loc: Bowral
Big downgrade for the Wed/Thurs system. Rainfall on all models not really exceeding 10mm for most areas. Still time for an upgrade though!

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#1472269 - 07/10/2018 11:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Holy heck at GFS EXT tho! If that comes off thatíll surely push NSW towards relieving the drought.

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#1472292 - 07/10/2018 16:14 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 629
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Constant drizzle with the odd heavier shower today in Bowral. Feels like more than the 2mm in the BoM gauge.
So far 19mm for the event - ideal in being gentle and spread over several days, but we could use a lot more! I know Sydney folk are over the rain, but we need a few weeks of this - thereís zero run off so far into farm dams.
Looking good later in the week st least, with cold air on the cards too, Dont think itíll snow on the CTs but could be a chance.

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#1472293 - 07/10/2018 16:26 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
This is perfect recovery rain - enough so the soil soaks it up and low evaporation rates. If we get a decent follow up event now, we are on the way to a part recovery. Still 600mm behind average here but itís some hope. Better than the doom & gloom

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#1472297 - 07/10/2018 17:01 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
October in Sydney looks likely to become a now very rare cooler than average month. Looking at the forecast, the average maximum at Sydney OH for the first 14 days of October will be 19.6, about 1.3 colder than September and 0.3 colder than July. The average minimum would be about 13.3. This compares to a long term (since 1859) average of 13.6 to 22.2 and a recent (1981-2010) average of 14.4 to 22.8.

Assuming that the forecast is correct, to make the average maximum, the second half of October would have to be quite warm, averaging around 24.3. No big ask compared to recent years, but it would require a major flip in the pattern, which I think is unlikely. Those highs have shifted South and will probably mostly stay there for a while. This month actually looks a bit like the (in)famous December 2011.

-----

Light rain on and off all day, only amounting to 4 mm at Chatswood. That makes an event total of 94 mm.

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#1472299 - 07/10/2018 17:21 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
October in Sydney looks likely to become a now very rare cooler than average month. Looking at the forecast, the average maximum at Sydney OH for the first 14 days of October will be 19.6, about 1.3 colder than September and 0.3 colder than July. The average minimum would be about 13.3. This compares to a long term (since 1859) average of 13.6 to 22.2 and a recent (1981-2010) average of 14.4 to 22.8.

Assuming that the forecast is correct, to make the average maximum, the second half of October would have to be quite warm, averaging around 24.3. No big ask compared to recent years, but it would require a major flip in the pattern, which I think is unlikely. Those highs have shifted South and will probably mostly stay there for a while. This month actually looks a bit like the (in)famous December 2011.

-----

Light rain on and off all day, only amounting to 4 mm at Chatswood. That makes an event total of 94 mm.


Nice work Steve, interesting the significant differences between the overall avg and the 1971 one.

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#1472323 - 07/10/2018 20:01 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting line of showers moving in associated with the outer bandings of the low. Looks to be aiming up the Metro & Illawarra coasts. Hopefully it fattens up - could be some gusty winds with it too.

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#1472325 - 07/10/2018 20:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Alternated between dry spells, drizzle and at times heavier showers today. We've just had another one.
3rd day in a row that we haven't reached 17 deg's here. I don't mind that because I see the heat is building in Central Aus and it will eventually arrive.

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#1472326 - 07/10/2018 20:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The radar looks amazing. The rotation on the NE quadrant almost looks tornadoish.

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#1472327 - 07/10/2018 20:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
The radar looks amazing. The rotation on the NE quadrant almost looks tornadoish.


Agree, almost a hook developing!

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#1472331 - 07/10/2018 21:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I love the spin of the low off the Central coast,it is like a cyclone
_________________________
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1472333 - 07/10/2018 21:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Which way is the centre moving,towards the coast or further out?
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1472335 - 07/10/2018 22:08 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8573
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It'll sit there then move towards the coast. Probably the most defined low i've seen off the coast on both sat pic and radar, a fast 12-24 hour loop would look good for the archives.

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#1472341 - 08/10/2018 00:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Portrait of a Low:

Here is the low pressure system brining all the cloud and rain. It seems to be decaying in place, about 100 km off Sydney, prevented by a blocking high from zipping off to NZ or South to join the Roaring Forties, and unable or unwilling to head North:



The picture is a screenshot from Weatherzone 'Layers' (enhanced infrared) taken about Midnight.

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#1472372 - 08/10/2018 11:45 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Raining here again, moderately too.

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#1472374 - 08/10/2018 12:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4377
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few 'event' totals around Sydney to 12:00 today:

Sydney OH: 93 mm
Chatswood: 102
Bankstown: 62
Parramatta: 95
Penrith: 35
Richmond: 49
Campbelltown: 32
Avalon: 81

It's cool, cloudy and windy with the occasional sunny break.

Anyway, the rain can stop now.

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#1472375 - 08/10/2018 12:53 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2619
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looking at radar, you may not get your wish. Besides we need so much more rain, and anything that does fall now will recharge the streams etc (need more over the BM's for sure)

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#1472377 - 08/10/2018 12:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3184
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Looking at radar, you may not get your wish. Besides we need so much more rain, and anything that does fall now will recharge the streams etc (need more over the BM's for sure)


A break in cloud here at Shellharbour reveals some nice vertical growth with these showers. Steering winds should bring some more in from Sydney southwards to Nowra.

May even pick up a very isolated rumble.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1472391 - 08/10/2018 15:03 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Goodbye little low. You did great!

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